2 yards

[Claremonster]

Obviously Welker is better than any receiver currently on the Patriots. Unless of course it's the Welker you see when it's the playoffs, the game is on the line, and the football hits him in the hands.

He is as clutch in the playoffs as Peyton Manning is. And me and all of the people in this forum.

 

[Brady6]

Funny, but by my in-depth study of the data, the Patriots are better than last year. The Patriots have a better record through 8 than in 2012, and need to beat the Steelers to be 7-2, also a game better than last year.

This team has overcome more adversity and injuries than a year ago, and overcome Welker's departure. This is a gritty, resilient team.

Screw the two yards, it's time to appreciate what we've got going on here.

Imagine if the players had that mentality when Belichick pointed out areas of opportunity? Identifying something or discussing a specific area does not equate to being unhappy with the team and it doesn’t indicate a belief that last year’s team was better, it is looking at everything and discussing the positives and negatives of the team, if we had those 2 yards maybe we would be 9-0 right now, 7-2 is great but I would rather be 9-0 so why not discuss the things that could have prevented that? I do appreciate what we have going on here, I appreciate it so much in fact that I want to talk about how to make it even better, if I did not appreciate the team do you think I would spend my time on a forum discussing it? I for one do not invest my time in things I do not appreciate.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think the consensus amongst most is that of all the issues we've had on offense the slot wide receiver had been the smallest despite the loss of Welker.

If that's the 'consensus', the 'consensus' is on drugs.

 

[Brady6]

I agree that you cannot assess the difference solely with a YPC average. So much about Welker was his ability to make short, clutch catches when needed. Dropping third down completions is huge, and often is the difference between good and bad offenses.

People with this perception that Welker was not 'clutch' because of a Super Bowl drop readily overlooked all the games prior to the Super Bowl, and all the games likely won because the offense stayed on the field. It is often not the number of receptions that matter, nor the YPC, but rather when the reception is made in the game continuum.

Unlike baseball, there is no Moneyball statistics for football, in which salaries can be assigned based on average yards or number of receptions. That is pure fantasy football, and has little to do with winning and losing games in the NFL. Welker made those catches, and many looking for the 'why's' of the offense this year miss that simple point. Is that the only difference maker? No. But it is one of them.

Good points here, I was likely taking too simplistic of a look at the situation. I appreciate the feedback.

 

[Ring 6]

Your "perspective" is fine but it is obviously contrary to the way the Patriots FO (i.e., Bill Belichick) perceived the situation. Even though Wes was a model teammate and citizen, they were perfectly happy to let him walk and bring in another good but not great receiver who was a little younger to replace him.

Younger is the key word there.
Letting a player walk due to age and wear and tear, as well as the implication of diminishing skills (increased drops) is not indicative of how they felt about his career here. Welker was clearly the focal point of the passing game. The fact that they were concerned he could continue to be based on age and wear and tear can't be used to recreate history.

That is not what happens with the truly great receivers that are truly the focal points of their respective offenses. For example, Fitzy, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones are not going to be offered 2 year/$10M contracts any time soon

At the same stage of their career they may be.

. If you are saying that your perspective was proper and Bill's was improper, and I should take it on faith that you know more about football than BB, then I choose to not adopt your perspective on that basis

Nice strawman.
No, I am agreeing with BB based on how he used Welker.

. And it's not just BB. The league placed Wes's value at 2/$12M. Greg Jennings--a fine receiver but not the dominating force you are making Wes out to be-- got 5/$47M. So, really your perspective is at odds with the entirety of the NFL personnel establishment. Doesn't make it wrong, I guess...

I'm not making Welker out to be anything. I am describing his role in what was the best offense in NFL history over the time period he was in it.

Also, Wes primarily operated in the middle of the field 5 yards beyond the LOS. Who do you think is patrolling that area, if not linebackers and nickel corners?

Well, we have Bingo. If that is what you think, then we should stop talking.
First, you imply he was covered by LBs in MAN when you use that to imply the defense paid no attention to him. Being covered by a LB in zone when you run into a LB zone says zero about the receiver.
Further, Welker ran every route. That is the point. The focus on Welker meant the when he ran seam routes or outs, it opened up the middle for others, particularly the TEs. When he operated underneath it opened up outside, intermediate and deep routes.
Its just a fact of life that the Patriots built there passing game around Welkers role, and defenses focussed on it. I'm not sure what you were watching all those years if you didn't get that.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I haven't been happy with Amendola I'm not sure how anyone could be, Bolden is not a great fit for the 3rd role and the interior OL has been subpar. Other than that I agree with your take the rest of the players have given us something at least.

