Belichick vs. Brady duel: the X and O's.

[Sicilian]

There are five keys to this game to me that, if successful, give the Pats a chance to win:

1) Whatever nugget Belichick has in the back of his brain for weird coverages, pull it out now. You're NOT going to "fool" Tom Brady, and if you do it's not going to be for the whole game. But, you CAN make him think an extra half to full second if you can adequately prepare for his progressions. This gives the rush an extra half second to get there, or move him off of his spot. This leads into:

2) The rush has to get there, in some capacity. You don't want to blitz (except maybe in some very particular looks on a few occasions), because he'll eat it up. So guys like Barmore, Judon, and Uche (if he plays) are going to need to put in some powerful efforts.

3) The offense needs some sustained drives using smart passes. They won't run consistently on this defense, no one does. But they can't be going 3 and out. You want to limit the number of possessions total in this game, because the more kicks at the can Brady gets, the less effective point #1 above becomes.

4) Win the turnover battle. Primarily, this will mean not turning the ball over yourself, because it's hard to count on getting a pick from Brady on most nights. I feel like they could force a few fumbles from these running backs though, which is another reason to try to bait them into a few more runs than they would like. Regardless, we throw two picks or lose a couple fumbles ourselves? Game over.

5) Get a splash play or two on special teams. Doesn't have to be a touchdown, but a punt return to set us up in Bucs territory, or a blocked kick, or a few punts downed inside the 5.

Do 3-4 of those points above (might take all five, but at a minimum) and we're right in this game.

 

[Steve102]

There are five keys to this game to me that, if successful, give the Pats a chance to win:

1) Whatever nugget Belichick has in the back of his brain for weird coverages, pull it out now. You're NOT going to "fool" Tom Brady, and if you do it's not going to be for the whole game. But, you CAN make him think an extra half to full second if you can adequately prepare for his progressions. This gives the rush an extra half second to get there, or move him off of his spot. This leads into:

2) The rush has to get there, in some capacity. You don't want to blitz (except maybe in some very particular looks on a few occasions), because he'll eat it up. So guys like Barmore, Judon, and Uche (if he plays) are going to need to put in some powerful efforts.

3) The offense needs some sustained drives using smart passes. They won't run consistently on this defense, no one does. But they can't be going 3 and out. You want to limit the number of possessions total in this game, because the more kicks at the can Brady gets, the less effective point #1 above becomes.

4) Win the turnover battle. Primarily, this will mean not turning the ball over yourself, because it's hard to count on getting a pick from Brady on most nights. I feel like they could force a few fumbles from these running backs though, which is another reason to try to bait them into a few more runs than they would like. Regardless, we throw two picks or lose a couple fumbles ourselves? Game over.

5) Get a splash play or two on special teams. Doesn't have to be a touchdown, but a punt return to set us up in Bucs territory, or a blocked kick, or a few punts downed inside the 5.

Do 3-4 of those points above (might take all five, but at a minimum) and we're right in this game.

This is how the rest of the NFL has felt for 20 years. Boy, we were lucky. Spoiled.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

There are five keys to this game to me that, if successful, give the Pats a chance to win:

1) Whatever nugget Belichick has in the back of his brain for weird coverages, pull it out now. You're NOT going to "fool" Tom Brady, and if you do it's not going to be for the whole game. But, you CAN make him think an extra half to full second if you can adequately prepare for his progressions. This gives the rush an extra half second to get there, or move him off of his spot. This leads into:

2) The rush has to get there, in some capacity. You don't want to blitz (except maybe in some very particular looks on a few occasions), because he'll eat it up. So guys like Barmore, Judon, and Uche (if he plays) are going to need to put in some powerful efforts.

3) The offense needs some sustained drives using smart passes. They won't run consistently on this defense, no one does. But they can't be going 3 and out. You want to limit the number of possessions total in this game, because the more kicks at the can Brady gets, the less effective point #1 above becomes.

4) Win the turnover battle. Primarily, this will mean not turning the ball over yourself, because it's hard to count on getting a pick from Brady on most nights. I feel like they could force a few fumbles from these running backs though, which is another reason to try to bait them into a few more runs than they would like. Regardless, we throw two picks or lose a couple fumbles ourselves? Game over.

5) Get a splash play or two on special teams. Doesn't have to be a touchdown, but a punt return to set us up in Bucs territory, or a blocked kick, or a few punts downed inside the 5.

Do 3-4 of those points above (might take all five, but at a minimum) and we're right in this game.

Great post .

One tweak. I'm not sure an exotic look will help over 40 Bucs passing downs. Brady will look for where Mills or SloJuan are every time and repeatedly torch these two with his 5 all star weapons.

 

[Sicilian]

This is how the rest of the NFL has felt for 20 years. Boy, we were lucky. Spoiled.

Yup. And writing them out on a forum while eating a granola bar is a LOT easier than actually doing it. But I feel like when we lost games while Brady was here, this was typically how it happened.

 

[Sicilian]

Great post .

One tweak. I'm not sure an exotic look will help over 40 Bucs passing downs. Brady will look for where Mills or SloJuan are every time and repeatedly torch these two with his 5 all star weapons.

