Amendola signed - 5 years

[Rob0729]

But what indications are there that Welker won't be playing at a high level over the next few years?

Although Welker had a very good year this year, his production dropped from the year before. Granted he still had a great year, but his YPC, YAC, and TDs were down from the year before and he dropped a lot of balls (I think it was the most drops of his career when he has been pretty steady handed during his career).

Doesn't necessarily mean he is declining and just could be that after having his best year of his career, he went back down to close to his average production this past year. In fact, the only thing that really bother me this year was his drops. But it also could be a start of a decline.

The problem with receivers like Welker is they usually hit the age wall hard and fast and relatively young. He has taken a lot of abuse and sometimes it is an overnight thing.

Welker could be an 100 catch guy for the next three years, but he could hit the age wall this upcoming season too. That is the gamble the Broncos are taking. For the money they are spending, it is worth the gamble because of the upside.

 

[patfanken]

After some consideration, here are my thoughts on the Welker-Amendola situation

• Despite being sad to see Welker leave (especially to the Broncos) I'm pleased with the replacement given he can perform Welker's role. Note perform the role of a slot receiver.
• I'm hopeful that Amendola isn't as productive as Welker but can perform the same role required of Welker. It is my hope that will mean the Patriots have a more balanced (i.e. the addition of a reliable vertical receiving threat) and evenly spread offense.
• It's clear the Patriots were intent on phasing Welker out as the go-to-man early in the season. Hernandez getting injured necessitated the switch back to Welker as a focal point.
• I'm also hopeful that the spread of money will be used to attract defensive talent to distribute the talent more evenly.

Overall, it still cuts me to the core that Welker is now a Bronco but I'm keeping the big picture in mind. If the loss of Welker, albeit strengthening a rival allows the Patriots to get better as a sum of whole parts, then so be it.

Aussie, this should be required reading fro every Pats fan. Its should be a sticky for the next 2 weeks.

It gives Wes his due and respect for his work her, yet shows the understanding that the Pats offense is going to change to a certain extent and the Amendola acquisition is the first step to that change. You also acknowledge that all of this is by design, and like it or not, the decision makers have earned the right to make them.

Kudos

 

[Deus Irae]

Although Welker had a very good year this year, his production dropped from the year before. Granted he still had a great year, but his YPC, YAC, and TDs were down from the year before and he dropped a lot of balls (I think it was the most drops of his career when he has been pretty steady handed during his career)...

C'mon, now, let's be fair....

Last year was his career high in YPC. Why would it be surprising that there was a decline this year? This year was his second highest YPC as a member of the Patriots.

TDs with the Patriots: 8/3/4/7/9/6, so this season was in line with his normal production.

 

[Ring 6]

But what indications are there that Welker won't be playing at a high level over the next few years?

I think the fact that Bill Belichick who knows him best was willing to pay almost 10 mill a year ago and now is unwilling to pay 12mill for TWO years, is an indication that he sees something. Its pretty obvious that BB sees him differently than he did a year ago.
I know there was talk during the season that Welker was having vision issues, and he did drop more passes this year than ever before, so that would be another indication that decline may be upon us. Not saying its a fact, but you ask for indications.

 

[Rob0729]

C'mon, now, let's be fair....

Last year was his career high in YPC. Why would it be surprising that there was a decline this year? This year was his second highest YPC as a member of the Patriots.

TDs with the Patriots: 8/3/4/7/9/6, so this season was in line with his normal production.

I stated that in the next paragraph of my post that you quoted from:

Doesn't necessarily mean he is declining and just could be that after having his best year of his career, he went back down to close to his average production this past year.

Again, as I said in that post, the one concern I have about him and it is a fairly significant concern is the drops he had this season. And as I said, it could have been a fluke year and he could be the sure handed Welker next year or it could be a sign of age and wear and tear seeping in.

 

[Ring 6]

Although Welker had a very good year this year, his production dropped from the year before. Granted he still had a great year, but his YPC, YAC, and TDs were down from the year before and he dropped a lot of balls (I think it was the most drops of his career when he has been pretty steady handed during his career).

Doesn't necessarily mean he is declining and just could be that after having his best year of his career, he went back down to close to his average production this past year. In fact, the only thing that really bother me this year was his drops. But it also could be a start of a decline.

The problem with receivers like Welker is they usually hit the age wall hard and fast and relatively young. He has taken a lot of abuse and sometimes it is an overnight thing.

Welker could be an 100 catch guy for the next three years, but he could hit the age wall this upcoming season too. That is the gamble the Broncos are taking. For the money they are spending, it is worth the gamble because of the upside.

