2019 NE CAP SPACE

[supafly]

Far from obvious really bc no one here/media knows how Pats cap really looks from inside.

Ok, lets see what A.J.Green 2019 cap would really cost if traded for:

1. Green is in his last year of a 4 yr extension he signed in 2015. 12M salary not guaranteed.
Bengals normally have 2 options - extension or trade. With significant coaching change that usually provokes some sort of re-build mode (and in CIN it really should) the trade of A.J. Green imo is quite likely esp. since Green will be 31 when season starts.

2. If Pats trade for Green they inherit a 1y contract of 12.2M cap hit with 0 guarantees.
Extension at that point would be imminent. Lets say Pats don't want to invest too much into Green's future and they agree he basically just gets the money owed guaranteed over next 2 years - that would lower his 2019 cap hit by half. If they want less cap hit they can structure the deal accordingly. OTC extension projection for AJ is 9M cap saving in 2019 - in case of trade to NE that means A.J. Green would take away less than 3M of cap space.

bottom line: A.J. Green's trade and extension should take between 3-6M of 2019 cap.
Like @Kenneth Sims wrote multiple times Pats can easily obtain this.

All considered this would actually be a very possible and most economic move (depending on compensation).

3. A.J. Green trade would not be at all about cap space. It would be about how BB&co value 31y old receiver who was not himself lately (production, health, behaviour) and about the opportunity - bc they will not be the only ones interested..

Still have other business to take care of like kicker, punter, at least one of Humbar/McClellan, not to mention the idea of freeing up money for the draftees + a few bucks for the season.

The idea of extending a guy who like you said, has not been himself and has been hurt lately is a fairly big gamble. In BB we trust.

 

[supafly]

depth signings and rookie class will happen, no big signings (acquisitions).

I still think we could get a guy like Cobb, Nelson, or Garçon. Not seeing how guys like AJ Green or Justin Houston are anywhere in the plans.

 

[BTTA]

The savings are now $2 million less than 24 hours ago since that much of his salary became guaranteed. If they were going to cut him, the way to do it would have been to release him prior to the vesting yesterday but with the June 1 designation, as the Chiefs did with Eric Berry last week.

Not necessarily. They could not have made up their mind yet. There are other factors that have yet to unfold, including a possible renegotiation.

 

[ralmat55]

On multiple occasions, I’ve listed the many ways the Patriots could clear cap space in 2019 by simple restructures of player contracts. As much as $17 million of space could be created by what amounts to an accounting manipulation.

However, I do not think they will or should do this on any large scale. Pushing that much cap room forward just isn’t wise.

The Patriots have had a historical level of success over the last 5 seasons. It’s time to do a little rebuilding as well as build for the 2019 season. Pursuing the acquisition of more name players who only have a couple of years left in their careers is not what’s needed. They already have enough of them.

The Patriots did a very job with the cap space they have filling out their roster with veterans with the potential to get better and compete against the incoming class of rookies. Right now I’d match the Patriots roster (with a punter and kicker) up against any other team in the AFC. And, the Patriots will improve as much or more than any of those teams between now and the start of the season.

It may mean a boring month for us. But, the only way for the Patriots to improve given their salary cap status is also the best way for them to improve competitively. Young players like Cole Croston and Keionta Davis who have been paid and given roster spots in hopes that they develop will need to step up while being challenged by the 6 draft picks they have in the top 101, the other 6 picks, plus a handful of UDFAs who always seem to come in and challenge for a spot on the team.

I’m really excited for this draft. It will be an important one for the present and future of this franchise.

 

[SBLIII]

On multiple occasions, I’ve listed the many ways the Patriots could clear cap space in 2019 by simple restructures of player contracts. As much as $17 million of space could be created by what amounts to an accounting manipulation.

However, I do not think they will or should do this on any large scale. Pushing that much cap room forward just isn’t wise.

The Patriots have had a historical level of success over the last 5 seasons. It’s time to do a little rebuilding as well as build for the 2019 season. Pursuing the acquisition of more name players who only have a couple of years left in their careers is not what’s needed. They already have enough of them.

The Patriots did a very job with the cap space they have filling out their roster with veterans with the potential to get better and compete against the incoming class of rookies. Right now I’d match the Patriots roster (with a punter and kicker) up against any other team in the AFC. And, the Patriots will improve as much or more than any of those teams between now and the start of the season.

It may mean a boring month for us. But, the only way for the Patriots to improve given their salary cap status is also the best way for them to improve competitively. Young players like Cole Croston and Keionta Davis who have been paid and given roster spots in hopes that they develop will need to step up while being challenged by the 6 draft picks they have in the top 101, the other 6 picks, plus a handful of UDFAs who always seem to come in and challenge for a spot on the team.

I’m really excited for this draft. It will be an important one for the present and future of this franchise.

I can only imagine how much young talent we will have between the 2018 rookie class and the combined 11 top 100 picks between the 2019 and 2020 draft. It will be a smooth retool.

 

[long distance]

It MORE than enough.

