2 yards

[Brady6]

I think the consensus amongst most is that of all the issues we've had on offense the slot wide receiver had been the smallest despite the loss of Welker. Edelman has been outstanding giving us contributions almost nobody would have expected, Amendola had one good game in week 1 and since has either been injured or subpar; the 2 of them have combined for 67 receptions, 636 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That's some good production out of the slot position, and we certainly wouldn't be 6-2 without it.

The question I have is are we coming about 2 yards short of replacing Welker?

Welker averaged 12.9 yards per catch in 2011 and 11.5 yards per catch in 2012, this season Edelman is averaging 9.6 yards per catch and Amendola is averaging 9.2 yards per catch.

With all the issues on 3rd down this season how much do you think this 2-3 yards per catch difference is making?

Is the 2-3 yard difference actually caused by the someone other than Welker receiving the football or does it just happen to correlate?

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I think the consensus amongst most is that of all the issues we've had on offense the slot wide receiver had been the smallest despite the loss of Welker. Edelman has been outstanding giving us contributions almost nobody would have expected, Amendola had one good game in week 1 and since has either been injured or subpar; the 2 of them have combined for 67 receptions, 636 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That's some good production out of the slot position, and we certainly wouldn't be 6-2 without it.

The question I have is are we coming about 2 yards short of replacing Welker?

Welker averaged 12.9 yards per catch in 2011 and 11.5 yards per catch in 2012, this season Edelman is averaging 9.6 yards per catch and Amendola is averaging 9.2 yards per catch.

With all the issues on 3rd down this season how much do you think this 2-3 yards per catch difference is making?

Is the 2-3 yard difference actually caused by the someone other than Welker receiving the football or does it just happen to correlate?

As much as I would like to say we need help at the slot, we have had bad luck on offense and with injury. If Tom can get his hand healed, and we actually field the same receivers each week, we might have a good offense. But the fact seems to be, some bad oline blocking, almost new targets for Tom each week is wreaking havoc on the offense in my mind. If we can have healthy receivers each week, I think the offense improves. This might be the week they get some improvement.

And to answer your question, every inch is critical. 2 yards is huge.

 

[mgteich]

So, you are suggesting that Edelman and an injured Amendola don't quite replace Welker? Is this really that much of a surprise?

We'll see if this improves as Amendola get more of the reps in the slot. My guess is that this will also be improved if the wide receivers are respected a bit more, and therefore stretch the field a bit. However, I'm not sure I see a problem.

BTW, what if anyone before the season would had said that Edelman/Amendola would be
on a pasce for 134 receptions, 1272 yards and 4 TD's? I suspect most would have thought that this kind of production would be just fine.

The BOTTOM line is that Amendola and Edelman are producing about what Welker did last year.
==========
I would note that the rest of the receivers this year (Thompkins, Dobson, Coliie) are also producing at about the same rate of total yards and receptions as receivers not named Welker did last year.
===========
IMHO, the passing game issue is clearly the production of the TE's. Last year they caught 7 receptions a game and were critical in the red zone and in run-blocking.

I think the consensus amongst most is that of all the issues we've had on offense the slot wide receiver had been the smallest despite the loss of Welker. Edelman has been outstanding giving us contributions almost nobody would have expected, Amendola had one good game in week 1 and since has either been injured or subpar; the 2 of them have combined for 67 receptions, 636 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That's some good production out of the slot position, and we certainly wouldn't be 6-2 without it.

The question I have is are we coming about 2 yards short of replacing Welker?

Welker averaged 12.9 yards per catch in 2011 and 11.5 yards per catch in 2012, this season Edelman is averaging 9.6 yards per catch and Amendola is averaging 9.2 yards per catch.

With all the issues on 3rd down this season how much do you think this 2-3 yards per catch difference is making?

Is the 2-3 yard difference actually caused by the someone other than Welker receiving the football or does it just happen to correlate?

