Patriots Pregame Thread Patriots Chargers Sunday @ 8pm - pregame thread

[denverpatsfan]

What a team is favored by means Jack.

If a model rolls in Special Teams to the Defense, is a crap model.

Defensive Points allowed is just ONE of the stats. You also have to look at Rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and things such as % of drives ending in a score.

The Chargers run defense has been abused by decent to good running teams. As I pointed out. They gave up 192 yards and 4 rushing TDs to the Jaguars.. They also saw their Run defense give up 118 and 116 respectively to 3rd String RBs like Woody Marks and Jaleel McLaughlin. What do you think they're going to do against Stevenson and Henderson? The Pats put up 177 yards on the Browns, who were the best run defense at the time the Pats played them. The Pats put up 246 rushing yards against the Bills.

Diggs and Hunter Henry are excellent against Zone defenses. Some of Stevenson's best catch and runs have been against Zone. Chism and Boutte have shown promise against it. Maye has done very well against Zone schemes this year.

Could be the key to the game. Chargers are really good versus the pass. Let's ****ing run the ball and take some pressure off of the kid. It's his first playoff game. Statistics show that most 1st time playoff QB's lose. Got to help him and can't put the game entirely on his shoulders.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Couldn't help but notice you conveniently didn't respond at all about the 2 offenses.
The gap between them is large.
The gap between the defenses is not large
Advantage Patriots
Case closed

I specifically said that I expect the Patriots to win, and I only addressed your myopic take of your comparisons between the Patriots and Chargers defenses, which you still haven't properly rebuttaled.

 

[patfanken]

Pleasure to read this last page. Good, spirited discussion, well thought out and presented and above all polite. If I may, let me join in.

On basic principles the 3 ways to stop a good pass rushing team is to first run the damned ball efficiently. That keeps your QB clean, to wear down the lighter, faster front 7 and thus enhance your entire play action pass (PAP) game. On the negative side, I think when the OL heads to the LOS they will see most of the time at least 8 men in the box, and unfortunately one of them will be Derwin James. Always hard to run into an 8 man box, and last I looked, our OL forte seems to be pass blocking, though it's looked better the last 3 weeks.

The 2nd method to attack a good pass rushing defense is TEMPO. Rushing a hurry up offense is hard and your rushers are quickly tired out and thus less effective. UNFORTUNATELY, I can't recall a SINGLE full series that we have run in hurry up mode this season (even though I've been calling for it weekly for at least the last 3 months. Part of it has been we've been ahead so much at the end of games, and part is because given the new kicking realities leaving a team as few as 35 seconds at the end of a half or game can result in scoring opportunities. So, coaches have to take that into consideration and end of half drives often don't look so hurry up anymore. Well, I would have liked to have done it game speed a few times before the playoffs, so I wonder if we will see it on Sunday.

BTW- one way to attack an 8 man front in the running game is to use the QB as a designated runner if you have one who can run the ball. Well do we have one? Yes we do, and we should use him 3 or 4 times this game.

The third way is to go 5 wide, spread them out and kill them with the death of a thousand short passes, like we used to cut up those great Steeler defenses of the past. IIRC it was one of the first times 5 wide was used in this manner.

The thing is, you can make legitimate arguments for BOTH pro and con points in this game, AS IT SHOULD BE in the playoffs. And at the end of this game it is VERY likely that each respective fan base will be rejoicing or crying into their beers about those 4 or 5 plays or calls or bounces went for or against them. Here's hoping WE are those guys who are rejoicing.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

If Spillane and Landry (and Landry is closer to his early season form) are back, I can live without Tonga. Although I want him back.

We would be missing Tonga and Hollins as starters or key subs? Look at the Chargers injuries. Missing only Tonga and Hollins is a dream scenario.

 

[n1997y]

Patriots released Miles Battle from the PS.
Patriots re-signed Sebastian Gutierrez to the PS.

Wonder if the re-signing of Gutierrez has anything to do with Munford going from limited to DNP and giving the Pats someone to elevate in the event that Tonga and Munford both can't go..

Both Munford and Lowe DNP today. That’s seemingly a little thin.

 

[SVN]

Pats-Chargers preview: Why run game will be crucial in Wild Card matchup

How can the Patriots take care of business against the Chargers in the AFC Wild Card Round? Phil Perry previews four key matchups.

www.nbcsportsboston.com

 

[SVN]

 

[slash83]

Hampton Chargers HB hasn’t practiced all week with an ankle issue.

 

[PP2]

I specifically said that I expect the Patriots to win, and I only addressed your myopic take of your comparisons between the Patriots and Chargers defenses, which you still haven't properly rebuttaled.

Rebuttaled?

 

[Clonamery]

Rebuttaled?

A big butt. A big rebutt. A big rebutted. A big rebuttal. A big rebuttaled.

One of these things doesn't belong.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Rebuttaled?

Yep, the unfortunate result of responding/typing quickly while consuming numerous ****tails...

 

[PatsFan2]

Both Munford and Lowe DNP today. That’s seemingly a little thin.

We need Thayer for Mumford he's been a pleasant surprise.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Accuweather saying low 30s and dry at game time.

