Long post coming - TLDR is that while Seattle is arguably as good as the Texans on D and better than the Broncos, stylistically they are more similar to the Chargers and we should have more opportunities against that style, esp. if the weather is good.
Our offense hasn't had the same struggles in every game:
Vs. Chargers:
We actually did pretty well on offense overall (381 yards, 6.0 yards per play) but failed in red zone (0/3) and a bad "trying to do too much" fumble turnover play by Drake in field goal range kept our scoreline down. Weather conditions (windy) may have played a factor in some of the red zone woes (in particular when Drake missed a wide open Hooper streaking to the end zone). The Chargers notably play similar defensive concepts as the Seahawks but are worse in run defense in particular. Our running game did enough at 80 yards on 19 carries (excluding Drake scrambles). Drake really hurt the Chargers on the ground with 66 yards on 10 carries.
Vs. Texans
This was a tough one, no doubt about it. Drake and the receivers had to make some ELITE plays to score 21 points on 15 possessions. The sticky coverage made Drake hold the ball more, and there were also some immediate pressures even when he didn't hold the ball. Weather conditions didn't help either, esp. earlier in the game when it was more wet than snowy. Thought the offense did well enough in the first half and 4Q but the 3Q performance was abysmal.
Our receivers generally had a hard time separating vs. the coverage + Will Campbell got steamrolled. Run game was just ok until 4Q when the Texans finally wore out.
Vs. Broncos
This was truly the first bad game for Drake Maye. Couldn't tell what was happening but it seemed like the receivers couldn't separate from man + Broncos were pushing their safeties down to crowd the intermediate area. Push rush got 5 sacks but mostly of the coverage variety - thought the offensive line actually played decently considering the opposition. In the 2Q-3Q I thought Drake really missed a lot of throws, which was uncharacteristic. Obviously by late in 3Q weather made it such that throwing was basically not gonna happen so this is really more of a partial game for the offense (2.5 quarters of reasonable weather). I'm not sure if Drake was so burned by all the fumble talk from the Houston game or even his near-interception on his first throw that he was in his head the rest of the game, but I haven't seen him be this off since the first half of the Cincy game. Still, he made some massive plays with his legs that were enough to win the game.
What to learn from this for the Super Bowl vs. Seattle:
Seattle plays much more like the Chargers than Houston or Denver (zone heavy vs. man heavy / matchup zone with man concepts), but they are better than the Chargers. They play a variety of zone looks but much more two high than single high / similar concepts (very similar to Chargers). Pressure-wise, they blitz at a low rate (about same as Texans and Chargers) and their sack rate is actually worse than any of the three teams we've played so far. They do miss a lot of tackles but their run defense is elite, perhaps best in the league (they are #1 by YPC).
In summary, they are the Chargers on steroids. Their linebackers are more rangy / athletic than the Chargers, their safeties are bigger and stronger and can make nickel hold up in run defense even against base looks. Their secondary overall is much better.
I think this is encouraging. When we've struggled this postseason it's been more against the man heavy / sticky coverage as the relatively mid-talent of our receiving/TE corp has been exposed. Our guys actually have shown elite ball skills all season but they just aren't that fast or physical vs. elite cover corners. Texans exposed this by just being better than our guys 1v1. Broncos got the same effect with Surtain and McMillan then hid their weaker coverage guys with a lot of robber / intermediate zones and letting Surtain be on an island (which we tried to expose but were simply unable to). This forced Drake to hold the ball and esp. vs. the Broncos he was clearly jittery about it after what happened vs. the Texans, which led to a bunch of coverage sacks / tenuous play from the pocket.
The Seahawks aren't that kind of team. They play a shell over the top, have rangy athletes in zones but not necessarily the best man cover guys. Our receivers all regular season were good vs. both man and zone, but vs. the most elite teams I think we've seen we are clearly better off against zone, particularly when there's room underneath. If the Seahawks play a similar two high shell then we will have chances for Drake to get the ball out relatively quickly and get in rhythm.
If I were Seattle I'd look at what the Broncos did and flood the intermediate zones to force the ball to go over the top. But the difference is that the Seahawks don't have Surtain or Stingley/Lassiter. Witherspoon is very good but he isn't an elite man to man corner, Riq Woolen is even worse off in that role. Note that even in zone, if the team is running a single high safety then everything deep eventually becomes man coverage. If Seattle floods the intermediate zones we can hit them over the top with Boutte or Williams (or Douglas from the slot). If they play their usual two high shell then Diggs and Henry and our running backs as pass catchers need to feast. If they go man coverage heavy like they did vs. the Rams (a puzzling strategy to me) there will be deep shot opportunities as well. We won't be able to do this as well as the Rams did (duh, we don't have Puka and Devante Adams) but we will get a decent number of explosives out of it.
The key is to get Drake in rhythm. That means lets start the game passing more on early downs vs. third down when the defense is expecting a pass. Get him some easy stuff to start if the underneath is available. Once he's in rhythm and seeing the defense well, we should have some opportunities - enough to get to the mid-20 pt range if we can capitalize. Red zone will be key as the condensed spacing makes those zones much tougher....Drake's legs will have to be involved here.
