I guess I'm struggling with all the heartburn about giving up a 1st round pick for a known commodity whose skill set should match VERY well with Drake's game and should give us at least a couple years of solid production (understanding that one never knows about injuries, etc.)
I mean, here is what we have done with our 1st round picks (when we had one) in the past 15 years:
- 2026: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah (Pick No. 28)
- 2025: Will Campbell, OT, LSU (Pick No. 4)
- 2024: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (Pick No. 3)
- 2023: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
- 2022: Cole Strange, OL, Tennessee at Chattanooga
- 2021: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
- 2019: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
- 2018: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia & Isaiah Wynn, OL, Georgia
- 2015: Malcom Brown, DL, Texas
- 2014: Dominique Easley, DL, Florida
- 2012: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse & Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
Out of those 11 picks, I'd say 3 were bona fide great players (Maye, Gonzales, and chandler Jones) and even one of those we needed to ship out because he was a head case. Too soon to tell on one (Campbell).
So, our hit rate -- even on 1st round picks -- is about ~30%, which means about 2/3s of them end up being so-so players -- or outright busts.
We can **** all over Belichick's picking strategy, but the reality is that MOST 1st round players don't end up being superstarts, and thus it's not unreasonable to roll the dice and use a pick to get someone whom you think will be a very strong asset -- because you are rolling the dice on the pick in any event. (Yes, I get the picks also have much better cap / cost controls than AJ.)
I'm not advocating a McVay approach (although he has done alright), but my point is that 1st round picks are not the instant gold that many seem to treat them as.