A year ago BB franchised Welker at almost 10mill.
Today he wouldn't give him 12 mill for 2 years.
Its pretty obvious that BBs opinion of Welker changed in the last 12 months.
I think its pretty clear he is in a better position to predict when the decline will come than us.

 

[Ring 6]

I see people saying they like the move. Does this mean you would choose Amendola over Welker in this situation? I understand people are going to back their team, and that's fine. I'm just curious how much of it is that and how much of it is real.

Welker vs Amendola is a no brainer.

Welker at 32 vs Amendola at 27 PLUS what is still to come, isn't so easy.

There is little doubt that Welkers best days are behind him and Amendola's are ahead of him, so its not an easy question to answer.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Middle finger to Welker. $6.1M a year.

5 years, $31M, $10M guaranteed

I am starting to think that there was some PERSONAL feelings of dislike between Welker and the Patriots. Maybe it did start with the benching to start off the season. Or maybe it went as far back as Welker getting benched after making the Rex Ryan 'foot' jokes.

Either way, it is a sad day that Welker is no longer in New England. And it appears it wasn't the money because the Pats were willing to give the same amount, even a little more to Amendola.

Hopefully this works out for the best. But I wish I knew the inside story on why Welker was run out of town. Was it performance based or was it something of a more personal nature?

 

[ausbacker]

This all make a lot of sense....

...if Welker got $8 or $9m per from the Broncos.

Most of the reaction is about the $6m per he received. At that price, you keep Welker AND improve the D, etc.

I agree, the price is a contentious issue and Denver is a great fit for Wes Welker. That said, there's a plan in place and rather than looking at this move in isolation, I'd like to see the rest of it unfold before I grab my pitch fork.

Aussie, this should be required reading fro every Pats fan. Its should be a sticky for the next 2 weeks.

It gives Wes his due and respect for his work her, yet shows the understanding that the Pats offense is going to change to a certain extent and the Amendola acquisition is the first step to that change. You also acknowledge that all of this is by design, and like it or not, the decision makers have earned the right to make them.

Kudos

Believe me ken, it's taken me roughly four hours or so to move from FFS Welker at that price is gone to Amendola at that reasonable and long term contract is in.

To me, it feels like the Patriots have sacrificed a rook to win a queen.

 

[Deus Irae]

I stated that in the next paragraph of my post that you quoted from:



Again, as I said in that post, the one concern I have about him and it is a fairly significant concern is the drops he had this season. And as I said, it could have been a fluke year and he could be the sure handed Welker next year or it could be a sign of age and wear and tear seeping in.

But you were responding to a question about indications. Neither thing I pointed to is an indication of anything except a normal Welker season. His 118 catches were only 5 off of his career high and, if he'd been used as usual in the first game and a half, he might have come closer to, or exceeded, the 123. That's why I talked about being fair. Not matching career highs is not an indication of an overall decline.

 

[Rob0729]

But you were responding to a question about indications. Neither thing I pointed to is an indication of anything except a normal Welker season. His 118 catches were only 5 off of his career high and, if he'd been used as usual in the first game and a half, he might have come closer to, or exceeded, the 123. That's why I talked about being fair. Not matching career highs is not an indication of decline.

Again, it could be an indication or not. Tough to tell based on one year. It is a possible indication.

The drops on the other hand are a much more certain indication although not guaranteed certainty.

Again, WRs like Welker hit the age wall fast and hard and relatively young. The signs are not likely to be obvious. He will likely go from a 100 catch, 1100-1300 receiver one year to a 40 catch, 800 yard receiver the next. Sometimes the smallest signs like dropped balls or a slight drop in production are all you get as indicators.

Although I hope the Broncos lose every game, I hope Welker is a 100 catch guy for the next 3-4 years so he has at least an outside shot at the HOF. So I hope I am wrong about it being an indicator. I will always be a Welker fan even if he is in the Broncos uniform.

 

[Deus Irae]

Again, it could be an indication or not. Tough to tell based on one year. It is a possible indication.

The drops on the other hand are a much more certain indication although not guaranteed certainty.

Again, WRs like Welker hit the age wall fast and hard and relatively young. The signs are not likely to be obvious. He will likely go from a 100 catch, 1100-1300 receiver one year to a 40 catch, 800 yard receiver the next. Sometimes the smallest signs like dropped balls or a slight drop in production are all you get as indicators.

Although I hope the Broncos lose every game, I hope Welker is a 100 catch guy for the next 3-4 years so he has at least an outside shot at the HOF. So I hope I am wrong about it being an indicator. I will always be a Welker fan even if he is in the Broncos uniform.

