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“The drafts have improved”


billdog3484

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If we’re winning the opposite thread gets made.
when you draft good players, you generally win. or at the very least, have talented players who make plays and compete. kind of a horrible take you made lololol. maybe one of the worst ive heard yikes
 

VrabelJr

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when you draft good players, you generally win. or at the very least, have talented players who make plays and compete. kind of a horrible take you made lololol. maybe one of the worst ive heard yikes
Those two drafts comprise less than a fifth of the overall roster and even less when taking injuries into consideration. Though I'm not surprised you weren't able to infer that given your writing style.
 

captain stone

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Those two drafts comprise less than a fifth of the overall roster and even less when taking injuries into consideration. Though I'm not surprised you weren't able to infer that given your writing style.

Not sure what "writing style" you mean, but he's not wrong.
 

PatsFan2

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And a QB reach also in the 4th round who was cut and will likely be again as soon as Grier is ready. Should have picked Howell if they wanted a QB, he is better than Zappe in every facet of the game. Mac isn’t a first year bust but he looks like one of those QB’s ala RG3 who start well then flame out.

A 4th and 6th rounder who are no longer on the team. First pick was one round too early, second was a project because of his frame. Not looking sogood…
Mac looks like a flame out QB or he is??
 
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PatsFan2

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This list does not help your argument at all and it's a losing battle for you. Bill has not drafted an impact Pro bowl/All Pro player on defense since Jamie Collins in 2013 and he was a two year wonder. That was 10 years ago. There are no foundational players on this team.

I suggest you watch other teams in the NFL that actually have talented players. The Pats don't have it. Former players are saying it. Analysts are saying it. Fans are saying it. There's only a very small minority that think the team has talent.
I can name them IBBTT.
 

PatsFan2

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The fastest guy in that draft I'm told. Bones made of glass, it seems, but fast as the day is long.
Too bad we don't have a QB that can get him the Football. And If the football mercifully gets there Boney T will end up on IR after getting cleaned up by the Safety.
 

MrBigglesWorth

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I just don't know what could have been done differently in '21 given the situation. They *had* to roll the dice on a QB. Didn't work. So it goes.
Signed a veteran QB other than cam newton
 

lancerman

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Trading back is smart when we're picking with late 1st round picks. Why? Because the second round always really begins at the 2/3rds point of the 1st round. Which is why trading down is always a good option there.

Now go back and look when we've traded in the upper half of the drafts:

Richard Seymour, Jerod Mayo, Ty Warren, Mac Jones.

I see only one trade down there with Christian Gonzalez.

What is evident to me is that WHEN the Patriots are in the thick of the blue-chip talents in the 1st round, they take the blue chip talent they want, and they've had great success doing so.

It's a totally different thing trading back when you're picking late. We've had a lot of busts doing it but also a lot of successes, and when people with high grades drop, we take them or go up and get them: Vince Wilfork, Donte Hightower, Chandler Jones
Nah there's always some gems late in the first round. Bill just make bad decisions, even when he picks in it.

2017. The Patriots traded for Cooks because they didn't value the pick. They ended up only keeping Cooks for a year. If they stayed at 32 it would have been very easy to trade up a couple spots and get a stud like TJ Watt or Tre'Davious White who are blue chip players that were within 5 spots of the Patriots. Even if they don't do that, Budda Baker was like 3 picks later. Those were 3 no brainer defensive studs that are still on the team that drafted them 7 years later and would have been huge for a team that needed to get some defensive stops in the Super Bowl that year and needed to replace some aging vets. If they went offense, they could have got Dalvin Cook who is a premier 1k running back and it would have shored up the run game for years to come. They wasted it on a guy they never had any intention of keeping.

2018. They kept their draft pick so it's kind of not as applicable. But they drafted Sony Michel. He was big for that playoff run. But he was really only good that one year and they didn't keep him when it was time to extend him. 1 pick later was Lamar Jackson who was basically a fail proof QB after they just let go of Jimmy G. He could have been kept on and developed as the next guy for when Brady left, which ended up being in 2 years. Would have been perfect timing. Nick Chubb was a FAR BETTER running back than Sony Michel and would have done been able to get the production Sony did that year only he'd be elite and would have likely been a premier back for us for years. Both of those picks would have been far better for the future. Likewise Shaq Leonard would have been a stud that would have immediately helped and aging linebacker core as Hightower was slowing down and we needed help there. That's 3 cornerstone type guys picked 5 picks after the Pats got a serviceable but not spectacular RB that they didn't value enough to keep.

