2014 Roster - Offseason needs

[mayoclinic]

I don't think they're opposing statements at all. As I've said, I believe TE is the biggest priority and the best way to service that priority is to draft the closest to a sure thing as possible and certainly Ebron and ASJ (character allowing) are that for me. Sure later round players might have better value but they come with risk too. Trey Millard? He isn't a very good blocker and plays for a team from which we've never drafted.Grimble, Rodgers et al do have talent and I've been higher on Rodgers than most but if you were tasked only with the job of finding a starting TE that could push 1,000 yards receiving, which of the top 3 would you replace with Rodgers? Rodgers might be better value than Amaro but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a better player.

For me, as I said, TE is the #1 need and it isn't even close, and I'll stick by that. And to that end, I want to fulfill that need with the best player possible. I've also said that I want to double dip at the position so your later round players aren't out of the running anyway.

I never said they were opposing statements at all, just different. And you're certainly entitled to your opinion, I wasn't trying to invalidate it all. My apologies if you took it that way. For me, while I wouldn't be upset about Ebron (who I think will be long gone) or ASJ in the 1st, I'm not convinced that would have the most short or long-term impact on the team compared to some other options, depending on who is available, of course. But I wouldn't complain at all if that's the way the cards fall.

 

[manxman2601]

I never said they were opposing statements at all, just different. And you're certainly entitled to your opinion, I wasn't trying to invalidate it all. My apologies if you took it that way. For me, while I wouldn't be upset about Ebron (who I think will be long gone) or ASJ in the 1st, I'm not convinced that would have the most short or long-term impact on the team compared to some other options, depending on who is available, of course. But I wouldn't complain at all if that's the way the cards fall.

I certainly didn't take your comment as an invalidation at all, just a difference of opinion which I welcome.

My argument boils down to this. Assuming re-signings, this team is a team that has got us one step from the SB. Assuming we don't have the same levels of injuries, next years team is likely to be better than this years. If forced to, I am comfortable taking this years team into next year save at the TE position which is by far our weakest and this is why I made the observation I did.

A thought experiment for you and any one else:

Because of a rule violation the team is fined all it's draft picks save the first rounder. Because of this, BB chooses to re-sign all the players due to leave and is able to do so. That means you are only allowed to add one player to this roster. do you target a position or do you just take BPA? For me it's pretty clear. It's TE which is why I made the point I did about it's importance.

 

[mayoclinic]

A thought experiment for you and any one else:

Because of a rule violation the team is fined all it's draft picks save the first rounder. Because of this, BB chooses to re-sign all the players due to leave and is able to do so. That means you are only allowed to add one player to this roster. do you target a position or do you just take BPA? For me it's pretty clear. It's TE which is why I made the point I did about it's importance.

Fun as that might be, it's not reality, and just isn't applicable. We won't re-sign everyone, and we will have multiple picks to add players.

Equally irrelevant thought experiment: if your scenario existed and Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgwater were both available, would you still take the TE? It's equally irrelevant as your scenario, since both scenarios will never happen.

 

[manxman2601]

Fun as that might be, it's not reality, and just isn't applicable. We won't re-sign everyone, and we will have multiple picks to add players.

Equally irrelevant thought experiment: if your scenario existed and Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgwater were both available, would you still take the TE? It's equally irrelevant as your scenario, since both scenarios will never happen.

The point of thought experiments is not to address reality (that's why they're thought experiments only). It's a way of focusing one's thoughts as your example did. And in answer to yours, yes on Clowney and no on Bridgewater. I'd be prepared to sacrifice a weakness at TE to get an elite pass rusher like Clowney.

 

[Leemo]

A thought experiment for you and any one else:

Because of a rule violation the team is fined all it's draft picks save the first rounder. Because of this, BB chooses to re-sign all the players due to leave and is able to do so. That means you are only allowed to add one player to this roster. do you target a position or do you just take BPA? For me it's pretty clear. It's TE which is why I made the point I did about it's importance.

