Belichick should trade the 1st rounder for Garoppolo

[aluminum seats]

So I went back 27 years, to the start of the Cowboys dynasty. Good a place as any to consider the modern era, although I know the game has changed quite a bit since then.

Thing is, I’d say the importance of getting the QB has actually been underplayed. In that time, these quarterbacks have won multiple SBs:

Brady—7

Aikman—3

Roethlisberger, Elway, both Mannings (I know)—2

QBs with one (group 1) Favre, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Warner, Mahomes

QBs with one (group 2): Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Nick Foles

So, that’s 27 years, with 32 quarterbacks a year having the chance to win the Super Bowl (864 individual QB “seasons”) and in total FIFTEEN have won. Of that 15, 12 are arguably Hall of Famers (Eli getting in would be a joke, but you know he has a shot). Trent Dilfer rode a historic defense. The opposing coach Foles played against decided to bench the starting defense or something (my memory’s hazy on that one). The Brad Johnson TB team had a pretty great defense too.

Point being, what difference does ANYTHING else make if you don’t have the guy? Hope for a historic defense?

I’m not saying JG is the guy, excuse the clickbait I honestly have no idea. I’m just saying if BELICHICK thinks he’s the guy—or if he thinks somebody else is the guy—giving up draft picks is a trivial price to pay. Otherwise you’re hoping for some historic outlier. The thing is, of course, you gotta be right. But come on, Belichick's a genius, right? He must know who the guy is.

 

[jah]

Hmm. Yeah, if BB hypothetically thinks a certain QB can get the team another ring, he probably will give up a 1 for that QB.

I'm not so sure this conclusion can only be reached by examining Super Bowl winners. Really the only insight to get from those numbers you posted is how good Tom Brady is. Beyond that, you really have to just look at the specifics.

Many of those names listed were carried by great teams for their specific Super Bowl runs, even if they're considered great QBs overall for their career (the Mannings). Then there's the inverse, where a mediocre QB played out of his mind and was a big reason for the victory (Flacco, Foles).

Aikman and Roethlisberger (to a lesser extent) benefitted from either very strong or very stable (or both) teams around them, but probably aren't any better than the Group 1 of guys with one ring.

Then there's the guys who were absolutely good enough individually to get more than 1 ring but for some combination of reasons, only got the one (Brees, Rodgers, Warner, Wilson).

It really just comes down to a case by case analysis, which is your bottom line point. But I find it kind of funny that the justification for this conclusion is to create a very general narrative out of a small sample size.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Nah, a second rounder only plus David f'ing Putney because I feel like it

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Why would we give up more than what we gave him to them for? Especially after 2 injury plagued seasons out of 3 and they decide they don't want him anymore. That's like selling a used car for $5,000 and buying it back 3 years later for $7,500 after it has a bunch of issues. I hope it'd be nothing more than a 3rd... and would depend how much of that salary we're on the hook for.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Nah a second rounder only plus David f'ing Putney because I feel like it

David Putney.....epic.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think a 2nd is more than generous. Maybe even a 3rd with his injury history.

 

[aluminum seats]

Really the only insight to get from those numbers you posted is how good Tom Brady is

Having one guy account for like a 1/3 of the SBs skews things for sure

But I find it kind of funny that the justification for this conclusion is to create a very general narrative out of a small sample size.

Well, it's not that small a sample size. And I think you might be writing off the importance of the QB for those Super Bowl winning years. I think there are many solid teams every year that COULD win, but the one that does typically has the elite QB

 

[masterbouncer]

if you'd know that a specific QB would bring you a ring, why don't draft him than instead of trading? you never know what a QB will bring in the end, you seem to have a great QB just to figure out he ends up being more on IR than playing for what he is actually paid for, so yes a QB might be worth a first rounder (also in a trade)
but JG is for sure not worth a damn 1st, you don't pay 1st round for an IR player, and JG did not showed he can stay healthy so **** no

 

[Steve102]

He must know who the guy is.

I'm 100% convinced of this. I suspect he has 3-4 guys he considers "the guy". Mind you, being the guy and being The Guy are two vastly different things.

