DRAFT BGC 2021 Pre-Draft/Patriot-Type Prospect(s) thread

[captain stone]

Jackson Carman just lost himself some money, because teams will now consider him as more a Guard than Tackle...

 

[captain stone]

I'm assuming you're asking how I'd counter Simms?

Very easily

First things first. Simms is very knowledgeable, a lot more than me. He could teach me X&O's for days. Unfortunately that doesn't make one great at prospect evaluation.

1)Simms seems to be forgetting that he had Josh Allen as QB1 a few years ago. A two year project with more than a few issues. Also Lance threw for more passes than Allen did in their final years. They both played weak comp but Lance put up a 66% comp rating (10 points higher than Allen) & a 28/0! TD/INT ratio.

So Simms is simply contradicting himself here and looks way off.

2)Lance isn't a "natural thrower"? Nonsense, absolute trash. What do you want to see? Touch, placement, velocity? Mechanics, footwork, pocket presence? Ability to work from under center? How about them all?

Not a "natural thrower"? Let's leave opinion out of this shall we?










I'll post a few more clips but the idea that Lance isn't a natural passer or a pocket passer and a very good one is wrong.

His mechanics are as good as anyone in the class. They can get a little messy at times but everyone does at times but consistently he's really good. And a big worker in this area. Feet are firing, usually always balanced putting him in a good spot. Front shoulder stays tight for the most part. Moves a little but he's always working on it.

Poise, feel and pocket presence are as good as it gets. He looks like a teach tape for movement with his feet and base moving him around and keeping him balanced. Really nice feel and all around vision to step up, slide, manipulate a pocket or just create a new platform. Never panics.

Arm talent is as good as anyone in the class. Probably the strongest. At times nice touch, placement and accuracy. Far hash, deep corner/post, touch on short stuff has all been displayed. He needs to work on timing and anticipation a little but he's 20. I mean at some point that has to really be brought up again. He's not close to his final form.

Play making ability is crazy Ken. Scrambling, designed runs, power-the kid is a pick-up truck at 6'3 225. He's built for today's game but can absolutely beat you in the pocket and prefers to. He wants to win that way. Short, intermediate, deep, he can work all areas.

His toughness and leadership can't be overstated. The past year he's been working with Q Avery who's been working with Watson and other QB's to get better. You hear him speak today and he talks about treating others right. He's been working out with his Dad since he was a kid. Always had that competition with his younger bro who will be starting at Bama next year.

He absolutely has to work on some things and clean them up but let's not pretend that Lawrence doesn't either. Lance has started as many games as Mac Jones. Has more pass attempts than Josh Allen and played as weak comp as Zach Wilson yet you don't really hear those things brought up about them?

For instance I've been talking about how Wilson & Lance have to work on progressing through the MOF and working certain concepts in that area for months. I've only heard maybe one person from the media bring that up and their still somewhat of an amateur & like 21 (follow Ben Solak). So while Simms and others know their stuff pertaining to certain aspects of the game sometimes their just wrong and looking for attention. The concerns are there with Lance, like they are with Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, & Fields but he's wrong in the above analysis.

I have a 3rd on Mond. I wouldn't mind him in the 3rd or 4th. His biggest issues going forward are pocket presence and in 4 years and it hasn't really improved. Slow coming off his reads. Can't find his hot route or really figure it out under pressure. Really nice arm talent. At times nice accuracy and placement but inconsistent. I think he could be a good back up but who knows.

I Love watching football played on baseball fields!

 

[captain stone]

@patfanken A little more on Lance





The above clips of Dak are to help open up his hips but also and maybe more importantly. It's a repetition rep to help keep that front shoulder tight. Lance gets a little loose at times but he's clearly been practicing


He's been working with Quincy Avery (QB coach) since last fall I believe. Specifically on mechanics & movements.


Also

Has Quincey Avery ever worked with a traditional QB?

