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Idle thoughts - The "injury" edition


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I almost did not post this week. I mean, the game didn't have much in the way of insights to talk about. Indeed, while it was a very workman-like effort on both sides of the ball, it was the injuries that were the only things distinguished this game from the rest, and that is NOT a good thing.

Nate Ebner, Trevor Reilly, Marquise Flowers, Trey Flower, LWaddle , and KVN to name just the ones I know about. They were all added to the long list of starters and contributors that were already out this week, and quite frankly, I'm beginning to worry that at SOME point there will be a tipping point where not even the brilliance of the Pats coaching staff will be able to stem the tide. (BTW- anyone who has any injury updates please let us know)

But then, while I kept flipping to some other games, a few thoughts emerged, so I guess, I'll just begin the process and see where it goes. We are definitely ad libbing this one, so I'm making no promises on the quality of this effort.

1. Offense.

a. General observations - They are as good as they have to be. The key development this week was the 200 yds gained on the ground, most of which came right up the middle into the strength of the Miami DL. - I really hope the "replay thread" and/or Bedard will break down some of the blocking schemes that led to those 200 yds. For the most part Josh dictated the tempo and had his team exploiting a myriad of mismatches throughout this game. And 5 for 5 in the red zone is the kind of execution we'd been looking for all season.

BTW- I remember a time when the Pats were an excellent screen team. Those were the days. Can anyone remember a screen pass that went more than 5 yds in recent memory? I can't. Sometimes I wonder if they are just too elaborate.

b. QB - Brady only threw for 227 yds, yet it seemed like more. He "only" completed 69% of his passes, though it seemed like it was better. Once again he demonstrated great mobility within the pocket (it is really fun to watch), and his signature overall toughness in the face of all together too many hits was lauditory I didn't find the Suh hit to be egregious, just powerful. I thought Alonzo's hit wasn't late, but clearly he didn't need to throw the flipper (though that is what I would have done back in the day. ;) )

I'm sure there will be a healthy discussion on whether Brady should have been pulled earlier, but I hope it won't be done here. Also, I was a bit worried about Brady's Achilles issue prior to the is game. It is such a "sore" subject, and can be so debilitating. I was pleased to see that any concern I had was unfounded.

In his presser Brady explained he basically made a dumb throw into coverage on the pick. He evidently tried to force the ball into a window that was closed shut. It happens I guess, to the best of them, and Brady IS still the best of them. ;)

c. OL - Just when I was thinking that Ted Karras was going to Wally Pipp David Andrews, he made a few blunders to bring us all down to earth. His errant snap, while right on target, was clearly ill timed, and shouldn't happen, especially in a home game. I wonder what his explanation was to Dante on the sideline. Whatever he said, Dante was buying any of it. ;). I also saw a play or two where Suh or the other DT jacked Karras back a few yds into the backfield on runs. I would expect that from Andrews from time to time, but I had hoped the stronger and bigger Karras would fare better. On the other hand, there were several times Karras got to the 2nd level and was very effective opening up run lanes for Lewis and Burkhead.

I think it was Mason who was beat that one time and allowed Suh's hit on Brady. Waddle got backed into Brady by Wake at least once that I saw, and of course when he went out there was Flemming's sack. On the other hand, early season whipping boys Solder and Thuney both were pretty clean, at least from what I saw. And while there certainly too many hits on Brady, the overall protection was pretty good, maybe a B, B-.

Finally, anytime you have to start a backup C, who is playing his 2nd game at the position.....EVER, and you are down to your #3 RT and you run for 200 yds and give up only one sack, it is a pretty remarkable result. Don't you think? It's all about having perspective

d. RB's - NOW I am seeing the Dion Lewis from early 2015. It wasn't until this game, that I saw some of the same explosiveness and quickness we marveled at back then. Earlier in the season, it was good, but not THIS good. If we can keep him healthy, he is going to be a big problem for the rest of the league trying to stop this offense.

