NFL GAME DAY DISCUSSION AFCCG: Bengals at Chiefs

[jmt57]

AFCCG: 12-7 Cincinnati Bengals at 14-5 Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs are favored by 7, with an over/under of 54½.


Cincinnati Bengals 2021 Season:

Date	Opponent	Result	Location	W/L	Div
09/12	Minnesota	W 27-24	Home	1-0	0-0
09/19	Chicago	L 17-20	Away	1-1	0-0
09/26	Pittsburgh	W 24-10	Away	2-1	1-0
09/30	Jacksonville	W 24-21	Home	3-1	1-0
10/10	Green Bay	L 22-25	Home	3-2	1-0
10/17	Detroit	W 34-11	Away	4-2	1-0
10/24	Baltimore	W 41-17	Away	5-2	2-0
10/31	NY Jets	L 31-34	Away	5-3	2-0
11/07	Cleveland	L 16-41	Home	5-4	2-1
11/21	Las Vegas	W 32-13	Away	6-4	2-1
11/28	Pittsburgh	W 41-10	Home	7-4	3-1
12/05	LA Chargers	L 22-41	Home	7-5	3-1
12/12	San Francisco	L 23-26	Home	7-6	3-1
12/19	Denver	W 15-10	Away	8-6	3-1
12/26	Baltimore	W 41-21	Home	9-6	4-1
01/02	Kansas City	W 34-31	Home	10-6	4-1
01/09	Cleveland	L 16-21	Away	10-7	4-2
01/15	Las Vegas	W 26-19	Home	11-7	4-2
01/22	Tennessee	W 19-16	Away	12-7	4-2
01/30	Kansas City	3:00 pm	Away

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 Season:

Date	Opponent	Result	Location	W/L	Div
09/12	Cleveland	W 33-29	Home	1-0	0-0
09/19	Baltimore	L 35-36	Away	1-1	0-0
09/26	LA Chargers	L 24-30	Home	1-2	0-1
10/03	Philadelphia	W 42-30	Away	2-2	0-1
10/10	Buffalo	L 20-38	Home	2-3	0-1
10/17	Washington	W 31-13	Away	3-3	0-1
10/24	Tennessee	L 3-27	Away	3-4	0-1
11/01	NY Giants	W 20-17	Home	4-4	0-1
11/07	Green Bay	W 13-7	Home	5-4	0-1
11/14	Las Vegas	W 41-14	Away	6-4	1-1
11/21	Dallas	W 19-9	Home	7-4	1-1
12/05	Denver	W 22-9	Home	8-4	2-1
12/12	Las Vegas	W 48-9	Home	9-4	3-1
12/16	LA Chargers	W 34-28	Away	10-4	4-1
12/26	Pittsburgh	W 36-10	Home	11-4	4-1
01/02	Cincinnati	L 31-34	Away	11-5	4-1
01/08	Denver	W 28-24	Away	12-5	5-1
01/16	Pittsburgh	W 42-21	Home	13-5	5-1
01/23	Buffalo	W 42-36	Home	14-5	5-1
01/30	Cincinnati	3:00 pm	Home

Bengals Team Stats and Rankings:

CIN Offense	Value (rank)	CIN Defense	Value (rank)
Points/Game	26.6 (#8)	Opp Points/Game	21.6 (#13)
Yards/Game	357.8 (#14)	Opp Yards/Game	352.7 (#19)
Points/Play	0.431 (#6)	Opp Points/Play	0.343 (#11)
Yards/Play	5.8 (#8)	Opp Yards/Play	5.6 (#23)
3D Conversion %	40.17% (#15)	Opp 3D Conv %	40.89% (#21)
4D Conversion %	66.67% (#3)	Opp 4D Conv %	38.10% (#2)
RZ Scoring % (TD)	57.63% (#18)	Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)	55.74% (#14)
TDs/Game	3.0 (#9)	Opp TDs/Game	2.5 (#12)

Chiefs Team Stats and Rankings:

KC Offense	Value (rank)	KC Defense	Value (rank)
Points/Game	29.7 (#4)	Opp Points/Game	22.2 (#16)
Yards/Game	409.3 (#1)	Opp Yards/Game	365.8 (#26)
Points/Play	0.443 (#4)	Opp Points/Play	0.354 (#16)
Yards/Play	6.1 (#1)	Opp Yards/Play	5.8 (#28)
3D Conversion %	53.48% (#1)	Opp 3D Conv %	40.61% (#20)
4D Conversion %	68.75% (#2)	Opp 4D Conv %	67.57% (#31)
RZ Scoring % (TD)	62.34% (#10)	Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)	59.68% (#18)
TDs/Game	3.6 (#4)	Opp TDs/Game	2.7 (#21)

 

[denverpatsfan]

Are they expecting a back door cover by the Bengals? Or does Vegas have no respect for the Chefs D? I would have thought this line would be double digits?

