Okay. I said it wouldn't be done till tomorrow but I'm getting my long winded breakdown done now.
Yes, the typical bobdigital
TL;DR post incoming! First let's talk about both teams.
Patriots - 8-0 home team that hasn't played in December they way they usually have. It was a bit like 2015 in which they let the first seed slip through their fingers. That being said this is the healthiest Patriots team we have seen enter the playoffs since 2014. There are very few injuries that really matter. The week off came at a good time for them. Brady was nursing something and he got time off and we'll see if Gronk can come around a bit. People forget now that he looked okay in the first few weeks of the year. Not vintage Gronk but a legit #1 TE threat. In the first 6 games he averaged about 65 yards a game. That isn't amazing but it's nothing to sneeze at. Edelman finally is looking like the Edelman of pre-injury and will need to.
The RB core is healthy and ready to go which will be key. The offensive line is an unsung but solid unit which has been both good at run blocking and pass defense. On the defensive side this team has been overlooked a bit. Trey Flowers is a legit star but without a true running mate it is hard to tell at times. The CB group is the best one left in the NFL. The trio of Gilmore, Jackson and McCourty have been very solid even without a great pass rush. They often play man and stay in it.
Van Noy has really opened my eyes this year. He is clearly good starting level LB and not just a 'solid #2'. Hightower hasn't been good this year but he has been serviceable. I heard something this week and I really took it to heart. He is never out of position. While maybe he can't make those eye popping plays anymore he is doing his job and able to free other guys up without worrying about a particular 'dirty work' assignment getting done or the right zone being covered. All that being said this D has a lot of weakness at the LB spot when it come to speed and don't have many great pass rushers. The solution has been blitz and depend on the back end to cover with limited help. That will be how they will need to play from here on out mostly. Of course a lot of it comes down to how Brady plays. I think the week off will do him good and it is hard to imagine the Patriots not coming ready to play.
Chargers - Speaking of coming ready to play, the Chargers will be ready to go I have no doubt. This team hasn't lost outside of LA all year and they are the best road team in the NFL. Their offense is pretty much on par with ours or would usually. I wonder how good Gordon will be. He has been rather ineffective the last 3 games and the injury he got seems to not be going away. Getting their TE HH back will be interesting but I don't know how ready he will be to play. Gates is a wonderful option with his sure hands on 3rd down but he won't kill you with the big play.
Their offense is really built around their WRs though. That is their strength which matches with the Patriots strength. Allen, Williams and Williams are a wonderful trio. While the lack a superstar the caliber of Hill or Thomas (Allen is good but not those) they make up for it with the quality of their depth of options in the WR core. Of course even if Gordon isn't good they can always fall back on the dependable Ekeler who is just as dangerous running or catching. If Gordon isn't right they don't have a lot to quality behind him and he doesn't seem like a guy they want running 20 times. Of course their offensive line is the elephant in the room. BY FAR the worst unit left in the playoffs.
On defense they have a number of talent players. Of course it all starts up front with Ingram and Bosa. The rest of their DL is average and really carried by those 2 stars. Their back end is arguably the 2nd most talent group of DBs left (I have ours as the best). They have a great CB duo in King and Hayward. The 3rd guy isn't really that good and flip flops depend on match ups. Derwin James already looks destined for the HOF. The other safeties in the group are again only average. Usually Addae is back there as is Phillips but neither really is all that good. Overall those they have 3 legit stars in the secondary to cover for a bunch of average or below average players. They do that very well.
LB is the issue on defense. They don't have a single good starter there and RBs who catch the ball have killed them all year because of it. The chargers have done well on defense but in reality it is 5 elite players carrying a bunch of almost JAGs IMO. Not to say it can't work, but if the right situation is created you can get a great mismatch if you play them smartly.
So all that is out of the way. Now how about the actual match up?
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense - It all starts up front with our OL vs the Chargers DL. The Patriots need to contain both Bosa and Ingram without letting these other players get a free line of attack on Brady. The Patriots pass protection tends to do pretty well when it only has a few players to worry about and I think that will be the case here mostly. I do worry about Ingram on the inside between Thuney and Andrews but I doubt they screw that up much. Bosa can move around too but Ingram to me is more dangerous and disruptive against the way we are built.
This is all about pre snap making sure everyone is clear on what to do. Brady is damn good at that. I think we see a lot of screens and passes to RB. It is where the Chargers are weakest and the Pats are great at it. I expect and hope for more passes and screens to RBs than TEs and WRs combined. They simply can't cover it while having more than 1 LB on the field and even then it is an issue. I doubt we see the 7 DB look. If we do then we just run over them. The Pats will force them to keep their LBs on the field. At least a few of them. On the back end I wonder how they deal with Gronk. It could be argued it would be a waste to put James on him and I totally agree. They have been able to stop LBs all year when they need to but Gronk is going to be tricky for them. I think.
