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2019 Mock Drafts

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by reamer, May 11, 2018.

  1. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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  2. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Right now IDK if this team has 7 spots to fill. We also need to keep in mind that likely at least 1 UDFA will make the club. I wouldn't be against trading up.

    32: Jeffrey Simmons - DT - You just can't pass up on talent like this if he falls to you.
    Other options: Dre'Mont Jones -DT, Jerry Tillery DT

    I think ideally they are better off going defense this pick. I just think they're unlikely to get this kind of value defensively again and Bennett is a band aid solution t and the value for Offense is better later.

    56: Jace Sternberger - TE - One of the few safe TE options. Easily projects to start.
    Other options: Andy Isabella – WR, Hakeem Butler - WR(unlikely to be there).

    Unless something crazy happens you need to start to help your offense. While there is good value for WR here I just don't trust the TE depth.

    64: Andy Isabella - WR - Solves a lot of issues inside and outside.
    Other Options: Emanuel Hall - WR, Zach Allen – DE, Jaylon Ferguson – DE

    One of the most undervalued players in this draft just cause he can give you the flexibility to go outside or inside WR later. Also his talent is arguably first round level. With the depth at WR they could still choose to wait and pick D. This class is deep with solid starters. Worth noting. While I like Hall I don't think the team should draft both Hall and Isabella. You go big and strong on the other WR.

    73: Zach Allen - DE - More defensive line help be nice.
    Other options: Will Grier - QB, Case Winovich - DE, Anthony Nelson – DE.

    I just like this spot to help your D or get a QB. The DL doesn't have a lot of long term options right now.

    97: JJ Arcega-Whiteside – WR - Time to get your other WR.
    Other options: Emanuel Hall - WR, K'Neal Harry - WR, Riley Ridley - WR

    This pick is all about value. A good option at WR will be here. Pick whoever it is and make it compliment your first WR pick.

    101: Amani Hooker - SS - Just pick a safety here.

    A safety is going to fall to the end of the 3rd who shouldn't. Don't worry about scheme just pick the best one that does.

    134: Kahale Warring - TE - I just love this pick.

    This guy isn't getting much buzz and I don't know why. I think he looks like a first round talent. Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see how
     
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  3. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thank GOD you aren't running the Pats draft. It is SO offensive sided its....offensive.

    We have spent 20 years watching the Pats get value at the WR position WITHOUT committing huge draft capital at the position or huge money in FA. The Pats have had a top offense since around 2003 but utilizing good but not elite receivers. Yet for some f#cking reason every f#cking year all these normally intelligent Pats fans, just want to draft WR after WR after WR.

    Now I LOVE Chris Lindstrom as a player. Hell I was his father's HS coach. You make a good case for him, but you can make the same case for someone just like him NEXT year when there might actually be a need. Swing tackle IS a real need, but one that could be filled internally, with a later pick, or in FA.

    We cannot leave the 2nd round without at least ONE potential defensive starter, particularly a DT/DE. Just can't happen. Granted I really hope we exit the 2nd day with at least one TE and WR, but we can survive next season without spending most of our draft capital (2 2nd day picks with your scenario) for a redundant position...this year.

    And as far as WR goes, NEVER in the first round.....NEVER. Again, I'd love Brown or someone like him. But given the impact he'd have on the team vs the value of the pick; there isn't any value there for ANY WR , because you can get similar value throughout the draft. '

    If the TE that they want is there take him. Hockenson dropped into the 20's I be OK to move up for him. But TE is a MUCH more impactful position that TE. I'd rather draft an OLman in the first that a WR

    .....and just like that the rant is over. ;)
     