 

[patfanken]

57643131998210[/MEDIA]

So basically you are telling me that there is NO chance that Lance will even close to being there at 15 and that he'll likely go in the top 7 and I would be very much against giving up that much draft capital this year to move that high too many other needs right now. I appreciate your case for Trey Lance. Very persuasive. However I go through this every draft season for the last 20 years. Watching draft experts talking about all the great players that will be gone before the Pats pick. Very depressing. Even this year with a #15 pick, draft season is only marginally more interesting, We need to concentrate more on players likely be there when we draft.

Is there a QB out there who you think might be there at 15 and you are excited about, say Mac Jones? A guy I'm vey ambivalent about. Isn't there better value to pick a LB or DT where we would be picking a top 2 selection at the position rather than the #5 or 6 QB or WR

 

[Love The Drake]

So basically you are telling me that there is NO chance that Lance will even close to being there at 15 and that he'll likely go in the top 7 and I would be very much against giving up that much draft capital this year to move that high too many other needs right now. I appreciate your case for Trey Lance. Very persuasive. However I go through this every draft season for the last 20 years. Watching draft experts talking about all the great players that will be gone before the Pats pick. Very depressing. Even this year with a #15 pick, draft season is only marginally more interesting, We need to concentrate more on players likely be there when we draft.

Is there a QB out there who you think might be there at 15 and you are excited about, say Mac Jones? A guy I'm vey ambivalent about. Isn't there better value to pick a LB or DT where we would be picking a top 2 selection at the position rather than the #5 or 6 QB or WR

If Trey Lance is the guy you do what you have to do to get in the top 10.
Or I’m ok with Kellen Mond or Mills in the middle rounds.

 

[upstater1]

Trade up to #7 and take either Lance or Fields.

They'll all be gone by the Panthers at #8.

Or the Panthers might trade up.

A really good QB is worth 2 #1s. That's what the Bills paid for Josh Allen.

 

[Love The Drake]

Trade up to #7 and take either Lance or Fields.

They'll all be gone by the Panthers at #8.

Or the Panthers might trade up.

A really good QB is worth 2 #1s. That's what the Bills paid for Josh Allen.

We might be able to save the first and package Gilmore to a team or trade Gilmore to a different team to make help recoup a pick.
I think it depends what we do in free agency D line Linenacker WR TE need major upgrades.
I’m really curious to see how this plays out. We have a solid number 2 or borderline starter QB in Newton we have what appears to be dead weight in Stidham and Dolega. A trade for Jimmy G would be really disrespectful to Cam but make us a better team so I’m all for it.
I’ve been banging the Lance drum for a bit.
I’m of the belief we need at least 2 maybe 3 new WRs and a quality starting tight end.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@BaconGrundleCandy - You're starting to piss me off royally. I had no idea Lance was THIS good, and now you've gotten my hopes up that somehow NE will land him, when I think we all know that it won't happen. So I'll see some other team get to develop him into a total stud. I wish you'd have not gotten me all excited about this guy because it's going to be such a huge letdown when they inevitably don't get him.

(In all seriousness, you're doing great work here.)

It's happens every year with multiple positions lol. You'll fall in love with some prospect and by the time the draft rolls around you're watching him put on another jersey.

In all seriousness I think Lance goes 6-10 so we have an outside shot if we really lile him. Tiny chance he falls past 10 but yea he's really good and seems like a good kid which is just as important. I could totally see Bill schooling him in the film room like that clip we always see of Brady & Bill talking about Reed. Lance wants to be that guy. Also and this really isn't a big deal but I get the feeling he really wants to be a good role model for his younger bro along with a little rivalry. Just another thing that leads me to believe he has his head on straight.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

So basically you are telling me that there is NO chance that Lance will even close to being there at 15 and that he'll likely go in the top 7 and I would be very much against giving up that much draft capital this year to move that high too many other needs right now. I appreciate your case for Trey Lance. Very persuasive. However I go through this every draft season for the last 20 years. Watching draft experts talking about all the great players that will be gone before the Pats pick. Very depressing. Even this year with a #15 pick, draft season is only marginally more interesting, We need to concentrate more on players likely be there when we draft.

