Alex Barth's post-OTAs "way too early" roster projection

[Real fan 02]

Thank you thank you thank you. I hate that borne contract just as much as you do. He showed me zero leadership last year. If you can't be on the field help your teammates. That was what Bourne was advertised as; a jovial good teammate who was never gonna light the nfl world on fire.

That 2nd contract was malfeasance. Mapu can follow him on the way out. I'm not convinced about our linebackers at all either

Kendrick Bourne | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Kendrick Bourne contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

He is making 5 million this season. There have been far worse contracts...

 

[signbabybrady]

Per the CBA all UDFA rookies get 3-year deals. Also, so far, they've only paid him $25K in signing bonus. They also guaranteed his rookie PS salary, but any salary he earns this year from any team counts against that figure.

Efton Chism signed a three-year rookie deal with the New England Patriots that includes $234,000 in guaranteed base salary and a $25,000 signing bonus. This makes his deal the richest among the Patriots' undrafted rookies and includes more guaranteed money than their seventh-round draft picks, according to Yahoo Sports

I was off on the numbers, this is the actual deal.

Good info and my analysis on this is that in a weird way this somewhat makes it even more likely he'll end up at least in our Practice Squad.

He would have to be paid more or put on another teams 53 otherwise it would make sense for him to stay on our Practice Squad and continue the work he put in during our TC. If he plays well enough that another team would claim him then he likely would make out 53 and if he doesn't who at that point is giving him more money than we already have?

 

[Real fan 02]

Good info and my analysis on this is that in a weird way this somewhat makes it even more likely he'll end up at least in our Practice Squad.

He would have to be paid more or put on another teams 53 otherwise it would make sense for him to stay on our Practice Squad and continue the work he put in during our TC. If he plays well enough that another team would claim him then he likely would make out 53 and if he doesn't who at that point is giving him more money than we already have?

Vrabel gave him the most guaranteed money for and UDFA. Wich is a sign they like him of course, and have big plans for him. While I like him and how he's acclimated himself during OTAS and minicamp. I want to see how he does in camp, joint practices.. to me that tells us more than a vanilla preseason game where no one is game planning or scheming.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good info and my analysis on this is that in a weird way this somewhat makes it even more likely he'll end up at least in our Practice Squad.

He would have to be paid more or put on another teams 53 otherwise it would make sense for him to stay on our Practice Squad and continue the work he put in during our TC. If he plays well enough that another team would claim him then he likely would make out 53 and if he doesn't who at that point is giving him more money than we already have?

Unlike in the past, players who would be on rookie contracts can no longer be paid higher PS salaries to entice them to stay; their salaries are fixed by the CBA. (A veteran can negotiate within a narrow range.)

 

[Huckleberry1]

Unlike in the past, players who would be on rookie contracts can no longer be paid higher PS salaries to entice them to stay; their salaries are fixed by the CBA. (A veteran can negotiate within a narrow range.)

Appreciate the information, I didn’t know about any of this.

 

[signbabybrady]

Unlike in the past, players who would be on rookie contracts can no longer be paid higher PS salaries to entice them to stay; their salaries are fixed by the CBA. (A veteran can negotiate within a narrow range.)

I'm a little confused? So all the guarantees are only guaranteed if he makes the 53? Otherwise in the practice squad he makes the same here as anywhere else?

Or is it the other way we already paid him that much so we lose it anyway if he's not on the 53?

 

[mgteich]

It’s also a matter of who can contribute on special teams, which Chism excels at, and Douglas has shown some ability to do. Hollins is a good special teams player. Boutte, Polk, and Baker provide nothing in that regard, neither does Diggs. I don’t know if Williams can play ST’s.

I disagree.

Contributing to Special Teams is not relevant if a player isn't active.

The active 4 need to the best WR's we can put on the field.

I'm fine if one can play Special Teams, unless the player is a starting returner or starting punt protector.

 

[mgteich]

I'm a little confused? So all the guarantees are only guaranteed if he makes the 53? Otherwise in the practice squad he makes the same here as anywhere else?

Or is it the other way we already paid him that much so we lose it anyway if he's not on the 53?

IMO, no UDFA is making the team because of the amount of his UDFA money.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm a little confused? So all the guarantees are only guaranteed if he makes the 53? Otherwise in the practice squad he makes the same here as anywhere else?

Or is it the other way we already paid him that much so we lose it anyway if he's not on the 53?

1. UDFA guarantees basically say "No matter what happens in training camp, we guarantee that you will be paid $X in salary by someone this season." Anything Chism earns in weekly salary this season counts, regardless of the team he's on, and both 53-man rosters and PS rosters count.

2. Every rookie PS player this year will make exactly $13K a week, or $234K for the season. If they are elevated to the 53, they get around $50K per game instead of that $13K.

3. As I mentioned earlier, the Patriots have only paid him $25K signing bonus so far. No matter what, though, some team* will be paying him another $234K** this season. [*Hopefully NE. **Hopefully a lot more.]

