#1 draft priority OLB

[SteveBelichick]

The problem with your analysis is that there is only one stud 3-4 DE in this draft (Dareus) and he will be gone long before we draft.

I'd add Farley to this very exclusive list. But it's very likely he'll also be gone by the Raiders' pick.
So I don't see any possible 3-4 DE worth spending a 1rst rounder on. Maybe Cameron Heyward, if Belichick thinks he can teach the kid to pass rush.

 

[MaineMan]

Well, I'm thinking that a guy doesn't necessarily need to be a full-fledged stud 3-4 DE in college in order to rise to that level lining up next to Wilfork. The right size guy with very good smarts and athleticism who holds his own consistently and occasionally disrupts the backfield while lining up next to sub-optimal linemates might turn into that stud.

 

[SteveBelichick]

Well, I'm thinking that a guy doesn't necessarily need to be a full-fledged stud 3-4 DE in college in order to rise to that level lining up next to Wilfork. The right size guy with very good smarts and athleticism who holds his own consistently and occasionally disrupts the backfield while lining up next to sub-optimal linemates might turn into that stud.

It sounds like you're talking about Cameron Heyward with your description :singing:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The problem with your analysis is that there is only one stud 3-4 DE in this draft (Dareus) and he will be gone long before we draft. Will BB trade up for him? Very unlikely to say the least.

Fortunately however there are tons of potential stud 3-4 OLBs and from what I have seen this year, Kerrigan looks to be the best. The combine will tell us if he can run a 4.6, how strong he is and if he can change direction. If he does well there, that should seal the deal as far as I am concerned.

Either way, we need a sack threat off the edge that can also play the run in order to be an effective 3rd down defense.

When I use the standard of Richard Seymour/Ty Warren to measure potential 3-4 DEs there are only a handful of youngsters who might, in time, measure up. For now I like Nick Fairley (Auburn) and Stephen Paea (Oregon State).

Marcell Dareus is on my short list of players who might make the grade, I just haven't seen him enough. The same for J.J. Watt (Jr., Wisconsin), Jarvis Jenkins (Clemson), and Phil Taylor (Baylor). If Jerrell Powe makes a commitment to conditioning, I can see him as a target.

I like Billy Winn (Boise State) and Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati), but I doubt they get enough momentum to come out early. You've seen more of Quinton Coples (North Carolina) than I have, it seemed like he might be a kid to watch next season? Muhammad Wilkerson (Jr., Temple) is a player I suspect is on the NE scouting radar.

Late round kids whom I think could be competitive at the back of the roster:
Karl Klug (Iowa)
Brandon Bair (Oregon)
Chris Neild (West Virginia)

I thought Lolomana Mikaele (Arizona), had a heck of a game against Iowa's O-line, he might be a UDFA value.

 

[captain stone]

I'm not sure why all the ill-will towards Brace. After Wilfork, he's been our best D-lineman against the run, and his rate of improvement is remarkable. So he's 20 lbs heavier than a traditional 3-4 DE. It doesn't seem to effect him that much, and if he could easily lose 15 lbs over the offseason and keep his strength.

I think at this point, I'm more worried about the offensive line, but I'd also probably go with an impact DE if available with our first pick.

I prefer my DEs (even 3-4 DEs) more athletic than Brace, the slowest man at any position
at the '09 combine.
Hoping that the loss of even a dozen+ lbs would bring more explosion & chase-down ability
is prob. hoping for too much.
Brace just seems, IMHO, to be not much more than a backup NT (or a 4-3 DT)
on a SB-caliber defense.

I do, however, also share your concerns with the OL, esp. at C & LT
(and LG, if Mankins signs elsewhere).

 

[captain stone]

I have little doubt NE can bolster the depth and competition at OLB if they feel it necessary, for now it's pleasant to watch the development of Cunningham and Ninkovich, to see Crable active on the field, and read all the carping over Banta-Cain.

Don't you feel that some of the carping over TBC is justified?

 

[captain stone]

DE/DT:

Guys who seem likely to stick around:
* T. Warren - has been a solid runstopper, very good 2-gap guy, but who knows if he'll come back as good and will be entering his 9th season (?!)
* Deaderick - not nearly as consistent as T. Warren yet , but maybe a bit more dynamic; showing good promise, anyway
* Ron Brace - obviously a slow development curve, but Ahtyba Rubin looked kinda "bust-ish" until this year (his 3rd)
* Mike Wright - not a "classic" anything, but can do a lot of different things fairly well; solid player who increases the range of tactical options
* Myron Pryor - shorter than Wright, but seems like similar competencies, at least from interior spots, good in 4-man fronts
* Wilfork - duh

So, we have a STUD NT (Wilfork) and possibly his backup (Brace), possibly one solid (aging) 2-gap DE (T.Warren) and possibly his replacement (Deaderick). The rest of the guys seem like pretty good reserves who can play a variety of roles and provide lots of extra tactical options. But we're missing a STUD DE - the type of player who commands enough blocking attention that he makes the pass-rush of merely competent OLBs a threat.

* G. Warren - he's been reasonably competent as far as I can tell, a good professional, but he feels like a one-tear rental of a guy in the twilight (or late afternoon) of his career. Not much upside.

