AFCCG practice news: Patriots & Jaguars (edit)

[PatsBoy12]

@PatsBoy12
We've kind veered OT, but just so everyone's on the same page WRT RB pay ...

Top 25 RUNNING BACK APY's thru contract year
(AGE = age when current contract was signed)
*(playoff team)

*(PIT) Bell = $12.1M - UFA (franchise tag) ... (AGE 25)

*(ATL) Freeman = $8.25M thru 2022 (recently extended) ... (AGE 25)
*(BUF) McCoy = $8.0M thru 2019 ... (AGE 27)

(TBY) Martin = $7.15M thru 2020 ... (AGE 27)

*(JAX) Fournette = $6.79M thru 2020 (rookie contract)
(HOU) Miller = $6.5M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
*(JAX) Ivory = $6.4M thru 2020 ... (AGE 28)
*(TEN) D. Murray = $6.38M thru 2019 ... (AGE 28)
(DAL) Elliot = $6.24M thru 2019 (rookie contract)

(CIN) Bernard = $5.17M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
*(MIN) L. Murray = $5.0M thru 2019 ... (AGE 27)

*(PHL) Sproles = $4.5M - UFA ... (AGE 33)
(OAK) Lynch = $4.5M thru 2018 ... (AGE 31)
(DEN) Anderson = $4.5M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
*(CAR) McCaffrey = $4.31M thru 2020 (rookie contract)
(SEA) Lacy = $4.25M - UFA ... (AGE 27)
(NYG) Vereen = $4.12M - UFA ... (AGE 26)
(IND) Gore = $4.0M - UFA ... (AGE 32)
(NYJ) Forte = $4.0M thru 2018 ... (AGE 31)
*(CAR) Stewart = $4.0M thru 2018 ... (AGE 30)
*(NOL) Ingram = $4.0M thru 2018 ... (AGE 26)
*(Pats) WHITE = $4.0M thru 2020 (recently extended) ... (AGE 25)

(DET) Riddick = $3.85M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
(NYJ) Powell = $3.75M thru 2018 ... (AGE 27)
#25 (WAS) Thompson = $3.5M thru 2019 ... (AGE 27)
----------
Other Pats' RBs and current ages ...
#28 GILLISLEE = $3.2M thru 2018 ... (AGE 27)
#29 BURKHEAD = $3.15M - UFA ... (AGE 27)
#40 LEWIS = $1.5M - UFA ... (AGE 27)
#70 BOLDEN = $775k - UFA ... (AGE 27)

What's interesting is look at the amount that Sproles made at 33 (though he was injured). Lewis could easily make that at 28 with the season he's having. Let's say he saves his best for MIN if we get there . . . do the Pats pay that, I wonder? I'm not the best when it comes to salary type stuff, so I have no clue. I just know it's not a position they've recently cared to overextend on financially. But luuked mentioned they can cut Gillislee with no penalty. Maybe they'll look at that as an option if they really want to keep Lewis around, which I hope they do.

 

[PatsFan2]

I hear you. But wasn't that a product of the injuries? Do you think he'd have received the same number of touches had Burkhead not been injured? Because it seemed to me that Burkhead was getting the kinds of touches Lewis started to receive only after Burkhead was injured.

We all love Rex but let us admit that as Great as he's been he's also been on the shelf some. Durability might be an issue with him... I want Dion Lewis to be extended first superior to player to Burkhead nuff said! Dion Lewis = L. Bell pt.II

 

[Deus Irae]

I thought using words like "probably" and "at least I feel strongly" would indicate that I'm not sure and I'm just spitballing. At no point did I say I knew for sure of what would happen. The people I responded seemed to be stating it as if it will happen for sure. At least that was my interpretation.

Nobody in this thread was claiming to be speaking directly to BB. Everyone understands that, on an opinion board, you generally strive to offer the most reasoned opinions you can muster. If everyone has to start putting "IMO" or the equivalent before every obvious opinion, the internet is going to somehow find a way to run out of those letters.


IMO

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Given Lewis's injury history he'd be crazy to do anything other than chase the biggest guaranteed $$ he can find out there.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Nobody in this thread was claiming to be speaking directly to BB. Everyone understands that, on an opinion board, you generally strive to offer the most reasoned opinions you can muster. If everyone has to start putting "IMO" or the equivalent before every obvious opinion, the internet is going to somehow find a way to run out of those letters.