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: 2 yards

BTW, what if anyone before the season would had said that Edelman/Amendola would be
on a pasce for 134 receptions, 1272 yards and 4 TD's? I suspect most would have thought that this kind of production would be just fine.

I think Edelman has been great for us and exceeded expectations, I think Amendola has been the biggest disappointment on the team over the first half. However I agree the production overall has been very good which I highlighted in my OP the question is how much is that 2 yard difference making and is the difference caused by the difference in player(s) or simply a corelation of this season circumstances.

 

[olschool]

I think Edelman has been great for us and exceeded expectations, I think Amendola has been the biggest disappointment on the team over the first half. However I agree the production overall has been very good which I highlighted in my OP the question is how much is that 2 yard difference making and is the difference caused by the difference in player(s) or simply a corelation of this season circumstances.

The difference is plain to see in their third down conversion ranking. They've gone from one of the best to one of the worst in the league.

Welker and Woodhead were money on third down, Amendola and Edelman not so much.

 

[Ring 6]

Its not about statistics.
When Welker was here the passing game revolved around his role. The plays and route combinations were set up to put pressure on a defense to take away Welker and often they both tried and couldn't. It opened up others, and Welker was also able to get open with the extra focus and attention of the defense.
The offensive scheme this year has changed because it had to. NO ONE is going to feel pressure to stop Edelman thereby opening up other things. Almost 30% of Edelmans catches came in one game when the offense was horrendous, and were the result of taking what the defense gave because they were happy to allow Edelman to take the easy catch because they could defend him if he tried to get down the field.
Edelman is not operating in the middle of the field, which is part of how Welker set the tone and stressed the defense.
Edelman has not replaced Welker. Not even close. The only way to conclude that is to read a stat sheet and compare white guys.
Edelman has 12 catches on 3rd or 4th down, Welker had 33 last year.
We were #1 in 3rd down conversions last year and are #29 this year.

 

[Captain Cliche]

How about you compare 3rd down conversion % and tell me they don't miss Welker.

 

[mgteich]

I'm fine with the production from every unit other than the tight ends. I;m fine with the production from the WR's, QB, RB's, slot backs, and OL. I understand that there are folks who disagree with me on almost all those conclusions.

To me, the situation is very, very simple. This team, as presently constructed, cannot succeed without significant contributions from its tight ends. As we have found out in another recent season, we NEED a healthy Gronkowski done the stretch and in the playoffs. If Gronk can block, be available in the red zone, and be an occasional target at other times, we will be just fine. If Gronk is not healthy, I don't see us going far into the playoffs without a lot of luck.

Clearly, TE should be a major priority in the next off-season.

I think Edelman has been great for us and exceeded expectations, I think Amendola has been the biggest disappointment on the team over the first half. However I agree the production overall has been very good which I highlighted in my OP the question is how much is that 2 yard difference making and is the difference caused by the difference in player(s) or simply a corelation of this season circumstances.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm fine with the production from every unit other than the tight ends. I;m fine with the production from the WR's, QB, RB's, slot backs, and OL. I understand that there are folks who disagree with me on almost all those conclusions.

To me, the situation is very, very simple. This team, as presently constructed, cannot succeed without significant contributions from its tight ends. As we have found out in another recent season, we NEED a healthy Gronkowski done the stretch and in the playoffs. If Gronk can block, be available in the red zone, and be an occasional target at other times, we will be just fine. If Gronk is not healthy, I don't see us going far into the playoffs without a lot of luck.

Clearly, TE should be a major priority in the next off-season.

You are fine with the OL?
With the outside receivers and their drops?
With Brandon Bolden?
Really?