Oh no doubt. My thought process isn't to find something that's going to give him trouble all day, but maybe enough that you can "steal" a few drives and give your offense a chance to hold the ball. Anything exotic we throw at him will be dissected and adjusted to by the second half, so it will feel more like the Chiefs games in recent history: Keep them in check early, hopefully have a lead, then weather the storm and hope the clock is kind to you.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The more I think about it Barmore should play every snap this game, sit Godchaux. Get a push up the middle. And it's ok to bait the Bucs to run. Make the clock drain to zero as fast as possible

 

[PP2]

There are five keys to this game to me that, if successful, give the Pats a chance to win:

1) Whatever nugget Belichick has in the back of his brain for weird coverages, pull it out now. You're NOT going to "fool" Tom Brady, and if you do it's not going to be for the whole game. But, you CAN make him think an extra half to full second if you can adequately prepare for his progressions. This gives the rush an extra half second to get there, or move him off of his spot.

Exactly! If you confuse him enough to the point where he starts thinking instead of reacting, you are buying a few more seconds to collapse the pocket. And yes, it can last the whole game if it's used sparingly- not every snap, but once in a while so he doesn't see enough of it to get a handle on it in time.

That being said, I still think the best strategy is to just bring as much pressure up the middle as possible. Just ram those A gaps.

 

[Steve102]

Yup. And writing them out on a forum while eating a granola bar is a LOT easier than actually doing it. But I feel like when we lost games while Brady was here, this was typically how it happened.

LOL do we work together, because that's EXACTLY what I was doing this morning.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I remember.

good memory but 44 year old brady takes a dump on any version of maniac gun slinger Bledsoe who loved to chuck it up to the moon

Who else got extremely frustrated watching Bledsoe throw his signature INT to a LB?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Trade Patricia to Tampa so he can bench one of their key defenders. Hope that analysis is not too in depth for this thread!

 

[jimnance]

There are five keys to this game to me that, if successful, give the Pats a chance to win:

1) Whatever nugget Belichick has in the back of his brain for weird coverages, pull it out now. You're NOT going to "fool" Tom Brady, and if you do it's not going to be for the whole game. But, you CAN make him think an extra half to full second if you can adequately prepare for his progressions. This gives the rush an extra half second to get there, or move him off of his spot. This leads into:

2) The rush has to get there, in some capacity. You don't want to blitz (except maybe in some very particular looks on a few occasions), because he'll eat it up. So guys like Barmore, Judon, and Uche (if he plays) are going to need to put in some powerful efforts.

3) The offense needs some sustained drives using smart passes. They won't run consistently on this defense, no one does. But they can't be going 3 and out. You want to limit the number of possessions total in this game, because the more kicks at the can Brady gets, the less effective point #1 above becomes.

4) Win the turnover battle. Primarily, this will mean not turning the ball over yourself, because it's hard to count on getting a pick from Brady on most nights. I feel like they could force a few fumbles from these running backs though, which is another reason to try to bait them into a few more runs than they would like. Regardless, we throw two picks or lose a couple fumbles ourselves? Game over.

5) Get a splash play or two on special teams. Doesn't have to be a touchdown, but a punt return to set us up in Bucs territory, or a blocked kick, or a few punts downed inside the 5.

Do 3-4 of those points above (might take all five, but at a minimum) and we're right in this game.

I agree with most of this. Unfortunately, probably the most important player we have to sustain drives vs Bucs D is James White. Ouch!
And what would help the rush arrive is good coverage: most important D player we have vs. Bucs O is Gilmore. Ouch! Ouch! Did somebody say Uche? Nah he may be out as well.
And of course our beloved Pats are coming off won of the worst performances of the last 20 years. We should get blown out by 30+.
But... I'm watching anyway. And damn right I'll be happy with a moral victory. Show some smarts and toughness, no dumb penalties and OL shows up.

 

[venecol]

Name them.

Herron and Durant for one.

 

[Sicilian]

I agree with most of this. Unfortunately, probably the most important player we have to sustain drives vs Bucs D is James White. Ouch!
And what would help the rush arrive is good coverage: most important D player we have vs. Bucs O is Gilmore. Ouch! Ouch! Did somebody say Uche? Nah he may be out as well.
And of course our beloved Pats are coming off won of the worst performances of the last 20 years. We should get blown out by 30+.
But... I'm watching anyway. And damn right I'll be happy with a moral victory. Show some smarts and toughness, no dumb penalties and OL shows up.

Can't argue with either of the first two points. White and Gilmore would have been HUGE in a game like this. It's definitely much harder without them, no question. Uche practiced yesterday in limited fashion, and was kind of a surprise out last week if I'm not mistaken. He may not play, but there's a good chance he does as well.

As for getting blown out? I'd be surprised. I feel like every time we're SUPPOSED to get blown out, we don't. And much like the Saints responded to their whooping against Carolina, I expect this team to respond well to the wake up call against the Saints. That doesn't mean it'll be enough to overcome the challenges against the Bucs, but I expect a much better effort in this game than last... which, by the way, despite being their worst game this year, was a 1 score game in the 4th quarter with a 3rd and 7 for the defense. One player makes one play and that game comes down to the wire. Them's the breaks, you don't get credit for how you lose, just saying that even their worst effort ended up being a close game in the end.