They have: $9,899,221 NOW ( Does not yet account for the Dorsett, Harris, Brooks, Pennel, and Simon signings) and $96,035,764 next year

Let say:

Brees signed for 25M per. Lets give Brady 28M per and add another 2 years to his current deal.

We can extend him giving him the following deal: 26.5M SB = $21,746,667 / $29,816,667 / $31,816,667 = 28M per (that is a top 3 contract for a 42 year old QB that takes bellow market deals)

Lets move on Extend DMac>

They can extend him giving him the following deal: 4M SB = $11,435,000/ $10,000,000 = 10.7M per avg (that is pretty much the same contract Joyner got on FA and he is 4 years younger, a lit bit more to be honest)

Lets give Gostkowski a better deal than Gano (I don't count Gould as the better deal because it is a one year deal)

We can extend him giving him the following deal 4 years: 9M SB (Gano got 6M) = $3,750,000 / $4,050,000 / $4,350,000 / $5,050,000 = 4.3M per (top 1 contract for a Kicker, better than the Pro bowler that Hawks signed)

Lets give Allen a top 5 P deal:

We can extend him giving him the following deal 4 years: 6M SB = $2,305,000 / $2,600,000 / $3,000,000 / $3,300,000

We have $9,187,298 after all this moves ...

Draft picks will cost less than $2,500,000 if we keep ALL. That will not happen, but we are pretending ....

I think the APY will be lower but lets assume the following deals

$6,687,298

Dorsett APY = 3.3M
Simon APY = 3.1M + 3.7M + Incentives
Harris = 1.8M
Brooks = 1.6M + 2.8M
Pennel = 3M + 4.5M

They have now 86 players signed for 2019 and $1,439,229 left. That cap will increase when they cut players.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2020 they have $39,119,097 (- $2,500,000 to sign all picks more or less (that they won't keep) so $36,619,097.

56 players under contract.

And the following FAs:

Rob Gronkowski - Retired
Julian Edelman - Beasley got 3 years 7.1M per = Give him 7.5M per.
Kyle Van Noy - Give him 10M per (Top 5 contract for a OLB) 4 years = 7.5M/9M/11.25M/12.25M
Jonathan Jones - 4M per 3 years 3.2M /3.8M/5M
Joe Thuney - Give him 10M per (Top 5 contract) 5 years = 5.5M/8.25M/11.25M/12.25M /12.75M
Elandon Roberts - 4M per 3 years 3.2M /3.8M/5M

$13,219,097 Cap space left and 61 players signed ...

Why we need more space? Why it is ''not even close'' ? Do you have any info to support your claim?

kudos. maybe a bit off here and there (+ account for 51 rule) but a very nice job overall

 

[long distance]

Still have other business to take care of like kicker, punter, at least one of Humbar/McClellan, not to mention the idea of freeing up money for the draftees + a few bucks for the season.

The idea of extending a guy who like you said, has not been himself and has been hurt lately is a fairly big gamble. In BB we trust.

I did not suggest this actual trade or called for it. Just wanted to show that if Pats wanted it cap would be no issue.

 

[long distance]

Here a nice little nugget on cap space management some might not be familiar with..

 

[luuked]

Not necessarily. They could not have made up their mind yet. There are other factors that have yet to unfold, including a possible renegotiation.

Deadlines spur action. If the team stands pat when a player gets 2m of his salary guaranteed this is a pretty clear message about whats up.

Might he still be traded ? Sure if someone comes along with a trade offer that BB considers value. But if there was any doubt about their plans with HT then the 2m guarantee would have been something that made them prioritize his situation over others. Which they did not.

 

[Ring 6]

The team often moves a star the year before his performance diminishes. If anything, we are a year late on Hightower.

That’s really not true, not with “stars”. Do you have any examples?

 

[Ring 6]

It MORE than enough.

They have: $9,899,221 NOW ( Does not yet account for the Dorsett, Harris, Brooks, Pennel, and Simon signings) and $96,035,764 next year

Let say:

Brees signed for 25M per. Lets give Brady 28M per and add another 2 years to his current deal.

We can extend him giving him the following deal: 26.5M SB = $21,746,667 / $29,816,667 / $31,816,667 = 28M per (that is a top 3 contract for a 42 year old QB that takes bellow market deals)

Lets move on Extend DMac>

They can extend him giving him the following deal: 4M SB = $11,435,000/ $10,000,000 = 10.7M per avg (that is pretty much the same contract Joyner got on FA and he is 4 years younger, a lit bit more to be honest)

Lets give Gostkowski a better deal than Gano (I don't count Gould as the better deal because it is a one year deal)

We can extend him giving him the following deal 4 years: 9M SB (Gano got 6M) = $3,750,000 / $4,050,000 / $4,350,000 / $5,050,000 = 4.3M per (top 1 contract for a Kicker, better than the Pro bowler that Hawks signed)

Lets give Allen a top 5 P deal:

We can extend him giving him the following deal 4 years: 6M SB = $2,305,000 / $2,600,000 / $3,000,000 / $3,300,000

We have $9,187,298 after all this moves ...