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ken, I know it feels like the Patriots minimize the draft capital they spend on WRs compared to other teams, but the facts don't really support that. Here's a quick tally of the premium picks spent on WR by all the teams in the AFCE in the period you specified, since 2003:

    upload_2019-4-18_21-3-16.png
     

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  5. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    1. I had a defensive player in the first two rounds.
    2. Your DL defensive starter. Who exactly do they start ahead of? Michael Bennett? Pennel? Lawrence Guy?
    3. My mock is based upon the very real pre-draft activity of the Patriots. They have had ZERO defensive players predicted to go around pick 32 in for a visit. On the other hand, they’ve had almost every WR and almost every OL in that range in for a visit.
    4. You say we don’t need a WR in the first round. Well why do we need a DL? Our best pass rusher of our recent SB run was a 4th rounder. The three first rounders we had on the DL (Clayborn, Brown, Shelton) were all released/not re-signed so hardly that essential to the team.
    5. Dexter Lawrence has been my favourite pick for that 32 pick since I started researching this draft. Zach Allen is one of my favourite defensive linemen. But, I’m following the trail of crumbs being set by this teams pre-draft activity.
    6. I literally said this is what I thought the Pats would do. Not what I would do.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2019
  6. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Pro Bowl Player

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    2nd to last mock draft.

    32. DT Christian Wilkins Clemson.
    56. WR Hakeem Butler
    64. TE Jace Sternberger
    73. FS Darnel Savage Maryland
    97. SS Amani Hooker Iowa
    101. WR Miles Boykin Notre Dame
    134. OT Kaleb McGary Washington
    205. DE Jonathan Ledbetter Georgia
    239. WR James Gardner Miami (Ohio)
    243. G Damien Prince Maryland
    246. LB Tre Lamar Clemson
    252. QB Jake Browning Washington

    One can dream.
     
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  7. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ....and just who was that #1 WR pick?

    But I never said they shouldn't use a second and take a shot at someone, ie Bethel Johnson. But I was reacting to the idea of drafting one in the first. In fact if they end the day with Isabella and Baker somewhere between the 2nd and 4th I'd be thrilled. But that's the fan in me. The coach in me would rather draft Isabella in the 3rd and sign an UDFA like Jesper Horsted out of Princeton - 6'3 225 who ran a 4.5 40 and see what you can get.

    That's the thing about WR's there are so damned many of them. It's the kind of position where you can miss on a guy like Bethel, and find guys like Edelman Welker, Hogan, Amendola , ABrown in the later rounds or UDFA

    Another thing to remember. IIRC no rookie WR has ever come in here and had over 500 receiving yds. I think the 2 best were Branch and Mitchell who had around 450. That's probably why BB seems to fail with draft picks and does so much better with everyone else's retreads LIKE all the guys I mentioned (except Brown of course)
     
  8. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    64? Really?
    A starter on the DL these days is anyone who plays around 50% of the snaps. I can see Tillery, Lawerence, Wilkins etc doing that
    Like pre-draft visits are a great indicator of where the Pats are going. Last year only Berrios, Dawson and Sam had visits and only Dawson was a 2nd day pick.
    Because we need rush help now! not 2 years from now. Flowers wasn't an overnight success. Bad example. The last 2 first round picks to have an immediate impact were Hightower and Jones - 2 first rounders.
    My favorite too, but I'm thinking you are following a false trail. JMHO
    In that case I missed it, sorry.
     
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  9. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Pittsburgh’s m.o. for drafting wide receivers seems to be above average production in college.

    Maybe bb can steal a page from their book!
     
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  10. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    1. Last I looked, 64 is in the first 2 rounds.
    2. I’m not as big a fan of Tillery as some. Lawrence I love but I’ve discussed that as for Ferrell and Wilkins, if you look at my trade up thread, those were two I said I’d be prepared to trade up for.
    3. Actually they can be a good indicator of the positions the Pats are looking at. Take last year for example. They might not have had Wynn and Michel in for a visit, but they did have first round OL and RB in.
    4. Who is the rush help we’d get at 32? Lawrence isn’t a pass rusher, Ferrell and Wilkins will be long gone which leaves Tillery. I’m luke warm on him.
    5. No problem.
    6. You’ll be pleased to know that the latest idea I’m working on is Miles Boykin (64) and Andy Isabella (73). Still offense heavy though I’m afraid. With the need at WR and TE and the interest shown in RTs, I just think this will be a majority offense draft on the first two days. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s where the breadcrumbs lead.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 19, 2019

  11. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Lovely mock but McGary at 134? That is a dream. He’s a top 50 pick...at worst.
     
