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BGC 2022 WR/PTP Thread

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Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Out of the offensive players in the Senior Bowl practices/game, CA3 had the highest max acceleration (5.86 yd/s^2 - yet another crazy stat I learned about today). Overall, he was 8th (which makes sense).



I am a huge fan of cb Taylor of ten. He could be an outside zone guy for us. He needs a ton of coaching and technique work, but his upside could be huge.
 

Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
There's something funny going on with these Combine time splits (supposedly corrected official Electronic times per RAS and Draftscout). 1.41 10yd split for Tyquan Thornton. 1.44 for CAustinIII, 1.45 for CWatson and COlave, 1.46 for Velus, APierce, and SMoore . These don't seem right - insanely historically fast - everyone else in Combine history who ran a 4.31 or lower has run slower than all those times, so I'm leaning towards some funny business. Chris Johnson (RB) was the fastest at 1.4.

If the times are legit ,though, it's interesting that Slade Bolden despite the slow 40 actually had a pretty fast 10yd split (1.52 - same as JEdelman. Jakobi's is pretty decent at 1.55. As reference: Danny Gray and Marquise 4.27 Goodwin posted 1.51 and RuggsIII 1.54).

Others of note were Woolen at 1.47 and Nick Cross / ZyonMc / PButler at 1.46.

Does this all matter? Probably not too much. Kupp had 1.62/4.62. That being said, a .05 second difference for a very conservative 14mph that one would reach at 10yds is a difference of 12 inches.

Note that the following is all just really trivial stuff as far as whether or not a player's gonna be successful, but the difference in milliseconds gets ingrained to the population for the rest of someone's career that imho, it's important to note the differences, especially since a .05 can mean the difference of a round when someone's drafted or from being a UDFA to getting into the 7th (or higher).

Per Zybek's website:
For fully automated timing (football specific), a sensor is placed at the start line 1 inch above the ground and at the 40 yard line at 30 inches from the ground. For the 40-yard dash test, the athlete will be in a 3-point stance with one hand on the start line thus blocking the start sensor. When the athlete’s hand is lifted as they begin running, the electronic timing system automatically starts. When the athlete passes through the finish (and ultimately the 40-yard sensor) this will automatically stop the timing system.

Interesting stuff. Sounds like this may be the best that they can do and there probably aren't any shenanigans with this year's times, but man there is still some variability (and hence gaming that can be done) with this setup. With someone like Thornton's femur length being ~21", and taking account angles, we're talking maybe difference of ~.05s at 23mph (405" per sec) between the knee crossing and the junk crossing. In Jakobi's case during his 4.63 (peaking let's say at 21mph), his foot landing just before the sensor couldn't be any worse and probably cost him around .05s compared to if he crossed it with a flying (Sagat) knee like Thornton. Someone with flailing arms could also probably trigger the sensor. Also, I wonder if whistle/scout guy Mark Gorscak watches out for people holding their hand on the ground (pawing back like a cheetah) blocking the sensor while they're moving forward a foot plus.

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One-If-By-Sea

In the Starting Line-Up
Note that the following is all just really trivial stuff as far as whether or not a player's gonna be successful, but the difference in milliseconds gets ingrained to the population for the rest of someone's career that imho, it's important to note the differences, especially since a .05 can mean the difference of a round when someone's drafted or from being a UDFA to getting into the 7th (or higher).

Per Zybek's website:
For fully automated timing (football specific), a sensor is placed at the start line 1 inch above the ground and at the 40 yard line at 30 inches from the ground. For the 40-yard dash test, the athlete will be in a 3-point stance with one hand on the start line thus blocking the start sensor. When the athlete’s hand is lifted as they begin running, the electronic timing system automatically starts. When the athlete passes through the finish (and ultimately the 40-yard sensor) this will automatically stop the timing system.

