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In a way this reminds me a little of 2011.
In 2011 the defense could not be trusted (in fact, they were far worse than this year's team), and despite being the one seed the Pats weren't taken seriously as a contender. The national media was already anointing the winner to be the Packers or Saints. Sort of like how this year they are looking at the Saints, Chiefs, and Rams.
The Pats still have a chance to break up the party.
Here's my version of a realistic best case scenario.
Pats get the #2 seed, and have to face Houston in round #3.
The Chargers overthrow the Chiefs, get #1 seed. KC gets #5 seed, wins first playoff game but loses to the Chargers.
Pats travel to the Chargers for the AFC title game.
Your best case scenario is even better. If the Pats get to the AFCC vs the Chargers they'd be playing at Gillette because we won the AFCE.
The comparison to 2011 is great for this thread. The team who did eventually win the SB (NYG) took 4 games to do it. That was 4 Games to Glory II for the Giants.