The only way a team gets screwed by an UDFA guarantee is if they suck so badly that no one wants them on a PS (as happened with Iggles UDFA QB Carson Strong in 2022).

 

[Huckleberry1]

I disagree.

Contributing to Special Teams is not relevant if a player isn't active.

The active 4 need to the best WR's we can put on the field.

I'm fine if one can play Special Teams, unless the player is a starting returner or starting punt protector.

We disagree on this. They need guys from the DB and WR units who can be active to play ST’s, and Hollins and Chism will have the edge for this active roles. Douglas can return kicks as well, and that helps him. So if 5 are active then Boutte is going to be the odd man out imo.

 

[mgteich]

We disagree on this. They need guys from the DB and WR units who can be active to play ST’s, and Hollins and Chism will have the edge for this active roles. Douglas can return kicks as well, and that helps him. So if 5 are active then Boutte is going to be the odd man out imo.

OK, I overstated my point.
The starting three receivers need to have ZERO special teams skills. If 4 are active, one of the four would likely be expected to play a lot of special teams.
If 5 WR's are active, I would suspect that we changed coaches when I wasn't paying attention, unless the WR is "in name only' (think Slater).
=========
Personally, I think that Boutte has a considerable advantage on several of the others. He might be OK starting if one of the starters is out. Bourne can the outside, downfield threat.

 

[BobDigital]

I'm still trying to find a real reason how Hollins makes this roster.. he hasn't practiced, or participated in drills. Other than walking around the facilities barefoot and giving bro hugs.. what has he done? Diggs has participated and he's a proven all pro coming off an ACL.

I think Chism is going to keep getting better and better and of Hollins does remain he likely ends up on PUP/IR. Let's see if he puts his best foot forward!

Hollins may be IR'd. Who knows... As for a real why he makes it? Mostly his size and veteran leadership. I don't think Vrabel likes the idea of Diggs being the sole veteran presence in that room if he cuts Bourne (which i think he should due to contract issues). Also he is a very good blocking WR, and since we invested in a new RB they probably like that aspect of his game. So he adds a lot of things this room lacks. For now i have him as a lock... but it is conditional on his ability to still play and that he hasn't lost a step or anything. Also the fact he is virtually entirely paid for for year 1 does matter.

So Hollins is probably a lock to stick on the roster even if it is only as an IR'd guy who comes back later. The question of liking the signing in the first place is a fair one though. And the contract was for sure questionable IMO. Did they need to pay that much in guaranteed money to get him? Did he have THAT many suitors? I don't think so.

To me this is a rare case of Vrabel allowing a personal relationship to get in the way of business. I think that is a fair criticism.

 

[Huckleberry1]

OK, I overstated my point.
The starting three receivers need to have ZERO special teams skills. If 4 are active, one of the four would likely be expected to play a lot of special teams.
If 5 WR's are active, I would suspect that we changed coaches when I wasn't paying attention, unless the WR is "in name only' (think Slater).
=========
Personally, I think that Boutte has a considerable advantage on several of the others. He might be OK starting if one of the starters is out. Bourne can the outside, downfield threat.

I think Bourne is going to be playing somewhere else this season. They aren’t going to cut a young receiver to keep him for a year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

OK, I overstated my point.
The starting three receivers need to have ZERO special teams skills. If 4 are active, one of the four would likely be expected to play a lot of special teams.
If 5 WR's are active, I would suspect that we changed coaches when I wasn't paying attention, unless the WR is "in name only' (think Slater).
=========
Personally, I think that Boutte has a considerable advantage on several of the others. He might be OK starting if one of the starters is out. Bourne can the outside, downfield threat.

I think Diggs and Williams will be their top 2 receivers in terms of snaps on the season, but I don’t think this receiver unit is on a 1-5 ( or 6) scale. I think they are going to break down into roles and play according to match ups and those roles. I don’t think any of them are going to be out there all the time, I think they are going to be mixed and matched throughout games and the season.

 

[Wozzy]

My guess at a projected 53... nothing’s changed from a few weeks ago.

OFFENSE (25)
QB (2) – Drake Maye, Josh Dobbs, Ben Wooldridge(PS),
LT (2) – Will Campbell, Marcus Bryant,
LG (2) – Cole Strange, Sidy Sow,
C (2) – Garrett Bradbury, Jared Wilson,
RG (1) – Michael Onwenu, Layden Robinson (PS),
RT (2) – Morgan Moses, Caedan Wallace, Demontrey Jacobs (PS),
TE (4) – Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, CJ Dippre, Jaheim Bell (FB),
BIG RB (2) – Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson,
FAST RB (2) – TreVeyon Henderson, Lan Larison,
BIG WR (2) – Stefon Diggs, Kendrick Bourne/Mack Hollins,
FAST WR (2) – Kyle Williams, DeMeer Blankumsee,
SLOT WR (2) – Demario Douglas, Efton Chism,