 

[Ring 6]

So I went back 27 years, to the start of the Cowboys dynasty. Good a place as any to consider the modern era, although I know the game has changed quite a bit since then.

Thing is, I’d say the importance of getting the QB has actually been underplayed. In that time, these quarterbacks have won multiple SBs:

Brady—7

Aikman—3

Roethlisberger, Elway, both Mannings (I know)—2

QBs with one (group 1) Favre, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Warner, Mahomes

QBs with one (group 2): Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Nick Foles

So, that’s 27 years, with 32 quarterbacks a year having the chance to win the Super Bowl (864 individual QB “seasons”) and in total FIFTEEN have won. Of that 15, 12 are arguably Hall of Famers (Eli getting in would be a joke, but you know he has a shot). Trent Dilfer rode a historic defense. The opposing coach Foles played against decided to bench the starting defense or something (my memory’s hazy on that one). The Brad Johnson TB team had a pretty great defense too.

Point being, what difference does ANYTHING else make if you don’t have the guy? Hope for a historic defense?

I’m not saying JG is the guy, excuse the clickbait . I honestly have no idea. I’m just saying if BELICHICK thinks he’s the guy—or if he thinks somebody else is the guy—giving up draft picks is a trivial price to pay. Otherwise you’re hoping for some historic outlier. The thing is, of course, you gotta be right. But come, Belichick's a genius, right? He must know who the guy is.

There is a different way to look at this. Each one of those teams when they won the QB was surrounded by a great team. Is it the supporting cast that results in winning and the QB is considered better because he won and he won because of the team suurounding him?

 

[aluminum seats]

There is a different way to look at this. Each one of those teams when they won the QB was surrounded by a great team. Is it the supporting cast that results in winning and the QB is considered better because he won and he won because of the team suurounding him?

Hmmm..Maybe, but I don't think so. I mean, I don't think we think of Dilfer or Foles or Johnson as great because they won. Or that idiot Eli for that matter. Is there anyone of the other 11 you'd put in that category?

 

[amfootball]

I doubt Bill trades anything for Jimmy. The Niners want a QB in return and we don't have one to give them.

 

[denverpatsfan]

He still might be cut. Let's wait and see...

 

[TheRainMaker]

Absolutely not! Just sit back and wait and see what the 49ers do during the draft. If the Falcons draft a QB, Ryan will be traded to SF. Cousins is also rumored as well. Jimmy G will then be released. Seats are heating up in SF. Lynch finally admitted his blunder saying he's haunted by passing on Mahomes for the legend of Soloman Thomas.

 

[Username]

Nope.

Garropolo got us all excited after a very small sample size of his performances. Since going to San Fran he's look ordinary at best and is constantly hurt.

What does BB always insist is his most important trait in a player? Availability.

There's no way he gives up a first for Jimmy G. Maybe a 5th, but that's about it. He's not as good as our fan base seem to think he is.

 

[NashuaPats]

I’d be happy with Jimmy, but I don’t think we need to give up a first. He might get cut and we might be able to sign him for less than what he’s currently signed for.

 

[Uptown]

Garopphellno.

 

[scott99]

No more than a 2nd, the guy is just too injury prone. That being said, when healthy, Jimmy G is a good QB. Quick reads, quick release, good enough arm, smart and intense. Already knows the offense. He would be a great fit, and my first realistic choice as an offseason pickup at QB. But no more than a 2nd round pick. Or if we are gonna trade Gilmore, why not straight up Gilmore for Jimmy G trade.

 

[Zuma]

If Bill thinks Jimmy G can help get the Patriots another ring...sure.

 

[Shockt327]

This just laughable, Jimmy Garoppolo is like an injury prone Kirk Cousins. Yeah, he can be borderline top 10 in stats, but he's not a franchise QB. No one is going to give up a 1st for Cousins, probably not even a 2nd. So, if Cousins were injury prone? That value shrinks greatly; and that's how the rest of the league views Jimmy G.

So, even if you are 100% convinced Bill can make him great, you still don't give a straight-up 1 or 2 for him, because, again, no one else values him that way.