Have you ever seen a RB go from the "go to guy" to virtually invisible as fast as James White has in the offense in recent weeks, especially in the passing game. He had only 3 touches for 15 yds. Nothing against White, but it really points out the vagueries of the Pats offense and remind us again that we can never tell who is going to be "the guy" from week to week. It must be hell to pick Pats skill players in fantasy football, with the exception perhaps of Brady. ;)

Which leads me to Mike Gillislee...our latest whipping boy. Mike was a healthy scratch for the 3rd week in a row. But I would venture it was less about how well he was playing and more about how well the OTHER 3 guys are playing. There is just no room on the game day roster for 4 RB's, especially one who has limited ST's value. When an injury finally does happen to the RB group, I'm comfortable Gillislee will provide the quality depth we are seeing on the OL.

e. Receivers - Once again Brady hit 8 different receivers within the first half, with Gronk and Cooks providing most of the impact and yardage.

Do you ever get the feeling that the Pats could make Gronk a featured receiver like this EVERY game, but just choose not to. The same goes for Cooks. Imagine the DC who is facing the Pats and trying to figure out who you have to cover, KNOWING that, while you HAVE to pay special attention to Cooks and Gronk, you also know that both could be merely decoys for that game. :eek:

Well today was the Gronk and Cooks show and now everyone knows it exists. I will be very surprised if next week they will both be so prominent.

2 Defense -

a General thoughts - Well last week I was wondering about the state of a Pats defense that had to give extensive snaps to the likes of Trevor Reilly, and Marquise Flowers. Now we might have to figure out what we are going to do to replace them. PLUS Kyle Van Noy. :eek: File that one under, "be careful what you wish for".

The key defensive stat (beyond the 10 points they gave up) was the 2 for 11 (18%) 3rd down conversion rate. Anything under 40% is excellent. As the secondary continues to solidify, assuming the Pats will have enough bodies to put on the field, Patricia will continue to produce a solid, if totally unspectacular, front seven.

b. Front Seven - Did Alan Branch get on the field today? If he did, it wasn't for many snaps. Is he back in BB's doghouse. Despite the lack of any impact from Branch, Miami got only about 70 yds rushing and the Pats did a nice job on several short yardage situations.

AND there were SEVEN sacks. I repeat 7 sacks. That's almost a third of the 24 of their season total. :eek: It was pretty fun to watch, including 2 each by Trey Flowers and Elandon Roberts. Eric Lee joined the team AND the sack stat list with a great execution of an inside twist. Both of Roberts' sacks were the result of some excellent scheming by Matty P.

c. Secondary - When I saw that Jonathan Jones led the team in tackles, I reminded of a game I was played one time against former Giant TE, Bob Tucker. It was a game I led the Atlantic Coast league back in 1969 in tackles with 18 IIRC. The problem was, that for most of that game, I had to cover Tucker one on one. So whenever they wanted to get a first down, they simply sent Tucker out and threw him the ball. He was 6'4. I was 6'. I'd jump. He'd jump. He'd catch the ball, and I'd tackle him. So about 10 of those tackles were due to my ineptness in covering him. I was always so close too.

In my dotage, I'd like to think my effort propelled Tucker into a 12 year NFL career with both the Giants and Vikings, while I was propelled into a long teaching and coaching career. :D But to get back to the point, Jones had a lot of tackles, while his man, Landry, had a lot of catches.

I kept waiting for Matty to make a switch, or try to double Landry with a LB, but it never happened. BTW- I really think Landry is a ****, but he's the kind of **** I wouldn't mind having on MY team. The guy always plays hard, regardless of score or how the rest of his team is playing

Gilmore continues to show why got the big money. Parker had one catch for 5 yds. BTW- I would contend that Gilmore should have gotten that pick at the end of the game. If he'd gotten credit for it, he would have had more catches than the guy he was covering. ;) Harmon totally pirated that one.

Butler did a good job on Stills. Only the 37 yd PI marred his game. And the TE (Chung) did very little in the game until garbage time.

You know when I look at this defense, It kind of reminds me of the 2011 D. Back then the front 7 was pretty solid, while the secondary was recruiting Edleman to play the nickel, and Earthwind Morland was a star. :eek: This year, its the secondary that is the strength of the D, while the front 7 seems to be getting it down with blue smoke and mirrors.

