A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[Huckleberry1]

When you start calling people "Nazi's" Ken then you get what you paid for. You have exposed yourself as a complete fraud and know nothing on this matter and topped it off with a "Nazi" reference. Rather than respond to another one of your lame 5,000 word posts i will just put you on ignore, which is where you belonged all along.

 

[ATippett56]

What's ridiculous are the comments being made that Talib is easily the most highly sought after free agent CB, and the comments that liken his salary to the top tier CB's pacts of Carr and Finnegan at 5/50+ and 30 million guaranteed.

Oh really?

Stanford Routt of Oakland Raiders signs three-year, $31.5M contract - ESPN

ALAMEDA, Calif. -- With the possibility of an NFL lockout on the horizon, Stanford Routt was happy to pass up the chance at free agency when the Oakland Raiders made him a big offer to stay off the open market.

Routt agreed to a three-year, $31.5 million deal to stay in Oakland and will be guaranteed $20 million over the first two years of the deal.

You have not taken into account either the stupidity and/or desperation of NFL general managers, especially those on the hot seat.

 

[supafly]

If money is equal I'd rather have Mike Wallace otherwise pay Wes.

You want to talk about dropped balls, Double TE? Wallace was the king of dropped balls this year in Pittsburgh. So much that even the Steeler diehards are ready to run him out of town.

Wallace is just another player who has a very high ceiling, but we cannot predict whether or not he'll live up to it. He certainly has not done enough to warrant the kind of money that he's asking for, but I'm sure that won't stop one of the usual suspects from paying him 10-11 million+.

It also should be known that he struggled to pick up Todd Haley's offensive system this year in Pittsburgh at times, so he's yet another player who may not be able to excel in this kind of scheme.

On top of that there have been rumors of attitude problems, although that is just speculation.

By retaining Welker we are guaranteed that the production will be higher, he'll know where to be to bail Brady out of jams (probably the most important aspect), he knows the system inside and out, and his toughness and attitude won't be anything of an issue.

Wallace may look like the "sexier/fancier" choice, but Welker is the guy who I'd want 100/100 times. That doesn't mean that the NEP will stop trying to find young and fast WR's in the draft or through UDFA either, in terms of trying to find the next Wallace that will come much cheaper.

 

[Double TE]

You want to talk about dropped balls, Double TE? Wallace was the king of dropped balls this year in Pittsburgh. So much that even the Steeler diehards are ready to run him out of town.

Wallace is just another player who has a very high ceiling, but we cannot predict whether or not he'll live up to it. He certainly has not done enough to warrant the kind of money that he's asking for, but I'm sure that won't stop one of the usual suspects from paying him 10-11 million+.

It also should be known that he struggled to pick up Todd Haley's offensive system this year in Pittsburgh at times, so he's yet another player who may not be able to excel in this kind of scheme.

On top of that there have been rumors of attitude problems, although that is just speculation.

By retaining Welker we are guaranteed that the production will be higher, he'll know where to be to bail Brady out of jams (probably the most important aspect), he knows the system inside and out, and his toughness and attitude won't be anything of an issue.

Wallace may look like the "sexier/fancier" choice, but Welker is the guy who I'd want 100/100 times. That doesn't mean that the NEP will stop trying to find young and fast WR's in the draft or through UDFA either, in terms of trying to find the next Wallace that will come much cheaper.

I am not disagreeing but his speed is ridiculous and he may be a beast in this system. Plus he is younger than Wes. I agree though the $$$ likely will be too high.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Oh really?

Stanford Routt of Oakland Raiders signs three-year, $31.5M contract - ESPN



You have not taken into account either the stupidity and/or desperation of NFL general managers, especially those on the hot seat.

