2026 schedule

[Ring 6]

Funny how no one (but me) expected us to have a 10+ win season because the schedule was weak last year, now after going 14-3 everyone is afraid of the schedule and our record will be dictated by it.

 

[MrTibbs]

Home:
Bills
Jets
Dolphins
Broncos
Raiders
Packers
Vikings
Steelers

Away:
Bills
Jets
Dolphins
Chargers
Chiefs
Seahawks
Bears
Lions
Jags

Harder than 2025 was for sure but is it really that scary? The Jets and Dolphins probably won't be competitive this season. I’m glad we play GB, Min and Den at home. Seahawks on the road will be very tough. I can see the SB rematch being a prime time game as will one of the Bills games. I’m not that concerned about the Pats in Arrowhead and I’m not sure if the Chiefs will be that good in 2026 anyway. Pats can win in Detroit and Jax. Bears might be a sneaky tough road game.

Not gonna predict records yet but assuming good health I can’t see the Pats faceplanting against this schedule like many think we will.

If they have the luck of health as they did last season the Pats will win more games than the haters will like.

 

[neuronet]

After last season that’s definitely a tough one! People shrugging at this schedule gimme what you are smoking

 

[TheRainMaker]

It's certainly going to be more difficult than last season. In 2025, they were scheduled to face 6 teams with .500 record and above. It turned out they only played 3 games with the Ravens, Bucs and Bengals slipping from the previous season. For 2026, they are scheduled to have 10 games facing teams at least .500 and above record.

Traveling back in time, the 2001 Pats were scheduled to face 9 teams from the previous season that had a .500 or better record. It turned out to only be 6 with Indy (twice) and New Orleans having a down year.

In 2002, they were scheduled to play 10 games from the previous season that had a .500 or better record. It turned out to be 13 with the additional games against the Bills twice and the Titans. This was the primary reason they missed the playoffs with the awful defense being the other.

What teams for the 2026 season that had a winning record could you see slipping? They face the Bills twice, Jags, Seahawks, Packers, Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Bears and the Chargers. What teams could replace them if any?

 

[n1997y]

Not even favored to repeat as AFC East champs.

 

[Gumby]

The question that was never well answered:
- why was the 2025 team so good on road and bad at home (3 losses),,,':::

And therefore…..
As NICE as the home schedule looks: only 2 tough (GB/Vikes)/ one ?tough?( Jills w new coaching)
Will they play at home like they did in 2025 and give up a few shoulda won games?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The question that was never well answered:
- why was the 2025 team so good on road and bad at home (3 losses),,,':::

And therefore…..
As NICE as the home schedule looks: only 2 tough (GB/Vikes)/ one ?tough?( Jills w new coaching)
Will they play at home like they did in 2025 and give up a few shoulda won games?

Scheduling luck, mostly.

 

[Triumph]

After last season that’s definitely a tough one! People shrugging at this schedule gimme what you are smoking

Maye has a lot to prove.

 

[neuronet]

Maye has a lot to prove.

The playoff arc, and the Super Bowl, will provide a lot of motivation for the entire offense. Our defense carried us to the SB and tried their best to bring us the W there as well.

 

[p8ryts]

The playoff arc, and the Super Bowl, will provide a lot of motivation for the entire offense. Our defense carried us to the SB and tried their best to bring us the W there as well.

If the defense sustains it's end of year excellence, we will be in all the games. It's up to the offense to actually win the games. Just improve the offensive line. Puleeze!!!!

 

[Patjew]

I think a 10.5 o/u for wins makes sense. My way too early prediction has been 10-7. I'm expecting to continue the rebuild with a step back in 2026 like the team took in 2002 and then hopefully some dominance to follow in the following seasons.

Of course I am not throwing in the towel for 2026. I can see them possibly winning the AFCE.

 

[Triumph]

The playoff arc, and the Super Bowl, will provide a lot of motivation for the entire offense. Our defense carried us to the SB and tried their best to bring us the W there as well.

Dan Marino made it to the Super Bowl,but never got back. A fan called Rich Eisens show post SB60 and stated that a few QBs also went to a SB, but could not make it back.

Maye is already ahead of Herbert, but it's going to take Lombardis in NE or else there will be another Bledsoe divide.

I didn't like Maye whining to McDaniels in the AFCC that it was hard.

 

[jmt57]

The reality is that in 2025 the Patriots (and Bills) faced the weakest divison in the AFC as well as the weakest division in the NFC.

A second reality is that in 2026 the Pats (and Bills) will face the the division with the 2nd best record in the AFC in 2025, and the division with the 2nd best record in the NFC in 2025.

A third reality is that the three at-large 2026 games will be against teams that finished the previous season in first place in 2025, as opposed to three fourth place on the 2025 schedule.

A fourth reality is that the Patriots will be drafting 31st rather than 4th, so improvements via the draft are expected to be fewer and less impactful in both quantity and quality.


