A Different View On Our Three starting WR's (presuming health)

[javajunky]

But what you quoted simply said he played a higher percentage of snaps.
We’ve seen the value before with guys like hogan.

Polk has a long, long way to go just to make the team. Probably will be on the practice squad

Hollins was on the field for 67% of the Bills' offensive snaps, even though he was sixth on the team in receptions in a high-powered Bills offense. It was his complementary skills that kept him on the field.

I think Polk can end up replacing him with his better long-term upside. Polk looked great in his rookie preseason, but was overwhelmed trying to slot him into a number one role.

My ranking for our receiver running blocking skills in our heavy power run offense.
1) Hollins
2) Polk
3) Williams
4) The rest suck

 

[goheels22002]

I presume that all are healthy and no one is on PUP or IR.
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Diggs and Williams should be 2 starters.

Who is the 3rd?

So many of us have presumed that it is Douglas as our slot receiver, or even Chism as our slot receiver.
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I suspect that we may be underestimating Hollins. IMO, he is a better player than Douglas. I think that we would have a stronger and more flexible 3-man WR team with Williams, Hollins and Diggs. If roles need to be labeled (no really necessary fir Josh), then Diggs can certainly be the slot receiver.
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IF THIS IS OUR BASE SET OF STARTERS, THEN
1) the backups are not at all clear. I could see Bourne, Boutte, Polk or Douglas as the #4 or #5. I note that the #5 will almost always be inactive.
2) I am fine with carrying a developmental 6th who would not be expected to be active without two injuries. There is always room for one or two of these. Polk, Baker and Chism are possibilities.
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My personal choice for our active top four is probably unpopular: Diggs, Williams, Hollins and Bourne. I think that this is a strong unit for 2-3 years, and much, much stronger than what we have had. This leaves room for 1-2 players who could develop. For me, the other five are all developmental players: Boutte, Douglas, Polk, Baker, Chism.
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CONSIDERATION
Some think that we are paying Bourne too much. I disagree. We have the money. Let's field our strongest team.

If the offensive line is the upgrade to the offense that we hope it will be, my guess is that you are correct on Mack Hollins as a starter on the outside. At 6'4", 225, Mack Hollins is a mismatch for smaller DBs and big trouble at the second level for LBs. Hollins is a big target for Maye and represents a TE-type receiver.

Mack Hollins is a good blocker. At Carolina, he was an excellent WR and special teams blocker. Drake Maye is good at going through progressions and Hollins offers help in getting other guys open when the first choice is negated.

Javon Baker and Ja'Lyn Polk may be the more athletic receivers in this offense, but both have to prove they can get separation. They may turn out to be much better in a Josh McDaniels offense. I see both of those guys as potential breakthrough receivers with Diggs commanding the top DB in passing situations.

What we do know, is unlike last season, the receiving corps will be reading the defense and reacting better. Last year basic Cover Two zone defenses worked just fine against Maye because he was always under pressure. If he's got that 2.5 to 3 seconds to work through progressions, this offense will be sound.

 

[Ring 6]

Hollins was on the field for 67% of the Bills' offensive snaps, even though he was sixth on the team in receptions in a high-powered Bills offense. It was his complementary skills that kept him on the field.

I think Polk can end up replacing him with his better long-term upside. Polk looked great in his rookie preseason, but was overwhelmed trying to slot him into a number one role.

My ranking for our receiver running blocking skills in our heavy power run offense.
1) Hollins
2) Polk
3) Williams
4) The rest suck

Right, the stat said he played more snaps. Playing more snaps doesn’t prove you did well with them. That’s my point


Maye needs guys that can get open more than he needs wr blocking

Polk didn’t look great in preseason. He was so-so but as soon as real competition happened he was horrible. As bad as any WR in any season in the last 30 years (with similar playing time). He couldn’t get open vs 1,2,3,4.
I saw zero willingness to block out of Polk (or effectiveness) , not sure where you are getting that from.

