#1 draft priority OLB

[MaineMan]

If we draft Kerrigan #1, is TBC even on the team next year?

It may partly depend on what Crable does the rest of this season. So far, he looks easily cuttable as the "low man" with considerable distance between him and Ninkovich. The other side of it is - like it or not, TBC is our ONLY veteran OLB (and has a ton of experience in BB's scheme) and it would benefit any rookie, no matter what his pedigree, to have that sort of presence on the field with him.

Probably a bit more than 50/50 that BB drafts an OLB at some point in 2011, but I wouldn't put any money on it being Kerrigan. Whatever way it falls, I'm thinking that the likely depth chart would be (at least at first):

-- Cunningham
- TBC - Ninkovich
-- The new guy

With Crable on the outside looking in.

 

[captain stone]

Well, because Bill took a stupid pill and needlessly replaced Crable with the useless waste of oxygen Putrid Woods, OLB has - again - become a top-100 priority...This is a recording.

 

[MaineMan]

Well, because Bill took a stupid pill and needlessly replaced Crable with the useless waste of oxygen Putrid Woods, OLB has - again - become a top-100 priority...This is a recording.

It always WAS a Top 100 priority for me - unless we can snag a guy in the 4th that everyone else has ignored (like Winterswyck, except that people aren't ignoring him anymore). Crable going now vs the end of the season makes no difference to that, IMO. And he may yet return to the P/S. I mean, he's already 24 hours past clearing waivers and not so much as a nibble on him that I've heard about.

In terms of run defense, Woods is probably better than Crable at staying home when it's appropriate and Woods' coverage is certainly no worse than Crable's. WRT the pass rush, Crable was kind of meh, anyway, and a lot of the effective pressure we've been generating lately has been coming from the middle of the D-line. So, to some extent, Crable was extraneous - at least no less so than Woods is likely to be.

But the big reason for bringing back Woods in particular is probably special teams, something Crable has never really contributed to. Return coverage hasn't been great recently, AND both starting CBs are very high on the list of ST tackles (which is a risky thing) along with Edelman and Woodhead. Woods improves return coverage while maybe relieving Edelman, Woody, Arrington and McCourty of some of their ST work.

Overall, I'd say it was a good move.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Overall, I'd say it was a good move.

As long as Capt. Downer is against it, that was a given.

 

[SirApropos]

With Crable being cut once again this week the outcry for the need to select a OLB in the first couple of rounds in 2011 will be a hot topic. History shows us that while you can occasionally strike gold (Terrell Suggs, 2003), you are more than likely to get something resembling tin (vernon Gholston). Here's a list of the 15 or so OLB/DE prospects selected in the first couple of rounds from 2005-2010. You may occasionally get a starter or even a pro bowler but it would be safer to pick someone in a later round so that if you whiff it doesn't look so bad (Sergio Kindle).


2005
DeMarcus Ware – Round 1 – Dallas – Pro Bowler
Shawn Merriman – Round 1 – San Diego – Former Pro Bowler now with the Bills

2006
Manny Lawson – Round 1 – San Fran – Starter

2007
Jarvis Moss – Round 1 – Denver – Free Agent Bust
Anthony Spencer – Round 1 – Dallas – Starter after 2 years
LaMarr Woodley – Round 2 – Pittsburgh – Pro Bowler

2008
Vernon Gholston – Round 1 – NY Jets – Super Bust

2009
Brian Orakpo – Round 1 – Washington – Pro Bowl Reserve
Clay Matthews – Round 1 – Green Bay – Pro Bowl Reserve
David Veikune – Round 2 – Cleveland – Waived now with Denver
Cody Brown – Round 2 – Arizona – Waived now on Jets Practice Squad

2010
Koa Misi – Round 2 – Miami – Starter
Sergio Kindle – Round 2 – Non Football Injured Reserve
Jermaine Cunningham – Round 2 – New England – Starter
Jason Worilds – Round 2 – Pittsburgh – Backup

The situation this year with New England was unique since they had three 2nd round picks and could afford a whiff. So far it's been promising though.

I'm not trying to start another "We should have picked Clay Matthews argument" just showing History is against getting a top flight OLB in the first round and that those picks should be used on a three down player rather than a sub rusher. There are James Harrison's and Cameron Wake's out there too.

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

Well, because Bill took a stupid pill and needlessly replaced Crable with the useless waste of oxygen Putrid Woods, OLB has - again - become a top-100 priority...This is a recording.

Drafting an OLB in the top 100 is a priority, whether it will be Woods or Crable who warms the bench for them.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It always WAS a Top 100 priority for me - unless we can snag a guy in the 4th that everyone else has ignored (like Winterswyck, except that people aren't ignoring him anymore). Crable going now vs the end of the season makes no difference to that, IMO. And he may yet return to the P/S. I mean, he's already 24 hours past clearing waivers and not so much as a nibble on him that I've heard about.

In terms of run defense, Woods is probably better than Crable at staying home when it's appropriate and Woods' coverage is certainly no worse than Crable's. WRT the pass rush, Crable was kind of meh, anyway, and a lot of the effective pressure we've been generating lately has been coming from the middle of the D-line. So, to some extent, Crable was extraneous - at least no less so than Woods is likely to be.

