2022 NEP Draft recap/thoughts

[long distance]

after/math: people who least watched/knew Strange were the most angry/vocal..




It will be interesting to revisit Zion and Cole 4y down the road - head to head - production, versatility etc

Of course the full Draft math (fwiw) would be:
Zion (17)
vs
Strange (29) + Marcus Jones (pick necessary to trade up for Zion) + Jack Jones + Zappe (from trade down) + 2023 3rd

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

after/math: people who least watched/knew Strange were the most angry/vocal..

Thanks for the post. That is always how it is. The complainers like to complain, it makes them feel good for some reason. Not something I understand. I find it embarrassing for them. Reading some of the complaining posts is like watching I Love Lucy.

 

[captain stone]

My thoughts during the weekend:

Loved the trade-down; as soon as Davis & Penning were both gone, I wanted out of 21... I would've previously stayed for McDuffie but I knew that there would be good ones still available at 29 the way the previous 20 picks had gone...

29 should've been either Karlaftis or one of the DBs (Hill, Booth, Gordon), Plain & Simple; and I think I would've hoped aboard the Dax Hill Express, because he very likely would've played more snaps and sooner while the others learned on the sidelines to start the season...

HATED the trade-up; Too Much for Not Enough... I was really, Really hoping it would be Travis Jones but if not then Skyy Moore... Another case where Need matched Talent... But it was neither so 158 was a Complete ****ing Throw-Away.

Before Friday, would anyone else in the Entire Human ****ing Race have chosen TyQuan Thornton ahead of Skyy Moore... or Alec Pierce... or Jalen Tolbert... or even Romeo Doubs?

85 should've been 3/3 on Defense: DE Cam Thomas, whom I would've very strongly considered at 54 (along with OLman Bernhard SeaBass Jr Raimann but NOT Strange69) if Travis Jones weren't available there...Tolbert or OLman Sean Ryan would've been my pick here if Thomas were unavailable; but the drop-off from him to the next group was too precipitous, and besides I already passed-over Karlaftis so I didn't want to risk losing the last of the really good DE prospects... Judon needs help too after all.

Liked the trade-down; we need more picks for next year, and we should still find somebody at 137 close to whom we would've considered at 94 anyway...

But I ****ING HATED EVERY SINGLE ****ING PICK OF THAT ENTIRE FOURTH ****ING ROUND. That made the 3rd round of 2020 look like the 1st round of 1973 by comparison...

After going all defense the first two days, I'm starting Day 3 with two picks for the offense: OLman Zachary Tom & WR Romeo Doubs, the best players available at their respective positions... Except for being a dozen lbs lighter, Tom has very similar physical & athletic traits to Strange69; and while not being as straight-line fast as BoneyT, my Romeo is a more polished receiver overall.

At 137, I'm taking the best DB available because our secondary ****ing sucks and all my other needs have been filled at least once: Zion McCollum, another physical & athletic specimen like Hill but with Outside CB experience, albeit at a lower level - but that doesn't matter to Bill, amirite? The Jones Boys can **** off.

At 158 because I'm not a ****ing idiot like Notgoat, all you RB-lovers can have one here as the Bonus Plan... But I instead choose Ty Chandler, a possible more-legit 3rd-down weapon than Strong, and almost as fast.

As per one of my goals pre-draft, I'm going to continue double-dipping at positions of need, this time for the OL at 183, a different body type than Tom but also with college LT experience: Jamaree Salyer, whose fall had more to do with injury/weight concerns than it had to do with performance concerns; and at 183 I'm much less concerned than I would've been at 121.

More double-dipping at 200 & 210...First, the best DE still available: Isaiah Thomas, Beast... Then, the best WR still available: Bo Melton, Speed AND Quickness... unlike BoneyT.

And finally, to complete the draft at 245 I present to you DB #3 (I've already double-dipped at OL, WR & DE), from the University of Bill Belichick Junior itself: Josh Jobe, already well-versed in the way our secondary works up here too... He'll need to completely recover from the foot injury that prevented him from working-out before the draft, but as soon as that happens he should be able to become a future #4, similar to JCJ during the Gilmore-JMac-JJones days.