As a result, the 2026 Patriots as a team will have to vastly improve just to finish with the same record. The most likely outcome is that the team as a whole improves, yet the final regular season record will drop. Staying steady, neither improving nor regressing will absolutely result in a worse won-loss record. A regression (multiple injuries to key players) will result in a losing record.


2025 Records by Division:
29-15, .659 - NFC West
28-17, .636 - NFC North - 2026 opponent (every team w/a winning record)
24-20, .545 - AFC East
24-20, .545 - AFC South
22-22, .500 - AFC West - 2026 opponent (KC with down 2025)
18-26, .409 - NFC South - 2025 opponent (no teams w/a winning record)
17-27, .386 - AFC North - 2025 opponent (one team w/a winning record)
15-29, .341 - NFC East

 

[ctpatsfan77]

A fourth reality is that the Patriots will be drafting 31st rather than 4th, so improvements via the draft are expected to be fewer and less impactful in both quantity and quality.

As I noted in another thread, though, the entire difference in draft capital given a SB team vs. the capital given the worst team in the league is concentrated in that 1.01 pick.

 

[Real fan 02]

I definitely think we proved ourselves as far as afc elite in the playoffs. Everyone is going to be remembering the sb and saying we were exposed or something , i just think Seattle is that good and we need improvements to get on that level.

But we proved through the postseason by handling 2 very good teams in Houston/lac, winning in Denver , and our matchups with buffalo that no afc team is superior to us as we stand. I think most of these games in 26 id feel pretty confident going into and if we do bolster interior ol/edge/lb along with some depth pieces and maybe one more passing weapon we are going to be really freaking good, maybe tops in the nfl.

Spot on... the 2025 patiots still unbelievable don't get the respect they deserve even some on patsfans.com don't give them credit.. having seen the 2 best defensive teams in the league in the playoffs in Houston and Denver go to Denver a place we can never win in the playoffs...

We are an afc contender.. I can assure you.. when we do Seattle again it will be a different game all around..

Some have called us a historical weal schedule.. what about Seattle? Will they face the 9ners twice again missing half thier roster? Could we say a fully healthy 9ners team would have beaten Seattle?

A puka nucua dropped pass got them to the superbowl..

We showed championship pedigree in our route in the playoffs.. that will only benefit us.. we didn't get to the superbowl by mistake.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Spot on... the 2025 patiots still unbelievable don't get the respect they deserve even some on patsfans.com don't give them credit.. having seen the 2 best defensive teams in the league in the playoffs in Houston and Denver go to Denver a place we can never win in the playoffs...

We are an afc contender.. I can assure you.. when we do Seattle again it will be a different game all around..

Some have called us a historical weal schedule.. what about Seattle? Will they face the 9ners twice again missing half thier roster? Could we say a fully healthy 9ners team would have beaten Seattle?

A puka nucua dropped pass got them to the superbowl..

We showed championship pedigree in our route in the playoffs.. that will only benefit us.. we didn't get to the superbowl by mistake.

Agreed, i think the patriots disproved the weak schedule narrative for the most part, its just that Seattle and maybe the rams looked to be a notch above the afc elite. But i think if we have a good offseason we’ll be neck and neck with them too. A really great offseason and we could be favorites.

 

[Real fan 02]

Agreed, i think the patriots disproved the weak schedule narrative for the most part, its just that Seattle and maybe the rams looked to be a notch above the afc elite. But i think if we have a good offseason we’ll be neck and neck with them too. A really great offseason and we could be favorites.

Agreed with you.. but if you look at something the rams barely beat the Panthers and the Seattle "vaunted " defense got carved up by Stafford.. I'm of the opinion had the offensive line held up we would have gave Seattle a game.. our defense shut down Seattle's offense..

 

[brdmaverick]

The question that was never well answered:
- why was the 2025 team so good on road and bad at home (3 losses),,,':::

While I might get killed for saying this, but I think this team is better suited to play in warm or 'climate-controlled' conditions.

One trait that sets Maye apart from his competition is his deepball accuracy. You add winter elements and that advantage is reduced.

And yes, I realize the two of the three home losses were in good weather (I think that was the team still getting acclimated).

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

You & others may have said something like this but our SB appearance is like we lost our 1st round pick again BUT...
We get the Very Best picks in the 2nd 3rd 4th...
When the OLD 21st Century Pats lost their #1 pick they got the Worst picks in the 2nd 3rd 4th etc.
Draft wisely.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Might be the toughest schedule for the Patriots since...2014? In a span of several weeks that team beat Denver, Chargers, Detroit, Indy, & barely lost @ Lambeau field. They lost one legit game after week 4. Impressive.

Patriots will probably win a game or two that they shouldn't and vice versa. 10-7 might be enough to win the division. And that is all that matters. Along with health. Another good thing is that Maye has a chance to prove alot of doubters (due to recent schedule & postseason performances) wrong.