Guys I haven't seen enough of (personally) to evaluate. Maybe means there's not much there to see. At this point, I'm not counting on them to last beyond 2011 Camp.
* Kyle Love
* Darryl Richard
* Kade Weston
* Lorenzo Washington.

Whether or not the above five guys (including G. Warren) are ultimately gone or not for 2011 depends not only on how they develop, but on whether or not we get someone who is (or is likely to be) significantly better.
------------------

OLB:

* TBC - A bit more competent (IMO) at run defense, pass defense and pass-rush than most people seem to give him credit for, but definitely not the level of competence or consistency that I'd like to see in a #1 guy. An okay reserve for now, but he'll also be entering his 9th season in 2011 (yeah, I know, already?!), so we'll be needing another competent reserve guy soon anyway.
* Cunningham - Still gaps in his game, but already improved over TBC. If he keeps developing at this pace, I'm good with him being one of the #1s at least for 2011.
* Ninkovich - I admire the way he appears to be steadily improving his game in only his first year really playing significant snaps at the position. Solid player; not often outstanding but not often unreliable, either, and correcting his mistakes as he goes. Not sure he has the upside to become a true long term #1, but he's already exceeded anything Pierre Woods ever did for us and seems more consistent than TBC. I think he'll be at least an extremely valuable #1a for a few years.
* Crable - Hell, IDK. So far, he seems to have only been deployed as a pass-rush specialist and (IMO) he's been not particularly stellar (though he's gotten close to home a few times). Not very good in either run defense or coverage, as afar as I've been able to see. At this point, I'm not counting on him lasting beyond 2011 Camp since it seems like it should be relatively easy to do better.

So, we have one possibly very good #1 (Cunningham), one possibly very good #1a (Ninkovich), one adequate-but-aging reserve (TBC) and, well, Crable. Seems like we need to try for another #1 guy (a solid run-defender who also has serious pass-rush potential and isn't a liability in coverage) and another competent reserve guy (who's good against the run and in coverage with a competent rush).
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So, BOTTOM LINE for me is, we need a STUD 3-4 DE (1st-round, probably), a VERY GOOD 3-4 OLB/RUSHER (early round, anyway) and a late-round OLB/ potentially competent reserve.

I agree with everything you wrote, exc. that Rubin, my 4th- & 5th-round binky from the '08 draft,
had a very good season last year, too. If Bill had chosen him insted of Wilhite or Slater,
the need to use #40/41 in '09 on Brace would've been mitigated.

 

[captain stone]

I consider Brace to be absolutely horrible on the nose. He gets too high and pushed all the way back New Mexico. He is at best marginal as a DE and the only upside I see to him is maybe he can block some of the wind from whipping BB as he stands on the side lines.

That being said, Brace has a whale of a good coach in Pepper, who needs to work on Brace's technique over and over again.

If we had drafted Cody, our D Line of Deaderick-Cody and Wilfork would be very difficult to run against.

I agree with your take on Brace, but would still rather train him as a NT than rely on him as a legit DE.

Deaderick-Cody-Wilfork would be the league's best short-yardage DL,
but how effective would they be on 1st or 2nd downs?

 

[Off The Grid]

The problem with your analysis is that there is only one stud 3-4 DE in this draft (Dareus) and he will be gone long before we draft.

No offense, man, but I cannot fathom how you can possibly overlook Nick Fairley.

He is, simply put, GODZILLA.

And his impact on this entire Defense would be SEISMIC.

If we fail to get everyone else I want, this next Draft, but still manage to get Nick Fairley...I will consider the Draft a spectacular success.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Don't you feel that some of the carping over TBC is justified?

Rarely. He's the same player he was before, he's been pulled back into a situational role, and for the most part he's doing his job on Sundays - why get your panties bunched?

 

[captain stone]

Rarely. He's the same player he was before, he's been pulled back into a situational role, and for the most part he's doing his job on Sundays - why get your panties bunched?

Because now he's getting paid to be more productive than he has been so far.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Because now he's getting paid to be more productive than he has been so far.

:confused2:

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

:confused2:

Sports fans generally don't like bad players. For 4.5mil a year, that is what TBC is.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Sports fans generally don't like bad players. For 4.5mil a year, that is what TBC is.

So he'd be a better player at vet minimum? I don't give a damn what he's making, Bob Kraft gets my money regardless. As for whether he's a bad player or not, if we were to go by internet message boards Tom Brady wouldn't be, Drew Bledsoe would have run BB out of town on a Ron Borges column.

At this point in time, TBC is a better player then Cunningham. BB sees what can be with Cunningham and has thrown him into the fire to grow - which he is doing. TBC, to my knowledge, isn't complaining, he's playing his role as assigned. Next Spring when we all start looking at who NE brought into camp we can start trying to cut or trade him. For now, he's the same player he was last year, he's just getting fewer reps behind Ninko and Cunningham - and judging by the carping over Ninko, I don't know which one fans want impaled first.