3. Special Teams.

a. I don't think it was a coincidence that while special teams players were dropping like flies, starting with Ebner, that Miami managed to get past the 25 two or three times. IIRC there was only one short kick that was stopped inside the 20.

b. That being said, it was a gutsy call and a great play designed by Joe Judge, and executed by the punt team that got the Pats started on this rout. However given the cost, I would have rather the Pats had just punted the damned ball, and we'd have a healthy Ebner.

4. General thoughts.

a. Can't love the 7 penalties for 70 yds. It's a regression from recent weeks, though half the yardage was on the PI. The one that pissed me off was Gronk's motion penalty that helped kill a drive. That CAN'T happen when you are at home.

b. I'm OK with the almost late hits on Brady, but the missed call on the face mask of Lewis was inexcusable and marred what I thought was a decent job by that officiating crew.

c. I hope the Bills beating KC in KC will give BB plenty of motivation for next week's game. The Bills are always a tough out in Buffalo, and I'd hate to think this will become a trap game. If that isn't enough to prove that ANY NFL team can beat another on any given Sunday, the fact that the Steelers needed another last second FG to beat the hapless Packer AT HOME! From the highlights Antonio Brown really saved their asses with a great game.

Other surprises were AZ beating Jax. The Jets and Colts staying close to the Panthers and the Titans. Remember in any close game your team is subject to "sh!t happening". Bad calls, lucky bounces, and other assorted blunders, can lose a game you probably SHOULD win.

d. Speaking of the Steelers. While the Steelers could very well win a few weeks down the road, the Pats will ALWAYS have an edge on the sidelines. If you need another example. While the toothless Packers where an inch away from a 2 TD upset, Mike Tomlin, before the game, was already talking about the Pats game. :rolleyes:

e. The more I think on it the more I believe that THIS is going to be Josh McDaniels last season. I think the Giants are going to clean house after the season and they will push hard for Josh. In fact I think the offer will include bringing Nick Casserio in to be GM. BB still loves the Giants franchise, and would have to recommend he take it. I worry about it because, while it would hurt to lose Josh, losing Casserio too would be a very big blow for us.

f. BTW - BB waxed poetic about Greg Schianno getting the job at Tennessee. He mentioned several time how much Schianno has taught HIM over the years. Plus how much his former players loved playing for him and remain close even now. Well it turns out the Vols, pulled their offer, (a whole nuther issue) and I can't help wonder if he might now wind up here IF/when Josh leaves.

OK, that's it to start with. More than I expected to come out, but less than usual. Certainly a lot better than the 3am sessions when its a late game. ;). Feel free again to add your comments and insights and begin the discussion of what we saw today and what kind of a team we will have next week.

Ebner, I fear is done. I hope the rest of group were just dinged. I don't expect Cannon back until Miami, the same for Hogan and Andrews. All three need to get at least one week of partial practice time before getting back in the flow. Rowe, who was limited this week is a possibility. Be prepared my friends. The injury report next Wednesday is going to be ENORMOUS. Pleasant dreams. ;)
 
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Can anyone remember a screen pass that went more than 5 yds in recent memory? I can't. Sometimes I wonder if they are just too elaborate

While not a screen pass, the recognition of their own recent poor execution of them was brilliantly exploited on the Gronk "fake n go" seam route yesterday. They ran a bubble screen look but threw the seam pass out of it. That was clever offensive design and exploitation of their own tendencies and "tells".
 
But to get back to the point, Jones had a lot of tackles, while his man, Landry, had a lot of catches.

Ken, how many of those catches hurt though? 1/3rd? Maybe? He caught a few shallow crossers that went for 2-5 yds and was immediately tackled. He had a couple longer gainers, but he wasn't even close to running wild or even dictating a full-time double team.

The coaches footage will hopefully show many of the sacks as coverage aided where the Pats kept switching up coverages OR guys like Jones won their matchups leading to the loss of down and distance via sack
 
Im waking up to go to class and here's Ken pulling an all nighter. What an inspiration :p

Another great analysis, thank you
 
You know when I look at this defense, It kind of reminds me of the 2011 D. Back then the front 7 was pretty solid, while the secondary was recruiting Edleman to play the nickel, and Earthwind Morland was a star. :eek: This year, its the secondary that is the strength of the D, while the front 7 seems to be getting it down with blue smoke and mirrors.

