Way overly simplistic.
The super bowl is a very peculiar event. Scalpers have been selling inventory they don't actually have for 3 weeks, and will need to cover their positions soon. They have a variety of sources to do this, but starting on Wednesday, you will start to see a huge downturn in supply.
I don't disgree with the proposition that if on the day before the game you can pick off a mom and pop with two extras, you will probably be able to get it for less than you could right now.
But that's just not the way the super bowl works any more. You just don't see guys with fistfulls of tickets outside a super bowl. The tickets have all been bought and sold long before it gets to that point.
I saw all this first hand for the national championship game a couple of years ago, as I mentioned above. In the streets there were very few genuine tickets floating around, and literally thousands of people outside the stadium who all thought they were going to get a deal close to kickoff. 10 minutes into the game, tickets were literally being auctioned in the streets with people freaking out and running to the ATM, and tickets selling for much more than they could have been bought on ebay two days before.