 

[rkarp1]

Right, the stat said he played more snaps. Playing more snaps doesn’t prove you did well with them. That’s my point


Maye needs guys that can get open more than he needs wr blocking

Polk didn’t look great in preseason. He was so-so but as soon as real competition happened he was horrible. As bad as any WR in any season in the last 30 years (with similar playing time). He couldn’t get open vs 1,2,3,4.
I saw zero willingness to block out of Polk (or effectiveness) , not sure where you are getting that from.

undoubtedly, but the RB's need a guy who can spring them

Maye also needs a larger target in the red zone other than Henry

 

[Ring 6]

undoubtedly, but the RB's need a guy who can spring them

Maye also needs a larger target in the red zone other than Henry

WRs need to block willingly, but you don’t prioritize blocking, they have far more impact in the passing game. There isn’t much difference between WRs blocking if there is effort and willingness.

We bed guys who can get open not guys who are just tall.

 

[DC Patriots]

undoubtedly, but the RB's need a guy who can spring them

Maye also needs a larger target in the red zone other than Henry

Sorry for the mgteich empty quote. I hit something when scrolling and I’m too stupid to figure out how to get it off the message. Which should nicely let you know how little my option means.

I agree with you a second red zone target is a must. I don’t think it’s Hollins. He has 15 TD over 7 full seasons. He’s big, but he’s not an effective red zone guy. Unless I’ve missed something

 

[Real fan 02]

While I have high longterm hopes for Kyle Williams, our collective expectations may be a bit high.

He's a third round rookie WR.

Many on the forum have called for Bourne to be traded, but I think mgteich has a valid point in retaining him instead.
I was initially on the 'trade Bourne' train, but at this point I'm reconsidering - especially since we don't know for sure that Diggs will be 100% healthy by week one.

For the sake of comparison our top 2024 WRs had 66, 43, 28 and 12 receptions.

From the 2024 draft, 3rd round WRs had 3, 4, 0, 37 and 18 receptions.
That's an average of 13, and a mean of 4 catches. By contrast Ja'Lynn Polk had 12 receptions last year.

From the 2023 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 47, 23, 21, 68, 38 and 19 receptions.
Much better, an average of 34, and more in line with what you would want - but overall still not worthy of being a #2.

From the 2022 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 7, 2, 24, and 1 receptions.
Awful, and even the top producer was not all that special.

From the 2021 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 33, 12, 4, 33 and 10 receptions.
That's an average of 18.4, which would be 4th best on the 2024 Pats.

From the 2020 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 28, 11 and 20 receptions.
That is an average of 20, which again would have only ranked 4th best on last year's team.

So that's the last five years of data on third round wide receivers.


Williams has the most potential, but I do not want to count on him being the #2 WR - not yet.

If Diggs can go right away, great.
If Williams can contribute right away, great.
But I'm not going to count on either or both of those things happening.
Sadly, until proven otherwise, Douglas, Bourne and Boutte are the Pats top WRs.
At some point that will change to Diggs, Williams and Douglas/Chism.

Jmt... I've been a KB supporter for the longest time. I never wanted him gone myself. Here's another thing of note.
Rham, KB, and Henry all played for Josh they will be able to hit the ground running while if Diggs if he isn't ready can allow him the time he needs. So the offense can sustain and be much better this season without having to ask Williams, Chism to carry it.

Ultimately when the offense does hit mid season form.. expect Diggs, pop, Henry,KB, Henderson, Williams to be key guys.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think you overate Hollins. He has been in the league 7 years and has more than 18 receptions twice. The last 2 years were 49 receptions combined. Outside of 1 season he’s about a 1 catch a game guy.

Now he will get more playing time than his numbers warrant but that is because of blocking.

Douglass has been more productive in his 2 seasons and is a good fit in this offense.

Hollins is a hard working blocking WR. I don't see him as a starter. He's your 4th or 5th WR.

WR1 Stefon Diggs.
WR2 Kyle Williams.
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WR3 Chism
WR4 Douglas
WR5 Hollins
WR6 Either Polk or Baker Whoever looks best in training camp/preseason.
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We will NOT keep 7.

Why is Bourne not on the list? Honestly going by talent alone he should get the nod at WR4 or WR5. But I think we will trade him away and save some cash on the cap. 5.5m feels a lot for a WR4/WR5.