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  12. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Pro Bowl Player

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    Yeah, its that stupid mock simulator. I wont use it for my final mock.

    However, I don’t see him going in the first 3 rounds because of medical issues and him being a RT to guard conversion.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 19, 2019
  13. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    There is the heart thing, but fwiw, Gil Brandt has him at 36 on his board and Bob McGinn has him as the 3rd rated OT (Jonah as an interior lineman)
     
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  14. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ah, glad you asked! It was Brandin Cooks, just two years ago. And that points to a reason it seems like they don't spend draft capital on WRs: because we run our mind back over drafted players, forgetting trades of premium picks for veterans. The only 1st & 2nd-round picks they've ever traded for players were for receivers, which hardly sounds like de-prioritizing the position.

    It's obviously fine to argue against drafting 1st-round WRs. I think there's a solid case to be made for that, because WR is a particularly hard position to project from college to the NFL. But the suggestion that the Patriots have deliberately withheld resources from the position, in the draft or free agency, just isn't borne out. They've spent--or attempted to spend--a normal amount of resources, but often come up empty.
     
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  15. SBLIII

    SBLIII 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Objectively speaking the 4 most positions to win football games are QB, LT, CB and edge.

    QB is settled. LT is not but we expect Wynn to take over. CB is settled for now. Edge is usually where the pressure comes from. But if a DT can provide it as well he gives you the same value.

    So just based on value and team needs we should either take Tillery or Clelin Ferrell.

    However our WR situation is much more dire than normal. Meaning a step up from whoever our 2nd/3rd WR is right now to AJ Brown can be much more significant than it usually is increasing the value of a WR pick.
     
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  16. sircole

    sircole On the Game Day Roster

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    I agree with you.

    They seem to place a high value on actual past production along with athleticism.

    The Steelers most successful receivers drafted 4th round or higher, plus Antonio Brown (6th), since 2010 have multiple seasons of 900+ yards while in college.

    steelers_wr_draft_receiving_yds.png

    Pittsburgh Steelers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

    Emmanuel Sanders College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Antonio Brown College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Markus Wheaton College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Martavis Bryant College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Sammie Coates College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    JuJu Smith-Schuster College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    James Washington College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

    While none of our drafted 4th round or higher WRs since 2010 did, even though Josh Boyce was close and Malcolm Mitchell showed promise that was derailed by injuries.

    patriots_receiving_yds.png

    New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

    Taylor Price College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Aaron Dobson College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Josh Boyce College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
    Malcolm Mitchell College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

    It is interesting that Deion Branch showed similar high production and he was one of our best WR draft picks.

    Deion Branch College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
     
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    Last edited: Apr 20, 2019
  17. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Decent chance wr’s 4-7 are as good as wr’s 1-3. Metcalf , AJ Brown and Marquise aren’t sure things.

    I’m leaning TE, Edge and then double up on WR.
     
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  18. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like the thinking, but the concrete question of #32 is still foggy to me. I'd leap at Ferrell, but he's off the board by pick 20 in almost every mock. As for Tillery, I hesitate to commit a 1st to a player with question marks on work ethic and character. The three outcomes that seem most likely to me:

    1. Go OT, likely Risner, to secure that shaky position and to get the extra 5th year at highly paid position.
    2. Go WR, because the player quality and team need should line up well there.
    3. Go Edge and to heck with "value," because if you don't think the players you feel good about will still be there at #56, now is the time.
    (I'm purposely ignoring obvious outcome 4, TE Irv Smith.)
     
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  19. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Re 3. Which EDGE though? Zach Allen, Chase Winovich, Jaylon Ferguson, LJ Collier seems to be the only contenders at 32. Were those the names you were thinking?
     
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  20. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That is the problem, isn't it? Question marks about all of them, but I think Zach Allen has the widest array of positives for the Patriots to work with.
     
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