2019. N'Keal Harry, nuff said. But unless you need me to spell out, the could have literally got all the WR's in the first two rounds out of a hat and were more likely to land on a premier WR that would have been a huge asset to the offense than what they did. This decision alone set the franchise back a long way.

2020. Patriots needed a WR. They watched a WR run happen right before them. They stayed put and then traded once all of them were gone. Very easily could have jumped a spot and got Justin Jefferson. Or Lamb if they were even a bit more aggressive. Hell they could have got Tee Higgens or D'Andre Swift.


There are gems around them that they just miss and make picks that are on paper kinda safe but low cieling and then they don't work out and don't stick around. Like I won't say Cooks wasn't helpful. But you got a guy for 1 year as a rental when you could have had a true cornerstone player at a position of need that would have shored up the franchise for years and would have still been there. Yeah Sony Michel the next year was great for a single run, but that was it, and you could have just got a better RB instead of him. Like there's an alternate reality where the Patriots White or Budda Baker in 2017, that good enough to not get our defense massacred by the Eagles and you get a ring, then in 2018 you get Chubb and you get the same result but have another foundational skill player that can be on the team to this day. Then you you get Deebo Samuels or Metcalfand you have a premier WR who gets separation and fixes a huge chunk of the offense. And maybe you trade up in 2020 one spot and get Jefferson.

You know what that scenario cost us instead. 1 year of Cooks, 3 years of Sony Michel, the total disaster that was N'Keal Harry, and the real losses are Dugger and Anfernee Jennings. Any day of the week that's an insane trade. Then either in 2023 you have Budda Baker as your premier safety, Chubb as a premier running back, Jefferson and Metcalf/Samuels as your two stud WR's assuming you fork out the money for them OR you get insane trade value for total blue chip talent like that
 

lancerman

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Signed a veteran QB other than cam newton
Who? Cam fell into their laps. They almost had a disaster going into the season with the season with Stidham.

The Pats weren't an attractive spot. Rivers was available but he had the option to throw to N'Keal Harry or go on a loaded Colts team. And he was pretty pedestrian there and then retired right away.
 

Stu Pidassle

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Mac looks like a flame out or QB or he is??
He certainly looks like a flame out at the moment. The ironic thing is that he is proving that his issues are mental which was his perceived strength at draft time. Sure the WR don't make his job easy and the OL leaves him out to dry, don't panic. Everyone would be in his corner if he threw the ball away or secured the ball when under pressure. He and the team need to stop playing the game in their head and start performing on the field, even if they lose to a superior opponent.
 

MrBigglesWorth

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Who? Cam fell into their laps. They almost had a disaster going into the season with the season with Stidham.

The Pats weren't an attractive spot. Rivers was available but he had the option to throw to N'Keal Harry or go on a loaded Colts team. And he was pretty pedestrian there and then retired right away.
I'm talking Macs first yr.. they could've got a seasoned journey man until a longer term answer was found
 

lancerman

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I'm talking Macs first yr.. they could've got a seasoned journey man until a longer term answer was found
Mac played well his first year. A seasoned journeyman wouldn't change the outcome of that year. And the ****show of hiring Patricia the next year and the total lack of addressing the offense over those two seasons would just leave us in the same predicament.

The only thing that would have fixed the current situation would have been to hit more in the drafts and for Bill to better address the offense. And probably not needing to give his guys a job and actually get some modern NFL coaches on the roster.
 

upstater1

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Nah there's always some gems late in the first round. Bill just make bad decisions, even when he picks in it.
Way to miss the entire point.

1. We don't trade down when we have premium picks. That's proven. You can't argue it. The record is there.
2. We trade up for great players who have fallen. We have numerous examples.
3. The drop downs for people like Strange are certainly made in drafts when the talent level around these guys is 2nd round level. Just go back and look at the draft from 3 years ago. Most of those guys after 20 are doing next to nothing. The guys we wanted like Kaiir Elam and Devin Lloyd are not producing. Elam hardly ever sees game time even when all the Bills D-backfield is banged up.
4. MOST IMPORTANTLY: I never said we can't find good players in that 25-40 area. In fact, WE HAVE FOUND THEM: McCourty, Hightower, Chung, Dugger, Mankins, Watson, Barmore, Eugene Wilson we've found 8 guys over the years to go along with all the busts like Easley, Harry, Dowling, Chad Jackson etc.