But the truth is that's what it will take for Talib to get big money, stupidity, he certainly hasn't earned it and is way too unreliable to make a deal like that with him. The patriots have to hope he's willing to take considerably less and that is really doubtful. Even a four year 24 million deal with Talib is a risky one. I like what he adds to this defense and hope he helps them to a SB, I just don't think he's here long term./ Ironically if they win a SB his value will skyrocket but it will all be worth it regardless if that happens.

 

[ATippett56]

But the truth is that's what it will take for Talib to get big money, stupidity, he certainly hasn't earned it and is way too unreliable to make a deal like that with him. The patriots have to hope he's willing to take considerably less and that is really doubtful. Even a four year 24 million deal with Talib is a risky one. I like what he adds to this defense and hope he helps them to a SB, I just don't think he's here long term./ Ironically if they win a SB his value will skyrocket but it will all be worth it regardless if that happens.

Why would Talib sign a contract that only averages $6 million/year when a second tier cornerback such as Richard Marshall signed a 3 year, $16 million contract?

Richard Marshall - Miami Dolphins - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

3/14/2012: Signed a three-year, $16 million contract. The deal contains $6 million guaranteed, including a $3.5 million signing bonus. An annual $50,000 workout bonus is available throughout the life of the deal. 2013: $4.55 million, 2014: $5.3 million, 2015: Free Agent

 

[supafly]

Oh really?

Stanford Routt of Oakland Raiders signs three-year, $31.5M contract - ESPN



You have not taken into account either the stupidity and/or desperation of NFL general managers, especially those on the hot seat.

You can keep going on and on about Talib being the premier CB in free agency this year and well worth 5/50 with 30 guaranteed, but no one is really buying it.

I'll agree that maybe someone will overpay for Talib, sure, but it certainly isn't going to be a long term 5 year deal with 30 million guaranteed and 10 million on average. He falls into a wide range of CB's who are mid-level talents and somehow still manage to get 6-7 million per year due to the positional overvalue itself. There are many of them.

DeAngelo Hall (a comparable CB...maybe) spoke today of how he already knows that Washington isn't going to want to pay his 7.5 million dollar salary next year, saying that he realizes that the team is going to want him to take a pay cut so that both sides will be happy for the future. He said that he realizes that he will have to do that in order to stay in Washington, and he is fine with that.

A.Talib hasn't done much of anything since he came here, yet you keep talking like he went from the outhouse to the penthouse in a few games played. I'm not sure why you keep thinking that, when there hasn't been any proof at all of that occurring.

You keep forgetting that he was suspended when he came here, he had attitude problems his entire career, and that Greg Schiano was likely going to cut him for nothing. That isn't even bringing up the gun charge case where he was facing 20+ years that was dropped in the offseason.

Your comparison to Stanford Routt is just strange due to the fact that there have been many NFL teams who have overpaid for busts that haven't worked out...yet that certainly doesn't set the market for the majority of players and their future contracts.

Also, Routt didn't have the kind of off-field concerns and attitude questions that Talib has had during his career. Regardless, Stanford Routt is just another example of a bad NFL move, and probably shouldn't be used for much comparison.

Also, Routt's contract that you cited was for a much shorter range of time than those who you've been stating (Carr, Finnegan for 5 years and 30 million guaranteed), so if anything I'm not sure why you even bring that up? There's a major difference between a 5/50 contract with 30 guaranteed, and that of a shorter term deal of 3/30 with much, much less guaranteed.

 

[ATippett56]

DeAngelo Hall (a comparable CB...maybe) spoke today of how he already knows that Washington isn't going to want to pay his 7.5 million dollar salary next year, saying that he realizes that the team is going to want him to take a pay cut so that both sides will be happy for the future. He said that he realizes that he will have to do that in order to stay in Washington, and he is fine with that.

Redskins penalized $36M in salary cap space - Washington Times

 

[ATippett56]

Also, Routt's contract that you cited was for a much shorter range of time than those who you've been stating (Carr, Finnegan for 5 years and 30 million guaranteed), so if anything I'm not sure why you even bring that up? There's a major difference between a 5/50 contract with 30 guaranteed, and that of a shorter term deal of 3/30 with much, much less guaranteed.