Is there a QB out there who you think might be there at 15 and you are excited about, say Mac Jones? A guy I'm vey ambivalent about. Isn't there better value to pick a LB or DT where we would be picking a top 2 selection at the position rather than the #5 or 6 QB or WR

So essentially you're picking a Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, D Carr, Teddy Bridgewater type of QB at 15 if you go with Mac. A guy you can win with, won't make dumb plays & run your system effectively. Now all those guys are very good QB's that have all had some success. Cousins was a top 15 guy for a few years, Jimmy has had decent success with two teams and still would have a job tomorrow. Carr's been a little up & down but he's been reall good at times.

Now would you take any of them at 15?

As for taking a DT that might be DT1 or 2 on the board. Those prospects will still be valued behind a lot of other prospects. And that's where you get in trouble. Drafting for need is ok but you can't reach. Similar to the Mac situation, you're taking a 2nd round player top 15. Ive heard this talk for a while now but again you can't just take a prospect to take one. The value & need have to meet up. Trade back for DL. Maybe Parsons or Collins if we love them.

Like at 15 its all about a QB or getting the BPA where you can't replicate that skill set later in the draft. So again maybe a Parsons or Collins. Maybe a small trade up if a guy like Sewell or Slater falls a little bit. Have you seen Sewell lol? He's an absolute freak and Slater is a nasty technician. OT isn't secured and each looks great plus Slater might be an excellent guard. Or we stay pat for one of the big 3 WR (Chase, Smith, Waddle). Each would instantly change our WR room. On & off the field. Few other options but the value has to line up. It's our highest pick in years and we're starting to rebuild/reload. Basically there's 7-10 worth the pick - get a QB or trade back imo.

If you're looking middle-late rounds. Guys like Mills, Mond, Newman, White in the 3rd-4th or a udfa type

 

[yukon cornelius]

So essentially you're picking a Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, D Carr, Teddy Bridgewater type of QB at 15 if you go with Mac. A guy you can win with, won't make dumb plays & run your system effectively. Now all those guys are very good QB's that have all had some success. Cousins was a top 15 guy for a few years, Jimmy has had decent success with two teams and still would have a job tomorrow. Carr's been a little up & down but he's been reall good at times.

Now would you take any of them at 15?

As for taking a DT that might be DT1 or 2 on the board. Those prospects will still be valued behind a lot of other prospects. And that's where you get in trouble. Drafting for need is ok but you can't reach. Similar to the Mac situation, you're taking a 2nd round player top 15. Ive heard this talk for a while now but again you can't just take a prospect to take one. The value & need have to meet up. Trade back for DL. Maybe Parsons or Collins if we love them.

Like at 15 its all about a QB or getting the BPA where you can't replicate that skill set later in the draft. So again maybe a Parsons or Collins. Maybe a small trade up if a guy like Sewell or Slater falls a little bit. Have you seen Sewell lol? He's an absolute freak and Slater is a nasty technician. OT isn't secured and each looks great plus Slater might be an excellent guard. Or we stay pat for one of the big 3 WR (Chase, Smith, Waddle). Each would instantly change our WR room. On & off the field. Few other options but the value has to line up. It's our highest pick in years and we're starting to rebuild/reload. Basically there's 7-10 worth the pick - get a QB or trade back imo.

If you're looking middle-late rounds. Guys like Mills, Mond, Newman, White in the 3rd-4th or a udfa type

do you place any stock in those that have Mond on the rise, as high as 2nd rd/QB6?

 

[patfanken]

So essentially you're picking a Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, D Carr, Teddy Bridgewater type of QB at 15 if you go with Mac. A guy you can win with, won't make dumb plays & run your system effectively. Now all those guys are very good QB's that have all had some success. Cousins was a top 15 guy for a few years, Jimmy has had decent success with two teams and still would have a job tomorrow. Carr's been a little up & down but he's been reall good at times.

