Curran: "In my estimation... [Gonzo would like to] be treated as if he's at the table in 2027." [previous title: "say goodbye to gonzo"]

[slash83]

Yep. Anyone who talks about them revisiting the contract after the season doesn't understand how this works. Now is the ONLY time they can do a deal.

Hundred percent correct, there’s no way he’s extended next season, good as gone. Maye and rightfully so, will be prioritized next offseason.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Yep. Anyone who talks about them revisiting the contract after the season doesn't understand how this works. Now is the ONLY time they can do a deal.

Assuming he plays without an extension, I don't see him making business decisions on the field, I think he will play as hard as usual. That's the best way to ensure a big deal next year with us, or another team.
However this will undoubtedly become a distraction as it will be talked about all year and ultimately it's gotta impact him mentally.
Even if he ties to put out of mind, the media will never let that happen.

 

[slash83]

Assuming he plays without an extension, I don't see him making business decisions on the field, I think he will play as hard as usual. That's the best way to ensure a big deal next year with us, or another team.
However this will undoubtedly become a distraction as it will be talked about all year and ultimately it's gotta impact him mentally.
Even if he ties to put out of mind, the media will never let that happen.

I think he’ll be rewarded handsomely by another team that’s willing to pay him even if he’s making business decisions on the field.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I think he’ll be rewarded handsomely by another team that’s willing to pay him even if he’s making business decisions on the field.

Yup, that's definitely a possibility.
He has turned into a really good run defender, let's see what he does the first time he has to step up and tackle in a one on one situation.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

There's something known as the Billionaire advantage. While most of us who have investments earn 8-9% a year (ex. S&P), billionaires earn 13% on average.

I'm convinced this is how Kraft is looking at things:

"We all agree to make him the highest paid at $32.5m per year, but he wants $65m in guaranteed money up front as a signing bonus. We only want to give him $40m immediately and another $20m in a year, with the remaining guaranteed money in his 6th year."

For Kraft, effectively, a $65m payout becomes a $68m payout because he knows he'll earn $3m on the amount he doesn't pay immediately. The same thinking goes for Gonzalez. He can make 10% on the $60m he gets immediately (before taxes).

$3m may seem like nothing to us, but if Kraft has a policy that says, I'm only shelling out $300m in cash per year, because if I do $400m this year like the Seahawks are doing (and extended the payout into the future), that's a whopping $52m I'm foregoing in investment gains.

Effectively, the Seahawks owner not only paid $100m more than what Kraft would pay, in this scenario, but actually he paid $113m more.

There is a time value to money spent on the back end.

The more significant effect though is that having the money now is the ultimate guarantee. Hence all of contracting for future work.

I would love for you to pay me for the work, do the work to my own standards, never be evaluated (because there is no more at stake,) then maybe leave before my contract is up — or threaten to, unless you pay me again. Then I would live for you to also pay an inflation adjustment even though the original amount was determined knowing that inflation exists and maybe pay me again if I do my job competently.

ownership *should* invest the monies that are not part of the cap dollars spent, and they should get the best return they can with an appropriate risk (all investment carries risk). So in a one-on-one sense, any “billionaire’s advantage” would benefit ownership, which is wealthier than a given player,

This is a good analysis of the Patriots’ relationship to a single employee.

Now, what if all the players get together, make a union, and argue as a union for the player cut of earnings?

Of course, this describes the world we’re in. The salary cap/CBA dictate the extent to which the “billionaire effect” can pertain, because it forbids the team spending more than a given amount in a year. The rest is ownership’s money.

So the pressure advantage, such as it is, based solely on the theory that the billionaire gets better investment returns, can be looked at as a real thing.

But it is the most minor of reasons to push payouts into the future. The main reason is to manage cap hits. For example, you can give a bonus when your cap spend is lighter, resulting in more to spend next year. it’s baked in that you value a future dollar differently from a 2026 dollar.

If the team spends to the cap, the distribution within the roster is a competition among players, not a matter of investment gains of the owner vs. 1 player.

If your goal is the best roster, your main objective to get to that goal is to make sure you spend the full 301 m this year, and the cap amount allowed in the future.

No, the NFL and its clubs are not billionaire-funded nonprofits with millionaire employees. That would be the Center For Football in the Public Interest.

But the dynamic you’re talking about happens league-wide through the CBA, which defines how much $ goes to ownership and how much to players.

It’s only when you underspend the cap by $100 m year in and year out, that a club diverges from the model. That’s where you say an owner is doing it wrong & screwing his customers.

But yes, as a player, you want to be guaranteed the best possible terms in perpetuity. One way to do this is have all the money up-front (certainty of payout) but charge a premium for money spent in the out years.

