#1 draft priority OLB

[Urgent]

Using your data set, and recoding Pro-Bowler, former Pro-Bowler and Pro-Bowl reserve into a single category of "high performing OLB", we have 5 high performing OLB, 4 additional starters, 4 Busts or Super Busts, and two incompletes from the 2010 draft. Aggregating high performing OLB and additional starters into a positive draft pick, esp. as half the starters are rookies, and excluding the two rookie incompletes, that gives us 9 starters or better for 4 busts. a 67% or better hit rate for starter or better in the first two rounds is an excellent draft hit rate.

I don't think your data set actually supports your argument that it is better to bring in cheap quantity rather than take the risk on high end quality.

The draft is a probabilistic enterprise. No one is guaranteed to make it, although if your scouting and coaching system is competent or better, some players are more likely to make it than others. If the scouting system of a team indicates that Player X is a high probability impact OLB, then for all means, take that player in the first two rounds.

Historically, LB has been one of the highest hit-rate positions in the early draft. WR is about the lowest hit-rate.

 

[captain stone]

:confused2:

I noticed that our friend Tubby Banta-Cain't whiffed on yet another sack opportunity,
after he chased PayaTon from behind in the 2nd qtr during the Clots' first TD drive.

I know that our defense is already young, but damned if we still don't need to find
another CB, a Pass-Rusher, an athletic DE, and a FS who actually knows how to tackle.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

DE/DT:

Guys who seem likely to stick around:
* T. Warren - has been a solid runstopper, very good 2-gap guy, but who knows if he'll come back as good and will be entering his 9th season (?!)
* Deaderick - not nearly as consistent as T. Warren yet , but maybe a bit more dynamic; showing good promise, anyway
* Ron Brace - obviously a slow development curve, but Ahtyba Rubin looked kinda "bust-ish" until this year (his 3rd)
* Mike Wright - not a "classic" anything, but can do a lot of different things fairly well; solid player who increases the range of tactical options
* Myron Pryor - shorter than Wright, but seems like similar competencies, at least from interior spots, good in 4-man fronts
* Wilfork - duh

So, we have a STUD NT (Wilfork) and possibly his backup (Brace), possibly one solid (aging) 2-gap DE (T.Warren) and possibly his replacement (Deaderick). The rest of the guys seem like pretty good reserves who can play a variety of roles and provide lots of extra tactical options. But we're missing a STUD DE - the type of player who commands enough blocking attention that he makes the pass-rush of merely competent OLBs a threat.

* G. Warren - he's been reasonably competent as far as I can tell, a good professional, but he feels like a one-tear rental of a guy in the twilight (or late afternoon) of his career. Not much upside.

Guys I haven't seen enough of (personally) to evaluate. Maybe means there's not much there to see. At this point, I'm not counting on them to last beyond 2011 Camp.
* Kyle Love
* Darryl Richard
* Kade Weston
* Lorenzo Washington.

Whether or not the above five guys (including G. Warren) are ultimately gone or not for 2011 depends not only on how they develop, but on whether or not we get someone who is (or is likely to be) significantly better.
------------------

OLB:

* TBC - A bit more competent (IMO) at run defense, pass defense and pass-rush than most people seem to give him credit for, but definitely not the level of competence or consistency that I'd like to see in a #1 guy. An okay reserve for now, but he'll also be entering his 9th season in 2011 (yeah, I know, already?!), so we'll be needing another competent reserve guy soon anyway.
* Cunningham - Still gaps in his game, but already improved over TBC. If he keeps developing at this pace, I'm good with him being one of the #1s at least for 2011.
* Ninkovich - I admire the way he appears to be steadily improving his game in only his first year really playing significant snaps at the position. Solid player; not often outstanding but not often unreliable, either, and correcting his mistakes as he goes. Not sure he has the upside to become a true long term #1, but he's already exceeded anything Pierre Woods ever did for us and seems more consistent than TBC. I think he'll be at least an extremely valuable #1a for a few years.
* Crable - Hell, IDK. So far, he seems to have only been deployed as a pass-rush specialist and (IMO) he's been not particularly stellar (though he's gotten close to home a few times). Not very good in either run defense or coverage, as afar as I've been able to see. At this point, I'm not counting on him lasting beyond 2011 Camp since it seems like it should be relatively easy to do better.

So, we have one possibly very good #1 (Cunningham), one possibly very good #1a (Ninkovich), one adequate-but-aging reserve (TBC) and, well, Crable. Seems like we need to try for another #1 guy (a solid run-defender who also has serious pass-rush potential and isn't a liability in coverage) and another competent reserve guy (who's good against the run and in coverage with a competent rush).
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So, BOTTOM LINE for me is, we need a STUD 3-4 DE (1st-round, probably), a VERY GOOD 3-4 OLB/RUSHER (early round, anyway) and a late-round OLB/ potentially competent reserve.

Sorry for coming so late to the party - Excellent summary of the current state of the DE's vs OLB's. It really jumps out how lacking NEP's are in the OLB position. Both in top end talent as well as quality depth. Yes, there is marginal starters and some hope of a future for Cunningham - but seriously, do the opposition even have to scheme to neutralize our OLB's? This summary above really does show justification for the threads subject line.

