Best way to get an elite QB

[Ross12]

Data tends to show that very good QBs (not necessarily “elite”, but you don’t need “elite” to win a Super Bowl) are drafted highly in the first round - usually. There are outliers of course, but your chances of the prospect working out are a good bit higher if they are a top 10-ish selection. I mean, that’s true of any position to a degree, but especially at QB.

Problem is, when you take these kids that high, it means that you A) suck by virtue of having that pick (unless it’s a trade) and B) now need to essentially anoint the kid as your franchise centerpiece before he’s even really done anything.

This can make it difficult to develop the kid. Bad teams have coaches on short leashes so there is pressure to get the kid in action fast in order to save their own jobs. For better or for worse, QBs probably develop better under a staff that isn’t fearing for their own job security. For all that went badly in 2024, the Patriots DID develop Maye pretty well - aided by the fact that Jerod Mayo and Co. were convinced they had “3 years” to build something.

To get back to the point, for a higher chance of success getting the guy, you probably need to suck, or trade a haul to a team who sucks. Even then, the kid is more likely to flame out than not. There may be some strategy in living in mediocrity .500 land with a middling starter as you stave off job security questions for a time, a trade up into top 10 is not as expensive if you want to make it, and your established starter is hopefully “good enough” that it buys you time to develop a drafted QB on the bench for a year or so.

 

[upstater1]

Best way is to keep swinging for a QB in the 1st round and hope it's a good QB draft. Then hope he keeps his head on straight (Deshaun Watson). Trying for a QB in the 2nd through 7th is dog food. Waste of resources. Over 25 years only a handful have a panned out.

The record over the last several years including the Mahomes draft is 17 good QBs, 9 bad QBs. This counts Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield as good QBs, Sam Darnold as bad, and no count for JJ McCarthy.

 

[Patriot Missile]

The best way to get an elite QB is to suck.

And even then, you have to be lucky that the top 3 pick you take at QB doesn’t suck. Happens all the time.

 

[Wozzy]

Data tends to show that very good QBs (not necessarily “elite”, but you don’t need “elite” to win a Super Bowl) are drafted highly in the first round - usually. There are outliers of course, but your chances of the prospect working out are a good bit higher if they are a top 10-ish selection. I mean, that’s true of any position to a degree, but especially at QB.

Like I said above, it’s supply and demand. There are fewer NFL caliber QB’s and Kickers… certainly fewer than other positions.

People here hate the idea of drafting a kicker (or long snapper) and especially hate the idea of drafting them higher in the draft. But based on your team’s draft class analysis, if there are only two NFL worthy kickers in the entire class and a team took one of them a few picks earlier… you take the only one left. See Jake Moody being taken by the 49ers two years ago at 99, the Pats taking Ryland soon after at 112.

This isn’t so different from the 2022 draft when Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson went in the middle of the first round. There were only 3 blue chip guards in that draft class, the Pats took the last one at the end of the first round and people lost their minds. If you have a need to fill, you need a starter… very often need overrides best player available. We see teams reach or take average QB prospects too high every year. Desperation leads to risky picks.

 

[JayNM]

Put me on the field coach

 

[n1997y]

The best way to get (and ruin) an elite QB is to suck.

FIFY. jk, partly. But realistically the draft stacks the deck against elite rookie QB prospects by having them almost always drafted by a team that sucks and will throw them into the fire immediately. Mahomes was a rare exception. Brady escaped that fate by not looking like an elite prospect.

 

[n1997y]

Best way is to keep swinging for a QB in the 1st round and hope it's a good QB draft. Then hope he keeps his head on straight (Deshaun Watson). Trying for a QB in the 2nd through 7th is dog food. Waste of resources. Over 25 years only a handful have a panned out.

The record over the last several years including the Mahomes draft is 17 good QBs, 9 bad QBs. This counts Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield as good QBs, Sam Darnold as bad, and no count for JJ McCarthy.

You hit on what I think is the best way. Except I’m not going to limit it to first round. More on my thoughts about strategy in a moment.

First though I want to ask you to unpack your comment about “17 good QBs, 9 bad QBs”, mostly because I think the good/bad dichotomy is overly simplistic and thus does more to obscure than inform. Maybe breaking out letter grades would help, how many A grades vs B grades vs C grades? Or maybe what’s the difference? I started by looking at Brady, Mahomes, and Allen, and then I questioned if Allen was really in the same category as the other two. Then when I look at your evaluation of Lawerence and Mayfield as good and Darnold as bad my question is whether Darnold is really not in the same category as those other two?