Owners also have a say, and do not want to pay up front for everything, leaving no incentives and no flexibility to move on.

Then the next time you’re in the same position — this time for reasons of your own making — people will still call you a miserable, cheap bastard. They’d be as wrong then as they’d be now. But it would be true that you were a stupid bastard.

 

[borg]

For Kraft, effectively, a $65m payout becomes a $68m payout because he knows he'll earn $3m on the amount he doesn't pay immediately.

Don't you mean $62m payout?

The same thinking goes for Gonzalez. He can make 10% on the $60m he gets immediately (before taxes).

Absurd assumptions....

1) Attaching an automatic 10% yield is delusional
2) A bonus paid in Massachusetts is withheld at the flat 22% federal supplemental rate in 2026 (37% on amounts above $1 million), plus FICA of 7.65% and a 5% flat income tax, plus a 4% surtax on income over roughly $1.08 million.
Agent fee ($1.8m) due as well

Result:
Gonzo keeps half his bonus immediately after mandatory withholding taxes ==>$30.1m
Likely opens a 4% money market (taxed at the same 50% rate)==>clears $600k over 365 days.

$3m may seem like nothing to us, but if Kraft has a policy that says, I'm only shelling out $300m in cash per year, because if I do $400m this year like the Seahawks are doing (and extended the payout into the future), that's a whopping $52m I'm foregoing in investment gains.

Effectively, the Seahawks owner not only paid $100m more than what Kraft would pay, in this scenario, but actually he paid $113m more.

You are also delusion thinking Kraft is investing his organization's working capital in asset classes yielding your highly improbable 13%.
More likely he's tapping credit lines that he pays interest on.

 

[slash83]

Yup, that's definitely a possibility.
He has turned into a really good run defender, let's see what he does the first time he has to step up and tackle in a one on one situation.

Hope he does what’s best for him, he should be sitting out as Gilmore confirmed he wouldn’t be playing.

 

[upstater1]

Assuming he plays without an extension, I don't see him making business decisions on the field, I think he will play as hard as usual. That's the best way to ensure a big deal next year with us, or another team.
However this will undoubtedly become a distraction as it will be talked about all year and ultimately it's gotta impact him mentally.
Even if he ties to put out of mind, the media will never let that happen.

Why would we sign him to a much bigger deal next year than a cheaper deal this year? It makes no sense really.

If he has a good year, he'll be a lot more expensive. I have him at $36m (the equivalent of Witherspoon's deal) but much likelier he'll be expecting $38m a year.

 

[Uptown]

Question: Would we receive a comp pick if/when Gonzo leaves next year? If so, what’s the compensation?

 

[upstater1]

I think he’ll be rewarded handsomely by another team that’s willing to pay him even if he’s making business decisions on the field.

The problem I see with this, however, is that any team willing to pay him an average of $38m a year with over $100m guaranteed -- well, they'd be crazy to give up a lot of draft capital for him.

He's worth a haul if he's traded right now.

But next year, the price teams would be willing to give up drops.

Not only because they are shelling out more $$ to him, but because the Patriots will have less leverage. It's much easier to see a Gonzalez holdout next season if he's on his second consecutive year of making less than other comparable CBs. At that point, the Patriots have a huge problem. And other teams will know it, and the trade value will be dramatically reduced.

The Patriots know this (or at least they have until the November deadline).

 

[upstater1]

Question: Would we receive a comp pick if/when Gonzo leaves next year? If so, what’s the compensation?

He can't leave next year since the Patriots would pick up his option.

However, he can hold out.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Why would we sign him to a much bigger deal next year than a cheaper deal this year? It makes no sense really.

If he has a good year, he'll be a lot more expensive. I have him at $36m (the equivalent of Witherspoon's deal) but much likelier he'll be expecting $38m a year.

Yup.
I want him signed, I think this whole situation is a huge miss on the Pats part.
However, I've said multiple times that I don't know what the hold-up is, none of us do.
Is Gonzo really being unrealistic in his asks?
Are the Pats being cheap?
If I had to guess, and I am guessing, the Pats are the culprits, but I could be wrong.

 

[slash83]

When Wolf mentioned it’s about a cash budget that was all but Gonzos chances of getting an extension going out the door.

 

[TheRainMaker]

This is why you don’t prematurely sign a guy like Barmore.

The Williams contract and how quickly they signed him probably pisses off Gonzo as well.

 

[patman12]

Every other player in his category in his draft class has signed.

There have been 9 top of the market deals for players in the first round in his draft class.