 

[PP2]

Herron and Durant for one.

This thread is about the X's and O's of BB (defense) vs. Brady (offense).

 

[venecol]

There are five keys to this game to me that, if successful, give the Pats a chance to win:

Good post.

1) Whatever nugget Belichick has in the back of his brain for weird coverages, pull it out now. You're NOT going to "fool" Tom Brady, and if you do it's not going to be for the whole game. But, you CAN make him think an extra half to full second if you can adequately prepare for his progressions. This gives the rush an extra half second to get there, or move him off of his spot. This leads into:

Watching MNF, Peyton talking to Stafford about which coverage they preferred and they both agreed man 2 man because zone required them to take an extra second to figure out disguises. However, always heard Brady picks zones apart, so what do you do.

2) The rush has to get there, in some capacity. You don't want to blitz (except maybe in some very particular looks on a few occasions), because he'll eat it up. So guys like Barmore, Judon, and Uche (if he plays) are going to need to put in some powerful efforts.

Brady was under constant pressure against Rams and it definitely affected him but there were also a few dropped passes that could've changed the game. I believe Brady's TtT is under 2.4 so it'll be tough.

3) The offense needs some sustained drives using smart passes. They won't run consistently on this defense, no one does. But they can't be going 3 and out. You want to limit the number of possessions total in this game, because the more kicks at the can Brady gets, the less effective point #1 above becomes.

Agree but even more important than this is scoring tuddies vs fgs in the red area. That's been killing us all season.

4) Win the turnover battle. Primarily, this will mean not turning the ball over yourself, because it's hard to count on getting a pick from Brady on most nights. I feel like they could force a few fumbles from these running backs though, which is another reason to try to bait them into a few more runs than they would like. Regardless, we throw two picks or lose a couple fumbles ourselves? Game over.

This is an obvious one except for Boys were +3 in TO diff. and Bucs still beat them! But agree, no TOs allowed. Can't give Tom extra chances.

5) Get a splash play or two on special teams. Doesn't have to be a touchdown, but a punt return to set us up in Bucs territory, or a blocked kick, or a few punts downed inside the 5.

Do 3-4 of those points above (might take all five, but at a minimum) and we're right in this game.

Yes, this would help.

As others have said, keeping Mac clean in the pocket will be key to having chance since Bucs secondary is depleted.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Who else got extremely frustrated watching Bledsoe throw his signature INT to a LB?

I remember losing my S*** when he threw away our chances at a bye against pitt in 97 with a horrible pick.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I remember losing my S*** when he threw away our chances at a bye against pitt in 97 with a horrible pick.

He has a weird habit of throwing to LB’s. It was weird.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Bill needs to look at tape on a team that frustrated Tom the most. And I mean frustrated him so much he was visibly seen on the field yapping at individual players and referees. It’s not the 2007 and 2011 Giants, Ravens, or the Rex Ryan Jets from ‘09-‘10. It’s a team that rarely gets discussed on here.

It’s none other than the 2005-2006 Broncos. They used the worst defensive scheme of all time which was borrowed from the briefly used 2003 Cowboys called the “11 man up” defense. Everyone including the Safeties crowd the line of scrimmage. They either blitz or run back in deep coverage right before they think the QB will hike the ball. For some reason, Brady was freaking out at the LOS and didn’t have a clue who was rushing or going into coverage. He was seen counting defenders as if he was a conductor of an orchestra. John Lynch repeatedly got under his skin because he kept psyching Brady out at the LOS. They got into it a few times after the play was over. 3 straight times they fooled Brady, but a 2nd year QB shreds them in his first meeting in Denver for the AFCCG (Big Ben). Just bizarre. Scheme was quickly scrapped as other teams caught on.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Bill needs to look at tape on a team that frustrated Tom the most. And I mean frustrated him so much he was visibly seen on the field yapping at individual players and referees. It’s not the 2007 and 2011 Giants, Ravens, or the Rex Ryan Jets from ‘09-‘10. It’s a team that rarely gets discussed on here.

It’s none other than the 2005-2006 Broncos. They used the worst defensive scheme of all time which was borrowed from the briefly used 2003 Cowboys called the “11 man up” defense. Everyone including the Safeties crowd the line of scrimmage. They either blitz or run back in deep coverage right before they think the QB will hike the ball. For some reason, Brady was freaking out at the LOS and didn’t have a clue who was rushing or going into coverage. He was seen counting defenders as if he was a conductor of an orchestra. John Lynch repeatedly got under his skin because he kept psyching Brady out at the LOS. They got into it a few times after the play was over. 3 straight times they fooled Brady, but a 2nd year QB shreds them in his first meeting in Denver for the AFCCG (Big Ben). Just bizarre. Scheme was quickly scrapped as other teams caught on.

Well yeah he could look at the tape but as you say that scheme was figured out.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Well yeah he could look at the tape but as you say that scheme was figured out.

Not by Brady and that was the point.