I dont see that comparison at all. The DBs group is full of pro bowl/even AP-level players. While the 2011 front 7 was solid it was never that stacked. Rowe doesnt even play right now but we can rely on Jones and Bademosi to jump in if someone misses a series or two.

I'm sure there will be a healthy discussion on whether Brady should have been pulled earlier, but I hope it won't be done here. Also, I was a bit worried about Brady's Achilles issue prior to the is game. It is such a "sore" subject, and can be so debilitating. I was pleased to see that any concern I had was unfounded.

I dont think there needs to be a discussion about that. But then again even after almost 2 decades of coaching excellence some people really want to nitpick and show that they are more clever than BB so most probably some dink or pimp will start a thread about it.

Which leads me to Mike Gillislee...our latest whipping boy. Mike was a healthy scratch for the 3rd week in a row. But I would venture it was less about how well he was playing and more about how well the OTHER 3 guys are playing. There is just no room on the game day roster for 4 RB's, especially one who has limited ST's value. When an injury finally does happen to the RB group, I'm comfortable Gillislee will provide the quality depth we are seeing on the OL.

I think Chatham might have one of the most reasonable approaches to the Gillislee situation. Him being inactive is less of an indictment on his performance and more about the other backs playing at a high level and being just more versatile. Even if Blount was on this team instead of him there is a good chance that Blount would be inactive because he would be stuck behind the same 3 players and also have 0 ST value.

We have been extraordinarily lucky with our three backs avoiding injuries but it is comforting to know that there is still another layer of security in case something happens and we dont have to find the Steve Jacksons of 2017 as emergency.

I remember a time when the Pats were an excellent screen team. Those were the days. Can anyone remember a screen pass that went more than 5 yds in recent memory? I can't. Sometimes I wonder if they are just too elaborate.

Yeah I have been saying this for a few weeks now. I dont understand why the timing/blocking is so off on screens this year but it is something to keep an eye on. They are obviously still interested in making it work so they keep trying when in many other cases according to Chatham if something consistently doesnt in the first few weeks of the year you often remove it from the playbook or in his own words:
Things you repeatedly screwup in your first 4-5 weeks become for the coaches part of your team identity. Coaches at some point say "We would be a better team if you could do this but you havent shown you can so we wont call it"

So them still hanging with it means to me that they still think they can make it work and open up a completely new dimension to this offense. Cooks and Dorsett both would be absolute killers on well designed WR screens as would most of our RBs. Fingers crossed..

Do you ever get the feeling that the Pats could make Gronk a featured receiver like this EVERY game, but just choose not to. The same goes for Cooks. Imagine the DC who is facing the Pats and trying to figure out who you have to cover, KNOWING that, while you HAVE to pay special attention to Cooks and Gronk, you also know that both could be merely decoys for that game. :eek:

Well today was the Gronk and Cooks show and now everyone knows it exists. I will be very surprised if next week they will both be so prominent.

I totally agree. It is a total horror show for the opponents DCs to see the Pats putting up big numbers with Gronk only being a 3-4 target player for a stretch of 2-3 games. You can not deallocate your resources from him because then Brady will just exploit it and yet the Pats have shown that they can be explosive and score a lot even without featuring him.

I would also like to mention Dorsett here. He is mostly used as a decoy so far this season but now and then he flashes and shows that he can also run the same routes as Cooks or Hogan can. And this is another head scratcher for DCs because you have to take him serious and not just put the decoy stamp over it. He is in a similar situation as Dwayne Allen where he only needs to show that he can be a receiving threat once in a while and run his routes correctly so no other team can cheat when it comes to covering him.

That being said, it was a gutsy call and a great play designed by Joe Judge, and executed by the punt team that got the Pats started on this rout. However given the cost, I would have rather the Pats had just punted the damned ball, and we'd have a healthy Ebner.

I assume you and most people know it but I just want to mention it here because it is one of my pet peeves. The fake punt was not a Joe Judge call but something they installed during the week because they obviously observed something when they looked at the Miami tape. It was Ebner who saw whatever the key was and he made the call to use what they practiced all week.

