Alone atop the AFC at 11-3

[Ring 6]

I think Giants beats Jets

I agree..........

 

[eom]

That's another thing, glad you brought it up. What are the odds of beating the same team 3 straight times in the same season ? Not good.

according to who?

actually, the odds are very good if you check out the history.

 

[goheels22002]

Well, the Packers are the #1 seed in the NFC, and they have the 31st ranked defense in the league (by yards allowed, which is also how the Pats are ranked #32).

So the top teams in each conference have gotten there despite the two lowest ranked defenses in football.

Yards allowed is a weak statistic upon which to base a judgement of "best or worst" defense.

Both of these teams pummel their opposition and get big leads. The defense shifts to keeping everything in front of you and the opposing offenses abandon the time-consuming running game and start flinging it all over the joint. Opponents rack up yardage. So what?

Here are a few stats about the defenses of the Packers and Patriots to think about:

Opponent Scoring (a pretty good measure): The Patriots and Packers are tied at 14th in the NFL with giving up 297 points - ten points better than the NFL average of 306 points through 14 weeks. ( The 49ers are a ridiculous 185 - the only team under 200 points allowed.)

Opponent Rushing TDs: The Packers and Patriots are average in this category. The NFL average is 11 TDs allowed on the ground. the pats have given up 12 and the Packers have given up 10 - both less than one a game. these teams are tough in the Red Zone.

Field Goals against: The Pats and Packers are tied with the 49ers at #4 in the NFL in Field Goals allowed. Don't know what to make of this really, but interesting cluster of the top three teams in the NFL.

Interceptions: The Packers are #1 in the league with 27 interceptions and the Patriots are #4 in the NFL with 18 interceptions through 14 games. These two teams make the opposition throw the ball trying to come from behind and get takeaways.

Defensive Penalties: The Packers are #2 and the Patriots are #9 in 1st downs allowed on defensive penalties. They are making the opposition earn what they get and not handing the other team opportunities to keep drives alive.

The other statistical area where both teams excel is special teams defense. Both are top 10 in punt and kickoff return yardage allowed. The Patriots have not given up a TD in the kicking game and the Packers just one.

In lots of ways, these are two average defenses paired with great offenses.

 

[lamafist]

LOL that's still a superbowl champion defense and the pats can't even win a playoff game.

No, the 2010 Packers' defense was a SB champion defense.

Going into week 16, it's a bit silly to still be judging teams by what they were last year. 14 games into the season, I think it's safe to say that the falloff of the Packers' defense isn't a fluke. They are appreciably worse. By a lot.

Now, I haven't watched all of their games like I have the Pats, so I can't tell you exactly why, but they are missing Cullen Jenkins, Nick Barnett and Nick Collins from last year's defense. The latter two guys were last year's defensive signal-callers, I believe, so that could have something to do with it. Cullen Jenkins' loss means teams are more free to double B.J. Raji.

And finally, not sure why, but it's pretty clear that Chris Matthews isn't wreaking as much habit as he did last year. Maybe a diminished interior rush is allowing opponents to block Matthews into the backfield. Maybe Matthews isn't developing his secondary and tertiary rush moves that well, and having trouble adjusting to being the guy that opposing offenses are scheming to protect against.

Finally, maybe Charles Woodson is finally showing his age.

Whatever the case may be, the cumulative result couldn't be clearer: the 2011 Packers aren't much better at stopping their opponents than the 2011 Pats.

 

[eom]

yards allowed is a ridiculous stat to judge defenses by --- people just use this for the sensationalist value because the pats are last in this category.

the idea of yards allowed is to use it as a measure for predicting points allowed, which is all that matters --- so, why not just look at points allowed?
because pats aren't last in that stat.

it's like in the winter the last few years when everybody gives you the temp with wind chill already factored in to make the temp seem more exciting.

all that said, I'd rather be first in points allowed, but bottom line, I'd rather be winning than be first in any stat.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yards allowed is a weak statistic upon which to base a judgement of "best or worst" defense.

Yes, I know.

 

[TheGreatestEVER]

That's another thing, glad you brought it up. What are the odds of beating the same team 3 straight times in the same season ? Not good.

Actually the chances of a season sweep is 63% based on a 12-7 record since the merger.

Also two of those losses are the hapless Cowboys, so without them its a 71% chance of a sweep.

Just Saying!

 

[BradyFTW!]

LOL that's still a superbowl champion defense and the pats can't even win a playoff game.

They're still ranked 31st. Yardage rankings either matter or they don't. Pick your position--I don't care what it is--but at least try to be consistent rather than whining for reasons that you can't even articulate.

For the record, I think that the Pats' defense is bad. The Packers' defense is also bad. Their yardage rankings further suffer because they're paired with offenses that score a lot, creating garbage time situations where opposing teams rack up yardage.