I'm not happy with Wilfork either, tearing his achilles, how lame is that?


Now that I think of it Mayo and Vollmer and Kelly are huge disappointments as well.




Oh, btw, I'm fine with Amendola, he has battled through nasty injuries this season, was great in Buffalo and yesterday and is going to be a big piece for them in the second half of the season. Keep on hating on him though.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think the consensus amongst most is that of all the issues we've had on offense the slot wide receiver had been the smallest despite the loss of Welker.

Then the consensus is in your head. The patriots went from the best 3rd down team in football to the worst, and guess what, they let the league leader in YAC and first downs go to Denver. Go figure, can't imagine where the problem might be. Edelman isn't a slot receiver and Amendola has been battling injuries, now that Amendola is back they ahve a shot at fixing it, especially with the return of Gronkowski, but the idea they haven't missed Welker severely is delusional at best.

 

[Huckleberry1]

LOL about Welker stressing the defense. Defenses have been happy to play Welker one on one for the last 3 years and give up the short stuff. In 2011 and 2012, Gronkowski and Hernandez were the top two options and the focus of every defense. Before that, it was Randy Moss. Now, Welker is the 4th option on the Broncos (before J. Thomas got hurt). Go have a look at his touchdowns this year--there is literally no one in the frame on most of them. Do you really think he is that elusive or do you think it is a function of the fact that the Broncos have three absolute beasts in the red zone that teams are preoccupied with?

That must be why teams put their best DB's on him and constructed defensive gameplans around stopping him, especially in the play-offs. The trashing of Welker is nothing but a vivid demonstration of football ignorance, only an idiot would think he's anything less than a great player.

 

[olschool]

That must be why teams put their best DB's on him and constructed defensive gameplans around stopping him, especially in the play-offs. The trashing of Welker is nothing but a vivid demonstration of football ignorance, only an idiot would think he's anything less than a great player.

It's funny how the " fans " hated Welker with the Dolphins, loved him here, and now diss him when he's gone.

He's a great player, I don't care what anyone says, and I wish he was still here.

That being said, I think Brady and his new receivers will have it all figured out by the end of the season, and Welker will only haunt us when we play Denver.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It's funny how the " fans " hated Welker with the Dolphins, loved him here, and now diss him when he's gone.

He's a great player, I don't care what anyone says, and I wish he was still here.

That being said, I think Brady and his new receivers will have it all figured out by the end of the season, and Welker will only haunt us when we play Denver.

Agree completely, and the idea they don't miss him when his greatest strength is their greatest weakness is totally absurd. he was a first down machine here and he's playing great for Bronco's. I have real concerns about the Patriots ability to stop him when they face denver. Arrington is going to have to have the game of his life imo for the patriots to get off the field on third down.

 

[ATippett56]

IMHO, the passing game issue is clearly the production of the TE's. Last year they caught 7 receptions a game and were critical in the red zone and in run-blocking.

No one currently on the New England Patriots roster has adequately replaced Aaron Hernandez.

 

[Brady6]

I'm not happy with Wilfork either, tearing his achilles, how lame is that?


Now that I think of it Mayo and Vollmer and Kelly are huge disappointments as well.




Oh, btw, I'm fine with Amendola, he has battled through nasty injuries this season, was great in Buffalo and yesterday and is going to be a big piece for them in the second half of the season. Keep on hating on him though.

You’re so dramatic; comparing Wilfork one of the best defensive linemen of his era who played in 96% of the Patriots games over the previous 9 season missing 6 games over his career entering 2013 and Mayo a top 5 all-purpose 3-down linebacker in the league who played in 94% of the Patriots games coming in to this season missing 5 games over his career entering 2013 to Danny Amendola a wide receiver who coming into yesterday’s game had less than 2000 career receiving yards in 4 ½ seasons in the NFL, and who has missed 4 of 9 games since joining the Patriots and has missed 24 games since the start of 2011. That’s just silly Ivan.

He was very good in the Buffalo game against the 26th ranked passing defense in the NFL, and he had over 100 yards thanks to some poor coverage by the Steelers, I am hardly overjoyed with Amendola and I don’t see how anyone who was looking at the situation unbiased would be.

