My apologies in advance, another QB Draft thread, but I don't THINK this has come up and it's interesting to me

[aluminum seats]

OK, I know there's been a million of these, I've complained myself. But I'm not a college football guy really, and we really haven't needed to be top of the draft QB guys around these parts, so this is a question to those who are always into it

Here's what I'm wondering. Throughout the season, the QBs everybody pointed to were Williams (that hasn't changed) and Maye. They were 1-2. Then all the sudden people were more into Daniels. Now he's looking more like #2. But wait! Now here's McCarthy. Like a freaking horse race, down the stretch they come

So the question is this: When the dust settles, are the better guys usually who everybody thought were the top picks all along? Or do the guys who rise late end up being better. Like this year, I will know who was valued and when, and in 5 years time we'll know who did better. But what has happened before?

 

[Ross12]

I know in 2021, Trey Lance was the late riser due to athleticism. We know how that worked out. I can't remember exactly who was the consensus #2 guy behind Trevor Lawrence during the season - I don't think Zach Wilson really rose as much until later in the year and into the offseason either. Mac Jones and Justin Fields had higher pedigrees as far as schools (and Mac won the national championship that year) but still had question marks, and they both slid some as time went on.

2020, I know it was Burrow/Tua throughout and that's what happened - Justin Herbert went third, and IIRC he had question marks as far as if he would actually be good or not due to the Oregon system. Then Jordan Love went much later in the 20s.

2019, it was basically Kyler Murray and that's it.

2018, Baker Mayfield was the quintessential "oh man this guy came outta nowhere", he went from being like and end-of-the-first-round guy at the end of the season to going #1 overall to Cleveland. The Patriots were linked to being interested in him, obviously picking at the end of the first, and then Cleveland said "no actually he's the best in the draft." I think Sam Darnold was the "consensus" top QB that college season and ended up going 5th to the Jets, and then Josh Allen was a big unknown and went to Buffalo after that. Josh Rosen was supposed to be high floor, kind of like Mac in '21, and went 10th but totally busted instead.

 

[aluminum seats]

Thanks for the detailed response Ross, interesting

I think the takeaway from those (would be interested if anyone had any older examples) is that most of the time the "late risers" weren't all that. Lance, Mayfield, etc. Guys like Burrow who were thought all along were going to be good, were. Or at least more likely to be

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Not sure how accurate Mock Drafts are to real NFL boards
Will Levi’s was suppose to go Top 5 last year. Went in 2nd round
Not sure if risers we see are already up there. Because each year many players that we see in Mocks that are up high and go in the later rounds.

But to your point. I would love to see a chart of each draft to compare the risers and fallers in Mock drafts and how they compared to the real thing. That way we can get a sense of how to feel about a certain player when it happens

 

[Ross12]

Thanks for the detailed response Ross, interesting

I think the takeaway from those (would be interested if anyone had any older examples) is that most of the time the "late risers" weren't all that. Lance, Mayfield, etc. Guys like Burrow who were thought all along were going to be good, were. Or at least more likely to be

I dunno, I think ultimately Mayfield turned out to be worth the pick compared to many of his peers - Darnold was the guy who was “supposed” to be number 1 and he was awful. And the high floor guy Rosen also sucked. Baker was more hamstrung by the situation he was drafted into than his own skillset. Was he a generational talent? No, but he’s turned out better than those guys. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in that class have ultimately had better careers but the likelihood of that happening was not high really.

I actually think Eliot Wolf was the main guy who scouted Baker and was responsible for making the pitch to take him #1 in Cleveland… which may be relevant to us today, if Wolf again feels strongly that one of these QBs is a lot better than the consensus thinks (McCarthy?)

 

[Ivan]

OK, I know there's been a million of these, I've complained myself. But I'm not a college football guy really, and we really haven't needed to be top of the draft QB guys around these parts, so this is a question to those who are always into it

Here's what I'm wondering. Throughout the season, the QBs everybody pointed to were Williams (that hasn't changed) and Maye. They were 1-2. Then all the sudden people were more into Daniels. Now he's looking more like #2. But wait! Now here's McCarthy. Like a freaking horse race, down the stretch they come

So the question is this: When the dust settles, are the better guys usually who everybody thought were the top picks all along? Or do the guys who rise late end up being better. Like this year, I will know who was valued and when, and in 5 years time we'll know who did better. But what has happened before?

