Patriots Rumor A.J. Brown trade rumors heat up - Should Patriots get him?

[Ross12]

Big brain take - Vrabel knows that the Patriots becoming consistent title contenders again is going to make people really mad and start going on witch hunts again making up ridiculous conspiracies like "Deflategate" and "Spygate" which the league will try to punish the Patriots for with unreasonably high discipline, so he is burning his future 1st round picks now before the NFL can take them away

 

[Grogan14]

It's ultimately just one pick though. Our discussion spawned off your initial post which said "if the Patriots get rooked for a 1 for AJ Brown, it will set the team back a lot. This is a team with huge needs still." It seems like they are replenishing one of those needs with this single pick, and I was trying to illustrate that many other needs would likely be handled by the time that pick would be paid out, so I am not really sure what you were trying to say besides a general idea that trading firsts is bad.

Again, I'd like to see lower value going out too, or a pick coming back - we'll see what it ultimately ends up being.

AJB is just one player who will be 30 in 2027. 30 is the age where most WRs drop off a cliff

 

[zimmy]

Terrible trade. I had hope that the delay until June would lessen the price. Wolf is having his pants pulled down here.

 

[The Gr8est]

Then a lot more went wrong than trading a first round pick.

And we wouldn’t have a 1st round pick to help fix the problems.

1st round picks are the lifeblood of a team and should not be just casually traded away like it is nothing.

At this point in his career AJ Brown is not worth a 1st round pick, no matter whatever coping argument people use to make themselves feel better about the compensation.

 

[Real fan 02]

And we wouldn’t have a 1st round pick to help fix the problems.

1st round picks are the lifeblood of a team and should not be just casually traded away like it is nothing.

At this point in his career AJ Brown is not worth a 1st round pick, no matter whatever coping argument people use to make themselves feel better about the compensation.

Teams that live year in and year out picking in the top half of 1st round particularly where we were prior to this past season are typically losing franchises. Your correct that first round picks should not be traded away. However if we are picking in the bottom of the first each year then that means we are either in the superbowl or deep into the postseason so I'm going with whatever the team believes will make them perennial contenders.

 

[TomPatriot]

Curious on that number, looking at OverTheCap, it looks like AJ has 1.3M base salary this year, and an option bonus of 11.2 due on Sept 1st, for a total of 12.5M.

Now I'm not a cap guru, so I'm sure I could be missing details.

I think I used AI so I could definitely be wrong.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

It's right to assume that a #1 would be in the mid to high 20's, which in most drafts gets you the same level player as high 30's. I'd say fine with it if we can get a 3rd coming back.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

The people who consistently downplay his age, his attitude, his injuries... what part of the term 'red flags' aren't you getting? You give up first rounders for guys in their prime, not guys who have the potential to fall off a cliff in short order.

 

[borisman]

If the Patriots get rooked for a 1 for AJ Brown, it will set the team back a lot.

This is a team with huge needs still.

Yeah, we're still lacking quality depth so having 10 picks next year is big, considering we are likely to lose about half dozen starters (Onwenu, Moses, C. Davis, H. Henry, Byard and maybe even Landry & Barmore). Some may return but we also may have 3 in-house replacements ready to roll for cheap money. Though those moves will open up a lot of cap space and with players signing shorter or 1-year deals, in some cases, because the cap is skyrocketing we may be able to sign some quality free agents again, as the player pool should be deeper next March. So looking ahead I can see why the Pats may want to push the pick into 2028 instead of possibly having to give a 2nd and a later pick in 2027, especially with a tougher schedule (we still have a very good team) and we're unlikely to stay as healthy as this past season. So the trade being a first in 2028 (we could be getting a 4th back in that scenario as well) may not be as hurtful as some think. But I get your point and legit concern giving up a first for an aging player who may have seen his better days.

 

[PatsFan2]

The people who consistently downplay his age, his attitude, his injuries... what part of the term 'red flags' aren't you getting? You give up first rounders for guys in their prime, not guys who have the potential to fall off a cliff in short order.

Age 29 is far from the cliff for a #1 WR: see Davante Adams @ age 29 *Career Year*. Stop getting hung up on a First Rounder who can flop. Don't you guys trust the second coming Drake Maye to get us at least 12 wins?? "O Ye of so little Faith".

 

[BennyBledsoe]

By the same argument, if you trust the current talent evaluation team.... wouldn't you rather have that cost-controlled first rounder?

I'm not saying Brown isn't worth taking a chance on, but he's not worth taking a first round chance on.

Just a reminder that we gave the Raiders only a 4th rounder for Randy Moss who was 30 at the time, coming off an ankle injury that cost him the final 3 games of 2006, and also was pushing his way out like Brown is.