I do share your hope that he is a big part of the offense in the second half for us. I believe he is very talented and could add a much needed element to our offense if he can remain on the football field. I’m not hating on him I am just outlining that he has not contributed a lot to this team over the first 8 games (I wrote my OP prior to yesterday’s game) and that was in my opinion has been a disappointment. I understand there were factors that caused his lack of contributions but the net result is still the same and that my being disappointed in his play – specifically the games he played in against the Bengals, Saints and Dolphins.

 

[Brady6]

Then the consensus is in your head. The patriots went from the best 3rd down team in football to the worst, and guess what, they let the league leader in YAC and first downs go to Denver. Go figure, can't imagine where the problem might be. Edelman isn't a slot receiver and Amendola has been battling injuries, now that Amendola is back they ahve a shot at fixing it, especially with the return of Gronkowski, but the idea they haven't missed Welker severely is delusional at best.

I agree, which is what I was highlighting in my OP the extra yardage that Welker made after the catch made a tremendous difference in both keeping us out of 3rd down situations and converting 3rd downs.

I don’t agree that Edelman is not a slot receiver; I think he is a very good slot receiver just not as good as Wes Welker, as far as Amendola I don’t think he will fix the problem completely. In 2011 and 2012 Welker combined for 1469 yards after the catch entering this season Amendola has 857 yards after the catch in his career. Welker ran after the catch for 900 more yards than Amendola had totaled since Amendola has entered the NFL. Danny will certainly help but he is a lesser player than Welker for a number of reasons in my opinion.

Danny Amendola - Advanced Receiving Breakdown
Year Rec. Yds TD 1st-D YAC Targets Catch% YAC% 1st-D%
2009 43 326 100.00% 20 183 63 68.25 56.13 46.51%
2010 85 689 300.00% 35 390 123 69.11 56.6 41.18%
2011 5 45 0.00% 3 18 6 83.33 40 60.00%
2012 63 666 300.00% 38 266 101 62.38 39.94 60.32%
TOT 196 1726 700.00% 96 857 293 66.89 49.65 48.98%

Wes Welker - Advanced Receiving Breakdown
Year Rec. Yards TD 1st-D YAC Targets Catch% YAC% 1st-D%
2005 29 434 0.00% 20 171 52 55.77 39.4 68.97%
2006 67 687 100.00% 33 285 100 67 41.48 49.25%
2007 112 1175 800.00% 65 640 145 77.24 54.47 58.04%
2008 111 1165 300.00% 57 758 149 74.5 65.06 51.35%
2009 123 1348 400.00% 71 721 162 75.93 53.49 57.72%
2010 86 848 700.00% 47 433 123 69.92 51.06 54.65%
2011 122 1569 900.00% 77 751 173 70.52 47.86 63.11%
2012 118 1354 6 72 719 175 67.43 53.1 61.02%
TOT 768 8580 38 442 4478 1079 71.18 52.19 57.55%
NE 672 7459 37 389 4022 927 72.49 53.92 57.89%

 

[Brady6]

No one currently on the New England Patriots roster has adequately replaced Aaron Hernandez.

We don’t know that to be true yet..

Massachusett's Cold Cases

 

[Deus Irae]

...IMHO, the passing game issue is clearly the production of the TE's. Last year they caught 7 receptions a game and were critical in the red zone and in run-blocking.

This team's passing game had been four-pronged ever since Moss was traded. It revolved around Welker-Gronk as the main axis, with AHern and the RBs as the secondary components, and the outside WRs being merely tertiary. Attempts to upgrade the outside were either complete failures (Brandon Tate, a/k/a the cautionary tale) or insufficient on their own (Brandon Lloyd a/k/a still needed another WR on the other side to complete the set).

 

[olschool]

We don’t know that to be true yet..

Massachusett's Cold Cases

It's looking like Dobson will be that guy. He has the size and speed to play both inside slant routes and outside deep routes. Let's pray for his continued good health.

 

[Huckleberry1]

You’re so dramatic; comparing Wilfork one of the best defensive linemen of his era who played in 96% of the Patriots games over the previous 9 season missing 6 games over his career entering 2013 and Mayo a top 5 all-purpose 3-down linebacker in the league who played in 94% of the Patriots games coming in to this season missing 5 games over his career entering 2013 to Danny Amendola a wide receiver who coming into yesterday’s game had less than 2000 career receiving yards in 4 ½ seasons in the NFL, and who has missed 4 of 9 games since joining the Patriots and has missed 24 games since the start of 2011. That’s just silly Ivan.