DEFENSE (25)
DT (4) – Christian Barmore, Khyiris Tonga, Joshua Farmer, Jahvaree Ritzie,
DE (2) – Milton Williams, Keion White,
SLB (5) – Harold Landry, Anfernee Jennings, K'Lavon Chaisson, Bradyn Swinson, Elijah Ponder,
MLB (3) – Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens,
WLB (1) – Christian Elliss,
SS (5) – Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Marte Mapu, Marcus Epps, Brenden Schooler,
FS (1) – Craig Woodson,
BIG CB (3) – Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Miles Battle,
SLOT CB (2) – Marcus Jones, Marcellas Dial,

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
K (1) – Andres Borregales/Parker Romo,
P (1) – Bryce Baringer,
LS (1) – Julian Ashby,

I had a hard time deciding who would get the final OL roster spot between Wallace, Robinson and Jacobs, like I said before... whoever shows up 10-15 pounds heavier with muscle. They brought small school OL Cole Birdow in, thought they should have signed and developed him.

Choose your kicker I don't care.

One of Bourne/Hollins should make it, it should probably be Bourne but Hollins might be Josh's binkie... shades of Ferentz. Blankumsee or Webb also making it at WR is probably wishful thinking considering the failure rate among rookie WR's, but this team could use more speed there.

 

[mgteich]

I think Bourne is going to be playing somewhere else this season. They aren’t going to cut a young receiver to keep him for a year.

CONTRACTS ENDING IN 2026
Bourne
Douglas
Boutee
=======
If you believe that the younger players will perform better in 2025 and 2026, just say so.

ALL of the three are free agents after the 2026 season. To me, their age isn't relevant.

 

[Huckleberry1]

CONTRACTS ENDING IN 2026
Bourne
Douglas
Boutee
=======
If you believe that the younger players will perform better in 2025 and 2026, just say so.

ALL of the three are free agents after the 2026 season. To me, their age isn't relevant.

To me their age is relevant. I would keep both Douglas and Boutte over Bourne, but I still think Boutte is on the bubble because he doesn’t play special teams. I would also take into account Boutte’s opinion of himself, which could make resigning him problematic. I actually like Bourne, but I believe age and contract work against him making this team.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Hollins may be IR'd. Who knows... As for a real why he makes it? Mostly his size and veteran leadership. I don't think Vrabel likes the idea of Diggs being the sole veteran presence in that room if he cuts Bourne (which i think he should due to contract issues). Also he is a very good blocking WR, and since we invested in a new RB they probably like that aspect of his game. So he adds a lot of things this room lacks. For now i have him as a lock... but it is conditional on his ability to still play and that he hasn't lost a step or anything. Also the fact he is virtually entirely paid for for year 1 does matter.

The Pats knew of the injury when they signed Hollins, and it is doubtful they signed him if he is going to miss camp.

So Hollins is probably a lock to stick on the roster even if it is only as an IR'd guy who comes back later. The question of liking the signing in the first place is a fair one though. And the contract was for sure questionable IMO. Did they need to pay that much in guaranteed money to get him? Did he have THAT many suitors? I don't think so.

To me this is a rare case of Vrabel allowing a personal relationship to get in the way of business. I think that is a fair criticism.

I think this is a Josh signing, not Vrabel, and I highly doubt they overpaid for no reason. Hollins was signed early on which is indication that there were other suitors, and Hollins is a good, above average guy that played well in Josh's system in LV.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I think Diggs and Williams will be their top 2 receivers in terms of snaps on the season, but I don’t think this receiver unit is on a 1-5 ( or 6) scale. I think they are going to break down into roles and play according to match ups and those roles. I don’t think any of them are going to be out there all the time, I think they are going to be mixed and matched throughout games and the season.

Hollins is the best blocking WR, so he is on the field for the running plays (roughly 50%), plus some of the passing plays. Williams will not have a higher snap count than Hollins.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Hollins may be IR'd. Who knows... As for a real why he makes it? Mostly his size and veteran leadership. I don't think Vrabel likes the idea of Diggs being the sole veteran presence in that room if he cuts Bourne (which i think he should due to contract issues). Also he is a very good blocking WR, and since we invested in a new RB they probably like that aspect of his game. So he adds a lot of things this room lacks. For now i have him as a lock... but it is conditional on his ability to still play and that he hasn't lost a step or anything. Also the fact he is virtually entirely paid for for year 1 does matter.

So Hollins is probably a lock to stick on the roster even if it is only as an IR'd guy who comes back later. The question of liking the signing in the first place is a fair one though. And the contract was for sure questionable IMO. Did they need to pay that much in guaranteed money to get him? Did he have THAT many suitors? I don't think so.

To me this is a rare case of Vrabel allowing a personal relationship to get in the way of business. I think that is a fair criticism.

2 years, $8.4M, with $3.5M guaranteed is not an insane overvaluation IMO.