That certainly sounds like what we had for about the first ten years of Brady. However in my evaluation of QB;s I would rate a guy with so called middle of the road arm talent a lot higher if I knew he could process what he sees pre and post snap, identify the hot read, and find options 2 and 3. It also wouldn't hurt if he were also psychotically competitive , because that's what we had in Tom Brady coming in. It was Brady's competitiveness that turned him into a "strong armed guy" after coming into the league as being perceived as a mediocre arm talent. He turned himself into a big armed QB, when it had been thought you were what you were as far as arm talent went.

So if one was convinced that Jones was a guy who can process the field quickly and was insanely competetive willint to whatever is necessary to win football games, then I'd be OK with Jones at 15. I just don't know that about him. Also I read once where some scout felt that Jones wasn't great a making the first guy miss. That was one of Brady's great skills even early on in his career. I don't give a crap if Jones can't run, but I do care if he can move in the pocket.

BTW- you don't really sound very interested in Mond.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

do you place any stock in those that have Mond on the rise, as high as 2nd rd/QB6?

One thing I learned a while ago I believe to be true is prospects don't really rise or fall. It's just the media comes up with their own consensus and later finds out what teams are feeling. So they're never really up or down, it's just the media is let in on what teams are thinking.

I have a 3rd on him and he barely made that so I'd wait until 3 or 4 for him or Newman or White etc. I'm not taking those guys top 64.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

That certainly sounds like what we had for about the first ten years of Brady.

With respect we have to stop comparing prospects who haven't played to the GOAT imo. We just don't know if what's inside a prospect is the same kind fire, willingness to learn, competitiveness etc that made Brady a living legend.

It describes these perfectly though. I don't think anyone would deny they're accurate, can work concepts/scan the field, make the offense run. Would you take Jimmy, Carr, Cousins, Bridgewater at 15? They can all do the abovementioned? I wouldn't but would in the second bc they have obvious limitations, ceilings.

Also Brady comp 60+% and was throwing for 2/1 TD/INT ratio from 2002 on and set the league on fire in 2007. He was certainly a lot more than "good enough to win with". We won bc of him a few times. I get what you're saying in terms of being a "game manager" type but we can never know if a prospect has what Brady has. Which leads me to ...

However in my evaluation of QB;s I would rate a guy with so called middle of the road arm talent a lot higher if I knew he could process what he sees pre and post snap, identify the hot read, and find options 2 and 3. It also wouldn't hurt if he were also psychotically competitive , because that's what we had in Tom Brady coming in.

It was Brady's competitiveness that turned him into a "strong armed guy" after coming into the league as being perceived as a mediocre arm talent. He turned himself into a big armed QB, when it had been thought you were what you were as far as arm talent went.

So if one was convinced that Jones was a guy who can process the field quickly and was insanely competetive willint to whatever is necessary to win football games, then I'd be OK with Jones at 15. I just don't know that about him. Also I read once where some scout felt that Jones wasn't great a making the first guy miss. That was one of Brady's great skills even early on in his career. I don't give a crap if Jones can't run, but I do care if he can move in the pocket.

This is why evaluation is incredibly difficult!! Incredibly and why I encourage and ask people to dive into rankings, big boards etc even hold me accountable with mine. Those that actually do it consistently only have a little piece of the puzzle and are asked to put the puzzle together-whole. Not easy.

Again we just don't know if what's inside these prospects, young adults, is the right stuff. We're getting glimpses into young adults but mostly judging off film and gathering information.

Even teams only have little time with these prospects who are coached up and now it's mostly virtual unless you're at a pro day for a day so almost everyone is on the same playing field. Or it's evened up.

Anyway it's impossible to know if someone is as competitive as Brady or will study like him. Or take care of themselves like him.

More on Mac ...