Sure, but there are a ton of variables in all of those situations like: are those players better at their positions than Gonzo; do those players bring as much impact to the game as Gonzo; did those players have a strict line in the sand during negotiations (as Gonzo is rumored to have with the years). There clearly more than that but I’m not sure it’s as easy as Kraft isn’t willing to pony up the money. That may be part of it but I don’t think it’s the biggest reason.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

The problem I see with this, however, is that any team willing to pay him an average of $38m a year with over $100m guaranteed -- well, they'd be crazy to give up a lot of draft capital for him.

He's worth a haul if he's traded right now.

But next year, the price teams would be willing to give up drops.

Not only because they are shelling out more $$ to him, but because the Patriots will have less leverage. It's much easier to see a Gonzalez holdout next season if he's on his second consecutive year of making less than other comparable CBs. At that point, the Patriots have a huge problem. And other teams will know it, and the trade value will be dramatically reduced.

The Patriots know this (or at least they have until the November deadline).

This is why the hair-tearing-out now makes no sense to me. He's a guy under contract. He wants what he wants, well wahhh. I mean, dude, your contract just isn't up yet. This isn't hard. And I think he knows this. He knows it would be him being the d*ck right now to demand a contract get done before the season. Whagt's he going to do? Sit the season before his contract is up?

I think this is some weird thing we made up with lots of help from the media. It's like screaming in all caps WHY HAVEN'T WE LOCKED DOWN DRAKE MAYE YET? I mean, because he's on his rookie deal.

If our goal is to get the draft haul, okay, do it. What is known inside the buiilding driving such a decision? We don't know, but maybe it exists. More likely, speculation on it is a fun game to play, but it's speculation on "what would we get for giving up on a fantastic talent?"

The goal of draft picks is to turn up talent like Gonzo. Once you find the talent is to keep it - after you get decent value out of that cheap initial contract. Now, if he wants to take an initial hit and do it earlier rather than later, that's a vibe too. But he can't get a contract with one of these teams who would happily pay him now.

This all seems to me media- and fan-generated. The real time aspect to it is that it's summer and games aren't on.

 

[slash83]

This is why the hair-tearing-out now makes no sense to me. He's a guy under contract. He wants what he wants, well wahhh. I mean, dude, your contract just isn't up yet. This isn't hard. And I think he knows this. He knows it would be him being the d*ck right now to demand a contract get done before the season. Whagt's he going to do? Sit the season before his contract is up?

I think this is some weird thing we made up with lots of help from the media. It's like screaming in all caps WHY HAVEN'T WE LOCKED DOWN DRAKE MAYE YET? I mean, because he's on his rookie deal.

If our goal is to get the draft haul, okay, do it. What is known inside the buiilding driving such a decision? We don't know, but maybe it exists. More likely, speculation on it is a fun game to play, but it's speculation on "what would we get for giving up on a fantastic talent?"

The goal of draft picks is to turn up talent like Gonzo. Once you find the talent is to keep it - after you get decent value out of that cheap initial contract. Now, if he wants to take an initial hit and do it earlier rather than later, that's a vibe too. But he can't get a contract with one of these teams who would happily pay him now.

This all seems to me media- and fan-generated. The real time aspect to it is that it's summer and games aren't on.

Contract isnt up talk is just complete nonsense in today’s NFL, means nothing. Business is done differently nowadays, and it’s a fact.

 

[patman12]

Every other first round corner who was worthwhile (pro bowl, all pro) had their deals done im the last 5 years, except Trent mcduffie who was traded and then paid by the rams.

So, no, literally the opposite.

Fair point but if Gonzo/his agent are taking a different approach to asks for the contract than those player, that could have complicated those negotiations for those other teams.

And it may very well turn out that it is a 100% Kraft cheapness issue or it may be much more complex than that, at this point we just don’t have that information.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Fair point but if Gonzo/his agent are taking a different approach to asks for the contract than those player, that could have complicated those negotiations for those other teams.

And it may very well turn out that it is a 100% Kraft cheapness issue or it may be much more complex than that, at this point we just don’t have that information.

We don't know what we don't know.
However, this is the same agent that negotiated the Witherspoon deal.
Is it really believable that his agent has completely changed his contract tactics/demands for Gonzo, a mere couple of weeks after the Witherspoon signing?

 

[patman12]

We don't know what we don't know.
However, this is the same agent that negotiated the Witherspoon deal.
Is it really believable that his agent has completely changed his contract tactics/demands for Gonzo, a mere couple of weeks after the Witherspoon signing?

It’s a possibility, he works for his clients and if Gonzo has a firm stance on his must haves, there may be points that he didn’t negotiate for Witherspoon.

It’s also entirely possible that the Pats FO has an operating model that is inflexible about certain terms and when a player agrees to those terms, they can sell it to Kraft as a win.