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

So he'd be a better player at vet minimum? I don't give a damn what he's making, Bob Kraft gets my money regardless. As for whether he's a bad player or not, if we were to go by internet message boards Tom Brady wouldn't be, Drew Bledsoe would have run BB out of town on a Ron Borges column.

At this point in time, TBC is a better player then Cunningham. BB sees what can be with Cunningham and has thrown him into the fire to grow - which he is doing. TBC, to my knowledge, isn't complaining, he's playing his role as assigned. Next Spring when we all start looking at who NE brought into camp we can start trying to cut or trade him. For now, he's the same player he was last year, he's just getting fewer reps behind Ninko and Cunningham - and judging by the carping over Ninko, I don't know which one fans want impaled first.

Ok, bad player is harsh and undescriptive. He does what he does. Its more a bad cost-efficiency decision. TBC is just paid too much, given the salary cap. It just seems to fly in the face of BB's mantra of versatility to give a 3rd down guy 4.5mil a year. Couldn't we find a better application of that kind of money than a sub rusher?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Ok, bad player is harsh and undescriptive. He does what he does. Its more a bad cost-efficiency decision. TBC is just paid too much, given the salary cap. It just seems to fly in the face of BB's mantra of versatility to give a 3rd down guy 4.5mil a year. Couldn't we find a better application of that kind of money than a sub rusher?

At the time of the contract? :confused2:

There was some controversy at the time, but I don't think the majority around here were too put out. As things currently stand, TBC is also the elder statesman of the Linebacker Corps, he may not have the same leadership cache as Mayo, but he was here when rings were won and I have little doubt he has wisdom to share.

I'm not a big stat guy, but since TBC's stats seem to be part of the argument:

Banta-Cain: TT 25, 21 solo; sacks 1.5 -- Games started 1
Ninkovich: TT 36, 24 solo; sacks 1; Int 2 -- 7
Cunningham: TT 20, 16 solo; sacks 1; FF 2 -- 6
Crable: TT 2

I'd also be interested to see coach's stats for QB Hits and Hurries/Pressures.

TBC may not be "starting," but he seems to be competitive in Tackles and big plays nonetheless. I'd have to go back through Reiss's postgame analysis, but for those I could find quickly TBC seems to get about half the snaps each game. I'd bet over the eight games played it would work out about 1/3 of the snaps for each of the three, though Cunningham would probably show an upward trend at Ninko's expense.

It's too easy as fans to get focused on the flavor of the week. Cunningham excites us because like Mayo he's a rookie starter, but I can't help thinking BB is glad he's got "old man" TBC around.

 

[captain stone]

:confused2:

That's the goofiest-looking carp I've ever seen,
and I saw plenty o' them while I was stationed in Japan.

 

[MaineMan]

At the time of the contract? :confused2:

There was some controversy at the time, but I don't think the majority around here were too put out. As things currently stand, TBC is also the elder statesman of the Linebacker Corps, he may not have the same leadership cache as Mayo, but he was here when rings were won and I have little doubt he has wisdom to share.

I'm not a big stat guy, but since TBC's stats seem to be part of the argument:

Banta-Cain: TT 25, 21 solo; sacks 1.5 -- Games started 1
Ninkovich: TT 36, 24 solo; sacks 1; Int 2 -- 7
Cunningham: TT 20, 16 solo; sacks 1; FF 2 -- 6
Crable: TT 2

I'd also be interested to see coach's stats for QB Hits and Hurries/Pressures.

TBC may not be "starting," but he seems to be competitive in Tackles and big plays nonetheless. I'd have to go back through Reiss's postgame analysis, but for those I could find quickly TBC seems to get about half the snaps each game. I'd bet over the eight games played it would work out about 1/3 of the snaps for each of the three, though Cunningham would probably show an upward trend at Ninko's expense.

It's too easy as fans to get focused on the flavor of the week. Cunningham excites us because like Mayo he's a rookie starter, but I can't help thinking BB is glad he's got "old man" TBC around.

I think the problem with TBC is merely that his predecessors were all able to shed a double-team with one hand while strip sacking the QB with the other before he'd even completed his 3-step drop and simultaneously whistling AND humming the Patriots fight song in two-part harmony. And they never failed to stop the RB before he got out of the backfield. And the only times they were ever flagged was when they voluntarily confessed to the ref and begged for one. And they paid each fan a dollar a game for the privilege of wearing the Pats uniform on Sunday. And none of them ever failed to remove the dishes from the kitchen sink before pissing in it.

So, y'know, tough standard to live up to.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think the problem with TBC is merely that his predecessors were all able to shed a double-team with one hand while strip sacking the QB with the other before he'd even completed his 3-step drop and simultaneously whistling AND humming the Patriots fight song in two-part harmony. And they never failed to stop the RB before he got out of the backfield. And the only times they were ever flagged was when they voluntarily confessed to the ref and begged for one. And they paid each fan a dollar a game for the privilege of wearing the Pats uniform on Sunday. And none of them ever failed to remove the dishes from the kitchen sink before pissing in it.

So, y'know, tough standard to live up to.

If we draft Kerrigan #1, is TBC even on the team next year?

 

[captain stone]

If we draft Kerrigan #1, is TBC even on the team next year?

Only if he takes a significant paycut.