 

[patsfan13]

I think we can all agree the the packers are still a very talented defense while the pats defense is untalented.

I agree with Parcells you are what your record says you are, Packers have given up the same number of points as the Pats.

So no they aren't vastly more talented group, especially all the injuries the PAts have suffered on the D this year.

 

[Ivan]

I think the Jets would be an easier road than Pitt then Balt or vice versa but is I still want the Jets to miss the play-offs for all the damage it would do to the organization going forward. Ryan really did get them to believe they were a great team when they really weren't but coaches who take that approach end up with a real problem when reality shows they are simply full of crap.

I wouldn't dismiss the Jets if they end up in Foxboro and I think it would be a fun game to watch but seeing them miss the play-offs or lose to the Patriots would be a happy ending.

 

[Ivan]

Not really because the Jets cannot beat a good team, and would certainly lose to Houston.

I really don't see how anyone can make a definitive statement about any play-off games this season, I don't see any team that can't get beat by anyone else, especially with key injuries all over the place. Every team is flawed.

I really hope the NFL takes a big step forward next year in terms of overall quality of play because this has been the worst year I can remember in terms of overall play, it has been really sloppy all the way around all season. 3 of the 4 best teams to this point ( G.B., N.E., N.O.) have played really poor defense all season and while the Steelers have been better defensively the have struggled against good teams and aren't as good offensively as the other 3. For those who would put the Ravens in the top 4 because of their wins over the Steelers they have been really erratic and have nowhere near as good an offense as the Patriots, Pack, and Saints. Same goes for S.F.

Right now I feel like the Saints are the most dangerous team in football because I believe the Packers OL is going to ruin their season for them, great QB's can overcome many problems but a bad OL neutralizes them. I really think it is easier to win a SB with a bad defense than it is a bad OL.

 

[Ivan]

I think Giants beats Jets

I have the same feeling although both are so erratic it's hard to know who will show up.

 

[Ivan]

All this angst over a team that won't make the playoffs.

The only reason the Patriots lost to the Jets last year is they took them too lightly after blowing them out 45-3. Hell, Wes Welker was cracking jokes about the coach's wife. What does that tell ya?

Belichik was completely outcoached in that game and Brady was off, they got beat and deserved it.

 

[DarrylS]

I do not want the Jets to make the playoff, and shut up their idiot head coach.. let the fans have thei way with him on the airwaves.. the more this happens, the more they realize what an absolute idiot he is.

 

[jays52]

In reference the defense I think it's worth mentioning that there are only three stats that matter. Scoring, red zone, and takeaways. You can throw all the other ones out.

 

[Rob0729]

In reference the defense I think it's worth mentioning that there are only three stats that matter. Scoring, red zone, and takeaways. You can throw all the other ones out.

The Pats are average to above average in all those stats. The Pats are 14th best scoring defense, the 13th best red zone defense (only Baltimore is better in the potential AFC playoff competitors), and 3rd best in turnover differential (they are third or fourth in Interceptions).

 

[Rob0729]

I think Giants beats Jets

If the good Giants show up, they will easily handle the Jets. The problem is that the Giants are too Jeckyl and Hyde. They play the Packers tough all the way and then beat the Cowboys and then get squashed by the Redskins the next week.

Both teams are wildly inconsistent. The Giants are at least have shown over the season that they can beat good teams at times. I hear that both Jake Ballard and Osi Umenyoria might not play this weekend. The Giants need at least Ballard to play. Ballard could eat apart the middle of the field because Revis will probably be on Cruz and Cromartie on Nicks. Or visa vera. The Jets can't cover TEs.

 

[cstjohn17]

Things are looking good, if they can close the deal and win the conference the Patriots won't have to get on a plane until February when they fly to Indy.

Over a month of sleeping in their own bed... pretty sweet deal for the players.

12/24 - vs. Miami (Home)
1/1 - vs. Buffalo (Home)
1/7 - Wildcard - BYE
1/15 - Divisional Playoff (Home)
1/22 - Conference Championship (Home)
2/5 - Superbowl (Indy)

 

[coolguy]

Interesting theory. Let's look at likely playoff teams and consider the games played in nothing worse than chilly weather. Under those conditions, which teams do you think have a clear overall matchup edge against the Patriots?

Steelers
Ravens
Texans
Chargers
Raiders
Broncos
Titans
Jets
Bengals

Tom plays great in the snow while all those qbs (excluding ben) are not bad whether throwers. Force them to run and the pats have a great chance to make it to the superbowl.

 

[mvrabel50]

In reference the defense I think it's worth mentioning that there are only three stats that matter. Scoring, red zone, and takeaways. You can throw all the other ones out.

You dont think that the amount of yards you let up has any indication on how good/bad your defense is? I understand that at the end of the game it's all about who scores more points, but yards will eventually lead to points.