Anyway, going back to that strategy, I think the key is to keep taking swings at the QB position, even when you’ve got a good but maybe not great incumbent. Best case, you upgrade Alex Smith to Pat Mahomes or Drew Bledsoe to TB12. Worst case you parley a sixth round pick for Joe Milton plus a seventh round pick into a fifth round pick. In between, maybe you get a Matt Cassell or a Jimmy G or even a Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer. For a few years it seemed Belichick had the Patriots set up in a side gig developing NFL QBs, spending a late round pick on a developmental QB prospect, getting a couple of years of backup QB from them before flipping them for another draft pick. Wash, rinse, repeat.

The Niners provide an interesting example. They had Jimmy G for a couple of good years and a couple of injury years, got impatient with him and spent a huge amount of draft capital to go get Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 draft. Then in 2022 they spent their last pick to make Brock Purdy Mr. Irrelevant. Now they’ve got nothing to show for their investment in Trey Lance, and decided to open the vault in order to extend Mr. Irrelevant. Go figure!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Anyway, going back to that strategy, I think the key is to keep taking swings at the QB position, even when you’ve got a good but maybe not great incumbent. Best case, you upgrade Alex Smith to Pat Mahomes or Drew Bledsoe to TB12. Worst case you parley a sixth round pick for Joe Milton plus a seventh round pick into a fifth round pick. In between, maybe you get a Matt Cassell or a Jimmy G or even a Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer. For a few years it seemed Belichick had the Patriots set up in a side gig developing NFL QBs, spending a late round pick on a developmental QB prospect, getting a couple of years of backup QB from them before flipping them for another draft pick. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I don't think that this was what he wanted to do, necessarily, so much as he was basically forced into it. From about 2006 to 2017, all of Brady's backups were on their rookie deals. That's because the alternative was to overpay veterans, because they would have to know coming in that they had absolutely no path to starting other than injury.

 

[Sorrynotsorry]

.

 

[upstater1]

You hit on what I think is the best way. Except I’m not going to limit it to first round. More on my thoughts about strategy in a moment.

First though I want to ask you to unpack your comment about “17 good QBs, 9 bad QBs”, mostly because I think the good/bad dichotomy is overly simplistic and thus does more to obscure than inform. Maybe breaking out letter grades would help, how many A grades vs B grades vs C grades? Or maybe what’s the difference? I started by looking at Brady, Mahomes, and Allen, and then I questioned if Allen was really in the same category as the other two. Then when I look at your evaluation of Lawerence and Mayfield as good and Darnold as bad my question is whether Darnold is really not in the same category as those other two?

Anyway, going back to that strategy, I think the key is to keep taking swings at the QB position, even when you’ve got a good but maybe not great incumbent. Best case, you upgrade Alex Smith to Pat Mahomes or Drew Bledsoe to TB12. Worst case you parley a sixth round pick for Joe Milton plus a seventh round pick into a fifth round pick. In between, maybe you get a Matt Cassell or a Jimmy G or even a Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer. For a few years it seemed Belichick had the Patriots set up in a side gig developing NFL QBs, spending a late round pick on a developmental QB prospect, getting a couple of years of backup QB from them before flipping them for another draft pick. Wash, rinse, repeat.

The Niners provide an interesting example. They had Jimmy G for a couple of good years and a couple of injury years, got impatient with him and spent a huge amount of draft capital to go get Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 draft. Then in 2022 they spent their last pick to make Brock Purdy Mr. Irrelevant. Now they’ve got nothing to show for their investment in Trey Lance, and decided to open the vault in order to extend Mr. Irrelevant. Go figure!

I looked at hundreds of QBs picked after the first in the last 20 odd years, and less than 10 became starters. Your chances of finding a bonafide top 15 starter are less than 5% after the 1st round. Whereas in the 1st round, they are closer to 50%

 

[Huckleberry1]

And even then, you have to be lucky that the top 3 pick you take at QB doesn’t suck. Happens all the time.

I don’t think that’s luck, I think it’s player evaluation. I’m no expert at breaking down QB skills but even I knew that Zach Wilson and Trey Lance were going to suck before they were drafted.

 

[Bill Lee]

one, Mahomes, was a clearly superior prospect who developed and was promoted to replace an established star (Alex Smith);

I don't think it was that clear that he was superior. He was drafted 10th, so 9 other teams could have picked him, and many others could have traded up for him. KC did trade up for him and it cost them their next year's #1, but in hindsight they would do it all over again.

 

[Rob0729]

It is all luck. You can't just suck because you cannot guarantee you will be in position to draft the right QB unless you are the worst team in the league. Even then, you could get a bust or disappointment (see Trevor Lawrence, Jaemis Winston, Baker Mayfield, etc.). And guys like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen weren't even the second QB drafted in their respective drafts.

Obviously Brady was the greatest stroke of luck in NFL history. In another situation, he might have never even been given a chance and been bounced out of the league.