Like everything else I think it depends upon the year and player. Trey Lance went flying up draft boards and wasn’t anywhere near ready for the Pro’s. Burrows was considered a second round project in December of his senior season, ended up winning a national championship and going 1st overall and has proven to be a really good NFL Qb.

 

[Ivan]

I dunno, I think ultimately Mayfield turned out to be worth the pick compared to many of his peers - Darnold was the guy who was “supposed” to be number 1 and he was awful. And the high floor guy Rosen also sucked. Baker was more hamstrung by the situation he was drafted into than his own skillset. Was he a generational talent? No, but he’s turned out better than those guys. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in that class have ultimately had better careers but the likelihood of that happening was not high really.

I actually think Eliot Wolf was the main guy who scouted Baker and was responsible for making the pitch to take him #1 in Cleveland… which may be relevant to us today, if Wolf again feels strongly that one of these QBs is a lot better than the consensus thinks (McCarthy?)

Scouts and analysts always talk about how difficult it is to evaluate quarterbacks and how hit and miss it is. But I can give them one piece of advice that I believe is foolproof. Never ever draft a quarterback who believes they are entitled. Take them off your draft board the moment you recognize that character trait. Be it Jeff George, Ryan Leaf, Josh Rosen, or Zach Wilson they always suck, because people who are entitled are takers, not leaders, and a quarterback who can’t lead is completely worthless.

 

[aluminum seats]

I know it was Burrow/Tua throughout and that's what happened

Burrows was considered a second round project in December of his senior season

I'm seeing different things here, come on guys! I need facts!

 

[Ivan]

I looked at Draft Countdown in December the year Burrow came out and he was named a second round project for the Patriots, that’s why it stuck with me. I really didn’t pay much attention to the draft and the Combine that year, and when I started looking at Mocks around then he had gone from a day 2 project for the Patriots to the top of the first round: He was a transfer who led LSU to National Championship, and that propelled him to the #1 overall pick.

 

[Ross12]

I'm seeing different things here, come on guys! I need facts!

I looked at Draft Countdown in December the year Burrow came out and he was named a second round project for the Patriots, that’s why it stuck with me. I really didn’t pay much attention to the draft and the Combine that year, and when I started looking at Mocks around then he had gone from a day 2 project for the Patriots to the top of the first round: He was a transfer who led LSU to National Championship, and that propelled him to the #1 overall pick.

Yeah Burrow definitely was a riser but he rose during the course of his season. I was more so looking at players whose stock rose after the season was over.

Daniels largely rose up from being a project up to being a “top 10” guy during the season, and cemented being a top 3-5 guy pretty much by the time the season was over. His rise to being #2 over Maye for a lot of people (partially also due to people heavily analyzing and critiquing Maye) has mostly been after the year ended. So kind of similar in a way.

 

[signbabybrady]

This seems like an interesting topic and I'm intrigued to hear what others have to say.

So far I've seen Lance thrown around as a cautionary tale of a late riser. I think Daniels and even McCarthy are a little different since we are talking about a national champ and the Heisman winner so their rise would seem more justified than Lance's.

That's not to say that winning a National champ means success see Mac lol or Heisman for that matter as I think recently most failed to make the leap to the pros. In the past I think there was more correlation to success.

 

[signbabybrady]

Yeah Burrow definitely was a riser but he rose during the course of his season. I was more so looking at players whose stock rose after the season was over.

Daniels largely rose up from being a project up to being a “top 10” guy during the season, and cemented being a top 3-5 guy pretty much by the time the season was over. His rise to being #2 over Maye for a lot of people (partially also due to people heavily analyzing and critiquing Maye) has mostly been after the year ended.

And there goes my previous comment lol.

Definitely got to be a little scared of the guys that rise after the games are done.

 

[jmt57]

I was thinking that in some cases it is a case of name recognition from playing for a well known school?
For example in 2018 you have Sam Darnold (USC) #3, while Lamar Jackson (Louisville) goes #32.
But on the other hand in 2021 there was Zach Wilson (BYU, 2) and Trey Lance (N Dakota St, 3) going ahead of an Ohio St QB (Justin Fields, 11) and an Alabama QB (Mac Jones, 15) - so that blows that theory out of the water.