Do you really think AJ Brown should be worth that much more than Randy Moss?

 

[upstater1]

Teams that live year in and year out picking in the top half of 1st round particularly where we were prior to this past season are typically losing franchises. Your correct that first round picks should not be traded away. However if we are picking in the bottom of the first each year then that means we are either in the superbowl or deep into the postseason so I'm going with whatever the team believes will make them perennial contenders.

I think we are being fooled by the sustained long term success of picking at the bottom of the draft during the glory years.

No other team has managed anything even close to that. Top talent is replenished in the first 20 picks of the draft. That's how it goes.

We're talking about trading with the Eagles here, right?

They've won 9 games games, then 14, then 11, then 14, then 11 in the last 4 years. Presumably, they should be picking at 20 and lower for every one of those seasons.

Yet after those seasons, they've picked at 13 (Jordan Davis), 9 (Jalen Carter), 22 (Quinyon Mitchell), 31 (Jihaad Mitchell), 20 (Makai Lemon).

What the Eagles appear to do is to trade older players for premium picks and to trade up with desperate teams they alwys seem to rook, and then they use lower round picks to trade for older established stars who their teams want to jettison.

The only problem for them is their QB is a huge question mark and their coach appears to be way too tightly wound.

Are we the next victims of Howie Roseman? They are constantly drafting higher in the first round than their finish while accumulating star vets in the lower rounds.

 

[Real fan 02]

I think we are being fooled by the sustained long term success of picking at the bottom of the draft during the glory years.

No other team has managed anything even close to that. Top talent is replenished in the first 20 picks of the draft. That's how it goes.

We're talking about trading with the Eagles here, right?

They've won 9 games games, then 14, then 11, then 14, then 11 in the last 4 years. Presumably, they should be picking at 20 and lower for every one of those seasons.

Yet after those seasons, they've picked at 13 (Jordan Davis), 9 (Jalen Carter), 22 (Quinyon Mitchell), 31 (Jihaad Mitchell), 20 (Makai Lemon).

What the Eagles appear to do is to trade older players for premium picks and to trade up with desperate teams they alwys seem to rook, and then they use lower round picks to trade for older established stars who their teams want to jettison.

The only problem for them is their QB is a huge question mark and their coach appears to be way too tightly wound.

Are we the next victims of Howie Roseman? They are constantly drafting higher in the first round than their finish while accumulating star vets in the lower rounds.

Great post! You're spot on Up.. I was more or less referring to team like the Jets, browns, Panthers ect teams that for years were picking in the top 5.. now as you perfectly stated we had years during the championship era for us that we picked in the top half. The reason why that's not helping us today is because we busted on those picks where as Howie hit on his!

Going back to Domique Easley 2014 all the way up to Cole Strange in 2022. Drake saved the 2024 draft from being complete disaster.

So my overall point was that if we as a team are having to pick at the end of the first round each year then that means we are a contender year in and year out. Unless Vrabel makes different moves to move up in the first round of course.

 

[upstater1]

Great post! You're spot on Up.. I was more or less referring to team like the Jets, browns, Panthers ect teams that for years were picking in the top 5.. now as you perfectly stated we had years during the championship era for us that we picked in the top half. The reason why that's not helping us today is because we busted on those picks where as Howie hit on his!

Going back to Domique Easley 2014 all the way up to Cole Strange in 2022. Drake saved the 2024 draft from being complete disaster.

So my overall point was that if we as a team are having to pick at the end of the first round each year then that means we are a contender year in and year out. Unless Vrabel makes different moves to move up in the first round of course.

Well... I agree for the most part here, but the Patriots had the best record of any team in the top half. The busts were mostly at the end of the first round.

Dominique Easley 29, Malcolm Brown 32, Sony Michel (not a bust per se but 32), N'Keal Harry 32, Cole Strange 29. All our busts happened after we played in the AFCCG (or in Strange's case, traded down).

Now look at our 1st rounders in the top 2/3rds of the round:

Richard Seymour 6, Ty Warren 13, Vince Wilfork 21, Maroney 21, Jerod Mayo 10, Solder 17, Chandler Jones 21, Mac Jones 15, Christian Gonzalez 17, Drake Maye 3, Will Campbell 4.

This is an outstanding record when we pick in the top 2/3rds of the draft. It is probably the best record in the NFL.

BUT the only back end guys who succeeded for us were Ben Watson 32, Logan Mankins 32, Devin McCourty 27, and Donte Hightower 25.

5 for 10 on the back end of the draft (admittedly, Sony Michel helped us so you can argue 6 for 10).

And 8 for 9 on the front 2/3rds of the draft with only Mac Jones being a bust (I didn't include Will Campbell in the calculation).