15 points behind, say 7 minutes to go, you score a TD. Do ya go for 2, NOW?

[DropKickFlutie]

What did they do in the Falcons game.

Do that.

.

 

[borg]

All depends on the confidence you have in your defense.
Miss the two pointer, team needs a minimum of two additional offensive drives to score 9.

Then there's external factors
Noise, wind direction, likelihood of making EP and/or FG
If your QB has cajones
If the refs are on the take
Who Goodell has bet on

 

[Patsfan1958]

I'd run it in for 2 against the Bills defense

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

When trailing, I don't like going for 2 until I have no choice. In other words, if I don't have to go for 2 to have a realistic shot to win the game, I'm not doing it. Keep yourself in the game for as long as you can.

 

[jah]

As far as post-TD decisions go, this one isn't as clear cut to me. I really do think the arguments make sense in both directions. I suppose the operative part of the question is "7 minutes to go". Probably the toughest time to decide, which I suppose is why you chose it--do you think you have enough time to score twice?

It probably just depends on the feel of the game and its momentum. Some games you might feel more confident about the prospect of scoring twice in 7 minutes than other games. It's a similar factor to when you might go for 2 to win a game in regulation vs kick an extra point to force overtime. Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's wrong, and there's obviously a high level of subjectivity to it. On that topic, I thought Harbaugh made the right call against Pittsburgh even though it didn't work out for him (and thank god for that).

As for Pittsburgh against the Vikings, which is more comparable to the situation described in this thread, I still think that was a fine decision. At the end of the day, it wasn't why they lost because they got the lost extra point back with a later 2pt and ultimately still found themselves in a position to tie at the end. Wouldn't have hated an XP in that situation either though.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

And if you miss at the very end, you still needed two possessions, except now by the time you find that out you don't have any time left.

If you go for 2 and fail what about the psychologic effect on your offense that they now need to definitely score on the next posession bc you need another posession anyway.
Kick the XP bc if you fail then in the end you had a legitimate shot to win the game you just failed that one Play. And keep it to one score game you put pressure on the opposing offense, if you fail the 2 pt they have more plays left to run the clock down bc they know even you force a punt they need to score and then get the ball back again

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This scenario happens on occasion, and was confronted by John Harbaugh this weekend.

The "convensional wisdom" is to kick the extra point and "make it a one score game". Then you rely on your D, hope to get it back, hope to score again, and then go for two to tie.

So.... you delay the risky play.

Problem is, then you won't know if you are going to convert that risky play, perhaps, until such time as converting it has become your only hope. Isn't it better to know SOONER? If you make it, you're set. if you miss it, you instead play to get two posessions. It's a taller task, but you know it up front. That knowledge can affect your strategy. You use your TOs earlier, for example, needing two scores.

I intensely dislike Harbaugh, but I think that he made the right decision to go for the two pointer earlier rather than later. They missed on the 2-pointer, so he is of course second-guessed.

I guess the downside is "momentum" and a sense of doom if you don't make it. The opponent will also be more geared toward milking the clock. Oddly, though, that may be an advantage rather than a disadvantage for you, if you opponent is trending away from the play style that they used to get ahead in the first place.

For this question, assume that you kicker is a good one, the weather is fine, an XP is more or less like Larry Bird shooting a free throw, and you have all of your time outs.

I posted a thread just like this a few years back, though there was a bit more theoretical clock time remaining.

This reminds me of the Monte Hall problem. It looks like it doesn’t matter, when in fact it does…many cannot get past the counterintuitive logic. They tend to overvalue team confidence and team momentum.

The gain from going for two is that you have the certainty of the result sooner, with more knowledge to prepare clock/risk management accordingly.

One scenario is obvious. You score with 7 minutes left.

Scenario 1: You miss the two point conversion. You’re down 23-14 and get the ball back with 4:30 remaining. You drive down the field, and with 2:30 remaining, you face a 4th and 7 at the opponent 25. Now the decision is obvious to kick a field goal and make it 23-17, and make every attempt to regain possession with timeouts, onside kick, etc.

Scenario 2: You kick the extra point and make it 23-15 and get the ball back with 4:30 remaining. You drive down the field, and with 2:30 remaining, you face a 4th and 7 at the opponent 25. This is a bad situation to be in. You can’t kick the field goal at this point because you must risk the 2 point play due to its reward. Assuming you convert, the clock runs down and the 2 point conversion becomes the only remaining hope. Now you miss it, and the game is over.

 

[Vindicate]

XP in the scenario.

