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The good news is that this week's results did a lot to clear up the muddle of possible tiebreaker scenarios in the AFC East. The bad news is that there was no help for NE. With a one game lead, the Patriots remain in the driver's seat, but they can no longer win a tiebreaker against the Dolphins.
Last week, we established that NE cannot win division or common opponents tiebreakers against Miami. Now they would lose a conference tiebreaker as well. Miami finished 2-2 against the NFC, while NE finished 3-1. If Miami and NE tie, Miami would have to have won one more conference game than NE. (Technically, Miami could also win based on division record if NE were to lose to Buffalo this week.)
The jets were swept by Miami and have 4 AFC East losses (worst that NE could do is 3-3).
So -
1. Miami wins any tiebreaker (two or three way) with NE or the jets.
2. NE wins any tiebreaker against the jets but loses any tiebreaker against Miami.
3. jets lose any tiebreaker with Miami or NE.
The Patriots have to beat the Dolphins outright (but could tie the jets) in order to win the division. The jets would have to beat both Miami and NE outright in order to win.
Remaining schedule:
NE: at Buffalo (5-8), Jacksonville (7-6), at Houston (6-7)
Miami: at Tennessee (6-7), Houston (6-7), Pittsburgh (6-7)
jets: Atlanta (6-7), at Indianapolis (13-0), Cincinnati (9-4)
I'm not so sure I agree with the assertion that the AFC is a weak division. Through 13 games, the AFC East and NFC East are the only divisions having three teams with seven or more wins. Miami is a tough, extremely well-coached team and has now gone 7-3 after a brutal 0-3 start. Even the despicable jets have won three in a row to claw back into contention (more for the wild card than the division).
It's a dogfight. It's not going to be easy for the Patriots who will have to play better, especially with 2 of 3 games on the road.
Last week, we established that NE cannot win division or common opponents tiebreakers against Miami. Now they would lose a conference tiebreaker as well. Miami finished 2-2 against the NFC, while NE finished 3-1. If Miami and NE tie, Miami would have to have won one more conference game than NE. (Technically, Miami could also win based on division record if NE were to lose to Buffalo this week.)
The jets were swept by Miami and have 4 AFC East losses (worst that NE could do is 3-3).
So -
1. Miami wins any tiebreaker (two or three way) with NE or the jets.
2. NE wins any tiebreaker against the jets but loses any tiebreaker against Miami.
3. jets lose any tiebreaker with Miami or NE.
The Patriots have to beat the Dolphins outright (but could tie the jets) in order to win the division. The jets would have to beat both Miami and NE outright in order to win.
Remaining schedule:
NE: at Buffalo (5-8), Jacksonville (7-6), at Houston (6-7)
Miami: at Tennessee (6-7), Houston (6-7), Pittsburgh (6-7)
jets: Atlanta (6-7), at Indianapolis (13-0), Cincinnati (9-4)
I'm not so sure I agree with the assertion that the AFC is a weak division. Through 13 games, the AFC East and NFC East are the only divisions having three teams with seven or more wins. Miami is a tough, extremely well-coached team and has now gone 7-3 after a brutal 0-3 start. Even the despicable jets have won three in a row to claw back into contention (more for the wild card than the division).
It's a dogfight. It's not going to be easy for the Patriots who will have to play better, especially with 2 of 3 games on the road.