His footwork gets a little slow, sloppy when under pressure. Not Ryan Mallet quicksand feet but once a situation gets bad it's unlikely he'll recreate or manipulate a pocket. I've also seen him lock onto targets both with his eyes and upper body. Not a killer but again combined with limited mobility and the fact that he hasn't displayed the ability to create outside the confines of the structure-his system it could be problematic. For the most part his movements are fine but again, when things break down. He has trouble. When things are in front of him he can slide, step up just fine. It's turning chaos into new space that's a problem.

Arm talent is good enough. Not a concern but not great. Arm strength is easily improved and again even a slight improvement would help a lot. Again though combined with shoddy footwork this could be tough when throwing against NFL defenders and into NFL tight coverage might be a problem for him of that manifest. Mac can absolutely eat up unaccountable yards but recreating a pocket with NFL defenders flying around, scrambling to buy time etc isn't up his alley. Tough ask.
Another thing that has to be asked is how he'll deal with NFL with consistent NFL pressure if he doesn't have a top tier, top 15/20 OL. People talk about his "weapons" at Bama but the biggest difference in terms of a gap is between their OL and everyone else's DL. Almost all will be drafted, half in the top 100 or so while the other side, even in the SEC is lucky to have one or two a year. That's the norm at Bama. Like I'm already seeing another potential top 15-20 tackle (Evans) for next year. So how will orchestrate or make better a middle of the pack OL?

Lots of easy passes to unbelievable talent. Forget about the talent and pay attention to the types of passes he's making. Some tight windows but mostly on slants and stuff. Timing, bang-bang stuff. You don't see enough of the honey hole shots 30 yards down field. Over a defender 25 yards far hash. Doesn't mean he can't but you didn't see that consistently. His WR's did a lot of the work.

I really like Jones for this system though. It's one of the very few systems he'll work in. He's quick getting the ball out. Quick doing a lot. He took made use of his biggest advantage. Sitting and learning behind elite talent. He mastered the system and was on point in terms of timing, knowing where everyone is supposed to be. Very impressive. He transferred to Bama knowing he wasn't ready, knowing Bama would have talent. Playing time is like 50% of recruiting. If you can promise a kid playing time theres a decent chance he'll choose you. Bama let him stick around bc he had some talent and was ok with not playing. Credit to him bc he made the most of it. He was great in terms of knowing where guys should be but also how a defense would react.

Doesn't panic. Good poise in the pocket for the most part. Good feel for pressure it's dealing with it and making it work that's a problem. Especially up the middle.

Again reminds me of the other guys I mentioned and had a 2nd on. Guys that need top tier protection, targets, perfect scheme/system - OC that really knows his QB. I like Jones just in the 2nd.

BTW- you don't really sound very interested in Mond.

I wouldn't be mad at Mond in the 3rd or 4th. Check out Davis Mills. I have a high grade on him but he won't go that high (2nd). I never just rank guys so sometimes I'll have weird selections and outliers so I just go with it bc it works more often than not. He'll probably go in rounds 3-4 and would also be a great fit here. Him and Mac's trajectory are similar imo. Plus he didn't play at Bama (behind arguably the best OL in the country, best WRs in the country, coaching staff) so he's not being hyped up.

*edit* I know this is a long post but you're used to them lol.

You were interested in the competitiveness, drive of Jones. I have no doubt he's working his butt off. But we know Lance has been working with a QB & OL coach. Getting better at protection calls-feeling what's coming-overall OL relationship, reading a defense and understanding what's in front of him, what could happen. His traits and gifts. Only 20. Just thought this should be mentioned again bc of the stuff you were asking about Mac. Again I'm sure he's working hard. We also know Lance has been working to improve by way of film study, player tendency before hiring these coaches to help him. That work ethic has always been in him.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

This really is an offensive draft. OL, WR are loaded. QB is pretty top heavy. TE looks decent even excluding Pitts. RB looks very good. Just a ton of offensive talent.
CB & LB look very good. DL and S are thin.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I really want us to draft this kid. He is so dynamic. Total playmaker.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]