P.S.: At 121, Darian Kinnard was the other OLman I had considered there, but he's strictly a Right-side Only player and I felt that Tom offered rare C/LG/LT versatility & athleticism;

P.P.S.: At 127, the other WRs I had considered there were Khalil Shakir & Calvin Austin... Shakir doesn't seem athletically to offer much if any more than what Bourne & Meyers already do; and Austin, while the most dynamic of the three, is just so...darn...smaaaaaal... And No I would NOT have considered BoneyT even here; 158 at the Earliest, same with Marcus the Midget & Pierre Strong.

P.P.P.S.: At 158, for those who considered LB a greater draft need than RB, there were still two players available whom I would've considered worthy of the pick:

Darian Beavers, a Patriot-Type LB; or at least was thought one until recently... He still would've given us a younger, more athletic version of Bentley, Tavai & Langhi, so that's still worth something at this point of the draft; and we also still don't know what we have in McMillan & McGroan...

...and Damone Clark, a very possible Day 2 pick were it not for his recent back surgery... The value certainly would've been there, but I wouldn't blame folks if they didn't want to go through another wait for a rookie's medical red-shirt season...

However, if Calvin Austin were still available at 158, then all bets are off and I'm taking him there to groom as our 3rd-Down Back of the Future.

 

[mgteich]

TRADE - great value
#29 - let's say Karlafis, since Belichick liked the CB's later
#50 - Belichick probably picks the highest IOL, if he were lucky enough to have Strange fall. After all, we needed THREE IOL's, including a starter.
#85 - your favorite WR instead of a backup nickel, and returner
121, 127, and 137 were all 4th rounders that met a need. I don't see huge issues.
==============================
So, Karlafis and a WR at 85 instead of
M Jones and Thronton (another alternative is a different WR at 85.
================
I suspect that Belichick didn't like Karlafis enough to take the risk that Strange wouldn't be there.

 

[captain stone]

TRADE - great value
#29 - let's say Karlafis, since Belichick liked the CB's later
#50 - Belichick probably picks the highest IOL, if he were lucky enough to have Strange fall. After all, we needed THREE IOL's, including a starter.
#85 - your favorite WR instead of a backup nickel, and returner

29 - GKarlaftis DE
54 - CStrange OL... No need for a trade-up.
85 - Jalen Tolbert WR

I can live with that... Need to find CBs & a Beef Curtain tomorrow...

121, 127, and 137 were all 4th rounders that met a need. I don't see huge issues.

I do (naturally)... Exactly what need does a small, 3rd-string-caliber QB meet? It was also too early for a RB; and the second Jones wasn't even close to being the best available CB at the time of his selection.

I suspect that Belichick didn't like Karlafis enough to take the risk that Strange wouldn't be there.

Strange would've been there; the picks from 33-53 show it.

 

[mgteich]

.




Strange would've been there; the picks from 33-53 show it.

No.

It is speculated that 4 teams needin OG's had Strange ranked before 54. It is irrelevant that you or I ranked no one (including Strange) before 54 really isn't that relevant.

 

[Patsgofor4]

The draft-nicks all said that Baltimore killed it, right? Not everyone is giving them an A+.

Late for Work 5/9: NFL Execs Scrutinize Ravens’ Draft Choices

NFL.com pundits agree the Ravens had the No. 1 draft. Ravens show dedication to improving the offensive line with their first-round selection of center Tyler Linderbaum.

www.baltimoreravens.com

 

[Patsgofor4]

Nobody drafts as well as the Ravens, right? They kill it every year, right?

Or, maybe not….