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: 2 yards

Its not about statistics.
When Welker was here the passing game revolved around his role. The plays and route combinations were set up to put pressure on a defense to take away Welker and often they both tried and couldn't. It opened up others, and Welker was also able to get open with the extra focus and attention of the defense.
The offensive scheme this year has changed because it had to. NO ONE is going to feel pressure to stop Edelman thereby opening up other things. Almost 30% of Edelmans catches came in one game when the offense was horrendous, and were the result of taking what the defense gave because they were happy to allow Edelman to take the easy catch because they could defend him if he tried to get down the field.
Edelman is not operating in the middle of the field, which is part of how Welker set the tone and stressed the defense.
Edelman has not replaced Welker. Not even close. The only way to conclude that is to read a stat sheet and compare white guys.
Edelman has 12 catches on 3rd or 4th down, Welker had 33 last year.
We were #1 in 3rd down conversions last year and are #29 this year.

All great points Andy, this perspective changes my view a lot.

 

[letekro]

Its not about statistics.
When Welker was here the passing game revolved around his role. The plays and route combinations were set up to put pressure on a defense to take away Welker and often they both tried and couldn't. It opened up others, and Welker was also able to get open with the extra focus and attention of the defense.
The offensive scheme this year has changed because it had to. NO ONE is going to feel pressure to stop Edelman thereby opening up other things. Almost 30% of Edelmans catches came in one game when the offense was horrendous, and were the result of taking what the defense gave because they were happy to allow Edelman to take the easy catch because they could defend him if he tried to get down the field.
Edelman is not operating in the middle of the field, which is part of how Welker set the tone and stressed the defense.
Edelman has not replaced Welker. Not even close. The only way to conclude that is to read a stat sheet and compare white guys.
Edelman has 12 catches on 3rd or 4th down, Welker had 33 last year.
We were #1 in 3rd down conversions last year and are #29 this year.

LOL about Welker stressing the defense. Defenses have been happy to play Welker one on one for the last 3 years and give up the short stuff. In 2011 and 2012, Gronkowski and Hernandez were the top two options and the focus of every defense. Before that, it was Randy Moss. Now, Welker is the 4th option on the Broncos (before J. Thomas got hurt). Go have a look at his touchdowns this year--there is literally no one in the frame on most of them. Do you really think he is that elusive or do you think it is a function of the fact that the Broncos have three absolute beasts in the red zone that teams are preoccupied with?

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: 2 yards

I'm fine with the production from every unit other than the tight ends. I;m fine with the production from the WR's, QB, RB's, slot backs, and OL. I understand that there are folks who disagree with me on almost all those conclusions.

To me, the situation is very, very simple. This team, as presently constructed, cannot succeed without significant contributions from its tight ends. As we have found out in another recent season, we NEED a healthy Gronkowski done the stretch and in the playoffs. If Gronk can block, be available in the red zone, and be an occasional target at other times, we will be just fine. If Gronk is not healthy, I don't see us going far into the playoffs without a lot of luck.

Clearly, TE should be a major priority in the next off-season.

I haven't been happy with Amendola I'm not sure how anyone could be, Bolden is not a great fit for the 3rd role and the interior OL has been subpar. Other than that I agree with your take the rest of the players have given us something at least.

 

[Ring 6]

LOL about Welker stressing the defense. Defenses have been happy to play Welker one on one for the last 3 years and give up the short stuff. In 2011 and 2012, Gronkowski and Hernandez were the top two options and the focus of every defense. Before that, it was Randy Moss. Now, Welker is the 4th option on the Broncos (before J. Thomas got hurt). Go have a look at his touchdowns this year--there is literally no one in the frame on most of them. Do you really think he is that elusive or do you think it is a function of the fact that the Broncos have three absolute beasts in the red zone that teams are preoccupied with?

I'm not going to argue, but if you don't know the Patriot passing game revolved around Welker and defenses focussed on that, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[MassPats38]

I agree that you cannot assess the difference solely with a YPC average. So much about Welker was his ability to make short, clutch catches when needed. Dropping third down completions is huge, and often is the difference between good and bad offenses.

People with this perception that Welker was not 'clutch' because of a Super Bowl drop readily overlooked all the games prior to the Super Bowl, and all the games likely won because the offense stayed on the field. It is often not the number of receptions that matter, nor the YPC, but rather when the reception is made in the game continuum.