Given the choice, I'll take Welker over Talib.

 

[supafly]

Why would Talib sign a contract that only averages $6 million/year when a second tier cornerback such as Richard Marshall signed a 3 year, $16 million contract?

Richard Marshall - Miami Dolphins - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

He probably won't, and that's why he probably won't be here, but no one is going to give him 5/50 with 30 guaranteed either.

The CB market being so insanely overvalued has brought many salaries in the 7 (approx.) or so million dollar range, and that's where Talib belongs, at best.

To answer the question as to why he'd accept much less? It's quite possible that he and his agent realize that he isn't going to attract the kind of offers up over 6-8 million dollars per year, and so he'll accept one here to remain a winner, improve his stock and perception, and play with a competitor.

Or he may also draw an offer for a much lower 1-2 year deal to try and do the same, here or otherwise.

One way or another for him to draw the kind of money that you're talking about he'd have to improve both his on and off field performance, so he may take less money to have a guarantee here (or elsewhere if the deal is better), or he may try to take advantage of a small "prove it" deal where he can try and get to the kind of money you're talking about next year or in 2014.

 

[supafly]

Given the choice, I'll take Welker over Talib.

5x over for me.

 

[ATippett56]

You can keep going on and on about Talib being the premier CB in free agency this year and well worth 5/50 with 30 guaranteed, but no one is really buying it.

I'll agree that maybe someone will overpay for Talib, sure, but it certainly isn't going to be a long term 5 year deal with 30 million guaranteed and 10 million on average. He falls into a wide range of CB's who are mid-level talents and somehow still manage to get 6-7 million per year due to the positional overvalue itself. There are many of them.

All it takes is one NFL franchise, especially one that now has to comply with the salary cap floor for the 2013 League Year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Given the choice, I'll take Welker over Talib.

Talib's not important, in and of himself. A CB capable of keeping McCourty at the S position is important. At this point, I think you keep McCourty at safety and hope he avoids Eugene Wilson Syndrome.

 

[supafly]

Redskins penalized $36M in salary cap space - Washington Times

A good amount of that money was already penalized this year, I think.

I thought the majority of it anyway.

 

[supafly]

Talib's not important, in and of himself. A CB capable of keeping McCourty at the S position is important. At this point, I think you keep McCourty at safety and hope he avoids Eugene Wilson Syndrome.

I certainly agree with this statement, and it's also why it's looking like (in my opinion) that he won't be here unless he somehow wants to take a 1-2 year deal at a lesser rate to try and showcase himself up to the higher tiered talent. There's also the playing for a competitor/winner factor too, and even the atmosphere and coaching.

As far as McCourty staying at safety, I think there are plenty of options to do just that via the draft, FA, and even possibly Dowling, even if that means dealing with some growing pains..again.

Either way, they aren't going to give him a ton of money in my opinion, and the more I think about it I would rate keeping Talib as middle of the pack in terms of priorities, if not even towards the lower end. I initially had him as the 2nd or 3rd priority, but I don't think that's true anymore.

 

[ATippett56]

2012 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

First Downs

Welker - 72 (6)
Lloyd - 50 (22)

2012 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Yards After Catch (YAC)

Welker - 619 (1)
Lloyd - 180 (115)

2012 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Targets

Welker - 174 (4)
Lloyd - 130 (19)

Catch Rate

Welker - 118/174 = 67.8%
Lloyd - 74/130 = 56.9%

Now pay the man!

 

[supafly]

2012 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

First Downs

Welker - 72 (6)
Lloyd - 50 (22)

2012 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Yards After Catch (YAC)

Welker - 619 (1)
Lloyd - 180 (115)

2012 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Targets

Welker - 174 (4)
Lloyd - 130 (19)

Catch Rate

Welker - 118/174 = 67.8%
Lloyd - 74/130 = 56.9%

Now pay the man!

