15 points behind, say 7 minutes to go, you score a TD. Do ya go for 2, NOW?

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

This scenario happens on occasion, and was confronted by John Harbaugh this weekend.

The "convensional wisdom" is to kick the extra point and "make it a one score game". Then you rely on your D, hope to get it back, hope to score again, and then go for two to tie.

So.... you delay the risky play.

Problem is, then you won't know if you are going to convert that risky play, perhaps, until such time as converting it has become your only hope. Isn't it better to know SOONER? If you make it, you're set. if you miss it, you instead play to get two posessions. It's a taller task, but you know it up front. That knowledge can affect your strategy. You use your TOs earlier, for example, needing two scores.

I intensely dislike Harbaugh, but I think that he made the right decision to go for the two pointer earlier rather than later. They missed on the 2-pointer, so he is of course second-guessed.

I guess the downside is "momentum" and a sense of doom if you don't make it. The opponent will also be more geared toward milking the clock. Oddly, though, that may be an advantage rather than a disadvantage for you, if you opponent is trending away from the play style that they used to get ahead in the first place.

For this question, assume that you kicker is a good one, the weather is fine, an XP is more or less like Larry Bird shooting a free throw, and you have all of your time outs.

 

[Guts]

You go for 2 in the next drive so you kick it to keep it a one possession game

 

[Nehalem]

Go for two

You play to win the game, not for tv ratings.

There is no advantage to delaying going for 2.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Agree with harbaugh here. There’s a benefit in that you can game plan accordingly if you miss. I don’t see a benefit in waiting until the end to try the 2.

 

[Sicilian]

I think some of it is psychology (1 score "feels" better and gives the team more oomph depending on their mental makeup), but in general I've had the same thought. If there's 10 minutes left or so, I want to know whether I need two more drives to win or only one, and I won't know that unless I know the outcome of the 2 point play at that point.

 

[mikey m]

Go for two

You play to win the game, not for tv ratings.

There is no advantage to delaying going for 2.

You could argue that taking the xp and making it a one possession game builds momentum. Going for it and not converting would be a momentum killer. But overall, I think I would be inclined to go for 2 up front.

 

[Nehalem]

Assuming that XP kicks are more or less a guarantee and 2 point conversion is about 50-50.

An 8 point game isn't really a "1 possession game" whereas a 7 point game is.

Its like Schrodinger's cat. The game is simultaneously a 1 score and 2 score game as the true fate of the game being determined by a random event.

So its basically a Quantum 1 possession game. Smart play is to collapse the wave function and find out if the cat is dead or alive.

 

[RobertWeathers]

How many timeouts do I have?

Is my D playing well or sucking wind?

How about my offense?

Is my kicker automatic?

I kick the XP. Keep it a 1 score game. Chasing points is bad for business.

You miss you now need 2 possessions.

 

[Sicilian]

How many timeouts do I have?

Is my D playing well our sucking wind?

How about my offense?

Is my kicker automatic?

I kick the XP. Keep it a 1 score game. Chasing points is bad for business.

You miss you now need 2 possessions.

And if you miss at the very end, you still needed two possessions, except now by the time you find that out you don't have any time left.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

How many timeouts do I have?

See the last line of the OP:

"For this question, assume that you kicker is a good one, the weather is fine, an XP is more or less like Larry Bird shooting a free throw, and you have all of your time outs".

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

You only want to go for two if you have to, it's a low percentage play.

The cost of losing that one point is too high.

That said, if you have a special trick play in your pocket, and/or you see a specific vulnerability in their goal line defense, your chances are greater, and the above logic may be applicable.

In Belichick's case, either way, I expect the offense comes out to execute whatever they do without giving the defense any extra time to adjust personnel/positioning.