IMO

And that's not the point I was trying to make either. But cool. I hear you. Thanks for letting me know. I'll do better next time, coach. (not an opinion)

 

[PatsBoy12]

Given Lewis's injury history he'd be crazy to do anything other than chase the biggest guaranteed $$ he can find out there.

I agree. And I think it could be possible that some team could want to give him something significant. Again, I have no idea what WILL happen. I'm just saying I think he's put together a fantastic season and would maybe think about (and should) cashing in on it if the opportunity to do so is there. I was more or less just exploring what I feel is a very real possibility, though I know nothing for certain.

 

[BlueThunder]

With White already under contract I believe Burkhead and Lewis would be the 2 other key RB signings that BB would pursue. Bolden would probably sign a HT discount type unless some other team blows him away, but I don't thionk there is a ton of interest in a #5 ST RB...... Agree that using Gillislee's savings( if he is cut ) to re-sign others would be money put to good use. BB usually can find RB's off UDFA or other team's cuts to fill in as #4 RB...but what do I know about BB's thought process when building a team

 

[RobertWeathers]

Given Lewis's injury history he'd be crazy to do anything other than chase the biggest guaranteed $$ he can find out there.

Without a doubt.

Pats gave Gillislee 1.5m guaranteed.

Pats gave $1.1m to Bulkhead

Pats gave White $4.69 guaranteed.

I gotta think he'll be in the White dept plus escalators.

 

[maineman209]

Not the half that was paying attention.

Dion Lewis has been the starting RB every game he's been here, when he's fully healthy. He doesn't get taken off the field for fumbles.

They don't consider him "just another RB". I can't speak for the half of the board that didn't recognize that.

Not to diminish what Lewis has accomplished this year - which has vastly exceeded what I expected of him at the start of this season - but ...

I'm not entirely sure what the definition of "starter" might be within an RBBC and within a rigorously game-planned offense that varies week-to-week. Being the guy who's on the field for the first snap isn't really meaningful if a different RB gets significantly more snaps in the game due to the gameplan or in-game adjustments.

Even if you go by which RB gets the plurality of snaps among RBBC members in a particular game, Lewis didn't hit that mark for every game he was healthy back in 2015, and not at all in "Blount's Year" of 2016. He's hit that mark 10 times out of 17 games (so far) this season (mostly in the 2nd-half of the season), and then often not by much. Even when Burkhead was out with his rib injury, White took the plurality of snaps for three of those games.

Lewis definitely ended up being the "lead rusher" this season (and effectively tied with Burkhead for 2nd most productive pass-catching RB behind White), but who knows how those snap counts and production numbers would have worked out if Burkhead hadn't missed 7 of those 17 games?

The point being that there's no question that Lewis has been among the most productive RBs in the league this season, while being the most grossly underpaid (aside from Kamara and Hunt). Making him into something he's not ("THE starter") just skews the perception of his objective value.

 

[maineman209]

I hear you. But wasn't that a product of the injuries? Do you think he'd have received the same number of touches had Burkhead not been injured? Because it seemed to me that Burkhead was getting the kinds of touches Lewis started to receive only after Burkhead was injured.

Possibly. For the 10 games that they were both available, Burkhead averaged 10 touches/game and Lewis averaged 12.3.

Timing-wise, it doesn't correlate exactly. They traded a bit back-and-forth during the period between Burkhead's injuries. Although it's true that Lewis' touches ramped up as he got stronger during the second 4 games, he mostly displaced Gillislee after they BYE. Then, during the second half of the season, the Lewis-Burkhead combo began taking touches from White, too.

 

[maineman209]

With White already under contract I believe Burkhead and Lewis would be the 2 other key RB signings that BB would pursue. Bolden would probably sign a HT discount type unless some other team blows him away, but I don't thionk there is a ton of interest in a #5 ST RB...... Agree that using Gillislee's savings( if he is cut ) to re-sign others would be money put to good use. BB usually can find RB's off UDFA or other team's cuts to fill in as #4 RB...but what do I know about BB's thought process when building a team

Given what Bolden has consistently contributed on ST, and what he still seems capable of contributing in spot-duty as an in-house #5 RB, his $775k already is a "home-town discount".