That being said I agree that losing Ebner is a huge deal that will get lost in all the other injury drama because he is only a ST player. Coming into the game yesterday we had the best ST unit in the league. I am not so sure where we land now.. I certainly hope the dropoff wont be as big especially because we seem to have enough core ST depth once Slater returns.. but yesterday DMac had to come in situationally which was not necessarily my favorite outcome..

The more I think on it the more I believe that THIS is going to be Josh McDaniels last season. I think the Giants are going to clean house after the season and they will push hard for Josh. In fact I think the offer will include bringing Nick Casserio in to be GM. BB still loves the Giants franchise, and would have to recommend he take it. I worry about it because, while it would hurt to lose Josh, losing Casserio too would be a very big blow for us.

I dont see why Caserio would leave as he is the defacto GM here as well. If this is only about title and/or salary I am sure that Kraft and BB can find a way to make it work. McDaniels on the other hand will be a hot commodity this offseason. It is a perfect storm of interesting jobs potentially opening up (Titans, Bucs, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Lions...) and younger offense-based coaches being so successful the last two years (McVay, Shanahan).

I would love for Josh to just ride it out here because on some level apart from ego there is no reason why you would leave the OC position on the Pats as long as Brady is playing. Similar to Caserio I am sure that if it would come down to money that Kraft would be able to make it worth for Josh to stay.
 
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Yes there will be a huge injury report on Wednesday. What should be close to that is the list of fines going on miami
 
There seems to have been an upsurge in out of control NFL thuggery this weekend... see Miami, Denver and Oakland... be interesting to see the fallout from the NFL on this, will they accept this level of deviance or come down hard on some of this stuff. Talib told Crabtree not to wear that gold necklace.. he did warn him, after all:confused::confused: Bobby McCain going after Amendola with a forearm smash.. come on now, where is your self control???

I agree the D has a lot of smoke and mirrors, but effective "smoke and mirrors", the D Backfield has gotten much better, the D line is very much makeshift.. but getting the job done, excellent coaching is the variable and preparation is they key.

They held Miami to 17 points, Matt Moore is not the answer and Cutler was not either. Tannehill is probably not their savior either..

If you have Suh and Alonzo as defensive leaders crap will happen.. as much raw talent that they have, their brand of NFL football sucks.. what do they expect???..

Armando Salguero wrote a piece in the Miami Herald this AM and he declares the whole Miami situation needs to be rethought.. good short read.

Miami Dolphins need to rethink roster, philosophy, coaching staff
 
Nice job PFK....as usual

My completely unconnected thoughts:

BB pulling off the fake punt on the first series completely demoralized Miami ...until Miami was handed a botched snap gift
NE needs to plant more Flowers
Did NE have to call WebMD to get more doctors on their sidelines?
Was yesterday's casualty list NE's worst day ever?
I'm baffled why Josh preferred only 5 Brady guardians on most pass plays.
Was that a screen pass pass to speedster Allan?
Props to the interior OL for gutting the Miami interior DL.
Big Boy Karras definitely looks stouter than Andrews in the middle of the line but I am the wrong person to ask if his play is better.
The lack of James White is typical unsentimental BB.
NE defenders were punching balls all afternoon. Love the ball-hawking attitude.
Which Bills team will show up next weekend?

Elsewhere...

Lack of discipline is becoming a theme in the NFL this year and Sunday was another league-wide display of dimwittedness. Is their a correlation between revitalized TD celebrations and epidemic jackassary? Maybe Bob McNair's 'inmates' comment had another application. For Miami, Suh-like tactics have infected their defense.
The AFC East is boring the sh*t out of me and the divisional setup too often means double the crap games. Seventeen years and 34 games vs each of the listless AFC East dregs has certainly benefitted NE ....but the sameness does not excite. Two down, four to go. Yippeeeee
If I lived in LA, I'd be sprinting to the stadium every Sunday to watch the Rams' exciting style of football, especially knowing I could pay nose bleed prices and move up to the best seats anytime I wished. If this team doesn't excite LA, what will?
I can't imagine working a job knowing there's a 50-50 chance my knee will get shredded and/or my brain will get scrambled
 
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FWIW - DL snap %s from yesterday ...