Private Site

Ravens' 2nd- and 3rd-round draft failures continue with trade of Kamalei Correa

[jwplayer tXd5adBr-ThvAeFxT] The Baltimore Ravens are truly the masters of the NFL draft. General manager Ozzie Newsome has struck absolute gold so many times it can’t simply be chalked up to…

ravenswire.usatoday.com

Plus:
2nd Round - 2010 / LB Sergio Kindle
2nd Round - 2010 / DT Terrence Cody

These are just their day 1 and 2 duds. There are numerous other day 3 whiffs.

I’m not saying that the Ravens don’t do a good job with the draft. They do. What I’m saying is those who believe that BB is a terrible drafter/evaluator of college talent don’t have a clue or they do know the overall hit/miss rate in the draft but just ignore the facts/stats because it doesn’t fit their biased, negative agenda.

I’ve posted this chart in the past, but it is a good one to review again, in order to bring a dose of reality to this discussion.

What stats tells us about the draft by round

2005-2014 numbers

Once you reach the 3rd round, the chances that a team will find a consistent starter is poor. Even in the second round, the chances of finding a starter are roughly 50% at best, other than the OL. If you look at the numbers in more detail there are differences in the safety and cornerback (DB) hit rate (better chance of finding a starter at safety and rounds 2-4) as well as the different positions among the DL and LB groups but the overall message stands……

The draft is an inexact science and every team is going to have more misses than hits, if you look at a adequately large sample size. If the Belichick haters cared to look at the rest of the teams with as critical an eye as they do the Pats, they would realize (even if they didn’t want to admit it) that BB and co., despite the many painful and high profile misses, have done very well over the past 20 years, relative to the rest of the league, particularly given that they have drafted near the end of each round for the vast majority of the Brady-Belichick years.

(not even taking into account for three 1st round picks that were stolen by the league office, in conjunction with jealous owners).

 

[DaBruinz]

Agreed. But after training camp the Ravens were open to trading Wade, and after seeing Wade all year in 2021, the Patriots picked Marcus Jones in the 3rd round who is clearly a slot corner. Jon Jones kicks outside and Marcus Jones and Wade are the slot corners? Will Wade kick outside and we will let Jon Jones go after this year? It is a fluid situation, but I am not sure where Wade fits in. Luckily, if luck is involved, we have a bunch of options for slot and outside corner so we will see if all, or any, pan out.

I think that Marcus Jones was brought in to learn the slot position from Jon Jones as Jones is in the last year of his contract. I think that WADE should see time in the slot and on the outside. Last year proved that the CB depth chart needs to be 5 deep, including 2-3 who can play the slot.

 

[DaBruinz]

29 - GKarlaftis DE
54 - CStrange OL... No need for a trade-up.
85 - Jalen Tolbert WR

I can live with that... Need to find CBs & a Beef Curtain tomorrow...


I do (naturally)... Exactly what need does a small, 3rd-string-caliber QB meet? It was also too early for a RB; and the second Jones wasn't even close to being the best available CB at the time of his selection.


Strange would've been there; the picks from 33-53 show it.

I think it's absolutely delusional that you think Strange would still have been there when it's been reported by at least 1 Pats-hating Pundit that Strange wasn't making it past 43. Add that to the reports that 3 other teams had 1st round grades on Strange and both the Vikings and Seahawks were interested in Strange at the top of the 2nd and there is no way he was making it to 50, let alone 54.

For you to say that the picks 33-53 show it is laughable when those picks were made with Strange off the board. When Strange went off the board, teams went to their next highest rated player. Not next highest rated at a particular position.

This is why you will never be correct about where players should be drafted. You refuse to understand how teams actually view players. You think that the Draftniks you trip over yourself reading are the Bee's Knees. The reality is that they're there for entertainment and to cause controversy. It's pretty sad when there are reports out prior to the draft saying how the Draftnicks have things wrong about certain players but people like you just ignore it..

 

[Ivan]

Damn, that’s a sh.t load of work.

 

[Ivan]

I said WTF when the drafted Strange. Now I think he was a really good pick, because he’s a much better athlete than most of us thought at the time, and his intangibles are exceptional. Keeping interior pressure off your QB is a priority, and the interior of the Patriots OL looks really good to me.