All I was saying was that some of the things you were pointing to couldn't fairly be pointed to as indications. Pointing to YPC when it's his second best as a Patriot is not pointing to an indicator, is all I was trying to get across. I didn't bother looking up YAC, because that's a variable stat that can be about the player or about several other things (no Gronk and Hernandez = much more focus on Welker by opponents, for example), so I couldn't rule it out as a fair possibility, and the drops are fair to question, so I had no issue with that being brought up.

 

[Rob0729]

All I was saying was that some of the things you were pointing to couldn't fairly be pointed to as indications. Pointing to YPC when it's his second best as a Patriot is not pointing to an indicator, is all I was trying to get across. I didn't bother looking up YAC, because that's a variable stat that can be about the player or about several other things (no Gronk and Hernandez = much more focus on Welker by opponents, for example), so I couldn't rule it out as a fair possibility, and the drops are fair to question, so I had no issue with that being brought up.

Whenever an oder player's production falls from one year to the next even if the fallen production is closer to their average. It could be an indicator of a decline of production because of age. Unfortunately, it is impossible to tell if it is or 2011 being a fluke year until the next year. It is probably not an indicator, but neither you nor I know for sure if it is or isn't. I have never said it definitely was or even probably was.

 

[Deus Irae]

Whenever an oder player's production falls from one year to the next even if the fallen production is closer to their average. It could be an indicator of a decline of production because of age. Unfortunately, it is impossible to tell if it is or 2011 being a fluke year until the next year. It is probably not an indicator, but neither you nor I know for sure if it is or isn't. I have never said it definitely was or even probably was.

It was off career year numbers, and was higher than every other year as a Patriots. It's not an indication of anything other than it not being a career year, just as Brady not getting 50 TDs after 2007 was never a sign of decline, in any year. The stats of players don't remain static, regardless of whether or not they are in their primes.

Yes, it's fair to look at YAC and wonder, if it's a significant drop off from a non-career year. Yes, it's fair to look at the drops, since they are trending. No, it's not fair to look at YPC or TDs. You put them out there as possible indications when that's not a fair assessment. Both are clearly well within expected and acceptable limits.

 

[Joker]

2 years ago...Super Bowl...tough catch...BUT it did hit his hands....that play cost them the Bowl

last year...I SAW him drop a catch that HAS TO BE MADE in a playoff game...I was 20 yards away...he makes that catch and it's anything can happen day...that drop HURT them..you could see it...not only that, he dropped an easy catch on a crossing route near midfield...they punted.

I can't speak for the mindset of the Patriots coaching staff...perhaps they thought the mounting number of hard hits Welker was taking every season had reached a tipping point at age 32....perhaps he pi$$ed off the wrong Kraft with one of his off the cuff comments. Right now who knows...it will all come out eventually anyway.

 

[Tunescribe]

2 years ago...Super Bowl...tough catch...BUT it did hit his hands....that play cost them the Bowl

last year...I SAW him drop a catch that HAS TO BE MADE in a playoff game...I was 20 yards away...he makes that catch and it's anything can happen day...that drop HURT them..you could see it...not only that, he dropped an easy catch on a crossing route near midfield...they punted.

I can't speak for the mindset of the Patriots coaching staff...perhaps they thought the mounting number of hard hits Welker was taking every season had reached a tipping point at age 32....perhaps he pi$$ed off the wrong Kraft with one of his off the cuff comments. Right now who knows...it will all come out eventually anyway.

I think it's plausible that Wes was concussed shortly before that drop in the Ravens playoff game. Which goes to your point (bolded) that he's possibly wearing down from all the tremendous punishment he's absorbed. But I don't think these notions of him pissing off BB or someone else in the organization have any real traction. BB wants to win more than anything and simply figured they can put together a BETTER team this year without Wes.

 

[shmessy]

Given his many, many screwups since 2007, you'll forgive me if I laugh at your troll posts.

11-5
10-6
14-2
13-3
12-4

So sad you've had to suffer so much since 2007. Go root for the Redskins, you'll enjoy their springtimes.

 

[Deus Irae]

11-5
10-6
14-2
13-3
12-4

So sad you've had to suffer so much since 2007. Go root for the Redskins, you'll enjoy their springtimes.

And another rises....

 

[NgataTroublemaker]

Welker had 96 catches and 1100 yards in two years without missing a game as a Fin. Amendola had 77 and 900+ yards in 4 years where he missed 22 games.

He also had Gus Frerotte and Joey Harrington throwing it to him. Bradford isn't awesome, but he is better than those two guys for sure.

That said, Brady and the rest of your offense will make Amendola look a lot better than he has looked, and he has looked pretty good (when on the field).

Other than for emotional reasons, I can't see how anyone can think this move is bad, let alone a disaster.

 

[Joker]

Other than for emotional reasons, I can't see how anyone can think this move is bad, let alone a disaster.

you keep reading this board and you'll see how eventually...heh