Gil Brandt Calls BB Best Drafter IN NFL

[TheRainMaker]

4 131 Shaq Mason - Pro bowler

4 101 Trey Flowers - Pro bowler

Neither have made the pro bowl.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

To me, it’s all about comparative success. None of these people seem to have any idea what the actual standard is when they just make a blanket statement that Belichick is the best drafter or personnel guy. I suspect he is, but I don’t know. Don’t other teams also hit on some late round picks and UDFAs? Of course. Don’t other teams uncover great FA values sometimes but usually miss when they go bargain hunting? Of course.

Belichick seems to have a lot of hits and misses. What exactly that percentage is and whether that’s good, average, or below average really isn’t clear. It’s like evaluating baseball players before advanced analysis...just no actual idea besides guesswork and selective sampling.

Of all the numerous complaints about BB's drafting I've seen here, not one has even tried to address this question, i.e. to attempt to show that other teams have done better than BB did with their own drafting opportunities. I suspect the reason for that is the complainers have tried to do that and know it can't be done.

@slam Had a thread not too long ago looking into this. I know there's stuff out there that has touched on this. 538 Might have done something. I know there's a few articles/studies though.

I know @TB_Helmet is looking into this as well as looking into others who grade prospects. Media members and w/e else we can find. So far he's looked at mine and the NFL. Specifically where the NFL drafted a prospect & where I had them graded. Once things settle down he can compare that with how others had prospects ranked/graded. Matt Miller, Lance Zeirlian, @Off The Grid , draft Twitter etc

He's been busy with work but I'm sure he'll post it when he has a chance.

Just my opinion I think Bill is very good. He's certainly not perfect. Has his weak spots and misses like everyone else but it's not easy. He's coaching, teaching and developing as a HC. Constantly trying to stay ahead of the curve with what's happening and new in the NFL world. Then he puts on his GM hat. Evaluates players futures, how much they're worth. Replacing and filling holes.
He might need more help but theirs no one that can come close to fulfilling those duties.

 

[everlong]

Neither have made the pro bowl.

I stand corrected. I could have sworn they both got voted in once. Regardless I think most would agree they're that caliber of player. Although admittedly last year Mason was not very good but in his defense he was playing though an injury on a line where having him at 80% was still 2X having one of the backups.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@slam Had a thread not too long ago looking into this. I know there's stuff out there that has touched on this. 538 Might have done something. I know there's a few articles/studies though.

I know @TB_Helmet is looking into this as well as looking into others who grade prospects. Media members and w/e else we can find. So far he's looked at mine and the NFL. Specifically where the NFL drafted a prospect & where I had them graded. Once things settle down he can compare that with how others had prospects ranked/graded. Matt Miller, Lance Zeirlian, @Off The Grid , draft Twitter etc

He's been busy with work but I'm sure he'll post it when he has a chance.

Just my opinion I think Bill is very good. He's certainly not perfect. Has his weak spots and misses like everyone else but it's not easy. He's coaching, teaching and developing as a HC. Constantly trying to stay ahead of the curve with what's happening and new in the NFL world. Then he puts on his GM hat. Evaluates players futures, how much they're worth. Replacing and filling holes.
He might need more help but theirs no one that can come close to fulfilling those duties.

Expanding a bit on this post. The "AV" value is what @slam used for his thread I believe?

Like I said above @TB_Helmet is messing around with that as well. I know he was looking into this stuff.
He also was nice enough to use it for me and NFL so far. Hopefully we'll get to see how other faired after this mess is over.

Bill has whiffed on prospects. On drafts but he's better than most imo. Imo there are some that are just better than others. We've seen it throughout history. Luck is definitely involved but it's hard to argue with consistency?
Not perfect at all but he's arguably the GOAT HC. I'd say he's very good-borderline great when it comes to evaluating contracts, bringing in FA/UDFA. And out of a 1-10 in drafting he's closer to 10 than 1 imo. 6.5-7.5? 8? Idk he's in that range for me. Again I value and appreciate the consistency. All this/was with Brady though so there is that. You can't ignore that. Still Bill is Bill. He's from the dirt and maybe the GOAT everything.
This is what, his 3rd, 4th act? Not sure how it'll end but I don't want anyone else for the job rn. And there's a decent gap before the 2nd.
Bunch of picks this year. Bunch of picks and money next year. Actually very excited to see what he'll do despite pissed Brady isn't here.