Agreed 100%. But if the top 3 TE's are gone when we come to pick and we can get a play maker in one of the next positions of need, then we must do so

 

[manxman2601]

Agreed 100%. But if the top 3 TE's are gone when we come to pick and we can get a play maker in one of the next positions of need, then we must do so

This I agree with. I'm certainly not suggesting reaching for a TE, nor ignoring character. If ASJ's character is not a fit then they shouldn't draft him just because we need a player at that position.

 

[mayoclinic]

The point of thought experiments is not to address reality (that's why they're thought experiments only). It's a way of focusing one's thoughts as your example did. And in answer to yours, yes on Clowney and no on Bridgewater. I'd be prepared to sacrifice a weakness at TE to get an elite pass rusher like Clowney.

I think Murphy will be a better pro than Clowney. Works for me. I take Murphy over Ebron in your original thought experiment. Obviously, it all depends on how you have players rated.

 

[manxman2601]

I think Murphy will be a better pro than Clowney. Works for me. I take Murphy over Ebron in your original thought experiment. Obviously, it all depends on how you have players rated.

Well I think we are clearly at very different points at how we evaluate players then which is fair enough.

 

[mayoclinic]

Well I think we are clearly at very different points at how we evaluate players then which is fair enough.

Fair enough.

For me, it's fairly simple:

1. I don't think ASJ is worth a first round pick. I'm concerned about his work ethic and off-field issues. Plus, I like Troy Niklas more, and he will probably be available later. He's more raw, but I think he has the work ethic, and I like his ceiling. I would trade up in the 2nd for Niklas if necessary.

2. I don't think Jace Amaro is worth a first round pick. I think he's over-rated. Good player, but he's a product of his system. I think Richard Rodgers will be just as good a pro, for a fraction of the price.

3. I think Eric Ebron is worth every penny of a first round pick. Very rare prospect. If he's available and that's the direction we go in, I have no qualms whatsoever with the pick.

 

[manxman2601]

Fair enough.

For me, it's fairly simple:

1. I don't think ASJ is worth a first round pick. I'm concerned about his work ethic and off-field issues. Plus, I like Troy Niklas more, and he will probably be available later. He's more raw, but I think he has the work ethic, and I like his ceiling. I would trade up in the 2nd for Niklas if necessary.

2. I don't think Jace Amaro is worth a first round pick. I think he's over-rated. Good player, but he's a product of his system. I think Richard Rodgers will be just as good a pro, for a fraction of the price.

3. I think Eric Ebron is worth every penny of a first round pick. Very rare prospect. If he's available and that's the direction we go in, I have no qualms whatsoever with the pick.

Let's just say we are having a day of respectful disagreement.

 

[stelfans]

Fair enough.

For me, it's fairly simple:

1. I don't think ASJ is worth a first round pick. I'm concerned about his work ethic and off-field issues. Plus, I like Troy Niklas more, and he will probably be available later. He's more raw, but I think he has the work ethic, and I like his ceiling. I would trade up in the 2nd for Niklas if necessary.

2. I don't think Jace Amaro is worth a first round pick. I think he's over-rated. Good player, but he's a product of his system. I think Richard Rodgers will be just as good a pro, for a fraction of the price.

3. I think Eric Ebron is worth every penny of a first round pick. Very rare prospect. If he's available and that's the direction we go in, I have no qualms whatsoever with the pick.

I agree with 2 and 3. But where are you getting this work ethic issues with ASJ?

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree with 2 and 3. But where are you getting this work ethic issues with ASJ?

Mostly my impression of this year, and how he didn't improve from his sophomore year and seemed to be coasting. It's hard to tell, because Washington didn't really feature him. But I don't get the sense of someone who is really dedicated to improving, instead of coasting on talent.

FWIW, Drew Boylhart of the Huddle Report has the same view, and rated ASJ a 4th round value based on that. My view isn't really based on Boylhart's, but on my own impression.

 

[stelfans]

Mostly my impression of this year, and how he didn't improve from his sophomore year and seemed to be coasting. It's hard to tell, because Washington didn't really feature him. But I don't get the sense of someone who is really dedicated to improving, instead of coasting on talent.