I would love the next Seymore in the draft and there is some justification for spending a high pick on a DE. But when you already have on DL a Pro Bowler (resigned), several quality starters AND also some promising youngers already on the roster - the NEED of more help on the DL doesn't nearly match the need of quality help our OLB HAS to receive to be a dominant defense.

In a 3-4 isn't it the linebackers that should be making the plays? TBC is a nine year vet - no telling how much longer he can /will play. He is a 7th rounder and he has peaked / probably on the downside. Cunningham up and coming. The rest are marginal starters with limited upside.

I would go so far as to say we need one of our first three picks (latest Carolina's) AND a mid round pick to boot spent on OLB. With 2 picks gives better chance one of them can contribute in their first year (as sometimes takes a year to adapt if they are small DE conversions to 3-4 OLB ). And picking 2 will not be overkill as the 2nd player chosen -say the mid rounder- should be able to beat out UFA Pierre Woods for a 53 man roster spot (more if roster expands due to 18 game schedule).

No other position in NEP defense is so thin in depth and missing in top end talent than OLB.

 

[Clonamery]

Thought you were still in stir, they have work release from solitary now?

Oh I am a glass half full guy and there are just so many "fans" that want failure for this team or revel in their own lack of self-realization (ie, Capt. Friendly Fire).

If Kerrigan is still at our Oakland pick, all things being equal, I'd snatch him in a heartbeat. He makes plays. What's not to like:

All-America and Postseason Awards Candidate Ryan Kerrigan

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

Oh I am a glass half full guy and there are just so many "fans" that want failure for this team or revel in their own lack of self-realization (ie, Capt. Friendly Fire).

If Kerrigan is still at our Oakland pick, all things being equal, I'd snatch him in a heartbeat. He makes plays. What's not to like:

All-America and Postseason Awards Candidate Ryan Kerrigan

What's not to like is that he might not look as good going backwards as he does going forwards. I like him too, but I don't think it will be worth trading up to get him.

 

[jsull87]

I think alot of us need to be a little less pessimistic with our assesments of OLB candidates.

Who thought cunningham would look as good as he has? We could have said exactly the same things (how will he look in coverage/standing up e.t.c) about him but he has worked out.

I trust the scouts to make the best OLB move with the value at their pick. But i do believe one more is needed. my hopes are Quinn (with our 1st 1st) or beale with carolina's pick. Anyone else you can think of around that range i am fine with too.

I still want to find a way to pick clayborne tho... i am really a big fan of his

 

[patchick]

Historically, LB has been one of the highest hit-rate positions in the early draft. WR is about the lowest hit-rate.

First-round ILBs & MLBs in particular seem very reliable. But college DEs drafted high as projections to 3-4 OLB have been much shakier. I compiled a list at one point, and it's absolutely riddled with busts.

 

[DaBruinz]

What's not to like is that he might not look as good going backwards as he does going forwards. I like him too, but I don't think it will be worth trading up to get him.

Who said anything about trading up for Kerrigan? Heck, the guy you quoted was talking about taking him with the Oakland pick.. One that looks to be between the 10 and 18 range.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Oh I am a glass half full guy and there are just so many "fans" that want failure for this team or revel in their own lack of self-realization (ie, Capt. Friendly Fire).

If Kerrigan is still at our Oakland pick, all things being equal, I'd snatch him in a heartbeat. He makes plays. What's not to like:

All-America and Postseason Awards Candidate Ryan Kerrigan

Capt. Downer sure does come across as artillery, I wonder if he was the template for Mulligan in Kelly's Heroes.

I think Kerrigan is going to be pushed towards the bottom of the first round and I'd rather consider him there then with the Oakland pick, assuming it has begun it's climb back to the Top 10. Right now with that first pick I'm leaning toward one of three DL prospects.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

What's not to like is that he might not look as good going backwards as he does going forwards. I like him too, but I don't think it will be worth trading up to get him.

Agreed, that transition to OLB is a tricky one, the one thing he has in his favor is his work ethic and his ability to find the ball.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I noticed that our friend Tubby Banta-Cain't whiffed on yet another sack opportunity,
after he chased PayaTon from behind in the 2nd qtr during the Clots' first TD drive.

I know that our defense is already young, but damned if we still don't need to find
another CB, a Pass-Rusher, an athletic DE, and a FS who actually knows how to tackle.

Capt., I love ya man, but you've got to lay off the coffee and meth, you're too tense. Peyton Manning has escaped the pass rush of players more accomplished than TBC. I'm pleased with TBC and the front seven's pressure against Indy and Pit, they are making things happen just as the secondary is starting to click in their role, sucks to be an 8-2 team at this point in the season, but we must bear up as fans in a rebuilding year.

 

[Off The Grid]

Sucks to be an 8-2 team at this point in the season, but we must bear up as fans in a rebuilding year.

Heh!! NICE.

 

[cstjohn17]

Whether the pass rush is improved via an OLB or DE it needs to improve. After watching the Detriot game, the Pats can stop the run pretty well but their QB pressure is awful.