 

[Patriot Missile]

[/QUOTE]

surprised by the Bengals being 5th. They’ve had very small success. Palmer, Atkins And Chad Johnson come to mind, but can’t think of any world beaters off the top of my head.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

surprised by the Bengals being 5th. They’ve had very small success. Palmer, Atkins And Chad Johnson come to mind, but can’t think of any world beaters off the top of my head.[/QUOTE]
Justin Smith, Whitworth, William Jackson, TJ Houz, J Gresham, Dunlap... They've done ok there. Just been gods awful in coaching & management.

Plus this is from the last 20 years. Cinci had some pretty talented teams early 2000's. By 2007-2008 they were the ultimate "watch out if they put it together team". Not quite like the Chargers but a tier below in that regard.

 

[Kasmir]

@slam Had a thread not too long ago looking into this. I know there's stuff out there that has touched on this. 538 Might have done something. I know there's a few articles/studies though.

I know @TB_Helmet is looking into this as well as looking into others who grade prospects. Media members and w/e else we can find. So far he's looked at mine and the NFL. Specifically where the NFL drafted a prospect & where I had them graded. Once things settle down he can compare that with how others had prospects ranked/graded. Matt Miller, Lance Zeirlian, @Off The Grid , draft Twitter etc

He's been busy with work but I'm sure he'll post it when he has a chance.

Just my opinion I think Bill is very good. He's certainly not perfect. Has his weak spots and misses like everyone else but it's not easy. He's coaching, teaching and developing as a HC. Constantly trying to stay ahead of the curve with what's happening and new in the NFL world. Then he puts on his GM hat. Evaluates players futures, how much they're worth. Replacing and filling holes.
He might need more help but theirs no one that can come close to fulfilling those duties.

Several folks have done these comparative studies over the past few years, and they've always shown that BB has done well drafting, always near the top. The remarkable thing is that none of his critics have done this. I'm sure they've tried and failed and not said anything.

How about it BB drafting bashers? Can't you even contrive something that shows BB is bad at drafting vs his peers? How about just for wide receivers? Or 2nd round picks? Show something supports your claims that BB the GM sucks.

 

[Kasmir]

Expanding a bit on this post. The "AV" value is what @slam used for his thread I believe?

Like I said above @TB_Helmet is messing around with that as well. I know he was looking into this stuff.
He also was nice enough to use it for me and NFL so far. Hopefully we'll get to see how other faired after this mess is over.

Bill has whiffed on prospects. On drafts but he's better than most imo. Imo there are some that are just better than others. We've seen it throughout history. Luck is definitely involved but it's hard to argue with consistency?
Not perfect at all but he's arguably the GOAT HC. I'd say he's very good-borderline great when it comes to evaluating contracts, bringing in FA/UDFA. And out of a 1-10 in drafting he's closer to 10 than 1 imo. 6.5-7.5? 8? Idk he's in that range for me. Again I value and appreciate the consistency. All this/was with Brady though so there is that. You can't ignore that. Still Bill is Bill. He's from the dirt and maybe the GOAT everything.
This is what, his 3rd, 4th act? Not sure how it'll end but I don't want anyone else for the job rn. And there's a decent gap before the 2nd.
Bunch of picks this year. Bunch of picks and money next year. Actually very excited to see what he'll do despite pissed Brady isn't here.

And that study doesn't attempt to weight for draft position. The Pats have had fewer opportunities than anyone because of their historically low draft positions, yet are near the top in value drafted. A weighted study would even more dramatically show how well BB has done. So would adding in free agent signings.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Several folks have done these comparative studies over the past few years, and they've always shown that BB has done well drafting, always near the top. The remarkable thing is that none of his critics have done this. I'm sure they've tried and failed and not said anything.

How about it BB drafting bashers? Can't you even contrive something that shows BB is bad at drafting vs his peers? How about just for wide receivers? Or 2nd round picks? Show something supports your claims that BB the GM sucks.

Yeah I hear this. I think part of it is we're so close to it so it's always there. A look at some of Ozzie Newsome's draft will have you scratching your head. Same with others.

Depending on the # of picks. Where they are. 2017 is a great example of this. I think getting 2-3 solid players that contribute every week is a very good draft. Anything after 3 players is great or borderline great.