Just the targets alone at 174 speak volumes to what would happen if he were gone.

174...

With 72 first downs, good lord.

 

[resdubwhite]

question to all Welker fans here.

how much is too much to resign him?

 

[DocHoliday]

Some other thoughts to consider:

1.) Would giving Brady a deep burner replace Welker's production? Probably not - Brady's not a terrific deep ball thrower, especially since nobody we could bring in compares to Moss.

2.) A slot receiver who can go deep would improve versatility a la Cruz. Harvin could do that, and is probably the ONLY guy I would personally take over Welker.

3.) If Welker goes, would Edelman really take his spot? I'm not so sure - others have mentioned that Hernandez was running his routes while Edelman was working the sideline ( remember the Ravens game?)

It's important to think how roles change. It may not just be downgrading the slot - other players will be shifted around.

4.) Most importantly - what does Brady want? Manning's role in bringing back Stokely tells us how important a slot receiver is to his QB. They're get out jail cards for the panicking QB.

5.) Did I mention how Stokely's playing fine at 36? If Welker plays as well as that guy, who was never as good as Wes, at 36, we'll be happy.

 

[Huckleberry1]

question to all Welker fans here.

how much is too much to resign him?

Tough question, especially since it changes with the length of any deal and the guaranteed and NLTBE money constructed into it. I am probably the outlier and would go longer and higher than most because I believe his game is constructed on quickness and football IQ and don't believe either will diminish any time soon. His speed might go downhill and thus his YAC may start to tail off 4-5 years from now but I don't see his ability to get open slumping until he is 36+, if then, it could be closer to 40. So, setting the bar at what I am guessing is the highest level I would say 60 million plus for 6 years. However people would need to take into consideration that the last year or 2 of that deal are likely to be loaded with NLTBE money so the real questions with it are going to be how much leverage would the team have if he were still performing at a really high level and what the dead money would be if they cut him after 4-5 years. If they structured the deal so they had a great deal of leverage and any dead money would be tolerable then they could go this long and this high, however, this is the high end of any possible deal and not likely to be what it really takes for them to sign him, which is probably going to be a 4-40 deal which is really a 3-30 deal that would only leave them with about 5 million in dead money iof he didn't close it out or redo it, and i believe he would be able to be important enough to them at 35-36 to do just that.

If Welker is willing to take anything under 50 million that ends up around 10 million a season they should do it imo, but I would guess that for most here the top end is not going to go any higher than that. And then we have the people who don't want him here who claim they would go to 8 million but are really talking about 2/16, which is both idiotic and an insult to him as he has earned much more than that, would get 12 simply for signing a 1 year tag, and would get much much more on the open market from a team that wants to win now.

HOF quality players are a really rare commodity, and despite all of the success of the Patriots we have seen very few go there from this franchise. In this era we have been blessed with an abundance of great players, but still are looking at very few who actually have a shot at getting into Canton, and Welker, despite all the bashers he has in this forum who call him too slow, too small, just a UDFA jag, too old blah blah blah, is a player who has been performing at a HOF level and will get in if he continues at this pace for a few more years. The only other players on this team with that chance are Brady, who is in, and Wilfork and Mankins who have a decent shot as it stands. Imo players like this have set themselves apart and deserve to be treated by both the team and the fans as such. The team has shown the ability to get deals done with these players without strapping themselves against the cap and they should get one done with Welker as soon as possible. It is not going to take anywhere near what he has actually earned on the field because he is not going to demand a CJ/Fitzgerald type of deal, and if he did then even I would say they need to go another route.

All that said i am sure the Welker bashers here will now use this post to claim they can't pay Welker but once again they will simply be distorting the issue as this post was designed to outline the highest possible end for those who believe they should go to that length, the majority of the Welker supporters are probably going to come in significantly lower, closer to the 4-40 or 3-30 level that a number of us have been espousing for a long long time.