I must say, I haven't seen anyone else successfully execute the two point conversion as effectively as the Patriots have this century, usually with a running play. This is obviously an enormous testament to Belichick's brilliance, and uniqueness. (yeah it's Man Crush Monday)

 

[Wax Frog]

Its like Schrodinger's cat. The game is simultaneously a 1 score and 2 score game as the true fate of the game being determined by a random event.

So its basically a Quantum 1 possession game. Smart play is to collapse the wave function and find out if the cat is dead or alive.

In an alternate universe, there's a hockey league for physicists, and the Einstein Podolsky Rosen line was legendary

 

[upstater1]

You kick the XP. Why? Because the opposing team will need to throw on its possession and the chances are you will keep the clock from running down. You'll have a higher chance at even more possessions because of that.

Since they're only up one score, they won't kill the game clock.

 

[TomPatriot]

How many timeouts do I have?

Is my D playing well our sucking wind?

How about my offense?

Is my kicker automatic?

I kick the XP. Keep it a 1 score game. Chasing points is bad for business.

You miss you now need 2 possessions.

The pressure is on the offense to convert if you go for two now. If you wait until you score again the pressure is on both the offense and the defense and that’s why, absent any other mitigating factors, I kick.

 

[RobertWeathers]

And if you miss at the very end, you still needed two possessions, except now by the time you find that out you don't have any time left.

Might change if I had all 3 TOs but I want my entire playbook for that 2nd drive.

 

[Dr Pain]

Keeping it a 1 scope game keeps up the psychological pressure on the other team. Miss and have it a two score game and they will feel les pressure. Make the 2 pointer and it is still a 1 score game. Psychological pressure is real. Look at Tampa Bay last night. Look at the Falcons in the SB.

 

[XLIX]

Problem is, then you won't know if you are going to convert that risky play, perhaps, until such time as converting it has become your only hope. Isn't it better to know SOONER? If you make it, you're set. if you miss it, you instead play to get two posessions. It's a taller task, but you know it up front. That knowledge can affect your strategy. You use your TOs earlier, for example, needing two scores.

I am of two minds on the issue. However, it is worth pointing out that yes, by going for 2 right away you gain some knowledge and can adjust your strategy based on whether or not you make it. However, your opponent gains the same knowledge and will therefore also adjust their strategy accordingly.

If you take the (presumably) surefire 1 point, then your opponent will strategize as if it is a 1 possession game which, IMHO, puts additional pressure on them and increases the chances they have a bad possession.

 

[GaryfromTO]

Kick the extra point. Go for two if you score another TD.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

This scenario happens on occasion, and was confronted by John Harbaugh this weekend.

The "convensional wisdom" is to kick the extra point and "make it a one score game". Then you rely on your D, hope to get it back, hope to score again, and then go for two to tie.

So.... you delay the risky play.

Problem is, then you won't know if you are going to convert that risky play, perhaps, until such time as converting it has become your only hope. Isn't it better to know SOONER? If you make it, you're set. if you miss it, you instead play to get two posessions. It's a taller task, but you know it up front. That knowledge can affect your strategy. You use your TOs earlier, for example, needing two scores.

I intensely dislike Harbaugh, but I think that he made the right decision to go for the two pointer earlier rather than later. They missed on the 2-pointer, so he is of course second-guessed.

I guess the downside is "momentum" and a sense of doom if you don't make it. The opponent will also be more geared toward milking the clock. Oddly, though, that may be an advantage rather than a disadvantage for you, if you opponent is trending away from the play style that they used to get ahead in the first place.

For this question, assume that you kicker is a good one, the weather is fine, an XP is more or less like Larry Bird shooting a free throw, and you have all of your time outs.

You kick the XP. If the QB throws a pick it could go the other way for 2 points for the defense, which is considered a safety. Of course, this could still happen on a 2-point try after the next touchdown, but the INT would be absolutely devastating up front.

 

[Deus Irae]

What Five Thirty Eight says:




What even a passing understanding of football SHOULD tell you:

You go for one, most of the time*, unless you are the significantly inferior team.







*Context matters, after all.