Saints have done an amazing job lately. CGJ in the 4th, McCoy 2nd, Clapp 7th, Lattimore, Thomas, Ramczyk, Peat, Davenport, Rankins, Onyemata 4th, Von Bell, Kamara, Hendrickson, Marcus Williams.

Not bad at all after Rd 1.

 

[slam]

Here's the thread I started that @BaconGrundleCandy mentioned:

Team Draft Assessment Challenge for the Decade

Pats were #2 this decade behind Seattle in counting AV. Plenty of caveats and explanations but interesting nonetheless. Read the thread!

 

[RobertWeathers]

PatsPulpit just did a good analysis.

The BB-Sucks-at-Drafting crowd won't like it but the truth hurts.

The Patriots are better at drafting than you may think - Pats Pulpit

 

[Bill Lee]

6 208 Kamu Grugier-Hill - Nothing

KGH started 10 games in '18 and 6 in '19 for PHL before being injured, so at least he reached 'spot starter' status, IMO.

 

[mgteich]

And that study doesn't attempt to weight for draft position. The Pats have had fewer opportunities than anyone because of their historically low draft positions, yet are near the top in value drafted. A weighted study would even more dramatically show how well BB has done. So would adding in free agent signings.

A weighted study would be better. I would note that while we draft late in each round, Belichick usually has more than his "share" of the picks, having traded for picks during and before each draft. He trades players for picks, and actively tries to get comp picks.

 

[TheRainMaker]

PatsPulpit just did a good analysis.

The BB-Sucks-at-Drafting crowd won't like it but the truth hurts.

The Patriots are better at drafting than you may think - Pats Pulpit

They lost me at INDY taking the top spot.

The examples the chose for 2005, 2015, and 2016 weren't very convincing.

I find it funny they are talking about as they are aware that there are fans that think BB isn't that great at drafting.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They lost me at INDY taking the top spot.

The examples the chose for 2005, 2015, and 2016 weren't very convincing.

I find it funny they are talking about as they are aware that there are fans that think BB isn't that great at drafting.

They read this board.

 

[TheRainMaker]

They read this board.

That's funny.

I just noticed GB at #2? No way!

 

[Kasmir]

PatsPulpit just did a good analysis.

The BB-Sucks-at-Drafting crowd won't like it but the truth hurts.

The Patriots are better at drafting than you may think - Pats Pulpit

It's year by year and weighted as well; I assume they use one of the draft position value charts (2020 NFL Trade Value Chart) for the investment made and AV (Approximate Value » Pro-football-reference.com blog) for the value achieved . Good effort.

The comments are amusing, as the BB bashers struggle to discredit it, still serving up the same memes -- "BB sucks in the 2nd round", "BB can't draft WR's", etc -- all without any analysis.

 

[Kdo5]

Bill is hit or miss with his drafts. His recent drafts have been nothing to write home about and maybe he should avoid using high round picks on offensive weapons. Sony Maroney is a fourth rounder at best. We'll see about N'Keal Harry.

All GM's make head scratching decisions, Bill included (hello Jordan Richards). I don't know where he should be judged among current GM's but I wouldn't say he is the best, definitely not in recent years.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Good point, this is like the DYAR vs DVOA difference at Football Outsiders: you can measure the absolute impa


It's year by year and weighted as well; I assume they use one of the draft position value charts (2020 NFL Trade Value Chart) for the investment made and AV (Approximate Value » Pro-football-reference.com blog) for the value achieved . Good effort.

The comments are amusing, as the BB bashers struggle to discredit it, still serving up the same memes -- "BB sucks in the 2nd round", "BB can't draft WR's", etc -- all without any analysis.

I have I feeling any way you slice it. W/e criteria, metrics you're using. Bill will be among the top 3-5-10.

 

[Kasmir]

Bill is hit or miss with his drafts. His recent drafts have been nothing to write home about and maybe he should avoid using high round picks on offensive weapons. Sony Maroney is a fourth rounder at best. We'll see about N'Keal Harry.

All GM's make head scratching decisions, Bill included (hello Jordan Richards). I don't know where he should be judged among current GM's but I wouldn't say he is the best, definitely not in recent years.

As you say, all GM's make draft decisions that look foolish in retrospect. But how do you know if BB has been better or worse than average if you don't do some kind of objective analysis?

Every analysis I've ever seen has BB in the top quartile vs other GM's. Why should we believe your opinion instead?