Bam Childress

[patchick]

I doubt a look back at what started this dialogue will edify anyone currantly in mother hen mode, but for grins and giggles lets postulate that I did not advocate waiving him to place on the practice squad as a first choice. Lets instead subscribe to the theory that I expressed an opinion (also unpleasant to some) that his currant situation seemed to have him on track for the Injured Reserve. We might even consider that later in the conversation, I listed what appear to be the three options available for dealing with him as an unproven, apparently talented, injured player whom we would wish to retain.

...

I look forward to learning how you would assign roles on the WR roster.

Cluck cluck cluck...

Speaking just for myself, I keyed on your "option #3" because I don't believe it's an option at all. The total gain you reap from cutting him vs. IR is his 2006 salary, a whopping $275,000. It is inconceivable to me that the player isn't worth that, either in 2007-9 potential or at the least trade value. So the only imaginable benefit to cutting him is if you think he'd clear waivers to the PS and help you later in the season...but he won't. No way.

So, some scenarios:

1. Branch shows up and Jackson returns to look good in practice before the last cut down.
Then: All arguments cease, move right along everybody.

2. Branch insanely continues his holdout into the season. Jackson returns to practice OR the team feels confident that he will be healthy soon.
Then: Caldwell and Brown are your starters, backed up by Childress and Jackson (once healthy). To-do list: scan the waiver wires, keep Kight's number in your rolodex, curse the name of Deion Branch.

3. Branch continues his holdout, the team feels confident that Jackson's injury requires long-term rehab.
Then: Send Jackson to IR, pursue a trade for a serviceable WR, and everything on list #2.

In short, this team needs wideout help. Chad Jackson is a raw, unproven rookie but seems to have a whole lot more potential than Eddie Berlin and Kelvin Kight. Given the current depth, I'd only send him to IR if he's certain to be out for months, and I can't see any scenario (short of a Maurice Clarett-type meltdown) where I'd cut him. There's simply nothing to be gained by that.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Cluck cluck cluck...

Speaking just for myself, I keyed on your "option #3" because I don't believe it's an option at all. The total gain you reap from cutting him vs. IR is his 2006 salary, a whopping $275,000. It is inconceivable to me that the player isn't worth that, either in 2007-9 potential or at the least trade value. So the only imaginable benefit to cutting him is if you think he'd clear waivers to the PS and help you later in the season...but he won't. No way.

So, some scenarios:

1. Branch shows up and Jackson returns to look good in practice before the last cut down.
Then: All arguments cease, move right along everybody.

2. Branch insanely continues his holdout into the season. Jackson returns to practice OR the team feels confident that he will be healthy soon.
Then: Caldwell and Brown are your starters, backed up by Childress and Jackson (once healthy). To-do list: scan the waiver wires, keep Kight's number in your rolodex, curse the name of Deion Branch.

3. Branch continues his holdout, the team feels confident that Jackson's injury requires long-term rehab.
Then: Send Jackson to IR, pursue a trade for a serviceable WR, and everything on list #2.

In short, this team needs wideout help. Chad Jackson is a raw, unproven rookie but seems to have a whole lot more potential than Eddie Berlin and Kelvin Kight. Given the current depth, I'd only send him to IR if he's certain to be out for months, and I can't see any scenario (short of a Maurice Clarett-type meltdown) where I'd cut him. There's simply nothing to be gained by that.

Fair scenerios, as long as expectations of the next Anquan Boldin, or rookie Deion Branch for that matter, are filed neatly away under pundit mania. It is just my perception that this is much rawer talent than a rookie Branch, until it's out of the egg, I'm unsure if we have a chick or a gator.

 

[arrellbee]

Box
The thing that has everyone scratching their heads in incredulity is that not only did you mention the option of release to begin with but you seem to actually consider that an actual possibility as witness later posts. There must be some perverse reason you are doing this, but I can't imagine what it might be. While a technical possibility, it is little short of senseless to think the Pats would consider it for even a 'microsecond'. You yourself indicate that the Patriots give high draft picks two or even three years to see if they will work out. If you had something concrete to suggest that there was a flaw you have found out about that would make Jackson so worthless that you just jettison him immediately, you certainly haven't given us any information about it or even hinted at it. In lieu of that, your comments are senseless. If there is not some absolutely fatal flaw, the very least the Patriots would do is put him on IR for the year (protecting their ownership of his rights) and work with him thru offseason and next season's training camp.