He isn't a focal point and not the threat he was but then again you can't just put some scrub on him either. If they put a LB on him he will kill their LBs. If they put a DB on him then which one? They will need King on Edelman and you don't want to 'waste' Hayward on Gronk. I think Gronk may well have a good match up this game as crazy as that sounds against the defense that has been the statistical best one when facing TEs. Outside of that I think Edelman looks ready to go head to head with King and win some matches.
Sadly that won't get it done and they will need help from another option. I would attack whoever the 3rd CB is covering and throw deep if James cheats up. Dorsett and Patterson can catch some decent 20 yard passes if they catch them sleeping. One of the more interesting facts I came across was how 'predictable' the Chargers are. The run the Seattle scheme pretty much to a T without mixing it up much (whether they have 7 DBs on the field or 4 DBs and 3 LBs it is the same scheme). Doing the same thing to Brady over and over tends to be a bad idea. Particular if he can find match ups to exploit and he will have easy ones in White and Burkhead in the flat. The run game will work but we can't force it. We need to pick our spots. They can stop the run if they want (not unlike the Pats) but usually they put more DBs than LBs on the field and run a 4-2-5 which is a good run package usually.
Overall this comes down to how the OL and Brady play. There are matchups that will be good on every play if he can find them and match ups he should stay clear of. If he has time I think he can pass well on this team and that should open up the run.
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense - This is a pretty simply and short write up. Offensive strength vs defensive strength. IF the Patriots CBs can mostly beat the Chargers WRs in man then they will win. This offense (particularly now with Gordon being gimpy) is based around the WRs. They are a very talent group and deep. So are our CBs and DBs as a whole. If that happens everything else falls apart for them. Yes they can pass to their RBs in the flat but it isn't like they have Karama back there. Yes Gates is solid but he won't beat you and Hunter won't be ready to play at a high level. Ekeler is a good back but he won't beat you either.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE WRs. That match up plays into the Patriots hands but that doesn't mean it will be easy. Allen is legit and Mike and Tyrell Williams are big, fast and dangerous weapons. JCJ has really played well this year but this may be is toughest test yet. If the CBs and DBs are able to do this then I would imagine the dogs will fully be let loose and we will see an extra pass rusher being sent to attack their bad offensive line more than not.
It is worth noting the Chargers have not done well against man and the Patriots have played it a lot and effectively. I expect the Patriots D to mix it up a lot more than the Chargers do and try to keep Rivers off balance. Dare them to run the ball 30 times with a smaller RB and gimpy Gordon and see how they do. I imagine very few heavy fronts this game. (FYI though the Chargers have big WRs the Patriots CBs aren't tiny. JCJ is 6'1 and Gilmore is 6'1. McCourty is the shortest at 5'11 but that isn't too bad. At least this isn't something like a 5'9 Arrington on a 6'6 WR. I like their ability to play with these big bodies.) As far as the DL vs the OL I expect a lot of exotic looks and hopefully Flowers has a big game, but that matters less than the CB vs WR battle. Honestly, that is the game IMO.
So what do I think overall? This will be a tough game of strength against strength and weakness against weakness a fair amount. The 2 most balanced teams in the AFC going head to head.
Yes you heard me. The Patriots and Chargers are both more balanced than the Colts. Someone had to finally say it!
If things have played out differently I would have picked this for the AFCCG. All due respect to the Colts and KC. Sadly we got this match a week early. That isn't to say whoever wins this will for sure rep the AFC. But I think they will be the favorite going in. I expect both teams to be ready to play and I don't think the history of The Chargers means much. This is a new Chargers team. This coach seems to get it which is interesting. I think both teams come out ready to play and play well. Bosa and Ingram will not be contained all game and Edelman/our WRs will have a hard time. However we will pass well the RBs and get enough from our RB and end arounds to keep drives going and score. The Chargers will win their fair share of match ups on offense and the CBs will be constantly challenged and lose some.
The Patriots don't have an answer for when they pass to their RB really so they will need to deal with it and move on to the next play. The Patriots DL will frustrate Patriot fans as much as Rivers. They will fail to win matchups as much as they should be also win enough with just 4 men to keep the Chargers from having an easy time. All that being said I think the CBs do their job enough and slow down the WRs of the Chargers. I think the weakness the Patriots can exploit on offense are less forgiving than what the Chargers can exploit and I see a cold game here in January being something this team that travels amazingly well isn't as prepared for. While I'm not a big fan of talking about the history of teams the history of QBs is noteworthy. The Chargers have won a lot on the road in the playoffs but Rivers hasn't done well in the cold and Brady has. That is something I think stays consistent even as Brady has started to show a small decline IMO.
Final prediction: Patriots 27 Chargers 23.
