2017 Patriots Defense

[TBR]

They weren't really "the best" defense last year either.

You could argue that, but I think it's fair to say they were top 5 last year. Regardless of the quality of QBs they faced, leading the league in scoring defense is worth being in the top 5.

 

[jbb9s]

They’ve got three “pro bowlers” in the secondary who need to get it together.

2016 NFL Pro Bowlers | Pro-Football-Reference.com

off topic - literally the probowl team is more than 100 people. there are 11 QBs alone ----there are only 32 starters! That is more than 1/3rd!

 

[rads2005]

Yeah, Collins really showed how great he is coverage when he couldnt stay with Lynch in the SB or with Owen Daniels a year later in the AFCCG.

how many plays was that vs the body of his work as a Patriot?

 

[luuked]

how many plays was that vs the body of his work as a Patriot?

My point is that we regularly had issues with coverage of RBs and TEs even when Collins was on the team. He was pretty versatile and borderline great against other things when he wasn't off doing his own thing.

 

[Biffins]

On a positive note, I don't think Patricia will be offered interviews for Head Coach jobs this offseason after this atrocious defense............. So we can keep the staff together again since luckily Josh doesn't want to move his family anymore either (Josh turned down SF 49ers HC job earlier this year)

 

[PScottman]

we are lacking impact players on the D-line and LBs

While defining "impact" is so broad a term I won't even bother to try, I will say it's pretty difficult to judge any PORTION of the defense when the breakdowns are evident across the entirety of it.

RBs getting four or five steps away from coverage, blown coverages in the secondary, poor gap discipline, poor tackling and attack angles - all of these things have manifested thus far and often at critical junctures.

That said, there has been actual improvement as well. These mostly communicative and COACHABLE issues have declined from week one. That's where the hopeful prognosis comes in. Can people truthfully say there is no evidence of player ability to do these things? (okay...maybe Jordan Richards....dude is just sloooooooooow)

Come mid-October if these breakdowns still occur frequently, across an entire game like they have then I'll join the negative camp for sure as then the evidence will likely start to point toward in inability to accept and implement these coachable and fixable breakdowns.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Does Bowman have anything left? I would take him next to Hightower. Haven’t seen him play in a while but I know he’s still on SF

 

[Kontradiction]

My point is that we regularly had issues with coverage of RBs and TEs even when Collins was on the team. He was pretty versatile and borderline great against other things when he wasn't off doing his own thing.

Collins' problem became freelancing, but that was a 2016 issue. His presence alone was the reason why the team no longer got murdered by TEs, slants, and crossing routes out of the slot in 2013 after the 2011 and 2012 seasons. I honestly believe the '12 AFCCG loss to the Ravens where they exploited that hole and lack of athleticism over the middle was why he was drafted. In 2016, he began to do his own thing and operate outside of what Belichick and Patricia wanted. He was gone after that because all the speed and athleticism in the world doesn't help you or the team when you're not doing your job.

 

[mgteich]

To be fair we have faced some good offensive teams. I did not expect HOU to have that much success if Im being totally honest. I think we will come back to the middle but so far this unit isnt up to the level of last years.

Our strategy for stopping teams thus far seems to be hope their QB is inaccurate.

When the worst defense faces average offenses, the average offense look like "good offensive teams".

 

[mgteich]

Does Bowman have anything left? I would take him next to Hightower. Haven’t seen him play in a while but I know he’s still on SF

Belichick has no problem with having Hightower and Van Noy in the middle.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Can someone who has access to the Boston Sports Journal summarize Bedard’s article on how the pats can turn their defense around post a summary?

Bedard's Breakdown: Is the Patriots' defense really this bad, and is there hope?

 

[Biffins]

Can anyone who has access to Bedard’s article in the Boston Sports Journal on how the pats can turn their defense around post a summary of what he said?

Bedard's Breakdown: Is the Patriots' defense really this bad, and is there hope?

Or you can subscribe since it's behind a paywall and we don't want to post protected content.

 

[Love The Drake]

J

On a positive note, I don't think Patricia will be offered interviews for Head Coach jobs this offseason after this atrocious defense............. So we can keep the staff together again since luckily Josh doesn't want to move his family anymore either (Josh turned down SF 49ers HC job earlier this year)

Keep a eye on that Giants job he wouldnt have to move possibly and a storied franchise with some good pieces.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Or you can subscribe since it's behind a paywall and we don't want to post protected content.

That’s why i am asking for a summary

 

[captain stone]

Belichick has no problem with having Hightower and Van Noy in the middle.

I don't know if Van Noy is a better fit inside or outside. I've always thought of him as a backup-material talent, 3-4 OLB, and not particularly well-suited for the current look of this defense. IOW, a (much?) less effective Akeem Ayers.