DT:

A. Butler 54% (about what he had v. OAK)
Brown 43%
Branch 34% (about what he had v. OAK)
RJF 7% (down from 34% last week)


DE
:

T. Flowers 57% (down significantly from his season average from missing most of the final 20-25 defensive snaps after his injury
Wise 52% (down a bit from his recent average)
Lee 41% (4 tackles and a Sack)
Guy 33% (some of these at DT, of course, but his total snaps were down significantly from his season average)

It's difficult to accurately judge the effectiveness of the Pats run-D in this game, since the 'Fins were limited to just Drake after the injury to Williams (8 for 38, 4.8 ypa before his injury). This probably also allowed MP to turn the pass rush loose.
 
Mike Reiss on Twitter

Eight QB hits by Dolphins on Tom Brady tie a season-high. Others: Texans (8), Panthers (7), Chiefs (6), Buccaneers (6), Saints (5), Chargers (5) and Broncos (5).
 
A couple of observations from the game:

Oy the injuries! It seemed like every other play there was a "timeout on the field for an injured player." Both teams had people dropping like flies. I hope ours aren't too serious, but a few of them didn't looks so good. Oh no on Ebner in the post above.

Adam Gase is a clown. Aside from his dumb bright yellow-orange hat, he throws tantrum after tantrum on the side line, screaming at the refs and sometimes at his own players. Take a lesson from the other side of the field, dude.
 
Pats Pulpit on Twitter

Injury update: #Patriots special teams ace Nate Ebner will reportedly miss the rest of the season due to the knee injury he suffered yesterday.

The Pats will need to replace over 21 ST snaps per game with Ebner gone. I'm doubtful that Slater would be able to handle the full load. Seems likely that Grissom may be promoted to take the roster spot and a good portion of those ST snaps.
 
I'd like to preface my comments by saying that, generally speaking, I am quite the homer. :)

I thought Brady looked off yesterday - holding onto the ball waaaayy too long while the pocket was collapsing - led to him taking quite a few shots just as the ball was released. I thought the short handed O-line did okay.

Couple of wobblers out of the hand, and the Cooks big gainer across the middle was higher than it needed to be - I am of course referencing all of this against the TFB standards and not your average NFL QB.

I thought some of the coaching was kind of odd also - the fake punt (great, because it worked) was not a particularly good call - especially given the state of the game at that time. I also thought not taking the very makeable FG to get us to 31 and a 2 TD lead was an odd decision.

It felt at times that the Patriots were goading the Dolphins and that they were trying to teach them some type of lesson.

I, too, got exhausted watching every break in play lead to a Patriot or Dolphin limp to the sideline - fingers crossed on that front.

I thought the D did a fantastic job, short handed up front and in the LBers they were competitive in coverage all game and good enough against the run (although I was watching for runs against our nickel D - Reiss' observation - and noticed at least 1 pretty big gainer.

Its another important win - as mentioned the Steelers are getting themselves in a lather about a week 15 game - all the better for us.

I noticed that the Steelers are as reliant upon Brown and Bell as ever - their D looked poor, especially in the DB's.
 
.
e. The more I think on it the more I believe that THIS is going to be Josh McDaniels last season. I think the Giants are going to clean house after the season and they will push hard for Josh. In fact I think the offer will include bringing Nick Casserio in to be GM. BB still loves the Giants franchise, and would have to recommend he take it. I worry about it because, while it would hurt to lose Josh, losing Casserio too would be a very big blow for us.

I completely agree with this & the timing couldn’t be worse, because the Pats are going to need to identify, secure and train Brady’s successor, likely this offseason. Losing McDaniels would make this a much more difficult task.

Caserio has proven to be an excellent player personnel guy and losing JG, McDaniels & Caserio over the course of a few months would significantly alter the future trajectory of this franchise.
 
Hey Ken, I love 8 miles from Bloomsburg(Tucker's alma mater and also Jahri Evans in modern day). Funny story. Tucker still lives in Hazleton and have seen him
at a local golf course. Don't know him though.

Trey Flowers is developing into a pro-bowl caliber player. I'm hoping Valentine
returns and Branch returns to form. If we get a rotation going with those two Malcolm Brown and Adam Butler. Why the hell did Kony Ealy decide he didn't want to play on a disciplined, great team? If we had an elephant player for the edge, we'd have a pretty good line.
 
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