All I'm saying you're in bust territory when you're picking so late. If you compare the hits (like the 8 I listed above) to the busts, you're likely at the league average. You may even be doing better. Which is why it makes so much sense to trade down and collect extra picks that may turn into someone. So instead of Kaiir Elam, you end up with Strange, Jack Jones and one of our 4th rounders this year.
 

captain stone

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Who? Cam fell into their laps. They almost had a disaster going into the season with the season with Stidham…

Fell into their laps? I think you might want to re-consider that phrase…

And that 2020 season was indeed a disaster: Bill should’ve played Stiddy and/or Hoyer All Season Long and let the chips fall where they may; and then been a Massive Seller at the trade deadline.
 

lancerman

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Way to miss the entire point.

1. We don't trade down when we have premium picks. That's proven. You can't argue it. The record is there.
2. We trade up for great players who have fallen. We have numerous examples.
3. The drop downs for people like Strange are certainly made in drafts when the talent level around these guys is 2nd round level. Just go back and look at the draft from 3 years ago. Most of those guys after 20 are doing next to nothing. The guys we wanted like Kaiir Elam and Devin Lloyd are not producing. Elam hardly ever sees game time even when all the Bills D-backfield is banged up.
4. MOST IMPORTANTLY: I never said we can't find good players in that 25-40 area. In fact, WE HAVE FOUND THEM: McCourty, Hightower, Chung, Dugger, Mankins, Watson, Barmore, Eugene Wilson we've found 8 guys over the years to go along with all the busts like Easley, Harry, Dowling, Chad Jackson etc.

All I'm saying you're in bust territory when you're picking so late. If you compare the hits (like the 8 I listed above) to the busts, you're likely at the league average. You may even be doing better. Which is why it makes so much sense to trade down and collect extra picks that may turn into someone. So instead of Kaiir Elam, you end up with Strange, Jack Jones and one of our 4th rounders this year.
Way to miss the point.

McCourty: drafted in 2010
Hightower: drafted in 2012
Chung: drafted in 2009
Mankins: drafted in 2005
Watson: drafted in 2004
Wilson: drafted in 2003

6 of the 8 guys that you listed were all drafted over a decade ago. From 2014 to present there are two guys that have been worth a damn out of our top draft picks. That's how you have a team go into decline, when you are flopping on your early picks that often. And Dugger was someone we traded out for because we sat on our asses and watched a WR run happen right before us and rather than make a trade up and grab Jefferson we just sit on thumbs and said "oh well" and didn't bother with the 9 picks of the round. You can't tell me it was impossible for the Pats to jump 1 or 2 spots to grab a WR which was a huge position of need and would have been more impactful than any player we could add to the defense. And it's not even like Dugger and Barmore are some world class picks either. They are solid and have shown bright spots, but they aren't lighting the world on fire. They aren't Hightower/McCourty/Mankins level.

It's a big problem when your most valuable picks for almost a decade have amounted to only two solid role players.

Let's just go through some hits our division rivals got with their first two round picks in the draft in the last 10 years

Jets: Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, Marcus Maye, Quinnen Willaims, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall.
Bills. Robert Woods, Marquis Lawson, Shaq Lawson, TreDavious White, Tremaine Edmunds, Josh Allen, James Cook.
Dolphins: Devante Parker (lol), Xavien Howard, Jordan Phillips, Waddle, Robert Hunt, Jevon Holland.

And before you say it, quite a few of these guys were in range of the Patriots and I didn'y even bother to list all of them. Getting SOMETHING out of the first two rounds is important to maintaining a competitve team.

Screw it, let's look at the current top team in the NFL that appeared in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls. The Chiefs. Let's see how they did in the last 10 years with just the first two picks they took.