 

[obgod3]

If Lewis wants more than 3-4 Mil I think he is gone. Dont want to see that but I dont see NE paying big bucks for a RB.

 

[BlueThunder]

Hoping Lewis likes the atmosphere in New England......already having one ring let's hope he wants another

 

[maineman209]

@PatsBoy12
We've kind veered OT, but just so everyone's on the same page WRT RB pay ...

Top 25 RUNNING BACK APY's thru contract year
(AGE = age when current contract was signed)
*(playoff team)

*(PIT) Bell = $12.1M - UFA (franchise tag) ... (AGE 25)

*(ATL) Freeman = $8.25M thru 2022 (recently extended) ... (AGE 25)
*(BUF) McCoy = $8.0M thru 2019 ... (AGE 27)

(TBY) Martin = $7.15M thru 2020 ... (AGE 27)

*(JAX) Fournette = $6.79M thru 2020 (rookie contract)
(HOU) Miller = $6.5M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
*(JAX) Ivory = $6.4M thru 2020 ... (AGE 28)
*(TEN) D. Murray = $6.38M thru 2019 ... (AGE 28)
(DAL) Elliot = $6.24M thru 2019 (rookie contract)

(CIN) Bernard = $5.17M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
*(MIN) L. Murray = $5.0M thru 2019 ... (AGE 27)

*(PHL) Sproles = $4.5M - UFA ... (AGE 33)
(OAK) Lynch = $4.5M thru 2018 ... (AGE 31)
(DEN) Anderson = $4.5M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
*(CAR) McCaffrey = $4.31M thru 2020 (rookie contract)
(SEA) Lacy = $4.25M - UFA ... (AGE 27)
(NYG) Vereen = $4.12M - UFA ... (AGE 26)
(IND) Gore = $4.0M - UFA ... (AGE 32)
(NYJ) Forte = $4.0M thru 2018 ... (AGE 31)
*(CAR) Stewart = $4.0M thru 2018 ... (AGE 30)
*(NOL) Ingram = $4.0M thru 2018 ... (AGE 26)
*(Pats) WHITE = $4.0M thru 2020 (recently extended) ... (AGE 25)

(DET) Riddick = $3.85M thru 2019 ... (AGE 25)
(NYJ) Powell = $3.75M thru 2018 ... (AGE 27)
#25 (WAS) Thompson = $3.5M thru 2019 ... (AGE 27)
----------
Other Pats' RBs and current ages ...
#28 GILLISLEE = $3.2M thru 2018 ... (AGE 27)
#29 BURKHEAD = $3.15M - UFA ... (AGE 27)
#40 LEWIS = $1.5M - UFA ... (AGE 27)
#70 BOLDEN = $775k - UFA ... (AGE 27)

One last thing WRT Lewis and a potential new contract - his 2017 production relative to APY rankings. A couple things are fairly clear ...
A) Lewis wasn't the only RB who was underpaid for his 2017 production. Ingram was a steal for NOL (this year).
B) There were several RBs who were overpaid for their production this season.
C) Fiscally, it's fairly stupid to draft an RB in the top-5, considering the production/$ of guys like Hunt and Kamara and several other RBs who were day-2/day-3 draftees in previous years.

(QUOTED my own post above for quick reference).

2017 Regular Season RUSHING LEADERS by CATEGORY (#APY Rank)
... ("---" = APY Rank below top 25)

Yds/Game
1 - Elliot = 98.3 (#9)
2 - Gurley = 87.0 (---)
3 - Bell = 86.1 (#1)
4 - *Hunt = 82.9 (---)
5 - *Fournette = 80.0 (#5)
6 - Peterson = 74.7 (---)
7 - McCoy = 71.1 (#3)
8 - Ingram = 70.3 (#21)
9 - Howard = 70.1 (---)
10 - Gordon = 69.1 (---)
...
18 - LEWIS = 56.0 (#40)

Yds/attempt
1 - *Kamara = 6.1 (---)
2 - LEWIS = 5.0 (#40)
3 - Ingram = 4.9 (#21)
--- *Hunt = 4.9 (---)
5 - Drake = 4.8 (---)
--- Morris = 4.8 (---)
7 - Gurley = 4.7 (---)
8 - Collins = 4.6 (---)
9 - Breda (---)
--- Blount (---)
--- Freeman (#2)
--- Darkwa (---)
--- Bernard (#10)