 

[Ring 6]

Hollins is a hard working blocking WR. I don't see him as a starter. He's your 4th or 5th WR.

WR1 Stefon Diggs.
WR2 Kyle Williams.
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WR3 Chism
WR4 Douglas
WR5 Hollins
WR6 Either Polk or Baker Whoever looks best in training camp/preseason.
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We will NOT keep 7.

Why is Bourne not on the list? Honestly going by talent alone he should get the nod at WR4 or WR5. But I think we will trade him away and save some cash on the cap. 5.5m feels a lot for a WR4/WR5.

Chism #3????

 

[Ring 6]

Sorry for the mgteich empty quote. I hit something when scrolling and I’m too stupid to figure out how to get it off the message. Which should nicely let you know how little my option means.

I agree with you a second red zone target is a must. I don’t think it’s Hollins. He has 15 TD over 7 full seasons. He’s big, but he’s not an effective red zone guy. Unless I’ve missed something

10 of those were in the red zone. For his career he had 17 red zone catches in 112 games.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Douglas and Boutte have both been playing with incompetent QB’s prior to Maye playing, and that needs to be taken into consideration in regards to his production.

Boutte and Douglas were drafted in 2023 so they both have 2 years in the league. So one year with Jones and one year with Maye. There is not incompetent QBs (note it is not QB's) since it is only one QB prior to Maye. One QB can not be QBs.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Boutte and Douglas were drafted in 2023 so they both have 2 years in the league. So one year with Jones and one year with Maye. There is not incompetent QBs (note it is not QB's) since it is only one QB prior to Maye. One QB can not be QBs.

Brissett

 

[Ring 6]

Boutte and Douglas were drafted in 2023 so they both have 2 years in the league. So one year with Jones and one year with Maye. There is not incompetent QBs (note it is not QB's) since it is only one QB prior to Maye. One QB can not be QBs.

Zappe, Brissett

 

[WhatJustHappened]

C'mon Huck, he said QB's dammmmmit!

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Brissett

Zappe, Brissett

Yup, you are right. I was thinking "years" and typing "QBs".

I am not sure the number of QBs is important if they all were in 1 or 1+ years. Rookies can recover from a bad year or so.

 

[Real fan 02]

Hollins is a hard working blocking WR. I don't see him as a starter. He's your 4th or 5th WR.

WR1 Stefon Diggs.
WR2 Kyle Williams.
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WR3 Chism
WR4 Douglas
WR5 Hollins
WR6 Either Polk or Baker Whoever looks best in training camp/preseason.
==========
We will NOT keep 7.

Why is Bourne not on the list? Honestly going by talent alone he should get the nod at WR4 or WR5. But I think we will trade him away and save some cash on the cap. 5.5m feels a lot for a WR4/WR5.

If we are trading Bourne then that means we are keeping Boutte. A guy who seems to be forgotten that every big TD..play to a WR when Drake took over went to Boutte.

I'll say it again Kayshon Boutte is a good young player and he's costing the team really nothing. May as well keep him and allow him to continue to develop and be one of Drakes guys.

 

[Ring 6]

Yup, you are right. I was thinking "years" and typing "QBs".

I am not sure the number of QBs is important if they all were in 1 or 1+ years. Rookies can recover from a bad year or so.

I agree

 

[Real fan 02]

Zappe, Brissett

Agreed

 

[Real fan 02]

10 of those were in the red zone. For his career he had 17 red zone catches in 112 games.

Ring, answer me this? Hollins played with an all pro QB, and excellent OC in Brady, no one at wr stepped up. He had plenty of opportunities last season in Buffalo to be me productive. Why only 383 yards? Just trying to get a perspective on him. Thanks.

 

[PatsFan2]

My best guess at a depth chart, starters in bold, with some optimism thrown in:

BIG WR – Stefon Diggs, Kendrick Bourne/Mack Hollins,
FAST WR – Kyle Williams, DeMeer Blankumsee,
SLOT WR – Demario Douglas, Efton Chism,

I get that Boutte has a better chance than DeMeer Blankumsee actually developing into an NFL player, like I said… optimism…. he’s fast.

I would add Javon Baker in the Fast category; though he's not Kyle Williams Fast! not many is.