 

[Water Boy]

Accuweather saying low 30s and dry at game time.

22 mph wind gusts? LAC has the type of defense that forces dink and dunk and is very good in the redzone. The kicking game might be very important. Borregales might be the key to this game.

 

[jimnance]

Rebuttaled?

His argument was not only rebuttaled
But also scuttled

 

[Triumph]

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

His argument was not only rebuttaled
But also scuttled

Scuttaled?

 

[BobDigital]

So at this point ready to give my thoughts and prediction on the game. More in depth than in any past post anyway.

I have heard said time and time again the Patriots are not in position to take advantage of LAC's weakness. Which is the OL. That is something i 100% do not believe. Their line right now is so bad you don't need to be good to take advantage... Yes a better line could do more... But with Milton Williams alone that creates a ton of problems for them to deal with. You don't need to have a great DL to take advantage of what is likely the worst OL in the NFL. That is missing the forest for the trees thinking. This line was going to be a problem for them regardless of who they faced in the playoffs. And it will be a problem when we play them, particularly now that Williams is back.

IDK who will play Sunday for sure yet... but i do know the Pats will get pressure and do much better stopping the run. Spillane will be back. Will Tonga? IDK. I hope so... but even without him this OL isn't going to have much success run blocking. People sleep on how good our run blocking was and forget most of those injured guys will be back for this game. The past 2 weeks the run game with the starters in for the opponent hasn't gone well. I don't think it will go well with the Chargers. Hampton is a good back... but I don't see him or anyone else doing enough on their team on the ground to keep them ahead of the sticks all that often through the run.

As for the DBs... that will be interesting. LAC have some good pass catchers on paper.. but McConkey isn't the guy they hoped he'd be after his end to last year. Allen is older and lacks explosion... less than 10 YPC isn't good. Q Johnson has kind of capped out as a meh #2. They have a good rookie TE in Gadsden but he isn't McBride or Kelce or anything... he isn't taking the game over. They basically have a lot of good options, but nothing they can rely on. They will be relying on Herbert to make the right reads and find the match ups that work. When he has enough time.

Overall this offense just isn't that scary on paper and the point totals back it up. They have had a few nice games but against any decent D they have been more or less held in check to the low 20s. I expect that to happen here. I don't see them scoring more than 24... that is probably their limit unless they get help. If not they probably shouldn't even hit that mark.

Our offense will be facing a good defensive unit. No question about it. Don't need to go into it exactly Pass rush. Run D. coverage. James. They have a very good defense. But the Pats have face a number of very good defenses this year. They tend to be able to score about 23 on anyone. And right now their O is playing the best it has been all year. LACs do a good job of holding teams down... Only gave up more than 27 twice and have given up 20 or less more than not. All that is fair to say. This will be a strength vs strength match up. But the Pats... don't need to win. They just need to hit 'Par'. If they score even 24 it puts the LACs in a very tough spot. If they score more and it starts to become a shoot out that massively favors them.

I will say the same thing about this game I did about the Bills game... but from the opposite perspective. I said on that Bills game the more points scored overall, the worse for us. This game is the opposite. The more points scored the better for us. If it turns into a 'who can hit 30 or more before the clock runs out... Pats win. If it is kept in the teens by both teams. LACs probably win it. Even if it is even at half time if both teams get off to a good offensive start and it is 14-14 at half time... That is exactly where the Pats want to be. See which offense can maintain that pace. I don't think it will be LAC.

Overall I have to say i feel good about the Pats this week. I've seen too much proof of them being about to cobble together respectable point totals vs good defenses. There is every reason to think they can do that again... and as long as no back breaking pick 6 or STs TD happens against the Pats... I think doing that again will be enough. On the LAC side... I have no reason to think they will be able to be more successful against our D than they have been against the majority of Ds they faced.

As a wild card on our side... Their STs unit is bad... we have been saving Marcus Jones this year... one of the best returners of all time to keep him healthy. I wouldn't at all be surprised for him to break a big one... maybe even score. I think he will at least put us in position where we are 1 first down away from a cheap 3 points at some point.

Pats 27 LAC 20.

 

[Thelonious]

A big butt. A big rebutt. A big rebutted. A big rebuttal. A big rebuttaled.

One of these things doesn't belong.

As an older gentleman whose ass is much diminished from its former glory, I had been thinking of traveling to Brazil for a rebuttal. Now it turns out I can get one here for free? That's great. It's either that or suspenders. I already have the classic 70's pornostache, and suspenders would have pushed me too near the Wilford Brimley aesthetic.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Could be the key to the game. Chargers are really good versus the pass. Let's ****ing run the ball and take some pressure off of the kid. It's his first playoff game. Statistics show that most 1st time playoff QB's lose. Got to help him and can't put the game entirely on his shoulders.

It is a happy coincidence that a run oriented attack allows Drake to get a feel for the playoffs before needing to rely on him to pass against a good defense. As long as the Pats don't fall too far behind, JMD just needs to attack the other teams weakness. All bets are off if SD gets a big lead or stops the Pats running the ball.