Interesting stuff. Sounds like this may be the best that they can do and there probably aren't any shenanigans with this year's times, but man there is still some variability (and hence gaming that can be done) with this setup. With someone like Thornton's femur length being ~21", and taking account angles, we're talking maybe difference of ~.05s at 23mph (405" per sec) between the knee crossing and the junk crossing. In Jakobi's case during his 4.63 (peaking let's say at 21mph), his foot landing just before the sensor couldn't be any worse and probably cost him around .05s compared to if he crossed it with a flying (Sagat) knee like Thornton. Someone with flailing arms could also probably trigger the sensor. Also, I wonder if whistle/scout guy Mark Gorscak watches out for people holding their hand on the ground (pawing back like a cheetah) blocking the sensor while they're moving forward a foot plus.

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I would imagine the same system is used as in Track and Field. T&F figured out how to avoid arms and knees from triggering the system that is why you see track athletes sticking out their chests at the finish line. I am not familiar with how the NFL system works but why wouldn't the Combine copy a known proven system?

Nice shot of Jakobi and his lack of "a lean". I agree that it seems to cost him some time like you mention.
 

Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
I would imagine the same system is used as in Track and Field. T&F figured out how to avoid arms and knees from triggering the system that is why you see track athletes sticking out their chests at the finish line. I am not familiar with how the NFL system works but why wouldn't the Combine copy a known proven system?

Nice shot of Jakobi and his lack of "a lean". I agree that it seems to cost him some time like you mention.
The combine uses a basic Break-beam timing system (thanks Wiki for the official term) that even Zybek says is "similar to a garage door sensor," while track for the most part requires some type of camera system (typically "Line Scan") taking super narrow images of the finish line 100 to 1000 times a second. Curious to see if Zybek uses a single beam or a dual beam system, which may account for the arms/knees. If anyone has trouble sleeping, feel free to read/watch the below, and it'll knock you right out:

(EDIT: From a thesis by Volz in 2019, the Powerdash 3x which they use in the Combine supposedly uses a single beam and that, "the time measurement difference between single beam and double beam systems has been found to be minimal with a +/- 0.06 second difference" - Haugen, Tonnessen, Svendsen, & Seiler, 2014. That's in line with my calculations.)


 
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One-If-By-Sea

In the Starting Line-Up
The combine uses a basic Break-beam timing system (thanks Wiki for the official term) that even Zybek says is "similar to a garage door sensor," while track for the most part requires some type of camera system (typically "Line Scan") taking super narrow images of the finish line 100 to 1000 times a second. Curious to see if Zybek uses a single beam or a dual beam system, which may account for the arms/knees. If anyone has trouble sleeping, feel free to read/watch the below, and it'll knock you right out:

(EDIT: From a thesis by Volz in 2019, the Powerdash 3x which they use in the Combine supposedly uses a single beam and that, "the time measurement difference between single beam and double beam systems has been found to be minimal with a +/- 0.06 second difference - Haugen, Tonnessen, Svendsen, & Seiler, 2014. That's in line with my calculations.)



Thanks Jim, I guess "minimal" means something different to Volz than to me. At +/- 0.06 seconds, if a college athlete ran a 4.40 sec 40 yard dash, the readout could be 4.34 (- 0.06) or 4.46 (+ 0.06). I think a 4.34 versus 4.46 40 would effect draft position. Sticking your arm out might help trigger the single beam I guess. The NFL is not poor, no idea why they would not use the gold standard already established in Track & Field.
 

Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Thanks Jim, I guess "minimal" means something different to Volz than to me. At +/- 0.06 seconds, if a college athlete ran a 4.40 sec 40 yard dash, the readout could be 4.34 (- 0.06) or 4.46 (+ 0.06). I think a 4.34 versus 4.46 40 would effect draft position. Sticking your arm out might help trigger the single beam I guess. The NFL is not poor, no idea why they would not use the gold standard already established in Track & Field.
"Maybe we could have a bake sale to raise some money for the cameras. We could do a car wash." -BB
 

Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Note that the following is all just really trivial stuff as far as whether or not a player's gonna be successful, but the difference in milliseconds gets ingrained to the population for the rest of someone's career that imho, it's important to note the differences, especially since a .05 can mean the difference of a round when someone's drafted or from being a UDFA to getting into the 7th (or higher).