Chunk runs (20+ yds)
1 - McCoy = 12 (#3)
--- *Hunt = 12 (---)
3 - Ingram = 11 (#21)
4 - Powell = 9 (#24)
5 - Gurley = 8 (---)
6 - Blount = 7 (---)
--- LEWIS = 7 (#40)
--- L. Murray = 7 (#11)
--- Anderson = 7 (#14)
--- Drake = 7 (---)

Touchdowns
1 - Gurley = 13 (---)
2 - Ingram = 12 (#21)
3 - Bell = 9 (#1)
--- Howard = 9 (---)
--- *Fournette = 9 (#5)
6 - L. Murray = 8 (#11)
--- Hyde = 8 (---)
--- Gordon = 8 (---)
--- *Kamara = 8 (---)
--- *Hunt = 8 (---)
...
14 - LEWIS = 6 (#40)
---- Stewart = 6 (#20)
---- McCoy = 6 (#3)
---- D. Murray = 6 (#8)
---- Collins = 6 (---)

1st Downs
1 - Bell = 74 (#1)
2 - Gurley = 66 (---)
3 - Howard = 61 (---)
4 - *Hunt = 60 (---)
5 - Gordon = 58 (---)
6 - McCoy = 55 (#3)
--- Elliot = 55 (#9)
8 - Collins = 51 (---)
9 - Ingram = 50 (#21)
10 - Gore = 49 (#18)
11 - LEWIS = 48 (#40)
---- Freeman = 48 (#2)

NOTE: This is just the rushing component of production.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Thought this thread was going to be about the AFCCG practice news.

Who is this guy Burkhead??

 

[maineman209]

If Lewis wants more than 3-4 Mil I think he is gone. Dont want to see that but I dont see NE paying big bucks for a RB.

It's really difficult to say. Based on the current RB pay scale and the production rankings, I'd say that the point where ROI starts getting shaky is somewhere between $4.5M and $5.0M APY.

On the one hand, I could see the Pats offering as much as 3-years for something between $13M and $14M, maybe $5M guaranteed. But I can also see some team on the bottom of the rushing stats offering 4 years for $21M-$22M with $7M guaranteed.

Unfortunately, most of those teams have an OL that can't run-block for squat. I don't think that Lewis would perform as consistently well without a good run-blocking OL and would be more likely to get injured again.

 

[Former Fan]

It's really difficult to say. Based on the current RB pay scale and the production rankings, I'd say that the point where ROI starts getting shaky is somewhere between $4.5M and $5.0M APY.

On the one hand, I could see the Pats offering as much as 3-years for something between $13M and $14M, maybe $5M guaranteed. But I can also see some team on the bottom of the rushing stats offering 4 years for $21M-$22M with $7M guaranteed.

Unfortunately, most of those teams have an OL that can't run-block for squat. I don't think that Lewis would perform as consistently well without a good run-blocking OL and would be more likely to get injured again.

Personally, I could see them going as high as 3/$15M, with 7M guaranteed. He's not just a guy who has been productive mostly because he's been put in that position by the offense around him. He can make things happen on his own, which is rare, and I think BB is willing to pay for truly special talent. He's an injury risk, but who isn't? It's not like they'd be paying up where Bell is at.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Possibly. For the 10 games that they were both available, Burkhead averaged 10 touches/game and Lewis averaged 12.3.

Timing-wise, it doesn't correlate exactly. They traded a bit back-and-forth during the period between Burkhead's injuries. Although it's true that Lewis' touches ramped up as he got stronger during the second 4 games, he mostly displaced Gillislee after they BYE. Then, during the second half of the season, the Lewis-Burkhead combo began taking touches from White, too.

Gotcha, Maine.

 

[long distance]

let's get this practice/current roster news thread back on track..

 

[NYCPatsFan]

let's get this practice/current roster news thread back on track..

Whew! Finally!! Thanks for someone else also chiming to discuss what this thread was created for.

I have no doubt Fournette will play, but still have reservations if he will be 100%. Let's see.

More interested in knowing how Burkhead is doing...