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Analyzing the offense

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Wozzy

In the Starting Line-Up
I absolutely did not say if you disagree you shouldn’t respond.
I said that if you are going to post that the defined topic has no value then don’t post about it. If the topic has no value why would you post about it? If you want to post about a different topic make a thread about it. That is not attitude, it’s requesting you stay in topic.

If they don’t turn the ball over and put themselves in a position to have to convert 5-6 3rd downs on drives they won’t win anyway.
This has been a consistent issue for years that reared it’s head in a big way this year.
Of course there are many factors in teams winning and losing. Everyone of them is very important, and often the turnover issue is CAUSED by an issue like this, which absolutely has happened this year, where an offense that isn’t scoring gets behind and turns the ball over.
"If they don’t turn the ball over and put themselves in a position to have to convert 5-6 3rd downs on drives they won’t win anyway."

This ^ has no basis in truth whatsoever, it's a made up stat... especially for a team tenth best in the NFL in 3rd down conversions.

The last few years has zero to do with this year, literally nothing. Different roster, different QB, different team. Every year is a new year.

The Pat's offense turned the ball over on the opening drive last game, the score was irrelevant. In the opening game of the season Mac and the offense moved the ball the entire length of the field as time was winding down and were about to seal the game when Damien Harris fumbled... the one point difference in the score was irrelevant... the turnover wasn't.

Putting themselves in third and short isn't a problem, putting themselves in third and long because an offensive linemen jumped offsides on the previous play is a problem. I disagree with the premise of your topic, and that's very much on topic... you just don't like that I disagree.
 

Ring 6

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"If they don’t turn the ball over and put themselves in a position to have to convert 5-6 3rd downs on drives they won’t win anyway."

This ^ has no basis in truth whatsoever, it's a made up stat... especially for a team tenth best in the NFL in 3rd down conversions.

The last few years has zero to do with this year, literally nothing. Different roster, different QB, different team. Every year is a new year.

The Pat's offense turned the ball over on the opening drive last game, the score was irrelevant. In the opening game of the season Mac and the offense moved the ball the entire length of the field as time was winding down and were about to seal the game when Damien Harris fumbled... the one point difference in the score was irrelevant... the turnover wasn't.

Putting themselves in third and short isn't a problem, putting themselves in third and long because an offensive linemen jumped offsides on the previous play is a problem. I disagree with the premise of your topic, and that's very much on topic... you just don't like that I disagree.
No you are wrong. You are wrong with what happened against good teams and you are wrong with what the numbers show.

Let me put it another way.
Teams that prioritize getting to 3rd down distance over making first downs struggle in offense. This is especially true when playing good teams. This years patriot team
has a strong tendency to play that way, particularly against good teams.
It’s a fact. Your anecdotal opinions do not change that.

But again, if we go your way, fixing the run defense, playing without a starting corner, playing calling on either side of the ball, etc, etc are all irrelevant because mistakes are all that decide a gameIt doesn’t matter where you are ranked on 3rd down, relying repeatedly on a 40% possibility is not effective. That means you have a 16% chance of converting 2 in a row, a 6.4% chance of 3 in a row and a 2.6% chance of 4 in a row. Great odds huh?
 

Wozzy

In the Starting Line-Up
No you are wrong. You are wrong with what happened against good teams and you are wrong with what the numbers show.

Let me put it another way.
Teams that prioritize getting to 3rd down distance over making first downs struggle in offense. This is especially true when playing good teams. This years patriot team
has a strong tendency to play that way, particularly against good teams.
It’s a fact. Your anecdotal opinions do not change that.

But again, if we go your way, fixing the run defense, playing without a starting corner, playing calling on either side of the ball, etc, etc are all irrelevant because mistakes are all that decide a gameIt doesn’t matter where you are ranked on 3rd down, relying repeatedly on a 40% possibility is not effective. That means you have a 16% chance of converting 2 in a row, a 6.4% chance of 3 in a row and a 2.6% chance of 4 in a row. Great odds huh?
The notion that the Pats play to get to 3rd down is presumption on your part, they play to score points. They have certainly held Mac by the hand and walked him through his rookie season, but hey... he's a rookie. The surrounding team hasn't always helped along the way.

Just to put a bow on top of this "the Pats have too many third downs" problem.

To end the season the Patriots ranked 25th in third down attempts... there were only 7 teams who had fewer third down attempts.

To end the season the Patriots ranked 10th in first downs... there were only 9 teams who created more first downs.

To end the season the Patriots ranked 10th in red zone attempts... there were only 9 teams who created more red zone opportunities.

Mistakes, poor play, turnovers led to more losses than style of play.

This is the scientific method.
 

Ring 6

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The notion that the Pats play to get to 3rd down is presumption on your part, they play to score points. They have certainly held Mac by the hand and walked him through his rookie season, but hey... he's a rookie.

Just to put a bow on top of this "the Pats have too many third downs" problem.

To end the season the Patriots ranked 25th in red zone attempts... there were only 7 teams who had fewer third down attempts.

To end the season the Patriots ranked 10th in first downs... there were only 9 teams who created more first downs.

To end the season the Patriots ranked 10th in red zone attempts... there were only 9 teams who created more red zone opportunities.