But the big reason for bringing back Woods in particular is probably special teams, something Crable has never really contributed to. Return coverage hasn't been great recently, AND both starting CBs are very high on the list of ST tackles (which is a risky thing) along with Edelman and Woodhead. Woods improves return coverage while maybe relieving Edelman, Woody, Arrington and McCourty of some of their ST work.

Overall, I'd say it was a good move.

I think Crable made a huge error while on ST's and because of that, the ST coach got him capped. Hence the reason Woods is back.

However if there was ever a draft to go get a 3-4 OLB in the first round, this is that draft.

I still stand by Kerrigan as my choice. He plays the run and is a pass rushing demon off the edge and projects as a core ST player as well.

 

[Clonamery]

I still stand by Kerrigan as my choice. He plays the run and is a pass rushing demon off the edge and projects as a core ST player as well.

Right now, how far up would you go if the Oakland pick has us at 15+? 10-15 range. Higher? 7-10?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Right now, how far up would you go if the Oakland pick has us at 15+? 10-15 range. Higher? 7-10?

Thought you were still in stir, they have work release from solitary now?

 

[DaBruinz]

Right now, how far up would you go if the Oakland pick has us at 15+? 10-15 range. Higher? 7-10?

You seem pretty sure that Kerrigan won't last down to the 15 range.. Depending on where you look, Kerrigan is in the 10-15 range now because of the number of good 4-3 DE prospects. And this is without any Juniors having declared that could bump him down.

I think there is a good chance that he could be there to be had with the Oakland pick. Whether or not the Pats go with him is another story. BB does have a history of liking Purdue players. Also, several of the collegiate coaches from BB's coaching tree play Purdue on a pretty regular basis. So, the Pats will have some good insight on Kerrigan. The bigger question will be the intangibles that we never hear about.. Film room study with BB. His interview. etc.

One question.. Does Kerrigan play LDE or RDE currently?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You seem pretty sure that Kerrigan won't last down to the 15 range.. Depending on where you look, Kerrigan is in the 10-15 range now because of the number of good 4-3 DE prospects. And this is without any Juniors having declared that could bump him down.

I think there is a good chance that he could be there to be had with the Oakland pick. Whether or not the Pats go with him is another story. BB does have a history of liking Purdue players. Also, several of the collegiate coaches from BB's coaching tree play Purdue on a pretty regular basis. So, the Pats will have some good insight on Kerrigan. The bigger question will be the intangibles that we never hear about.. Film room study with BB. His interview. etc.

One question.. Does Kerrigan play LDE or RDE currently?

Kerrigan moves around.

 

[D-Money]

I like Kerrigan as well but i can see BB taking Cameron Heyward.My problem with Heyward is his lack of desire at times.He is very athletic.

 

[BelichickFan]

You seem pretty sure that Kerrigan won't last down to the 15 range.. Depending on where you look, Kerrigan is in the 10-15 range now because of the number of good 4-3 DE prospects. And this is without any Juniors having declared that could bump him down.

I expect us to have the #13 pick unless the Raiders get overly hot or cold the rest of the way. That gives us a very good shot at Kerrigan without moving up if Bill likes him.

I kind of expect to trade down, though, it's too early to say this but after Luck (if he comes out), the next group of QB, Mallett, Locker, maybe Newton, will likely be going in this range so if everything plays out well at least one of these high upside QB will be sitting there for us to take bids on.

 

[DaBruinz]

I like Kerrigan as well but i can see BB taking Cameron Heyward.My problem with Heyward is his lack of desire at times.He is very athletic.

If Heyward lacks desire/motivation, then the what is the true likelihood of BB taking him?

 

[DaBruinz]

Kerrigan moves around.

That is good..

 

[D-Money]

He is similiar to a young Richard Seymour.

 

[DaBruinz]

He is similiar to a young Richard Seymour.

Just 40 lbs lighter....

 

[UofApatsfan]

With Crable being cut once again this week the outcry for the need to select a OLB in the first couple of rounds in 2011 will be a hot topic. History shows us that while you can occasionally strike gold (Terrell Suggs, 2003), you are more than likely to get something resembling tin (vernon Gholston). Here's a list of the 15 or so OLB/DE prospects selected in the first couple of rounds from 2005-2010. You may occasionally get a starter or even a pro bowler but it would be safer to pick someone in a later round so that if you whiff it doesn't look so bad (Sergio Kindle).


2005
DeMarcus Ware – Round 1 – Dallas – Pro Bowler
Shawn Merriman – Round 1 – San Diego – Former Pro Bowler now with the Bills

2006
Manny Lawson – Round 1 – San Fran – Starter

2007
Jarvis Moss – Round 1 – Denver – Free Agent Bust
Anthony Spencer – Round 1 – Dallas – Starter after 2 years
LaMarr Woodley – Round 2 – Pittsburgh – Pro Bowler

2008
Vernon Gholston – Round 1 – NY Jets – Super Bust

2009
Brian Orakpo – Round 1 – Washington – Pro Bowl Reserve
Clay Matthews – Round 1 – Green Bay – Pro Bowl Reserve
David Veikune – Round 2 – Cleveland – Waived now with Denver
Cody Brown – Round 2 – Arizona – Waived now on Jets Practice Squad

2010
Koa Misi – Round 2 – Miami – Starter
Sergio Kindle – Round 2 – Non Football Injured Reserve
Jermaine Cunningham – Round 2 – New England – Starter
Jason Worilds – Round 2 – Pittsburgh – Backup

The situation this year with New England was unique since they had three 2nd round picks and could afford a whiff. So far it's been promising though.