Draft picks will cost less than $2,500,000 if we keep ALL. That will not happen, but we are pretending ....

I think the APY will be lower but lets assume the following deals

$6,687,298

Dorsett APY = 3.3M
Simon APY = 3.1M + 3.7M + Incentives
Harris = 1.8M
Brooks = 1.6M + 2.8M
Pennel = 3M + 4.5M

They have now 86 players signed for 2019 and $1,439,229 left. That cap will increase when they cut players.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With 1.4 mill we need to pay the ps (which is more than that) the 52nd and 53rd and have money to cover players that go on IR, and to acquire players during he season.

In 2020 they have $39,119,097 (- $2,500,000 to sign all picks more or less (that they won't keep) so $36,619,097.

56 players under contract.

And the following FAs:

Rob Gronkowski - Retired
Julian Edelman - Beasley got 3 years 7.1M per = Give him 7.5M per.
Kyle Van Noy - Give him 10M per (Top 5 contract for a OLB) 4 years = 7.5M/9M/11.25M/12.25M
Jonathan Jones - 4M per 3 years 3.2M /3.8M/5M
Joe Thuney - Give him 10M per (Top 5 contract) 5 years = 5.5M/8.25M/11.25M/12.25M /12.75M
Elandon Roberts - 4M per 3 years 3.2M /3.8M/5M

$13,219,097 Cap space left and 61 players signed ...

Why we need more space? Why it is ''not even close'' ? Do you have any info to support your claim?

We also still need a OT3 a DE3 a WR2 (maybe more) a DT2.
Some of that could be augmented by the draft but that’s a lot to count on.

 

[ralmat55]

Great Write up! Like Miguel never left ]

Thanks for the compliment as Miguel is the best. But, Miguel would not have made the mistake I made in calculating my $4 million under cap figure guesstimate.

The list of signees I was working from didn’t include Philip Dorsett, and his impact is not accounted for in the “ overthecap” figure. I’m going to guess $ 3 million plus NLTBE incentives which would leave the Patriots roughly $1.5 million under.

They’re going to have to throw some cap forward. My preference would be Gilmore because he’s the one most likely to be a productive player when his contract ends. Mason would be the other most likely, but I think it runs afoul of Section 8, so it can’t be done until after the anniversary of the extension.

 

[Zuma]

 

[Mack Herron]

Will need to free some space. There was talk of a Brady extension a few weeks ago, but I haven't heard anything recently.

 

[luuked]

Will need to free some space. There was talk of a Brady extension a few weeks ago, but I haven't heard anything recently.

Unless we are about to trade for someone or sign a bigger FA item there is no rush to clear space. The next bigger scheduled hit to cap will be about ~2.5m whenever we sign our draft class and this is still months away.

Most of the camp bodies will be irrelevant in terms of the rule of 51. It doesn't mean that a restructure will not happen at some point soon but that there is no rush unless a reason comes up.

 

[Family]

Unless we are about to trade for someone or sign a bigger FA item there is no rush to clear space. The next bigger scheduled hit to cap will be about ~2.5m whenever we sign our draft class and this is still months away.

Most of the camp bodies will be irrelevant in terms of the rule of 51. It doesn't mean that a restructure will not happen at some point soon but that there is no rush unless a reason comes up.

In addition what Gronk is going to do is up in the air.

The next moves are likely accounting based, nothing more. So why do anything until you have to?

 

[long distance]

Will need to free some space. There was talk of a Brady extension a few weeks ago, but I haven't heard anything recently.

For all we know this covers all of the signings so far and also includes some touches to existing contract/s. We'll just have to wait for specifics before we press next panic/no panic buttons..

 

[SBLIII]

For all we know this covers all of the signings so far and also includes some touches to existing contract/s. We'll just have to wait for specifics before we press next panic/no panic buttons..

If it covers all signings it's a lot better than anticipated actually.

 

[long distance]

If it covers all signings it's a lot better than anticipated actually.

Depending by who. Some are banging the 70% apy hit, 51 rule drum all the time..

 

[supafly]

I did not suggest this actual trade or called for it. Just wanted to show that if Pats wanted it cap would be no issue.

Yes, I didn’t really mean to suggest otherwise in terms of proposing the deal. For the record, I’d be excited as hell for a big trade like that. I'm just a bit skeptical in terms of it actually happening, and I simply don’t believe that they’re going to kick as much money down the road as has been suggested.

Yes, they have about 95m in cap space for next year, but there are only 28 guys under contract (!), and about 1/4 of that total is likely going to Brady. If the argument is that they could easily fit AJ Green under the cap this year, then I respectfully disagree. If it’s that they’d sign him and then immediately extend him to lower the 2019 hit, that would definitely make more sense, although it’s still a bit of a gamble since he’s been a bit hurt and “off” lately. Of course, Belichick gets paid well to make these decisions, so I’m happily going to back whatever he chooses to do.