 

[jmt57]

Are they expecting a back door cover by the Bengals? Or does Vegas have no respect for the Chefs D? I would have thought this line would be double digits?

Good question. From what I am reading the vast majority of money is on the Chiefs, both money line as well as against the spread.

Bengals vs Chiefs Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 06/28/2026

View the best Bengals vs Chiefs odds, betting trends, and line movements for 06/28/2026. We've got their head to head and last 10 game results.

www.vegasinsider.com

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Praying for a miracle

 

[VectorPrime]

God I would love the Chiefs to eat s.hit today so bad. But we all know they’re likely winning by 17 at least.

 

[Wax Frog]

Praying for a miracle

@PATSYLICIOUS and @ashley1992 - Believe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sicilian]

The Super Bowl instantly becomes less stressful for me to watch if the Bengals can win today. The Chiefs are the only team left that I dislike.

 

[aluminum seats]

God I would love the Chiefs to eat s.hit today so bad. But we all know they’re likely winning by 17 at least.

That’s absolutely the likely outcome. But Burrow does have a quality

 

[VectorPrime]

That’s absolutely the likely outcome. But Burrow does have a quality

I don’t doubt him. I doubt his o-line.

 

[Wax Frog]

The Super Bowl instantly becomes less stressful for me to watch if the Bengals can win today. The Chiefs are the only team left that I dislike.

It'd be nice to get to watch a SB as entertainment rather than take my usual DGAF-til-4th-quarter-check-in approach.

 

[Triumph]

Are they expecting a back door cover by the Bengals? Or does Vegas have no respect for the Chefs D? I would have thought this line would be double digits?

The Bengals barely beat KC in the Natti and KC could have won that game if they had just let Cinci score thereby leaving 1 minute on the clock and likely 2 timeouts.

The Chiefs are not losing because Mahomes is playing on another level.

 

[NFL Mystique]

I'd be stunned if the Bengals won this game.

They need at least three TD's off three TO's. Whether a pick six. 6 points off a fumble etc. Chiefs don't give the ball away much. Bengals could use a special teams TD too.

Bengals OL is in shambles. That means there will be 4 to 5 drives with a fg or less. Can't win that way against a lethal offense.

Joe Burrow can have the game of his life. Yet, that still doesn't mean they win. See: Josh Allen.

The only team left (IMO) who can beat the Chiefs are the Rams. And that is dependent upon good Stafford showing up. Not the one prone to head shaking picks.

So there is a chance for Cincy to win. But it's going to take turnovers and special teams.

 

[Triumph]

KC vs LA Super Bowl.

Jimmy will pull a choke job. He is due.

 

[NFL Mystique]

KC vs LA Super Bowl.

Jimmy will pull a choke job. He is due.

I hope he doesn't.

I'd love a SF-KC rematch.

 

[VectorPrime]

KC vs LA Super Bowl.

Jimmy will pull a choke job. He is due.

I doubt he’ll pull a choke job. I just think he’ll simply play poorly overall like last week.

 

[VectorPrime]

I hope he doesn't.

I'd love a SF-KC rematch.

Well yeah because you could start laying out the parade route.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Well yeah because you could start laying out the parade route.

Exactly.

If it's the Rams, I feel pretty good about winning.

But certainly not a given.

 

[Brandon_Cox]

Jimmy will pull a choke job. He is due.

He’s been trying but the other team keeps dropping his interceptions

 

[VectorPrime]

Exactly.

If it's the Rams, I feel pretty good about winning.

But certainly not a given.

Rams will be favored and should be favored.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Rams will be favored and should be favored.

Rams will be favored against the Chiefs?

Why?

Yes the Rams offense is capable of putting up crooked numbers. But Stafford is a huge wild card. I'm not a huge fan of Favre like QB's who can throw a 60 yard bomb at any minute. Yet, are just as likely to throw a pick six.

It would be similar to the Patriots-Falcons SB. Atlanta had better receivers as a whole. But NE had the better and more trustworthy QB. And that's how the game played out. Brady was Brady. Ryan was...a notch below.