FWIW, Drew Boylhart of the Huddle Report has the same view, and rated ASJ a 4th round value based on that. My view isn't really based on Boylhart's, but on my own impression.

Meh, all i've seen was a guy improving on his blocking skills and a qb who for some odd reason didnt want to throw much to him. And despite that he made plays.

He went on to say that nothing was wrong and the fact he wasnt featured much was strategic and he was doing what he had to do to help the team.

Like you said its hard from the outside and clearly something was going on. I heard he had some disagreement with the qb or wtv.

 

[captain stone]

Pretty solid list. I agree with almost everything on it. Some thoughts:

- This is a good draft to find guard/tackle prospects - guys who can play inside or out. David Yankey, Zach Martin, Joel Bitonio, Billy Turner, Cameron Fleming and Brandon Linder all are guys who can probably play inside or out. Even Xavier Sua'Filo played LT for USC.

- I don't see SS to replace Gregory as a priority. In fact, I think the Pats may give Gregory an extension that lowers his 2014 cap hit. He just turned 31, and all of the players give him a ton of credit for his football smarts and savvy. It's a bit like where Rob Ninkovich a few years ago. I see adding a DB - ideally someone who can play both CB and S - as an area to address, but I'm not sure that replacing Gregory is in the cards, or necessary for that matter. Continuity of the secondary is important, too.

- What young veteran UFA WR do you have in mind? There's not a ton of talent out there, and WRs tend to be overpriced on the FA market. Eric Decker probably won't get out of Denver, and if he does it will be because he wants to be paid like a #1 WR. Kenny Britt? In this deep a draft, adding a day 3 WR could be more cost-effective than adding a young FA.

- Sapoaga hasn't done much for us and has been a healthy scratch. I don't see re-signing him as in the cards, regardless of his willingness to restructure. Tommy Kelly, OTOH, played very well for us and spoke openly about how much he enjoyed the "Patriot experience" before getting hurt. I think it's more likely that he's the one who is brought back with a salary reduction. Vellano has given tremendous effort, but he's limited, and I agree that he is upgradeable.

But overall, very solid list.

My opinion of Gregory is one as a 3rd Safety, neither of whose coverage nor tackling ability
reflects his current salary. Although a lumber-laying SS in the Rodney Harrison mold is
becoming - thanks to Goodell - the defense's version of the FB, I still believe that there's
room for someone 6'2"/215 with sufficient athletic ability to both cover TEs downfield and
tackle RBs upfield. The obvious question is: where is that someone - in the draft (ahead of
other, perhaps greater needs), or via free agency (more expensive, e.g. Donte Whitner)?

I'm giving our rookie WRs one more year to prove that they're better than I fear they are;
therefore I'd rather sign a proven young vet WR during free agency (as well as re-signing
Minitron) such as Golden Tate (trained in this system by Charlie Weis at ND), Eric Decker,
Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Emmanuel
Sanders, and - dare I dream - Anquan Boldin, who while not young of course would bring
immeasurable toughness & clutchness to the position. I would not address WR in the draft
until the 3rd day.

I'm not a Tommy Kelly fan, but if you would rather substitute him at DT instead of Soap -
for the same reduced to vet minimum + salary, then I can live with that.

 

[ATippett56]

I'm giving our rookie WRs one more year to prove that they're better than I fear they are;
therefore I'd rather sign a proven young vet WR during free agency (as well as re-signing
Minitron) such as Golden Tate (trained in this system by Charlie Weis at ND), Eric Decker,
Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders, Jacoby Jones, James Jones, Emmanuel
Sanders, and - dare I dream - Anquan Boldin, who while not young of course would bring
immeasurable toughness & clutchness to the position. I would not address WR in the draft
until the 3rd day.

I'm not a Tommy Kelly fan, but if you would rather substitute him at DT instead of Soap -
for the same reduced to vet minimum + salary, then I can live with that.

