A Nickel Package Without Wilhite?

[MustaphaM0nd]

idk what you folks have seen of Shipley, but so far with the Bengals he looks REAL good. Runs routes like a veteran WR.

I'd be more worried about Shipley than T.O or 85. This has the makings of a short passing game.

 

[Synovia]

I'm not even worried.
Wilhite can cover Shipley, easily. Wilhite is underated in this forum, he isn't that bad, he just isn't a nfl starter caliber cb.

People also seem to forget that Wilhite was a second year player, playing hurt, behind absolutely no pass rush, who never seemed to get burned, but just had ball awareness issues.

 

[BradyManny]

Those are very interesting and telling stats. I was not aware that stats were broken down as much as that regarding individual DB's. Thanks.

I think DB is one of the few position where those metrics really match the film. Sites like footballoutsiders and profootballfocus are full of crap 75% of the time, but DB metrics are sound: when the ball was thrown in their direction, this is what happened. When what we see transpire in the game matches the metrics as it does here, it shows there is some truth behind it.

 

[Synovia]

Exactly. That has been the history, in recent years, of the Pats corners. Fairly decent step to step coverage but always getting outjumped or outwrestled for the ball.

Which is because QBs always seem to have time to make perfect throws.

Thats the type of coverage that turns into picks when QBs are hurried.

 

[BradyManny]

Which is because QBs always seem to have time to make perfect throws.

Thats the type of coverage that turns into picks when QBs are hurried.

Its a fair point. But what about the DBs that have had success in these years of a lesser pass rush, namely, Bodden?

 

[Brady2Welker]

I think Page can take care of Gresham....BUT I am concerned about only 3 CBs...Arrington the 4th...REALLY not very good...Arrington COULD be..but not now..I am wondering if Miller or Carter might be a choice.up from the PSquad..At least another giving some depth....If I were the Cinci OC, I'd go 4 wide and send Gresham out as well...find a match up a.exploit that..

Ah, the Madden strat. Keep back peddling to avoid the rush because god knows any pass rushers in that game have the capability to get off a block.

Not calling you out specifically, but the Madden generation tells us that going 4-5WR is generally the best idea. In real life, even the saints usually keep a guy or two back for blocking depending on the scheme they're against.

That said I think we'll see a lot of Gronk+Moss+Welker+Tate/Hernandez+<insert RB> this weekend. Similarly I expect the Bengals to line up in a lot of TO,Ocho,Gresham,Benson and maybe another TE set this weekend.

 

[Sicilian]

Ah, the Madden strat. Keep back peddling to avoid the rush because god knows any pass rushers in that game have the capability to get off a block.

Not calling you out specifically, but the Madden generation tells us that going 4-5WR is generally the best idea. In real life, even the saints usually keep a guy or two back for blocking depending on the scheme they're against.

That said I think we'll see a lot of Gronk+Moss+Welker+Tate/Hernandez+<insert RB> this weekend. Similarly I expect the Bengals to line up in a lot of TO,Ocho,Gresham,Benson and maybe another TE set this weekend.

I don't know how much of it is a Madden mentality, I think it's just more that people see certain QB's use the spread and empty backfield with success and assume it's the formation and not the QB that is making it work.

Palmer isn't a bad QB, but he's not Brady. His decision making is not as good, and I don't believe the OL in front of him is as good. If you're going empty backfield, you're banking on a mis-match leaving someone open QUICKLY, otherwise you have very little protection. Remember, even with 5 wide, the defense can cover them in a nickel formation and rush 6 guys at your 5 OL if they choose.

 

[Synovia]

Its a fair point. But what about the DBs that have had success in these years of a lesser pass rush, namely, Bodden?

I'm not saying Wilhite was anywhere near as good as Bodden, hes not. He's the weaker of the two. That doesn't mean hes bad. The weaker link is the one whose going to get picked on.

Look at Denver for instance... they keep trying to find a CB2 to go across from Bailey, and everyone they've had has looked terrible. If Bodden and Wilhite both are off their guy, Wilhite is going to be the one thrown at, because QBs are going to look to that side first, because hes the weaker CB.


DB play and pass rush are inextricably related.


The point is, he hasn't been very good, but hes shown the ability to stay close to pretty much every reciever he has faced, and thats not something many guys can do. With a better pass rush, I think he'd look MUCH better.

 

[BradyManny]

I'm not saying Wilhite was anywhere near as good as Bodden, hes not. He's the weaker of the two. That doesn't mean hes bad. The weaker link is the one whose going to get picked on.

Look at Denver for instance... they keep trying to find a CB2 to go across from Bailey, and everyone they've had has looked terrible. If Bodden and Wilhite both are off their guy, Wilhite is going to be the one thrown at, because QBs are going to look to that side first, because hes the weaker CB.


DB play and pass rush are inextricably related.


The point is, he hasn't been very good, but hes shown the ability to stay close to pretty much every reciever he has faced, and thats not something many guys can do. With a better pass rush, I think he'd look MUCH better.

Agreed, all valid points.

 

[Pats726]

Ah, the Madden strat. Keep back peddling to avoid the rush because god knows any pass rushers in that game have the capability to get off a block.

Not calling you out specifically, but the Madden generation tells us that going 4-5WR is generally the best idea. In real life, even the saints usually keep a guy or two back for blocking depending on the scheme they're against.