 

[long distance]

I think that Marcus Jones was brought in to learn the slot position from Jon Jones as Jones is in the last year of his contract. I think that WADE should see time in the slot and on the outside. Last year proved that the CB depth chart needs to be 5 deep, including 2-3 who can play the slot.

He was drafted to compete for jobs. He'll learn from the coaches AND put pressure on Jonathan who has zero guarantees to make the roster.

In an ideal roster scenario he would take over returning duties and win the nickel job saving Pats some 5M cap space.

Then again if JJ bounces back nicely from injury they might offer him extension with some leverage on account of Marcus “pressure“.
JJ is also a decent trade asset.

 

[Water Boy]

I'm feeling better about the draft. According to Ian's article the Steelers may have had interest in Thorton in Rd 2. If true that would be telling. If Marcus Jones and Jack Jones pan out in the secondary, it makes the Strange pick a good one.

I understand the reason to trade Mason was to be able to pay Trent Brown. Just wish we could have done better than a 5th.

 

[captain stone]

No.

It is speculated that 4 teams needin OG's had Strange ranked before 54. It is irrelevant that you or I ranked no one (including Strange) before 54 really isn't that relevant.

Whatever... I wouldn't have taken Strange69 at 54 either; I instead would've taken SeaBass Junior if I were looking to draft an OLman there (naturally I would've drafted DT Travis Jones over All of them) ... In fact if the Pats had taken Raimann as early as 29 the pick wouldn't have looked nearly as egregious as when they took Strange69 there, because I consider Raimann a better prospect anyway.

 

[Wozzy]

If Wade is supposed to be a slot corner, why was Bryant playing ahead of him.

Because he was a rookie, and nobody said he had to play in slot or would.

 

[DaBruinz]

Whatever... I wouldn't have taken Strange69 at 54 either; I instead would've taken SeaBass Junior if I were looking to draft an OLman there (naturally I would've drafted DT Travis Jones over All of them) ... In fact if the Pats had taken Raimann as early as 29 the pick wouldn't have looked nearly as egregious as when they took Strange69 there, because I consider Raimann a better prospect anyway.

ROFLMAO..

Clearly NFL teams don't agree with your assessment of Raimann since he didn't go until the 3rd round. The same with Travis Jones who also didn't go until the 3rd round. Think about that. The Patriots decided to pass on BOTH twice despite the perceived need. In fact, the NFL teams thought both Travis Jones and Raimann were 3rd round picks.

Seriously, have you ever done a self-eval of your claims? You're wrong more often than your right. And I've never once seen you admit to being wrong. Particularly about Onwenu and Dugger. Both of which have shown you to be a fool.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Looked at OL picks on days 1 and 2 going back to 2011 -- arbitrary cutoff, got bored. 2022 and 2013 tied in that span for offensive lineman drafted in the first round (9) and interior OL drafted in the first round (4). '13 and '22 drafts similar in that top of the draft was not considered strong and well below par QB class (EJ Manuel only 1st RDer). In a weaker overall class offensive lineman may look like better bets. Lately teams have taken more OL early -- three of the last four years have seen 20 lineman or more drafted days one and two vs just one such season in the previous seven drafts ('11-'17) in my small sample.

My initial reaction to Logan Mankins was the same as Strange -- disappointment and confusion. Cole Strange's main athletic comp is Evan Mathis -- that's good. Vs Kentucky he showed tremendous movement on reach blocks and appears to have excellent technique. He needs to add strength like Joe Thuney was able to do early in his career.

I think Belichick was right in saying Strange wouldn't have lasted much longer. Tampa may have taken him at 33 -- they took at 57 a player who projects to start at LG, having lost Ali Marpet to retirement. A mini run on interior lineman from 51 to 67 with five players selected may indicate that teams saw a tier break from Strange and the next group of interior lineman selected. It could also indicate he was drafted too high, I'm just taking a different angle than referring to consensus mock drafts.