Your comments are beyond comprehension.

 

[arrellbee]

.... perhaps you could offer an alternative WR roster to the one I projected, here is mine again to refresh your memory: Branch, Caldwell/Childress, Brown; If not Jackson, the battle will be between Stone, Musinski, Kight, and Berlin. I think Musinski goes back to Practice Squad as insurance. Erik Davis also seems on track for the Squad.

To start the season:
Branch - of course
Caldwell - with his experience and work with Tom Brady, he will start at least the first few games as the second receiver. Belichick is ultimately pragmatic and practice time and familiarity with Brady will override any other considerations.
Brown - Troy will be top of the depth chart at slot receiver IF a WR is used in the slot. Again, Belichick will go with the experience even if Childress is showing real promise.
Childress - As the roster stands now, Childress appears to have earned the 4th spot over any of the other inexperienced WRs. If Jackson returns before the season, I believe Childress will still be 4th on the depth chart just due to his reps with Brady and in preseason. He seems to have done well enough to earn this slot.
Jackson - unless he's on IR. Even with his lack of practice, if he shows anywhere close to the capability that he showed in college, he will be above all of the other receivers for this slot.
6th WR slot - Whether they carry a 6th receiver may depend considerably on whether any of the remaining WRs show a 'value' for a roster slot compared to an extra roster slot for other positions. I believe that Belichick factors in a fair amount of 'best players available' in deciding which positions get an 'extra' slot. I have little real information as to who might be leading this group other than Kight seems to have gotten a fair number of reps with Brady - who knows whether he took advantage of that or just proved that he can't hack it. Presuming that Andrews wins a roster spot, I think it is highly unlikely that he will be designated as a WR. He'll be carried as a DB. If none of the current WR earn a 6th roster spot and Belichick and Pioli spot one of their famous sleepers at final cuts or via trade, you could see a 6th WR that way.

If Branch does not report:
Caldwell starts as #1 WR.
Childress will get the #2 WR starting spot IF they go with a 2 WR set. They might chose to go frequently with 1 WR, 1 slot WR (Brown), and either a 2 TE set or a TE also split.
Brown - see preceding
Jackson - if he doesn't go on IR, after a couple weeks of practice he will get some reps as #2 WR.
Kight or ?? ?? - until Jackson gets a couple weeks of practice (if ever) the next WR will get some reps at #2 WR.

If Branch does not report and Jackson is on IR:
They will carry 6 WR
Caldwell
Brown
Childress
1 to 2 of the WR in camp at present
1 to 2 of WR dropped by other teams at the roster deadline or obtained by trade.

A lot of comments have been made about the situation without Branch. There is an assumption that teams will not have to double team any Pats WR. That seems reasonable since they rarely double team even Branch. In order to keep teams from putting 8 or 9 men in the box, it seems reasonable to assume that one technique that the Pats can use with the WR they have would be to use 3 WR sets or 2 WR 2TE sets. With the strength of Dillon and what appears to be good strength of Maroney, it seems like they could still manage an adequate running game. With Troy Brown probably still at least a good servicable slot WR and what appears to be a strength in TEs being reception threats, they likely would have a reasonable offense.

I have no idea how Jackson will work out this year or ongoing. I have no particulary rosy expectations. However, he appears to have excellent physical tools and good hands. It seems more reasonable than not to figure that he will develop in to at least a solid #2 WR. I personally have a lot of expectations that Belichick and Pioli are good talent evaluators. They have a 50% success rate so far with 2nd rounders (Branch versus Bethel Johnson) and they have a 50% success rate with low rounders (Givens versus PK Sam). I also happen to think that they have refined their draft evaluations over the last few years. So I really do think that from this aspect also, it is more likely than not that Jackson will prove to be the 'real' thing. As I said, there is no way to firmly evaluate what Jackson will be - however I will share my unfounded impression and feeling that Jackson will replace Childress as #2 WR after 5 to 7 weeks of practice and game time - JMHO.

Just my thoughts.

 

[PromisedLand]

I hope you're wrong about Jackson and the IR, I'm hoping worst case scenerio, the PUP for 6 weeks.

Not possible, because he practiced during training camp.

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't believe he is PUP eligible, he'll either be carried on the roster, IR'd, or waived and brought back to Practice Squad - maybe.

There is no way he'd get through waivers. Absolutely no way.

edit: I see several others have said this already. Sorry for not reading through all the posts before replying.