BGC 2020 WR'S/PTP Thread

[Kontradiction]

He is talking about slot guys or outside guys?

Looks like both. It’s a decent list. I wouldn’t argue with any one of Hamler, Reagor, Johnson, or Jefferson.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Steven Smith Jr (formerly of the Carolina Panthers) says the following are game ready WRs that you don't have to spend a 1st round pick on. I'm curious what you think @BaconGrundleCandy .

Nine instant impact receivers who won't cost a first-round pick

1) Brandon Aiyuk
2) Antonio Gandy-Golden
3) K.J. Hamler
4) John Hightower
5) Tyler Johnson
6) Van Jefferson
7) Denzel Mims
8) Michael Pittman, Jr
9) Jalen Reagor

Based on Smith's takes, I see Hamler, Jefferson and Reagor as guys to watch.

I'm not as high on Aiyuk as others. He needs an ideal landing spot imo. QB, creative coach, depth he can hide behind at first. He has a lot of learning to do and Bill doesn't like surprises. He's always leaned stability & what can you do for me now as opposed to later. So I wouldn't mind him after Rd 2 but think he needs a lot to go right to have an instant impact.i have a 3rd on him before testing.

Johnson & Johnson I want to see run. They're both slot guys so I want to see their shuttle, 3C, 40 etc. 2 of the best R/R in the class but have to make sure they pass some thresholds. I've loved both for years though, esp Tyler. He's a magician releasing off the los. Both early-mid round types depending on testing.

I've been a huge Mims fans forever too. Fluid big boy that can sell deep but do a ton of work on comebacks/back shoulders. He's been one of the best Ive seen at selling the vertical but always coming back. Better r/r than given credit for Insane body control and catch radius. Prototype X. He'll block his ass off too. I have a 2nd on him

Hamler might be the toughest tackle once he has the ball. He's incredible but will need the coaches to work him in and make sure he gets his touches if he doesn't have the right QB. Think he's a top 64-75 guy

Reagor will be a 1st Rd pick imo. I honestly think he has a chance to go very high.

AGG will need a coach/QB that believe in him. Most QBs will be scared of TO/INT. He needs a great landing spot. I have him with a 3rd before testing.

I love Hightower. Dude moves on film. Explosive. Little guy but like Ruggs he has long powerful strides. Return man. Track guy so could be a real 4.4 runner but his play speed is real. Good footwork off the los, nice stutter sell on doubles. Seems like he has a good handle on things. Rough environment humble guy. Probably 5th-7th type

 

[sircole]

I don't think BB or Tom will have patience with Hamler because his hands are really questionable along with bad catching technique as shown in the clip below:

My biggest concern is that Hamler dropped 12 balls on 92 targets last year; his 60.9-percent reception percentage was quite poor. Three targets that went his way were intercepted.

Mock Drafts: Thor's Mock Draft: Day 2 - Fantasy Columns

Hamler let 12 catchable balls hit the deck in 2019 for a drop rate of 16.9% (t-321). Pair that with a below average contested catch rate of 36.4% and you can see why I’d be hesitant on adding the dangerous but inconsistent Penn State product.

What PFF’s analytics say about the 2020 wide receiver prospects

 

[Patriot Missile]

Hard to predict drop rates from college to NFL. Aaron Dobson had an extremely good catch rate coming out of college. The gauntlet is a drill that shows hands but a fair amount of players with a good trainer can master it if they work on it for 3 months prior every day. Chad Jackson destroyed it so although it is a measurement its not the say all.

I think a lot of handwork is correctable with the right wr coach and work ethic by the individual.

 

[sircole]

Hard to predict drop rates from college to NFL. Aaron Dobson had an extremely good catch rate coming out of college. The gauntlet is a drill that shows hands but a fair amount of players with a good trainer can master it if they work on it for 3 months prior every day. Chad Jackson destroyed it so although it is a measurement its not the say all.

I think a lot of handwork is correctable with the right wr coach and work ethic by the individual.

No, catching rate is pretty consistent.

Actually Dobson hands were only average, and not great, in college which got progressively worse when he became pro.

Aaron Dobson - Player Profile Advanced Football Stats & Metrics

Also, this is a matter of draft capital. Hamler is projected to be drafted in the second round, and that is high for another inconsistent offensive weapon on this team.

 

[Gator Mike]

 

[Patriot Missile]

No, catching rate is pretty consistent.

Actually Dobson hands were only average, and not great, in college which got progressively worse when he became pro.
View attachment 26184
Aaron Dobson - Player Profile Advanced Football Stats & Metrics

Also, this is a matter of draft capital. Hamler is projected to be drafted in the second round, and that is high for another inconsistent offensive weapon on this team.

Really? Because they were pretty darn good in his last season.

 

[sircole]

Really? Because they were pretty darn good in his last season.