Unlike baseball, there is no Moneyball statistics for football, in which salaries can be assigned based on average yards or number of receptions. That is pure fantasy football, and has little to do with winning and losing games in the NFL. Welker made those catches, and many looking for the 'why's' of the offense this year miss that simple point. Is that the only difference maker? No. But it is one of them.

 

[letekro]

I'm not going to argue, but if you don't know the Patriot passing game revolved around Welker and defenses focussed on that, I don't know what to tell you.

You shouldn't argue, because you have no support. If he was the focus of every defense, why was he covered by a single nickel back (i.e., at best, the 3rd best coverage player on the opposition) or LB 90% of the time? Moss always, always drew the #1 CB AND a safety over the top. Welker never, ever did. Also, there were two elite talents in the receiver corps of the 2011 and 2012 Patriots and neither one was Wes Welker. Here's a hint, they were the guys who got about $100M in contracts. The guy you say was the focus of the offense got a very weak offer of 2 years @5M. That's not even Danny Amendola money, brotha.

 

[Ring 6]

No I don't want to argue because it our comments indicate we are watching from totally different perspectives and any discussion that starts from you thinkng welder was coved by linebackers just has no hope of going well.

 

[goheels22002]

Funny, but by my in-depth study of the data, the Patriots are better than last year. The Patriots have a better record through 8 than in 2012, and need to beat the Steelers to be 7-2, also a game better than last year.

This team has overcome more adversity and injuries than a year ago, and overcome Welker's departure. This is a gritty, resilient team.

Screw the two yards, it's time to appreciate what we've got going on here.

 

[letekro]

No I don't want to argue because it our comments indicate we are watching from totally different perspectives and any discussion that starts from you thinkng welder was coved by linebackers just has no hope of going well.

Your "perspective" is fine but it is obviously contrary to the way the Patriots FO (i.e., Bill Belichick) perceived the situation. Even though Wes was a model teammate and citizen, they were perfectly happy to let him walk and bring in another good but not great receiver who was a little younger to replace him. That is not what happens with the truly great receivers that are truly the focal points of their respective offenses. For example, Fitzy, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones are not going to be offered 2 year/$10M contracts any time soon. If you are saying that your perspective was proper and Bill's was improper, and I should take it on faith that you know more about football than BB, then I choose to not adopt your perspective on that basis. And it's not just BB. The league placed Wes's value at 2/$12M. Greg Jennings--a fine receiver but not the dominating force you are making Wes out to be-- got 5/$47M. So, really your perspective is at odds with the entirety of the NFL personnel establishment. Doesn't make it wrong, I guess...

Also, Wes primarily operated in the middle of the field 5 yards beyond the LOS. Who do you think is patrolling that area, if not linebackers and nickel corners?

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Obviously Welker is better than any receiver currently on the Patriots. Unless of course it's the Welker you see when it's the playoffs, the game is on the line, and the football hits him in the hands.

 

[Claremonster]

Its not about statistics.
When Welker was here the passing game revolved around his role. The plays and route combinations were set up to put pressure on a defense to take away Welker and often they both tried and couldn't. It opened up others, and Welker was also able to get open with the extra focus and attention of the defense.
The offensive scheme this year has changed because it had to. NO ONE is going to feel pressure to stop Edelman thereby opening up other things. Almost 30% of Edelmans catches came in one game when the offense was horrendous, and were the result of taking what the defense gave because they were happy to allow Edelman to take the easy catch because they could defend him if he tried to get down the field.
Edelman is not operating in the middle of the field, which is part of how Welker set the tone and stressed the defense.
Edelman has not replaced Welker. Not even close. The only way to conclude that is to read a stat sheet and compare white guys.
Edelman has 12 catches on 3rd or 4th down, Welker had 33 last year.
We were #1 in 3rd down conversions last year and are #29 this year.

Welker is gone. Time to move on, isn't it?

Moreso, he wanted out. It wasn't like Woodhead who would have stayed here if BB signed him to a worthwhile deal. Welker wanted out of here.

Good riddance.