Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

Real fan 02 said:

I knew going in the game would had have to been on the defense.. they Balled out and Drake did enough for the team to win..

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That is why I believe that Maye will be throwing fire in Denver. He will have to bail the defense out in this one because the biggest issue that I see is the defense getting worn down @ 5280 feet.

mike_usagisan said:

In the regular season, Drake was #1 against pressure. He just can't hold it so long.

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Not much different than the Texans game.
Sacks and punts are fine, but TOs can kill you. He needs to protect the ball.

uknepatsfan said:

Put it this way, reverse the situation and how many people would remotely fancy Denver if this was being played at Foxboro?

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Denver could be at least 7 point underdogs if this game were being played in Foxboro. The Mile High HFA is real in terms of noise, altitude, and how it gets the home team pumped up.

Triumph said:

I believe that Maye will play much better.

The last 2 games he was 58% comp rate vs LAC and 59% comp rate vs Houston. I am anticipating Maye to be back in the 70% completion % range.

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So, you are saying that Maye will improve from under 60% to 70% because we are playing a weaker Defense. Or perhaps you are saying that Maye will be over 70% simply because that is what you want to happen.

Rob0729 said:

I get that. I am not giving Wolf all the credit.

But people here think he is the worst player evaluator in the world. Reports are that Vrabel loves him. And basically all the free agents and all the draft picks have worked out this year. A lot of that has to do with Wolf, but no one person takes all the credit for it.

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I'm one of the people who has weighed in on Wolf in the negative. He IS a horrible talent evaluator. He seems like an excellent manager. When Wolf was preparing the lists for BBs reviews, he was OK. When WOLF had the final say, we got the 2024 draft. Arguably the worst Patriots draft (outside of Maye) since 2007 and it ranks as one of the worst in Franchise history .

The reason for the change in 2025 is multiple. Vrabel KNOWS what he's looking for in players. Vrabel clearly has the ability to articulate these requirements. He's brought in people in Highsmtih, Streicher, and Cowden to guide the Scouting Department at both the Pro and College level. Vrabel brought in coaches who understand that articulation and whom can put it in motion on the field. Those coaches also have weighed in with the ability to let the Pro-Scouting Dept know which players they had first hand knowledge of who would fit those requirements. The previous sentence is based on the fact that when people looked at all the FAs the Pats brought into TC, every one of them had a direct tie to either Vrabel or the Coaches that he brought in. That's also extended to players like Charles Woods, Leonard Taylor and Thayer Munford.

Real fan 02 said:

Hard to see us giving up 20 points.. unless Drake Turns it over.. and gives the ball back in the red zone.

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Why should we expect no turnovers?

Ross12 said:

QB1 - Nix (OUT)
QB2 - Stidham

RB1 - Dobbins (MIGHT be in; coming off Lisfranc injury; very hard to return from)
RB2 - Harvey

WR1 - Sutton
WR2 - Franklin (potentially OUT)
WR3 - Bryant (potentially OUT)
WR4 - Mims
WR5 - Humphrey

Not a great setup there.

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Don't sleep on Evan Engram. He's been a thorn in the Pats side in the play-offs. Stidham having Engram as his checkdown works in his favor since the Pats have had issues covering TEs all year.

upstater1 said:

Is anyone else like me?

I had supreme confidence before the San Diego and Texans games.

But I don't have the same confidence about this upcoming game in Denver.

I'm 50% on it. I think they can easily lose this one.

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I was confident for the Chargers.. Worried for the Texans game, but the Pats over-came. I have the same worry for the Broncos, though it's lessened by the fact that Stidham is playing and not Nix.. Also with the issues that Denver has injury wise.

DoubleDeluxe said:

Jacksonville had the best Run D in the NFL this year, but I get what you’re saying.
Harvey averaged 3.7 yds/carry on the season, not great.
Dobbins on the other hand averaged 77 yds/game and 5 yds/carry in the 10 games he played.
He is by far the bigger concern if he plays, and if he’s healthy enough to be effective,

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I'll be honest. I think that Payton stating that Dobbins' practice window is opening is just a mind game. That he wants the Pats to waste time / energy game planning for a RB that won't be there.

Field position is going to be crucial and I hope baringer does not keep bombing his punta with 30-40 yarders. He has been hopeless this season and should probably be replaced .

DaBruinz said:

I'll be honest. I think that Payton stating that Dobbins' practice window is opening is just a mind game. That he wants the Pats to waste time / energy game planning for a RB that won't be there.