Mistakes, poor play, turnovers led to more losses than style of play. This is the scientific method.
I’ve posted the numbers. Its obvious. You are letting games against the jets and jags cloud your view.
The second down offense has not been productive. They CLEARLY are playing to 3rd down distance and against crappy teams they get away with it. Against good teams they haven’t which is why they score 2 TDs less in their losses.
I understand your schtick here is arrogance but why jump into a discussion about what’s behind the numbers If you refuse to look behind the numbers?

We disagree, and nothing you have says comes close to changing the opinion I formed by actually digging in and researching the issue, so we will just leave it ther and agree to disagree.
Hopefully we aren’t spending tonight running and dumping off check forms on 2nd down so we can live and die with needing to convert a ton of 3rd downs, because we will lose.
 

Wozzy

In the Starting Line-Up
I’ve posted the numbers. Its obvious. You are letting games against the jets and jags cloud your view.
The second down offense has not been productive. They CLEARLY are playing to 3rd down distance and against crappy teams they get away with it. Against good teams they haven’t which is why they score 2 TDs less in their losses.
I understand your schtick here is arrogance but why jump into a discussion about what’s behind the numbers If you refuse to look behind the numbers?

We disagree, and nothing you have says comes close to changing the opinion I formed by actually digging in and researching the issue, so we will just leave it ther and agree to disagree.
Hopefully we aren’t spending tonight running and dumping off check forms on 2nd down so we can live and die with needing to convert a ton of 3rd downs, because we will lose.
Play mistake free and win.

Turn the ball over/jump offsides/miss blocking assignments/lose contain on the edge and lose.

This ^ is true versus good and bad teams alike, but especially against the best teams.
 

State

In the Starting Line-Up
To boil it all down…

Offense - Shaky O-Line and no big play potential

Defense - Poor run stopping and can’t get off the field when they must make a stop

Special Teams - Worst I’ve seen in the Belichick era
Defenses have no deep threat to worry about. Instead of N’Keal Harry, insert another WR drafted after him that in hindsight we should have taken, and this offense has more juice.
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Play mistake free and win.

Turn the ball over/jump offsides/miss Offense needs a #1 guy. Wee are a team full of #2 receivers.
Offense needs a #1 guy. Wee are a team full of #2 receivers.

we need an “x”. Agular is fine at the “z”.

Bourne and Meyers can continue to split the slot,

we also need a gadget guy. A guy that is a match up nightmare. Wr/rb Robinson of Kentucky would be perfect for us!
 

PatsFan2

Pro Bowl Player
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
we need an “x”. Agular is fine at the “z”.

Bourne and Meyers can continue to split the slot,

we also need a gadget guy. A guy that is a match up nightmare. Wr/rb Robinson of Kentucky would be perfect for us!
Aguilar?? I hope we can move on from him he's waay too inconsistent for a former First Rounder.
 

Pats1971

In the Starting Line-Up
we had a hall of famer at QB
Well I know, but what I mean by that is. Bill has always kinda just put enough offense out there to compete he has always went heavy on defense. Drafts free agency. If he starts to change too much the other way its going to get him out of what made him successful . Teams that stack the offense and kinda forget about the defense tend to fade off pretty quick.
 

zimmy

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
The biggest issue is that we are paying Jonnu Smith to be the centre piece of the offense but he doesn't get targeted as he is a poor route runner with bad hands. He's the TE version of Harry, requiring schemed touches with anything else looking in danger of a turnover. That contract is going to hamstring the offense next year. Agholor's cap number ($15m) is also not in line with his production. We need to find a high end WR somehow.
 

Pats1971

In the Starting Line-Up
The biggest issue is that we are paying Jonnu Smith to be the centre piece of the offense but he doesn't get targeted as he is a poor route runner with bad hands. He's the TE version of Harry, requiring schemed touches with anything else looking in danger of a turnover. That contract is going to hamstring the offense next year. Agholor's cap number ($15m) is also not in line with his production. We need to find a high end WR somehow.
Jonnu is a 40 catch 400 yard guy, that has been what he is since he came in the league. I am not sure why people thought he was some kind of TE freak coming to the pats. Last year was his best season ever. He was targeted 65 times he caught 41, this year he was targeted 45 times and caught 28. His average receptions in the 4 years before he got here was 28.5. When Bill paid him all that money, I thought at the time...he must be a hell of a blocker.
 

FCB02062

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
enough w the wr1, wr2 crap....how about just some talent? bill the GM has shown HE WILL NOT acquire top end talent at the position unless it's a cheap trade (moss, Welker) or reclamation project (a brown, Gordon, Chad Johnson). so let's dispel this wr1 foolishness.
I'm pretty sure coach bill or one of his acolyte was quoted as indicating that he does not believe in spending capital on the "exterior".
it's going to have to be a jackpot hut on a third Rd receiver or some mid level fa guy just happens to click w Mac Jones. I've said it a million times, coach bill wants to win 20-17 and he's not putting anything else into the offense since he dropped alot of dough on that side of the ball last year
 

jal

Practice Squad Player
I think the coaching staff maximized an average talent pool and it resulted in good looking aggregate stats but failure in key situations where big time players step up. That's not on the coaching staff to fix (other than helping the young players develop further to achieve their potential), that's on the GM to fix.
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
I think the coaching staff maximized an average talent pool and it resulted in good looking aggregate stats but failure in key situations where big time players step up. That's not on the coaching staff to fix (other than helping the young players develop further to achieve their potential), that's on the GM to fix.

Generally agree, though I think that Brick should've done a better job with the OL... He's a massive, Massive down-grade from Scar... maybe even from Googs...
 

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