He was very good in the Buffalo game against the 26th ranked passing defense in the NFL, and he had over 100 yards thanks to some poor coverage by the Steelers, I am hardly overjoyed with Amendola and I don’t see how anyone who was looking at the situation unbiased would be.

I do share your hope that he is a big part of the offense in the second half for us. I believe he is very talented and could add a much needed element to our offense if he can remain on the football field. I’m not hating on him I am just outlining that he has not contributed a lot to this team over the first 8 games (I wrote my OP prior to yesterday’s game) and that was in my opinion has been a disappointment. I understand there were factors that caused his lack of contributions but the net result is still the same and that my being disappointed in his play – specifically the games he played in against the Bengals, Saints and Dolphins.

I wasn't comparing Amendola to Wilfork, Mayo, or Vollmer, I was pointing out how ridiculous it is to be disappointed in a player for being injured.

 

[Huckleberry1]

No one currently on the New England Patriots roster has adequately replaced Aaron Hernandez.

Well, Rae Carruth will be coming up parole in a few years, and OJ may be up for an early release.

 

[letekro]

Agree completely, and the idea they don't miss him when his greatest strength is their greatest weakness is totally absurd. he was a first down machine here and he's playing great for Bronco's. I have real concerns about the Patriots ability to stop him when they face denver. Arrington is going to have to have the game of his life imo for the patriots to get off the field on third down.

He will probably catch 10 balls because Wes Welker is not the 1st, second, or 3d concern of any defense playing the Broncos. Keep him in front of you, hit him, take away the deep ball to the three 6' 3" - 6' 5" studs. That's the plan you will see in a few weeks. Maybe you should watch SB XLII again. Giants took away Moss over the top and let Welker run wild underneath. Pats scored 14 points. You yourself admit that the Pats will need a great game from Arrington. If Wes is such a big concern, why does the responsibility for stopping him belong to Arrington? Whn not Talib/Dennard plus a safety, which is the respect that Julio Jones received?

Wes was a very good player, still is. But suggesting that teams were trying to stop him above all else when Moss was getting the #1 CB plus safety help or when Gronk and AH were terrorizing the middle of the field is just wrong. Did you watch the game yesterday? Do you honestly think that Wes Welker ever had the effect on a game that Gronkowski had yesterday? Gronkowski is nothing less than a Calvin Johnson-level, elite, elite player. AH was not far behind. Welker was clearly the 3rd most dangerous of that group.

 

[letekro]

Younger is the key word there.
Letting a player walk due to age and wear and tear, as well as the implication of diminishing skills (increased drops) is not indicative of how they felt about his career here. Welker was clearly the focal point of the passing game. The fact that they were concerned he could continue to be based on age and wear and tear can't be used to recreate history.




At the same stage of their career they may be.



Nice strawman.
No, I am agreeing with BB based on how he used Welker.




I'm not making Welker out to be anything. I am describing his role in what was the best offense in NFL history over the time period he was in it.




Well, we have Bingo. If that is what you think, then we should stop talking.
First, you imply he was covered by LBs in MAN when you use that to imply the defense paid no attention to him. Being covered by a LB in zone when you run into a LB zone says zero about the receiver.
Further, Welker ran every route. That is the point. The focus on Welker meant the when he ran seam routes or outs, it opened up the middle for others, particularly the TEs. When he operated underneath it opened up outside, intermediate and deep routes.
Its just a fact of life that the Patriots built there passing game around Welkers role, and defenses focussed on it. I'm not sure what you were watching all those years if you didn't get that.

Look my opinion vs your opinion is not really worth arguing about, especially when your opinion has proven to be worthless in the past (let's see, off the top of my head, Pats will blow out Ravens in 2012 playoffs, Pats will blow out Jets in 2010 playoffs--don't make me go and pull your "analysis"). Let's instead review what the Patriots thought about how important Wes was:

Wes was what 29 or 30 when the Gronk and AH contracts came down? So, back then, when many on this board were comically trumpeting him as the best WR in the game (i.e., better than Calvin Johnson), the Pats had already determined to put their money into Gronk and AH and not Welker. So don't talk to me about the decision being due to diminishing skills.

As a point of comparison, Larry Fitzgerald will sign a contract this offseason. He will be 31 before next season begins. I assure you that he will not sign a contract worth $10, $12 or even $50 million. Do you disagree? Real value is denoted with dollar signs. As I predicted, Wes would not make any money in the free agent market because he is just not that valuable a player when stacked up against the real dominant players in this league, or do you think it is just a league-wide conspiracy to depress his value?