2013: They got Travis Kelce in the third round. Patriots easily could have got him.
2014: Dee Ford with the 23rd pick.
2015: Marcus Peters, Mitch Morse
2016: Chris Jones
2017: Patrick Mahomes.
2019: Mecole Hardman
2020: Clyde Edward Helaire, Willie Gay Jr
2021: Nick Bolton

No wonder they ended up being competitive when the were consistently getting value out of their best picks. You don't need a mega star each time. But when you are geting Easely who never plays, Jimmy G who sat on the bench for years, Malcolm Brown who was a flop, Jordan Richards who was a non factor most of the time, Cyrus Jones who had more value as a special teams guy, Derek Rivers who was a complete dud, Isiaiah Wynn who immediately fell apart with injuries and already was a bit undersized anyways, Sony Michel who had one decent season and we didn't value enough to keep (especially when we could have drafted Chubb at the same position who is a super elite RB that could have been a cornerstone for years), N'Keal Harry when you could have fallen ass backwards into anyone else at the position and been set for a few years in that draft, Joejuan Williams who was mid and then fell off with injuries after two years, Cole Strange who is complete garbage.... no **** the team is going to fall apart.

It's just crap to pretend the Patriots haven't had a drafting issue for a long time. Yeah other teams have issues to... the bad ones. The ones that are passing us and the consistently good ones, are actually getting far more value out of their top picks and finding more gems in later rounds.
 

lancerman

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Fell into their laps? I think you might want to re-consider that phrase…

And that 2020 season was indeed a disaster: Bill should’ve played Stiddy and/or Hoyer All Season Long and let the chips fall where they may; and then been a Massive Seller at the trade deadline.
Yeah Cam fell into their laps. Stidham was awful (worse than Cam even) and it was clear they got caught with their pants down.

In hindsight, I agree. 2020 was the time to start a bum like Stidham or Hoyer, lose out and have a shot at Lawrence and maybe a complete refresh draft in 2021. But nobody was ready to admit that Belichick wasn't a savant who could field a playoff team blindfolded if he just had "good enough". Really what should have happened, is after we went 2-5, they should have seen the writing on the wall and did exactly what you said. But then they beat the Jets and beat the Raven in that monsoon and tricked themselves into believing it meant something. So they kept going and beat two .500 teams and the Jets again.
 

upstater1

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Way to miss the point.

McCourty: drafted in 2010
Hightower: drafted in 2012
Chung: drafted in 2009
Mankins: drafted in 2005
Watson: drafted in 2004
Wilson: drafted in 2003

6 of the 8 guys that you listed were all drafted over a decade ago. From 2014 to present there are two guys that have been worth a damn out of our top draft picks. That's how you have a team go into decline, when you are flopping on your early picks that often. And Dugger was someone we traded out for because we sat on our asses and watched a WR run happen right before us and rather than make a trade up and grab Jefferson we just sit on thumbs and said "oh well" and didn't bother with the 9 picks of the round. You can't tell me it was impossible for the Pats to jump 1 or 2 spots to grab a WR which was a huge position of need and would have been more impactful than any player we could add to the defense. And it's not even like Dugger and Barmore are some world class picks either. They are solid and have shown bright spots, but they aren't lighting the world on fire. They aren't Hightower/McCourty/Mankins level.

It's a big problem when your most valuable picks for almost a decade have amounted to only two solid role players.

Let's just go through some hits our division rivals got with their first two round picks in the draft in the last 10 years

Jets: Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, Marcus Maye, Quinnen Willaims, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall.
Bills. Robert Woods, Marquis Lawson, Shaq Lawson, TreDavious White, Tremaine Edmunds, Josh Allen, James Cook.
Dolphins: Devante Parker (lol), Xavien Howard, Jordan Phillips, Waddle, Robert Hunt, Jevon Holland.

And before you say it, quite a few of these guys were in range of the Patriots and I didn'y even bother to list all of them. Getting SOMETHING out of the first two rounds is important to maintaining a competitve team.

Screw it, let's look at the current top team in the NFL that appeared in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls. The Chiefs. Let's see how they did in the last 10 years with just the first two picks they took.

2013: They got Travis Kelce in the third round. Patriots easily could have got him.
2014: Dee Ford with the 23rd pick.
2015: Marcus Peters, Mitch Morse
2016: Chris Jones
2017: Patrick Mahomes.
2019: Mecole Hardman
2020: Clyde Edward Helaire, Willie Gay Jr
2021: Nick Bolton

No wonder they ended up being competitive when the were consistently getting value out of their best picks. You don't need a mega star each time. But when you are geting Easely who never plays, Jimmy G who sat on the bench for years, Malcolm Brown who was a flop, Jordan Richards who was a non factor most of the time, Cyrus Jones who had more value as a special teams guy, Derek Rivers who was a complete dud, Isiaiah Wynn who immediately fell apart with injuries and already was a bit undersized anyways, Sony Michel who had one decent season and we didn't value enough to keep (especially when we could have drafted Chubb at the same position who is a super elite RB that could have been a cornerstone for years), N'Keal Harry when you could have fallen ass backwards into anyone else at the position and been set for a few years in that draft, Joejuan Williams who was mid and then fell off with injuries after two years, Cole Strange who is complete garbage.... no **** the team is going to fall apart.