Per Zybek's website:
For fully automated timing (football specific), a sensor is placed at the start line 1 inch above the ground and at the 40 yard line at 30 inches from the ground. For the 40-yard dash test, the athlete will be in a 3-point stance with one hand on the start line thus blocking the start sensor. When the athlete’s hand is lifted as they begin running, the electronic timing system automatically starts. When the athlete passes through the finish (and ultimately the 40-yard sensor) this will automatically stop the timing system.

Interesting stuff. Sounds like this may be the best that they can do and there probably aren't any shenanigans with this year's times, but man there is still some variability (and hence gaming that can be done) with this setup. With someone like Thornton's femur length being ~21", and taking account angles, we're talking maybe difference of ~.05s at 23mph (405" per sec) between the knee crossing and the junk crossing. In Jakobi's case during his 4.63 (peaking let's say at 21mph), his foot landing just before the sensor couldn't be any worse and probably cost him around .05s compared to if he crossed it with a flying (Sagat) knee like Thornton. Someone with flailing arms could also probably trigger the sensor. Also, I wonder if whistle/scout guy Mark Gorscak watches out for people holding their hand on the ground (pawing back like a cheetah) blocking the sensor while they're moving forward a foot plus.

Last post on this I hope. Getting really disillusioned by the way the 40 is being timed. Did some frame by frame analysis on youtube (30p video so .033s per frame), and I'm finding people are starting to move on average .167s before their hand/arm clears the sensor. Some clear it really fast (maybe .1s - someone's former roommate), and some are just rolling for .3s before they officially start moving (like some guy who ran in the 4.2x).

Also, if someone runs a 4.33, that means 4.33*30=130 frames back from when they finished. Usually, this resulting frame ends up being WAY after they started. Too many shenanigans. Hopefully, I'm not doing something wrong (or just ignorant regarding what's done to make an unofficial time official or an issue with the video), but I've also looked at different videos making sure each frame is distinct, including some 60p ones. I really really wish YoutubeTV had frame advance/reverse as it has very clear 60p video.

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Another way I'm checking times is recording Youtube TV in .25x speed in Quicktime screen recording and using the Trim feature to find the hundredths of a second (no one says centisecond?) of when they started and when the torso crossed the line, then do all the calcs from there. To use Calvin Austin III as an example, I'm finding from the time he first moves to when the torso crosses, it's ~4.56s. If I'm being generous and do it from when he pushes off, it's ~4.48s. This is clearly way different from his 4.32. Analyzing a 1x speed video results in pretty much the same result.

I don't see them changing anything. Fast times are secksy. If I were to coach someone to run the combine, I think I could get an extra (or make sure they don't lose) .15s easy just from gaming it by practicing optimization with the Zybek.
 

FredFromDartmouth

In the Starting Line-Up
I saw in today's Herald that Karen Guregian has Bo Melton going in the 4th or 5th round. Sorry, Karen I disagree. I think he is round 2 or 3. These prognosticators need actually look at film instead of parroting back other mock drafts; Bo is exactly what the Patriots need, and I would not be upset if they took him in round 3 or even 2. I know you guys are screaming at this, but watch his tape. The one drawback I see is that he was not up against SEC CBs so it is a bit hard to evaluate him.

Let's go Bo!
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
I saw in today's Herald that Karen Guregian has Bo Melton going in the 4th or 5th round. Sorry, Karen I disagree. I think he is round 2 or 3. These prognosticators need actually look at film instead of parroting back other mock drafts; Bo is exactly what the Patriots need, and I would not be upset if they took him in round 3 or even 2. I know you guys are screaming at this, but watch his tape. The one drawback I see is that he was not up against SEC CBs so it is a bit hard to evaluate him.

Let's go Bo!

There's NFW I would Ever take Melton on Day 2... There'll be other, better WRs still available, even at 85.
 

FredFromDartmouth

In the Starting Line-Up
Yeah, he's closer to round 7 than round 2
I am standing by my prediction. Bo goes on Day 2. We shall see. Of course if I am wrong, and he goes in round 7, say, to the Jets, then I will say that they got the steal of the draft and in a few years I will be proved right. By that time everyone will have forgotten my preposterous prognostication and I can slink away and go back to my dark corner on the internet.

