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BGC 2020 WR'S/PTP Thread

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BaconGrundleCandy, May 27, 2019.

  1. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Florida Man PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Looks like both. It’s a decent list. I wouldn’t argue with any one of Hamler, Reagor, Johnson, or Jefferson.
     
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  2. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not as high on Aiyuk as others. He needs an ideal landing spot imo. QB, creative coach, depth he can hide behind at first. He has a lot of learning to do and Bill doesn't like surprises. He's always leaned stability & what can you do for me now as opposed to later. So I wouldn't mind him after Rd 2 but think he needs a lot to go right to have an instant impact.i have a 3rd on him before testing.

    Johnson & Johnson I want to see run. They're both slot guys so I want to see their shuttle, 3C, 40 etc. 2 of the best R/R in the class but have to make sure they pass some thresholds. I've loved both for years though, esp Tyler. He's a magician releasing off the los. Both early-mid round types depending on testing.

    I've been a huge Mims fans forever too. Fluid big boy that can sell deep but do a ton of work on comebacks/back shoulders. He's been one of the best Ive seen at selling the vertical but always coming back. Better r/r than given credit for Insane body control and catch radius. Prototype X. He'll block his ass off too. I have a 2nd on him

    Hamler might be the toughest tackle once he has the ball. He's incredible but will need the coaches to work him in and make sure he gets his touches if he doesn't have the right QB. Think he's a top 64-75 guy

    Reagor will be a 1st Rd pick imo. I honestly think he has a chance to go very high.

    AGG will need a coach/QB that believe in him. Most QBs will be scared of TO/INT. He needs a great landing spot. I have him with a 3rd before testing.

    I love Hightower. Dude moves on film. Explosive. Little guy but like Ruggs he has long powerful strides. Return man. Track guy so could be a real 4.4 runner but his play speed is real. Good footwork off the los, nice stutter sell on doubles. Seems like he has a good handle on things. Rough environment humble guy. Probably 5th-7th type
     
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  3. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    I don't think BB or Tom will have patience with Hamler because his hands are really questionable along with bad catching technique as shown in the clip below:


    Mock Drafts: Thor's Mock Draft: Day 2 - Fantasy Columns
    What PFF’s analytics say about the 2020 wide receiver prospects
     
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  4. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Pro Bowl Player

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    Hard to predict drop rates from college to NFL. Aaron Dobson had an extremely good catch rate coming out of college. The gauntlet is a drill that shows hands but a fair amount of players with a good trainer can master it if they work on it for 3 months prior every day. Chad Jackson destroyed it so although it is a measurement its not the say all.

    I think a lot of handwork is correctable with the right wr coach and work ethic by the individual.
     
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  5. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    No, catching rate is pretty consistent.

    Actually Dobson hands were only average, and not great, in college which got progressively worse when he became pro.
    aaron_dobson.png
    Aaron Dobson - Player Profile Advanced Football Stats & Metrics

    Also, this is a matter of draft capital. Hamler is projected to be drafted in the second round, and that is high for another inconsistent offensive weapon on this team.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
  6. Gator Mike

    Gator Mike Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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  7. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Pro Bowl Player

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    Really? Because they were pretty darn good in his last season.

    upload_2020-2-27_10-9-49.png
     
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  8. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    What you posted is a drop rate% stat which has injected subjectivity on who rated/decided what is a drop.

    That is the context that has to be analyzed on whether the drop falls on the QB, WR or offensive scheme.

    The one I posted is a simple raw catch rate stat for Aaron Dobson which shows a catch yes/no without the context of drop blame and is a more objective look.

    Dobson's college catch rate stat was more consistent as shown by Aaron Dobson pro-Patriots catch rate%:
    aaron_dobson_patriots.png
    Aaron Dobson Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

    Good receivers will probably have a consistent rate ~65% overall catch rate and good catching technique for the football.

    Hamler has shown neither a consistent catch rate or a good catching technique on the game tapes that I have watched.

    IMO, he is overvalued as 2nd round pick for us as a receiver, but I do think he has speed which could be valuable to the team.
     
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  9. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You're knocking Drop % in regards to subjectivity, but you're holding "Catch Rate" as a holy grail? Bit of hypocrisy there bud.

    That "catch rate" is not the TRUE story and you know it. Unless it's broken down into the different categories such as underthrown, overthrown, thrown OOB, etc, it doesn't tell the whole story. A WR can have a 52% "catch rate" but 46% of the 48% were ones he was never going to get because they were underthrow/overthrown, thrown OOB, defensed, or intercepted.

    If I remember correctly Dobson had all of 2 drops his last two years of college. COMBINED. And yet, he had more drops than that during his year in Pro Ball Career.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
  10. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    Yes, and that my opinion which is not right or wrong. And as far a your example, that has little to do with the subject of Aaron Dobson, KJ Hamler or draft capital invested, and still involves inputting subjectivity context which will always be there in stats; some more than others.

    But that's your opinion which is not right or wrong either, just personal observations just like mine is.
     
  11. oceansizer

    oceansizer Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    After first day of SC Mims, Reagor, John Hightower definitely are the winners. Peiples-Jones' results suggest he is a great athlete as well. His jumping abilities are enormous.
    Somehow I missed Hightower's tapes but I will catch IT up. He looks like very interesting prospect.
     
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  12. Snooky97

    Snooky97 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Justin Jefferson was phenomenal
     
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  13. oceansizer

    oceansizer Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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  14. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Florida Man PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Say goodbye to Ruggs. Not that we had a shot at him anyway. But more than a few GMs just creamed their pants at his 40 time.
     
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  15. oceansizer

    oceansizer Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I will not be surprised if he is off the board as number one WR - even before Jeudy or Lamb.
     
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  16. Peachhead

    Peachhead PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Justin Jefferson or Denzel Mims would be a nice consolation prize.
     
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  17. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    Mims
    Please
     
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  18. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Jefferson and Mims were already top of the WR Big Board I'm doing but jeeez. People will be talking about Mims for a long time. Unbelievable.

    I love the combine. No work this weekend so hoping to make it happen
     
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  19. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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  20. patsrj

    patsrj Practice Squad Player

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    If i had to choose one winner from the wrs it would be Mims. He was great at everything he did.

    Also liked chase Claypool combine results, he is built like Megatron.

    Jeudy and lamb 40 time were a little slower than I expected, but maybe my expectations were too high.
     
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