I'm not trying to start another "We should have picked Clay Matthews argument" just showing History is against getting a top flight OLB in the first round and that those picks should be used on a three down player rather than a sub rusher. There are James Harrison's and Cameron Wake's out there too.

Well done, I never realized the bust rate at that position. I'm as guilty as anyone of speculating about which highly ranked OLB/DE prospect BB might take, but the truth is it's highly improbable he does that. Your post and BB's drafting history indicate the chances of that are small.

It's not like he took Cunningham particularly high (53), and it's not like Cunningham was a flashy prospect on everyone's radar, but he must have had to be very impressed with him during his private workouts with Florida players to take a DE/OLB with a pick that high. He's never drafted one so high before, so it makes sense Cunningham is picking up the system and contributing this year more than almost anyone could have expected, especially after a preseason injury. The success of the OLBs largely depends on how good the D-line is, so until the D-line is squared away and they have a Seymour-like presence next to Wilfork, don't expect BB to be reaching on any OLBs.

 

[fester]

Using your data set, and recoding Pro-Bowler, former Pro-Bowler and Pro-Bowl reserve into a single category of "high performing OLB", we have 5 high performing OLB, 4 additional starters, 4 Busts or Super Busts, and two incompletes from the 2010 draft. Aggregating high performing OLB and additional starters into a positive draft pick, esp. as half the starters are rookies, and excluding the two rookie incompletes, that gives us 9 starters or better for 4 busts. a 67% or better hit rate for starter or better in the first two rounds is an excellent draft hit rate.

I don't think your data set actually supports your argument that it is better to bring in cheap quantity rather than take the risk on high end quality.

The draft is a probabilistic enterprise. No one is guaranteed to make it, although if your scouting and coaching system is competent or better, some players are more likely to make it than others. If the scouting system of a team indicates that Player X is a high probability impact OLB, then for all means, take that player in the first two rounds.

Here's a list of the 15 or so OLB/DE prospects selected in the first couple of rounds from 2005-2010. You may occasionally get a starter or even a pro bowler but it would be safer to pick someone in a later round so that if you whiff it doesn't look so bad...


2005
DeMarcus Ware – Round 1 – Dallas – Pro Bowler
Shawn Merriman – Round 1 – San Diego – Former Pro Bowler now with the Bills

2006
Manny Lawson – Round 1 – San Fran – Starter

2007
Jarvis Moss – Round 1 – Denver – Free Agent Bust
Anthony Spencer – Round 1 – Dallas – Starter after 2 years
LaMarr Woodley – Round 2 – Pittsburgh – Pro Bowler

2008
Vernon Gholston – Round 1 – NY Jets – Super Bust

2009
Brian Orakpo – Round 1 – Washington – Pro Bowl Reserve
Clay Matthews – Round 1 – Green Bay – Pro Bowl Reserve
David Veikune – Round 2 – Cleveland – Waived now with Denver
Cody Brown – Round 2 – Arizona – Waived now on Jets Practice Squad

2010
Koa Misi – Round 2 – Miami – Starter
Sergio Kindle – Round 2 – Non Football Injured Reserve
Jermaine Cunningham – Round 2 – New England – Starter
Jason Worilds – Round 2 – Pittsburgh – Backup

The situation this year with New England was unique since they had three 2nd round picks and could afford a whiff. So far it's been promising though.

I'm not trying to start another "We should have picked Clay Matthews argument" just showing History is against getting a top flight OLB in the first round and that those picks should be used on a three down player rather than a sub rusher. There are James Harrison's and Cameron Wake's out there too.

 

[reflexblue]

Using your data set, and recoding Pro-Bowler, former Pro-Bowler and Pro-Bowl reserve into a single category of "high performing OLB", we have 5 high performing OLB, 4 additional starters, 4 Busts or Super Busts, and two incompletes from the 2010 draft. Aggregating high performing OLB and additional starters into a positive draft pick, esp. as half the starters are rookies, and excluding the two rookie incompletes, that gives us 9 starters or better for 4 busts. a 67% or better hit rate for starter or better in the first two rounds is an excellent draft hit rate.

I don't think your data set actually supports your argument that it is better to bring in cheap quantity rather than take the risk on high end quality.

The draft is a probabilistic enterprise. No one is guaranteed to make it, although if your scouting and coaching system is competent or better, some players are more likely to make it than others. If the scouting system of a team indicates that Player X is a high probability impact OLB, then for all means, take that player in the first two rounds.

It seems to me some teams are good at picking certain positions ie the Steelers LB the Colts, receivers the Ravens, LB's. BB is good at picking D-lineman.