BTW, I really want the Patriots to draft a small, quick guy like Bo-Mel, Robinson, or Calvin Austin III; they would drive the larger CBs nuts. I like all three of these guys for Day 2.
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I am standing by my prediction. Bo goes on Day 2. We shall see. Of course if I am wrong, and he goes in round 7, say, to the Jets, then I will say that they got the steal of the draft and in a few years I will be proved right. By that time everyone will have forgotten my preposterous prognostication and I can slink away and go back to my dark corner on the internet.

BTW, I really want the Patriots to draft a small, quick guy like Bo-Mel, Robinson, or Calvin Austin III; they would drive the larger CBs nuts. I like all three of these guys for Day 2.

I agree with you. He needs a bit of projection because the qb play was so terrible. But his tape shows him open a ton. And his speed is legit!
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Yeah, he's closer to round 7 than round 2

He's a solid 5th-round value I feel; I would have no problem taking him at 158 or 170, depending on who else is also available naturally, and at what positions... It also wouldn't shock to see him taken earlier on Day 3, but this class is so deep that he might get a little lost in the shuffle...
 

FredFromDartmouth

In the Starting Line-Up
I am standing by my prediction. Bo goes on Day 2. We shall see. Of course if I am wrong, and he goes in round 7, say, to the Jets, then I will say that they got the steal of the draft and in a few years I will be proved right. By that time everyone will have forgotten my preposterous prognostication and I can slink away and go back to my dark corner on the internet.

BTW, I really want the Patriots to draft a small, quick guy like Bo-Mel, Robinson, or Calvin Austin III; they would drive the larger CBs nuts. I like all three of these guys for Day 2.
I am standing by my projection of BoMel as third or even second round pick. However, I need to amend my projection on Metchie; he is a good WR with great intangibles; round 2? I prefer the smaller, quick guys like BoMel, Calvin Austin III and Robinson; these guy wil drive the currently-fashionable, big CB in the NFL crazy. I am not so keen on the bigger, slower WRs....Treylon Burks being a prime example.

Speaking of which how about George Pickens? His combine numbers are not great, and he did not do the 3-cone drill, but he is a live wire on the field. He is also egotistical and obnoxious; not a good fit for the Patriots but perfect for the Cowboys. He is guaranteed to really aggravate defensive backs. He is fun to watch.
 

Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
I saw in today's Herald that Karen Guregian has Bo Melton going in the 4th or 5th round. Sorry, Karen I disagree. I think he is round 2 or 3. These prognosticators need actually look at film instead of parroting back other mock drafts; Bo is exactly what the Patriots need, and I would not be upset if they took him in round 3 or even 2. I know you guys are screaming at this, but watch his tape. The one drawback I see is that he was not up against SEC CBs so it is a bit hard to evaluate him.

Let's go Bo!
Interesting things to me about this guy.
1) Dad Gary (and Mom) also went to Rutgers and signed as a UDFA for the Redskins but never made it.
2) Bo went to Rutgers to stay close to home. Got 26 scholarship offers and had Oregon and Ohio State in his final 3.
3) Drumming since he was 2. As a musician/percussionist, I appreciate someone who has good rhythm, given its importance in running/sprinting.
4) Seems like a quality dude - leadership skills/etc.
5) Injured his shoulder after an INT by the QB. Wonder what his production would've been if he went to someplace like OSU. Only other guy of note on offense is 4.37 RB Isaih Pacheco (former QB in HS - never heard of him as I didn't follow anyone besides WRs and someone has him mocked to the Pats in R6).
 
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captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Speaking of which how about George Pickens? His combine numbers are not great, and he did not do the 3-cone drill, but he is a live wire on the field. He is also egotistical and obnoxious; not a good fit for the Patriots but perfect for the Cowboys. He is guaranteed to really aggravate defensive backs. He is fun to watch.

I want nothing whatsoever to do with Pickens unless he's available with one of our 5th-rounders and we've already drafted a WR.
 

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