View attachment 26185

What you posted is a drop rate% stat which has injected subjectivity on who rated/decided what is a drop.

That is the context that has to be analyzed on whether the drop falls on the QB, WR or offensive scheme.

The one I posted is a simple raw catch rate stat for Aaron Dobson which shows a catch yes/no without the context of drop blame and is a more objective look.

Dobson's college catch rate stat was more consistent as shown by Aaron Dobson pro-Patriots catch rate%:

Aaron Dobson Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Good receivers will probably have a consistent rate ~65% overall catch rate and good catching technique for the football.

Hamler has shown neither a consistent catch rate or a good catching technique on the game tapes that I have watched.

IMO, he is overvalued as 2nd round pick for us as a receiver, but I do think he has speed which could be valuable to the team.

 

[DaBruinz]

​

No, catching rate is pretty consistent.

Actually Dobson hands were only average, and not great, in college which got progressively worse when he became pro.
View attachment 26184
Aaron Dobson - Player Profile Advanced Football Stats & Metrics

Also, this is a matter of draft capital. Hamler is projected to be drafted in the second round, and that is high for another inconsistent offensive weapon on this team.

What you posted is a drop rate% stat which has injected subjectivity on who rated/decided what is a drop.

That is the context that has to be analyzed on whether the drop falls on the QB, WR or offensive scheme.

The one I posted is a simple raw catch rate stat for Aaron Dobson which shows a catch yes/no without the context of drop blame and is a more objective look.

Dobson's college catch rate stat was more consistent as shown by Aaron Dobson pro-Patriots catch rate%:
View attachment 26186
Aaron Dobson Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Good receivers will probably have a consistent rate ~65% overall catch rate and good catching technique for the football.

Hamler has shown neither a consistent catch rate or a good catching technique on the game tapes that I have watched.

IMO, he is overvalued as 2nd round pick for us as a receiver, but I do think he has speed which could be valuable to the team.

You're knocking Drop % in regards to subjectivity, but you're holding "Catch Rate" as a holy grail? Bit of hypocrisy there bud.

That "catch rate" is not the TRUE story and you know it. Unless it's broken down into the different categories such as underthrown, overthrown, thrown OOB, etc, it doesn't tell the whole story. A WR can have a 52% "catch rate" but 46% of the 48% were ones he was never going to get because they were underthrow/overthrown, thrown OOB, defensed, or intercepted.

If I remember correctly Dobson had all of 2 drops his last two years of college. COMBINED. And yet, he had more drops than that during his year in Pro Ball Career.

 

[sircole]

You're knocking Drop % in regards to subjectivity, but you're holding "Catch Rate" as a holy grail? Bit of hypocrisy there bud.

That "catch rate" is not the TRUE story and you know it. Unless it's broken down into the different categories such as underthrown, overthrown, thrown OOB, etc, it doesn't tell the whole story. A WR can have a 52% "catch rate" but 46% of the 48% were ones he was never going to get because they were underthrow/overthrown, thrown OOB, defensed, or intercepted.

If I remember correctly Dobson had all of 2 drops his last two years of college. COMBINED. And yet, he had more drops than that during his year in Pro Ball Career.

Yes, and that my opinion which is not right or wrong. And as far a your example, that has little to do with the subject of Aaron Dobson, KJ Hamler or draft capital invested, and still involves inputting subjectivity context which will always be there in stats; some more than others.

But that's your opinion which is not right or wrong either, just personal observations just like mine is.

 

[oceansizer]

After first day of SC Mims, Reagor, John Hightower definitely are the winners. Peiples-Jones' results suggest he is a great athlete as well. His jumping abilities are enormous.
Somehow I missed Hightower's tapes but I will catch IT up. He looks like very interesting prospect.

 

[Snooky97]

Justin Jefferson was phenomenal

 

[oceansizer]

 

[Kontradiction]

Say goodbye to Ruggs. Not that we had a shot at him anyway. But more than a few GMs just creamed their pants at his 40 time.

 

[oceansizer]

I will not be surprised if he is off the board as number one WR - even before Jeudy or Lamb.

 

[Peachhead]

Say goodbye to Ruggs. Not that we had a shot at him anyway. But more than a few GMs just creamed their pants at his 40 time.

Justin Jefferson or Denzel Mims would be a nice consolation prize.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Justin Jefferson or Denzel Mims would be a nice consolation prize.

Mims
Please

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Jefferson and Mims were already top of the WR Big Board I'm doing but jeeez. People will be talking about Mims for a long time. Unbelievable.

I love the combine. No work this weekend so hoping to make it happen

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[patsrj]

If i had to choose one winner from the wrs it would be Mims. He was great at everything he did.

Also liked chase Claypool combine results, he is built like Megatron.

Jeudy and lamb 40 time were a little slower than I expected, but maybe my expectations were too high.