From 70 to 83 there are multiple players -- Muma, C. Harris, T. Jones, Raimann, Dean -- mocked higher than Strange who would have garnered the Pats a better draft grade in articles written before Day 2 started. This would have been bad process based on what we know now --- any of them could have been grabbed in Round 2. We will see how it turns out, just some things to consider.

 

[long distance]

Another thing to consider..

Im just going through 2023 extended OL class (some will not declare) and with each player i watch the Strange pick looks sounder..

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Been busy with 2023 prospects, life and work but I know someone asked me about Strong last week via pm.

Pierre Strong is a very deliberate pick. Very different from the bruising downhill style of Rham truck & Harris. Truly a great compliment to their power, contact balance and ability to run downhill. Strong might lack in some of those areas but he really brings something different and shapes up this group nicely.

Hes got serious acceleration and fast twitch. Which after patience/setting up your blocks, is the most important thing for stretch plays, OZ. Basically has one gear but he gets to 0-100 real quick. Good long speed. Some guys run a fast 10-20 yard split some need that first 10 yards to build up that speed. Strong gets into top gear extremely fast. I mentioned it above but he's very good, very patient setting up his blocks and using his blockers to his advantage. He'll help himself a lot by setting up the 2nd level where people will just see his speed. It can be a detriment as well bc he'll get stuck in the 1st level at times but he's not the most versatile back in terms of what you'll run so you live with the shortcomings and commit to his strengths. He does a nice job shaping the landscape to his liking in the 2nd and 3rd levels. Of course having 4.3 speed doesn't hurt. And speed is a funny thing. I always go back to Josh Boyce bc he's an easy example. He was lightning fast but couldn't utilize in the game. What does that mean? He couldn’t keep that speed while adjusting his stem or path in-route. He couldn't stop/start fast with a person shadowing him. Sure he's fast running a 40 but football is hardly a straight line. Strong is very good at keeping full speed while shifting a little bit, changing his path, weaving through defenders. One of the more impressive things about his game. He's got some nice COD at full speed. Not so much bounce around like Barry Sanders COD but shifting, turning while keeping top speed.

I like his rec upside but there's not a lot to go in terms of tape, r/r potential. He hung around the flat most of the time. You'd like to see more r/r but he's comfortable in the moment which matters to me. Seems to have soft hands. No clapping or unnatural technique catching the ball. Like pass pro not a lot of reps in this department. So making a concrete judgment this early wouldn't be wise. He doesn't freak out or look uncomfortable though so I think there's decent potential there if we utilize him and coach him up behind the scenes. I'm praying to old AND new gods we utilize Rham in that department! I've said this a few times last year but please give him some work in the MOF on those option routes. He's got some nice wiggle and shake for 225-230 and can handle the added responsibilities I believe. I'd love to see him and Harris catch just a few more passes early in the game.

Pass pro is iffy, I'd like to say "hit or miss" but I got more "miss" than hits looking at the collective. He's very willing and capable but was extremely hesitant on certain rushes. Extremely might be too much. The hesitancy and indecision were noticeable, technique wasn't terrible but there also wasn't a ton of reps to go through to critique or praise. Not a lot of examples either way. When he was in on the action I got an inconsistent vibe from a technical standpoint. Dropped his head on occasion, hand placement could definitely improve. Urgency and attitude could also improve. I remember saying last years class overriding trait was "attitude" from Mac to Barmore to Rham. Rham had serious issues in pass pro coming into the league (I believe I mentioned that in his thread after the draft) but has major attitude and fight. I'd like to see Strong be a little more aggressiveness in this department.

Alluded to his vision above. Definitely above average. Skill set limits usage in a sense bc he's not an in between the tackles runner but he really makes use of it setting up himself up once he gets away from the 1st level of defenders.

He's also a big time play waiting to happen. Multiple 1k seasons, multiple big runs 10 +, averaged 7 + per clip and 40 + TD. That's not a fluke and what you want to see. Again not sure about #'s and expectations this year but he'll absolutely contribute and have a role sooner rather than later imo.