It's just crap to pretend the Patriots haven't had a drafting issue for a long time. Yeah other teams have issues to... the bad ones. The ones that are passing us and the consistently good ones, are actually getting far more value out of their top picks and finding more gems in later rounds.
How you managed to BADLY miss the point is beyond me.

This conversation started when I pointed out the Patriots can trade a premium pick for a quality QB.

Someone responded to me that the Patriots ALWAYS trade down.

I responded that they almost never do with premium picks.

You responded by talking about later 1st round picks.

That MAKES my point. There are more busts in the later 1st round.

But their overall record is good their too.

So you come back with what have they done lately.

Well, lately they haven't been picking in the end of the 1st round!!!

They took Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez. They took Mac Jones.

Yes they missed on Harry, and the Strange pick remains to be seen.

So to make a point about 10 years ago is irrelevant because they are NO LONGER picking at the end of the draft.

Even if we revisit that area of the draft we're talking about, they still got Dugger, Barmore!

If we're talking about 10 yrs, the picks are Strange, Dugger, Barmore, Michel, Easley, Malcolm Brown. 6 guys. You can call Brown a bust if you want. He was a guy that was slotted to go in the top half of the draft by practically everyone, was considered a top 5 pick the year prior if he came out early. Everyone here celebrated when he was taken. Michel underwhelmed by actually helped us win a Super Bowl. This is not at all a bad record ... but whatever it is, it only REINFORCES my point. You're better off with trading down in this range and add 1 or 2 picks for mid rounds (3rd - 4th) than you are playing the 50% hit rate in this region.
 

mgteich

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The patriots are NOT terrible drafters; full stop.
============
There have been many analyses (by other than our posters). The patriots are almost always in the top 10. And yes, we do that even though we rarely have a top 10 pick.
==================
CHOOSING WHERE TO GET PLAYERS
We can players from the draft, from free agency, by trades and by concentrating on re-signing our own.

CLEARLY, Belichick has chosen to use top draft picks on defensive players. And he has done very well by suing that strategy.

Belichick has also used higher picks than most on OL's, also doing well.

WHAT ABOUT QB AND WR?
Of the current teams, 12 have NEVER won a Super Bowl. Yes, having a top 10 QB and an OK WR helps a lot.

We think that the team collapsed after Brady. Perhaps, our perspective is that we are used to winning the division and playing in the Championship Game. Not making the playoffs is the NORM in the NFL. Winning 7-10 games without a top 10 quarterback is very difficult.
========================================
Let's be VERY CLEAR. Belichick has failed to find a top 10 QB in the post-Brady era. Let's ALSO be clear. If Mac had worked out (reasonable for a top 15 pick), the patriots would be consistently competing for the playoffs. We are talking about winning 1-3 more games a year. In reality, we WERE INDEED competitive through the first 12 games in all of the last three years.

And YES, the coaching debacle of 2022 was pure negligence.

Perhaps, we should have brought in a $20M a year QB for 2023 to compete with Mac instead of giving Mac another year. Of course, we would have to have found the $20M. [BTW keeping Meyers instead of Shuster wouldn't have helped the cap situation]. But, we could have done it. Perhaps this QB would also have cost a draft choice. I would note that we had trouble finding cap money for the OL's that we signed.

Belichick wasn't ready to quit on Jones. So, here we are. Most posters predicted 7-10 wins.
1) We had lots of injuries coming out of camp.
2) Jones was a mess and a big question mark after the coaching debacle of 2022 (even there, we were competitive with a month to go].
3) We had severe needs on the OL.
4) We lacked a #1 receiver.
5) Our schedule was the most difficult in the NFL.
AND THEN the injury situation got worse.
==============
The BOTTOM LINE is that at 1-3, our results and performance were about what should have been expected, given the additional injuries. Even at 2-4, our results would not be unforeseen or unreasonable, if we are honest with ourselves. Until we get a QB, we are 7-10 team at best, and yes, Belichick still hopes that Jones is that quarterback.
 


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