That said I think we'll see a lot of Gronk+Moss+Welker+Tate/Hernandez+<insert RB> this weekend. Similarly I expect the Bengals to line up in a lot of TO,Ocho,Gresham,Benson and maybe another TE set this weekend.

DEAD wrong with that HARDLY even close to that generation..(I saw th Pats play at BU..you figure the math..)..not by a long shot. AND wrong about your point...if a D is weak in depth at CB...you GO after that match up...no?? We'll see how Cinci attacks...maybe 3 wide TE and a RB...but still..a GOOD matchup with 3rd WR Shipley and Wilhite.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

People also seem to forget that Wilhite was a second year player, playing hurt, behind absolutely no pass rush, who never seemed to get burned, but just had ball awareness issues.

I'd agree....

I thought Wilhite was improving week-to-week..before he got hurt...

for a guy who was getting thrown at regularly, he was making adjustments...I hope this is the year that he takes it up a notch.

 

[unoriginal]

I'd like to point out that it is not unusual for young corners, especially young corners drafted in the lower rounds, to have what looks like good coverage, only to allow the completion time after time... I'm guessing in Wilhite's case it was at a 70% clip. Being able to close down the throwing lane and make a pick is an instinctive skill most corners take a few years to learn. Asante Samuel's career trajectory is a good example. This board was convinced he would never be anything better than a nickel corner until his fourth year, when he started walking in front of outs and housing picks. His fourth year was also his biggest year from a tackling perspective. After that, his tackles decreased by 50% primarily because QBs stopped throwing at him for fear of interceptions, and began picking on other areas of the secondary.

So there is hope for Wilhite and that is why he is still on the team.

 

[bucky]

I think DB is one of the few position where those metrics really match the film. Sites like footballoutsiders and profootballfocus are full of crap 75% of the time, but DB metrics are sound: when the ball was thrown in their direction, this is what happened. When what we see transpire in the game matches the metrics as it does here, it shows there is some truth behind it.

I very much agree with that bolded statement. Even for DBs, they often have to make a judgement call on which DB blew a coverage. Given that they don't know the defensive call, their accuracy suffers quite a bit. I do like those sites for the player participation stats they provide. There's very little judgement in that.

As for Wilhite, he's clearly struggled. If Wheatley can ever stay healthy, I would foresee a nickel D without Wilhite, but I think the chances of Wilhite improving are actually higher than Wheatley's chances of staying healthy.

 

[Synovia]

As for Wilhite, he's clearly struggled. If Wheatley can ever stay healthy, I would foresee a nickel D without Wilhite, but I think the chances of Wilhite improving are actually higher than Wheatley's chances of staying healthy.

Of course Wilhite has struggled. He's now a 3rd year low round pick. Low round picks aren't supposed to start pretty much immediately.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Yup.

And for comparison sake, that link shows Revis had a startling 29 rating. Yikes. And again, that passes the eye test.

I think that Revis will be hard-pressed to replicate that performance. You can bet that OC's spent a lot of time watching film of him this year. He is also entering the season cold this time (no TC, no PS games, no film study).

 

[Ring 6]

Please tell me Wilhite won't be covering Jordan Shipley. As a Texas-ex who's watched a ton of Longhorn football, there's no way Wilhite can effectively cover Shipley. Please tell me we have another nickel back besides Wilhite. Maybe Page can knock the crap out of Shipley off the LOS?

Someone? Anyone?

QB12

Wilhite played a lot nad started a lot on a decent pass defense team last year and now we question him covering a rookie as a nickel back?

 

[Ring 6]

Opposing QBs had a QB rating of 115 against Wilhite last year. For comparison, against Bodden, it was in the 59 range; it was 67 for Butler.

2009 Patriots Pass Coverage Analysis - Pats Pulpit

So he doesn't just look like he's getting burnt with regularity, he really is. Statistically speaking, with an opposing QB rating of 115, Wilhite makes the average QB we face look like Brady in 2007.

Where do these stats come from?
I think it would be very difficult to determine which player is covering on which pass consistently. Do we have a source for where these are from?

 

[Ring 6]

Where do these stats come from?
I think it would be very difficult to determine which player is covering on which pass consistently. Do we have a source for where these are from?

I found it. It is the infamous pro football focus, so we can dismiss all of those numbers/

 

[Patspsycho]

I'd like to point out that it is not unusual for young corners, especially young corners drafted in the lower rounds, to have what looks like good coverage, only to allow the completion time after time... I'm guessing in Wilhite's case it was at a 70% clip. Being able to close down the throwing lane and make a pick is an instinctive skill most corners take a few years to learn. Asante Samuel's career trajectory is a good example. This board was convinced he would never be anything better than a nickel corner until his fourth year, when he started walking in front of outs and housing picks. His fourth year was also his biggest year from a tackling perspective. After that, his tackles decreased by 50% primarily because QBs stopped throwing at him for fear of interceptions, and began picking on other areas of the secondary.

So there is hope for Wilhite and that is why he is still on the team.

Earlier I talked about how fortunate it is that BB has 35 years of experience so he has seen many growth trajectories; enough to know that you cannot coach without patience. Players need time to blossom. If this board were put in charge of a team, we'd have all rookies and 2nd year players for the most part.

 

[Run DMC]

Where is T Buck when you need him?