You are not taking into account the realities of the salary cap with regard to spending even more money in unrestricted free agency, especially at the wide receiver position.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2014 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

According to my figures the Patriots' 2014 current commitment is for $114,624,410 with 58 players. I have the Patriots' 2014 dead money as $5,683,721. $114,624,410 + $5,683,721 = $120,308,131. The 2014 projected cap is $126.3 milion so the Pats are under it by about $6 million.

In order to re-sign Aqib Talib, the New England Patriots will most likely, at a minimum, have to shell out a contract comparable to Ike Taylor.

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Cornerback

For the New England Patriots to free up $7 million in salary cap space for Aqib Talib, the New England Patriots would need to cut Tommy Kelly, Isaac Sopoaga, Adrian Wilson which adds up to salary cap savings of $6.167 million. The defensive tackle position prior to draft would be the following:

Wilfork, Armstead, Siliga, Jones (Chris), Vellano, Grissom

If the New England Patriots offer a three contract extension to Gostkowski and convert his current $2 million base salary to a signing bonus, the New England Patriots will save an additional $1.5 million in salary cap space for the 2014 NFL Season.

For a total salary cap savings of $7.667 million, the New England Patriots could most likely re-sign cornerback Aqib Talib and linebacker Dane Fletcher.

Furthermore, long snapper Danny Aiken will be a restricted free agent and the lowest tender for the 2014 NFL Season is $1.389 million.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

You are not taking into account the realities of the salary cap with regard to spending even more money in unrestricted free agency, especially at the wide receiver position.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2014 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page



In order to re-sign Aqib Talib, the New England Patriots most likely, at a minimum, will have to shell out a contract comparable to Ike Taylor.

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Cornerback

For the New England Patriots to free up $7 million in salary cap space for Aqib Talib, the New England Patriots would need to cut Tommy Kelly, Isaac Sopoaga, Adrian Wilson which adds up to salary cap savings of $6.167 million. The defensive tackle position prior to draft would be the following:

Wilfork, Armstead, Siliga, Jones (Chris), Vellano, Grissom

If the New England Patriots offer a three contract extension to Gostkowski and convert his current $2 million base salary to a signing bonus, the New England Patriots will save an additional $1.5 million in salary cap space for the 2014 NFL Season.

For a total salary cap savings of $7.667 million, the New England Patriots could most likely re-sign cornerback Aqib Talib and linebacker Dane Fletcher.

That also doesnt take in to account the addition 5mil kicked over from this years cap, and assumes that Talibs contract wont be staggered. It also fails to restructure Wilfork down, which, if it didnt happen, would be the shock of the offseason.

Add in the extra 5mil, talibs cap closer to 4.5, and Wilfork from 11 to 6, and I just found us another 13mil without any other cuts.

 

[ATippett56]

That also doesnt take in to account the addition 5mil kicked over from this years cap, and assumes that Talibs contract wont be staggered.

It's not $5 million but $4 million.

https://www.nflplayers.com/reports/RunPublicReport.aspx?report=top51

Nor have you taken account the following:

Injured Reserve
PUP
Players 52 & 53
Practice Squad
2014 NFL Draft Class

The aforementioned will most likely total closer to $10 million than $6 million.

 

[ATippett56]

It also fails to restructure Wilfork down, which, if it didnt happen, would be the shock of the offseason.

At this point in time, I'm not even willing to discuss Vince Wilfork's contract situation since no one knows his current rehabilitation status.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

At this point in time, I'm not even willing to discuss Vince Wilfork's contract situation since no one knows his current rehabilitation status.

which is fair, but its going to be dealt with one way or another. No chance they bring him back at 11mil pricetag.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Earlier this season i would have had the interior DL as a major need but finding Siliga and Chris Jones on the street has really changed that and even though they will have to deal with the contract issues with Wilfork and kelly i think it is a strength on the whole. As of right now i think that a second TE and another starting receiver are serious priorities. I really like Amaro and would take him in a heartbeat if he were on the board when they pick and would seriously think about using their second rounder on a WR, especially given the depth of this year's class. They can still address interior OL, LB, and other needs through free agency and with their remaining picks but right now that's how i would look at it.