Maybe some NFL personnel are prone to having a recency bias, placing too much weight on the Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Day - in comparison to that player's full body of work over their collegiate career? This could theoretically be the case with head coaches, coordinators and position coaches who have their plate full during the NFL season - and are not focused on potential draftees until after the college football season has ended.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

This is what Daniel Jeremiah has said multiple times on podcasts.

Most teams do not have a " board " at this stage of the draft. They are evaluating players, getting medicals, deep into film watching and beginning to assign grades. Once grades are assigned THEN boards are assembled..

Rising up draft board is media speak for

" we are just starting to find out what TEAMS think about certain players and are adjusting OUR "media based" mock draft boards accordingly. "

 

[Jim Beankie]

I'm seeing different things here, come on guys! I need facts!

According to Mock Database, he was pretty much top 10 around Nov 2019 on (with some random dude slotting him at #56 in Oct '19), settling at around 4-5 mid Dec then crept up until consensus #1.

 

[Jim Beankie]

This seems like an interesting topic and I'm intrigued to hear what others have to say.

So far I've seen Lance thrown around as a cautionary tale of a late riser. I think Daniels and even McCarthy are a little different since we are talking about a national champ and the Heisman winner so their rise would seem more justified than Lance's.

That's not to say that winning a National champ means success see Mac lol or Heisman for that matter as I think recently most failed to make the leap to the pros. In the past I think there was more correlation to success.

I remember being a Lance guy but thought only if the Pats traded down from 15. With him it was just plain unlucky - pointer finger injury on throwing hand during his first preseason that messed up his mechanics then ankle injury 2nd year for pretty much the whole year. In Sam Horn fashion, I think his 1st 2 passes ever were TDs.

Has always made me pause as a Daniels guy, although I became a Daniels guy when I thought they could get him late 1st or even 2nd round. Now in my head that's such a high pick for someone who's gonna get hit a lot, either in the pocket or running around.

 

[Jim Beankie]

OK, I know there's been a million of these, I've complained myself. But I'm not a college football guy really, and we really haven't needed to be top of the draft QB guys around these parts, so this is a question to those who are always into it

Here's what I'm wondering. Throughout the season, the QBs everybody pointed to were Williams (that hasn't changed) and Maye. They were 1-2. Then all the sudden people were more into Daniels. Now he's looking more like #2. But wait! Now here's McCarthy. Like a freaking horse race, down the stretch they come

So the question is this: When the dust settles, are the better guys usually who everybody thought were the top picks all along? Or do the guys who rise late end up being better. Like this year, I will know who was valued and when, and in 5 years time we'll know who did better. But what has happened before?

Maye lost 4 of his last 6 (with 1 stinker throwing 44.4% and throwing 4INTs in his last 3 games). Perception wise, I can see why he became less of a sure thing.

 

[Jim Beankie]

OK, I know there's been a million of these, I've complained myself. But I'm not a college football guy really, and we really haven't needed to be top of the draft QB guys around these parts, so this is a question to those who are always into it

Here's what I'm wondering. Throughout the season, the QBs everybody pointed to were Williams (that hasn't changed) and Maye. They were 1-2. Then all the sudden people were more into Daniels. Now he's looking more like #2. But wait! Now here's McCarthy. Like a freaking horse race, down the stretch they come

So the question is this: When the dust settles, are the better guys usually who everybody thought were the top picks all along? Or do the guys who rise late end up being better. Like this year, I will know who was valued and when, and in 5 years time we'll know who did better. But what has happened before?

Speaking of horse races...

 

[Ivan]

I remember being a Lance guy but thought only if the Pats traded down from 15. With him it was just plain unlucky - pointer finger injury on throwing hand during his first preseason that messed up his mechanics then ankle injury 2nd year for pretty much the whole year. In Sam Horn fashion, I think his 1st 2 passes ever were TDs.

Has always made me pause as a Daniels guy, although I became a Daniels guy when I thought they could get him late 1st or even 2nd round. Now in my head that's such a high pick for someone who's gonna get hit a lot, either in the pocket or running around.

There’s no comparison between Lance and Daniels. Lance had 17 starts at North Dakota State, Daniels had 55 at ASU and LSU. And Daniels put up record setting numbers in the toughest conference in college football. Daniels is as prepared to go to the NFL as it gets, and Lance should have gone to the CFL.

 

[signbabybrady]

Speaking of horse races...

Smart bet is on the bigger one.