Bills release Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes

Really? I can't imagine teams knocking down Benjamin's door to add 2 million to their cap for a fat WR.

 

That would be the cap had he been claimed but he's a free agent now and can be signed for lower than that.

 

I gave up trying to understand the Dorsett situation.

Whenever he gets on the field its either a giveaway for a run (setting up that huge play action to Dorsett in Miami/Pittsburgh we all know is coming) or he gets to run either a comeback on the sideline or a short WR screen.

I don't understand why he is not used on more deep routes to clear some space as he has the speed. Or on inside routes where he can use his elusiveness. It must be his hands or something. Josh obviously knows what he is doing.

 

Deal possible for Kelvin Benjamin Patriots Cowboys Broncos

 

With hands of granite.

Nope

 

And those numbers still stink.

His prior trending is a job at Footlocker.

 

Andre Holmes was claimed by Denver because they lost Sanders to an Achilles injury today..

 

Dorsett BTW has a 73% catch rate.

 

Worth considering on a 2 year deal so that he'd get a full off-season for 2019 (and hopefully loses weight).

 

Does anybody have a clue what buffalo is doing?

 

Catch rate isn't an indication of hands, for what it's worth.

 

Maybe these 2 weren’t in their long term plans and they want to give WRs like zay jones more opportunity to build rapport with Allen.

 

How is it not? It must have some indication. 0% vs 100%?

 

I don't know. If you assume that bad throws and drops somewhat cancel each other out it is maybe the best approximation to evaluating hands that I can think of. You don't think so ?

Also I guess you can let PFF and all their cohorts adjust the targets for uncatchable passes (and type of pass) to make it a bit more representative.

 

Because it's just targets/receptions. The official stats don't take into account whether a ball was catchable or how difficult the catch would have been. Downfield receivers tend to have the lowest catch rates simply because deep passes are completed at lower rates as a matter of course - it's highly correlated with average depth of target, and team catch rates tend to be highly correlated with one another as well since they're all from the same quarterback(s).

The problem with catch rate is it's nearly impossible to parse whether it's a representation of receiver hands or receiver separation or quarterback accuracy or whatever. Benjamin's average depth of target is 17 yards downfield, in the very top percentiles of the league, which has a lot to do with the lower catch rate (Josh Gordon, who I think we can all agree has tremendous hands, has a catch rate around 50% and an average depth of target of 13 yards. We know that's a result of a lot of throws where Brady and Gordon weren't on the same page after being traded midseason, but the official stats don't take that into account.)

All of this is not to defend Benjamin. His hands are terrible. His drop rate (a better stat) is among the worst in the NFL too and always has been, and the tape of his drops have always been awful.

 

If Kelvin is incredibly lucky he could be this years Michael Floyd and Kenny Britt.

 

Great explanation. Thanks.

Would it be fair to say a high catch rate is indicative of a good receiver but a low catch rate does not necessarily mean a receiver is bad?

 

High catch rates are usually an indication that a receiver is a running back, tight end, or slot receiver who runs short routes more than anything. The ten highest wide receiver catch rates this year are Michael Thomas, Ryan Switzer, Danny Amendola, DJ Moore, Albert Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Cole Beasley, Jarius Wright, Keenan Allen, and Amari Cooper. Leaving aside Thomas, whose absurd catch rate despite being a downfield receiver is an indication of a remarkable player who's on the same page as a remarkable quarterback, almost all of those are slot receivers with short depths of target. There are some good, very good, great, and mediocre receivers in that group.

Tyreek Hill's catch rate is more or less the same as Hogan's and Edelman's, but his ADOT is much higher. Antonio Brown's catch rate is 60%. There are probably conclusions you could draw from each of these stats, but I'm not sure you could get the full scale of Antonio Brown's value by looking at that rate.

That said, Benjamin's was the lowest among qualified receivers with thirty or more targets by like 4 percentage points. His is remarkably low. It's a combination of being a bad, downfield receiver who can't separate or catch with quarterbacks who either have a cannon arm and no touch or no arm to speak of.

 

I'm wondering if Benjamin might be more effective if he spent more time running short/intermediate routes and not the down-the-field variety routes?