Van Noy also strikes me as someone who thinks he's better than he truly is, and will be unwilling to do all - some, even perhaps much, but not all - of the hard work necessary to reach whatever ceiling he has.

 

[supafly]

When the worst defense faces average offenses, the average offense look like "good offensive teams".

As long as we see some progress being made in the next few games, I think many of us will buy into the extended preseason theory.

That said, if we're judging by points allowed, which is usually the go-to measure of success in any defense, it should be noted that no other team in the Bill Belichick era has ever given up this many points through 3 weeks (95), so there is certainly reason for concern.

 

[luuked]

As long as we see some progress being made in the next few games, I think many of us will buy into the extended preseason theory.

That said, if we're judging by points allowed, which is usually the go-to measure of success in any defense, it should be noted that no other team in the Bill Belichick era has ever given up this many points through 3 weeks (95), so there is certainly reason for concern.

Using cumulative (or even normalized) statistics 3 weeks into the season is just so pointless. What if we had the Bengals, Browns, Jets and the Colts as opponents at the start ? The specific lineup would completely skew into the other direction with a pretty good chance to be #1 in points against and points scored.

Once 8-10 games are played there usually is a better (but still far from ideal) sample size of different kind of teams in the overall pool and you have a better picture of where a team stands. But this goes back to dumbing down one of the most complex sports into single metrics.

What is frustrating is that we have the same conversation every year and some people (not you @supafly) just never get it.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Because I never said "preseason play", I said "preseason record". These are not synonymous and barely even comparable.

I'm glad you mentioned this example because it illustrates my point perfectly. NE's offensive line struggling in the preseason is not unusual, it's virtually a rite of passage. You are taking a perfectly normal occurence and attributing post hoc significance to it based on events that followed.... which makes it a great representative of your entire post.

You must not have read the link I provided that demonstrated through collected data that the "preseason record" does have a statistically significant relationship to how teams do. For example, those who perform at 2-2 actually tend to do better in the regular season than any other record.

What you're stating is that the Patriots offensive line playing poorly is to be celebrated because it has happened before and is a "rite of passage." That is insane. We're putting Brady in danger by not having the pieces in place throughout the preseason and into the early weeks of the season. Just because Brady hasn't gone down since 2008 doesn't mean we just throw our hands in the air with the line the opening weeks until it's all good by mid-season.

Also, taking data and extrapolating from it is a pretty normal occurrence in sports, finance, box office figures, etc. If the Patriots line played poorly in the preseason, it would logically follow that they will struggle early in the regular season. I understand the concept of a post hoc logical fallacy, but this poor line and defensive play appears to extend directly from the preseason to the regular season. This isn't a classical post hoc example where I prayed for rain, it rained, so thus prayer made it rain. It is possible that their poor play in the regular season happened for reasons unrelated to their preseason play, but does that really seem likely? There were no major injuries or distractions.

It seems clear their struggles in the preseason this year carried over into the regular season. Your argument is "meh, they struggled before in other seasons, so they can struggle again this year and be golden." Maybe that's true, maybe it isn't. But while they likely will improve across the year if we take prior seasons with Scar, this poor line play still may cost them a game or two by week 8 and could result in an injury to Brady. Fingers crossed that doesn't happen.

Honestly, I'm struggling to understand why you are fighting so hard to dismiss the fact the Patriots poor play on the line (and defense) this preseason snowballed into the Chiefs game. Moreover, I'm not exactly sure why you tried to "ah hah!" me with the "preseason record" versus "preseason play" argument when I provided evidence that preseason records do have statistical significance. I get the feeling you just didn't bother to read my evidence because it was easier to keep attacking than address my points. I pointed out their 1-3 record in my initial post because it demonstrated a weaker effort than usual on the surface that also happened to be backed up by poor play by the starters in most games. If they went 0-4 resting their starters, I certainly wouldn't be on here being chicken little. But they did worse than usual while also playing most of the starters. Long story short: they didn't do well on paper or with the eye test.

I usually don't bother to dedicate such energy to responding to aggressive posts, but you seemed certain logic is on your side despite statistical evidence to the contrary. Overall I'm not really clear about what you're trying to debunk or why you are resisting facts.

 

[Bcc66duece]

That’s why i am asking for a summary

Basically said a big part of it has been the coaches not putting the players in the best situation to succeed, not playing to our players strengths, not using man coverage. Also mentioned some of our better players not playing to their usual standards.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, we have the same discussion each year. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't be concerned about the defense giving up more points through 3 games than any other team since Belichick came here.

What is frustrating is that we have the same conversation every year and some people (not you @supafly) just never get it.