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agreed

less than 8 weeks post lisfranc surgery just doesn't seem viable.......seems to me you'd be looking at another surgery and not much else

DoubleDeluxe said:

Jacksonville had the best Run D in the NFL this year, but I get what you’re saying.
Harvey averaged 3.7 yds/carry on the season, not great.
Dobbins on the other hand averaged 77 yds/game and 5 yds/carry in the 10 games he played.
He is by far the bigger concern if he plays, and if he’s healthy enough to be effective,

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One could say that Jacksonville's numbers are skewed because opposing teams attempted to run the least against them. But we know that can stem from JAX playing with a lead early. In YPC they were actually behind Denver (3.87), Indy (3.866) , and Vegas (3.886) as JAX was 3.94. The Seahawks at 3.73 are the #1 Run Defense..

I agree that Dobbins would be a bigger concern. However, as I stated, I think that the Broncos opening the practice window is them just playing games.

I wonder what Borregales’s range is in Denver. 60? Might be important…

Our D vs. their O:

Sean Payton WILL have something schemed up - he's excellent. If Charlton Davis is out - he will target Woods repeatedly. Stidham might be able to execute Payton's offense decently, but where he will likely fail is if we can get them out of the "scheme-up zone" due to situation (stuff run game, get up on scoreboard, etc) and the game could snowball. We HAVE to try to get to that situation, which means (1) stop the run, (2) stay disciplined on backend and don't fall for Payton's eye-candy trick plays that are surely coming.

Our O vs. their D:

This pass rush is just as fearsome as what we just faced, but it will be coming from more places than just the ends. Drake Maye, his line, AND Josh McDaniels have to work in sync much better - no more double-clutching on 3 step drops, no more deep passes without chip help, and no more free rushers off line games (looking at you Wilson - who should probably be benched for Ben Brown). Unlike the Texans, however, the Broncos can be had in a few spots on the back-end. Riley Moss is a DPI machine, Hufanga is a big hitter but questionable coverage man, etc. There will be spots to target esp. in the intermediate game.

Needless to say we need to run the ball effectively as well just to slow down that pass rush / stay out of third and long situations as much as possible (I'd say you pass more on first down and run more on second and third down). I hate that Josh has gone with shotgun so much against these elite pass rushes - we need to condense the sets, go jumbo, and put the base defense on the field to get to play action and target slow linebackers. Stephenson needs to play 2/3 series rather than alternating series with Henderson the way they've played so far. Against these elite speedy defenses you need to be able to run through tackles and fall forward, you won't beat them with pure speed. Henderson is less valuable than Stephenson for these games.

The biggest key of course is we cannot give Stidham short fields / advantageous situations. Every possession needs to end with a kick - force Stidham to actually have to play quarterback and drive long fields. We MUST play this like we are a defensive-oriented team, not like we're the 2007 Patriots.

Denver's defense leads the league with 68 sacks. Second place was 57. They led with 213 pressures, second was 197. They knock the QB down on 15.5% of passing attempts, also a league leader.
Opponents completed 57.8% of passes against them, 2nd in the league. They are 3rd in the league in passes defended. They don't miss many tackles either.

Opponents average 3.9 ypc, tied for 2nd best in the NFL.

DaBruinz said:

How do you know it's NOT Vrabel? Or John Streicher? Or Ryan Cowden?

How do we know that Todd Downing didn't mention Leonard Taylor to the Pats Scouting Staff as someone who could help with the D-Line. Downing was with the Jets last year. Much like the connection with Moses and Schweitzer that was talked about. Or the connections that were shown for a multitude of players that the Pats brought in.

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I am sure it is not just Elliot, but he is clearly very involved.

NFL Mystique said:

Denver's defense leads the league with 68 sacks. Second place was 57. They led with 213 pressures, second was 197. They knock the QB down on 15.5% of passing attempts, also a league leader.
Opponents completed 57.8% of passes against them, 2nd in the league. They are 3rd in the league in passes defended. They don't miss many tackles either.

Opponents average 3.9 ypc, tied for 2nd best in the NFL.

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And yet Allen had 350 yards of offense on his own against them. 282 yards and three TDs through the air.
Our passing offense is better than Buff’s and Josh flat out missed a few throws.
I expect we will move the ball just fine.

DoubleDeluxe said:

And yet Allen had 350 yards of offense on his own against them. 282 yards and three TDs through the air.
Our passing offense is better than Buff’s and Josh flat out missed a few throws.
I expect we will move the ball just fine.

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Buffalo has a better OL though

NFL Mystique said:

Buffalo has a better OL though

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I still expect us to move the ball.
Chargers pass D is very good and Maye was very successful in the second half after a shaky start.
I’m not saying it’s going to be easy.