I didn't watch the game, so maybe I'm missing some circumstances, but if you're down 15, I want to ensure that the next drive I _have_ to take regardless, is one that's worthwhile.

If you're at 7 minutes and time is of concern, then going for 2 and missing is going to really just invalidate your next drive. Even if you score 2 on the next, you'll only net 14 pts total (6+8), and still lose.

So, following that - kick the XP. The more important drive is the second one, and to render it useless by not converting on the 2pt... Well, that is promising you a loss essentially.

Making a decision that takes you out of contention of winning the game with 7 minutes left isn't a great gamble to me.

But I do understand a go for 2, just wouldn't be my choice.

 

[Ross12]

You kick the XP. I understand the merits of having more information and all that - but I tend to agree with the thought of placing more pressure on the other team, maintaining momentum for your team, and keeping more motivation. Plus, you've got to have a sampling of "gotta-have-it" 2 point plays that you should feel you're more likely than not to be able to convert. If I have such a play, I'd prefer to save it until the very end of the game - the opposing defense will be under immense pressure once they've given up yet another score and must stop your 2 point play, and you've now softened them up a bit more - they're more likely to be "gassed" by that point. Given these factors, they're more likely to make a mistake and make your 2 point play successful. But of course, there are lots of other variables here like have been discussed so each situation is a bit unique.

 

[BTTA]

The time left is a big deal here. 7:00 is a lot. I would tend to play for 3 possessions here. In that case, use the first one to score 7.

On the other hand, if I score 8, then the possibility of scoring 8 again, for the win, puts a ton of pressure on the other team that wouldn't exist. They aren't trying to just hold the wall for a tie, they are at risk of losing the game if I get aggressive and go for 2 twice, and I've proven I can do it successfully.

 

[stinkypete]

"Laugh at Ray Lewis for his obscenely high death toll?"

How obscenely high is it? One? Aaron Hernandez likely had a higher death toll.

And why are we laughing? Is murder funny?

I mean, I hate Ray Lewis as much as the next guy, but this poll escalated quickly. I mean it really got out of hand.

 

[Schmo]

Go for 2.

It only matters when you assume you don't convert (either 1st or 2nd). So theoretically, you either don't convert first and need 9 points, or kick the extra point and are down 8 when you will actually need 9 points.

Here's my question:

if you are down 8 with 2 minutes left, 4th and 10 at the 20, no timeouts... do you kick the field goal knowing you'll need an onside kick, or try to get the first down (in this scenario, you aren't going to convert the 2 point conversion anyway)? Knowing what you need is everything in that situation.

 

[bormio]

By going for one you keep the pressure on the other team. They know you are only down one score and they have to take more chances, throwing on 3rd down etc. That MAY help your defense and may save time.

 

[Biffins]

What Five Thirty Eight says:

View attachment 38782


What even a passing understanding of football SHOULD tell you:

You go for one, most of the time*, unless you are the significantly inferior team.







*Context matters, after all.

So........... (if I am reading this correctly)........ if you were down by 14 and score a TD and are down by 8 pts, this says you go for 2? as win prob jumps from 3.3 to 5.2? What?!? Why not just kick xp and make it 7 pts game?

Also if you're down by 4 after a TD, why go for 2? Why not go for 1 and make it a 3pt game?!?!

This chart makes no sense!

 

[Schmo]

What did they do in the Falcons game.

Do that.

.

28-9 and ghost missed the xp....
So you definitely go for 2

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I tend to favor putting the risk off as far as you can so I would go for 1. In my opinion you have enough time left in the game until you're sure you're on your last drive, THATS when it's time to go all out. I never understood teams who are down say 28-20 in the third quarter, get a TD, and go for two to make it 28-28. There's a whole entire quarter to go. Make it 28-27 and see how it goes rather than potentially chase 2 points the rest of the game.

 

[Jim Beankie]

The only thing I can add is given that a team gets a relatively quick stop and gets the ball back and then drives down the field for another TD, the opposing team's defense is going to be more gassed for that 2nd attempt, making it an easier attempt.

Edit: Ross12 already mentioned this.

 

[Jim Beankie]

28-9 and ghost missed the xp....
So you definitely go for 2

I forgot that they got 2 consecutive successful 2PT conversions to tie it. Wow that was a wild one.

 

[Jlaff]

If I'm the Ravens I'd ask myself - what would Ray Lewis do? When Ray had to decide between killing just one guy or two, he killed another guy.

For that reason, I'd go for 2.

 

[Wordsmyth]

No.