It is also about development and being in a good system. I think a lot of teams ruin good QB prospects putting them behind awful lines with no receivers and horrible schemes. Would Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence lived up to their generational talent monikers on other teams. Luck probably since he almost did.

On the flip side, Purdy would probably have never been successful on another team. He fell into the perfect situation of talent and coaching.

 

[OldEngland]

If you take 'elite' as potential HOF QB, you could look at the candidates from the 2000s. For arguments sake let's just limit it to Brady, Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Brees and maybe Roethlisberger.

1) Use a 1st round pick. Not necessarily top 10.
2) Have a really good structure for the QB to go in. Solid team with good HC. In early years have either an amazing D, or a great offensive talent and minds around the QB
3) be able to let them sit at least a year
4) Luck. All of them have serious intangibles in their own way.

1) Do you need a top 10 pick?
Only a couple of top 10 picks in the players above, but lots of 1st rounders. Manning was pick 1, Mahomes 10, Rapist 11, Rodgers 24, Brees 32, Brady 199. It is interesting that nearly all of them were considered fallers in the draft. But the conclusion is you need to use a 1st rounder.

2) Do you need a really solid structure around them?
Brady and Mahomes had future HOF HCs in their primes with great D and O respectively in their early years. Rodgers one of the best franchises in GB. Rapist a great running game, D and HC. Brees is an exception, ok in SD but great once got with Payton in NO. Manning had James and Harrison early in his career.
This is probably the most important thing, how many highly drafted QBs fail because of of bad coaching, ownership, oline, or a bad team and having to do too much?

3) Sit or play as a rookie?
Only Manning and Rapist played as rookies. Manning wasn't great. Rapist was supposed to be 3rd on the depth chart, but injuries and form meant he started, but he had a seriously good running game, D and HC around him. All the others had the luxury of sitting for at least a year, and not just sitting but behind really good QBs like Bledsoe, Favre, and Alex Smith.

4) They all had intangibles of head and/or heart. All had the desire to play into late 30s (we'll see about Mahomes). The least physically talented ones in Brady and Brees (and Manning before the neck) seemed to get better with age.

Conclusion
Best way to get an elite QB is don't suck! Have a stable franchise with a good HC and great D or O already. Draft a faller in the first round, and preferably sit them a year or two behind a good experienced starter. Then get very lucky.

 

[Vindicate]

Almost most importantly, have a good developmental system in place. You have to wonder how many QB's have been ruined because they got drafted to the ****tiest organization. I don't think Lawrence was a generation talent as he was billed to be, but I also think he looks much better in a competent system.

IMO this type of scenario is oft-glossed over - maybe because they'd never change how the draft runs - and is potentially skewing data like the kind we're discussing.

 

[Raccoonsuit]

Every team wants an elite QB. But what’s the best way to get one? The discussion of Purdy’s extension suggests there are different strategies, so which is best?

Is it better to churn through candidates until one emerges? Or sign a good prospect hoping they’ll get better?

It might be instructive to look at the last few elite QBs to see how they emerged. That raises another question: who are they?

For starters, who are the last five generational QBs to play in the NFL? Two are easy, Brady and Mahomes. After them, who else? Allen? Is he truly generational? Maybe we have to go back to Montana and Starr to find clearly generational talents, so perhaps it would be easier to find the top QBs of the past five to ten years and look at how they emerged.

For now, looking just at Brady, Mahomes, and Allen: one, Allen, stepped into a QB void; one, Mahomes, was a clearly superior prospect who developed and was promoted to replace an established star (Alex Smith); and one, Brady, was an unheralded rookie who developed behind the scenes until a fluke injury gave him the opportunity to supplant an established star (Drew Bledsoe) and he never looked back. So no common thread evident there.

What’s the best way to bag a unicorn, or roster an elite NFL QB?

Allen stepped into a qb void but he was unheralded as a dude from Wyoming who was a gamer but also super raw. He's put in a ton of work mentally and physically and it showed up on the field. He clicks with Joe Brady too which is freaky important.

Mahomes was drafted after..Trubisky. And he's benefited greatly with Andy Reid as his coach.

Lamar was overlooked a ton in his draft. Solid coaching and lamars obviously great. And then burrow who's had great chemistry with his buddy jamar.

But overall stable coaching and some good defenses too that help shoulder the load. Jalen hurts is great but the eagles roster construction is top notch so how much is that him vs the system and teammates?

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I remember us laughing about Allen, because he was HORRENDOUS.
He learned a few things, and he's not Horrendous any more.
I think he learned a lot once he had a WR that knew where he should be, and then instructed the rest.
Diggs is a great WR, I hope he doesn't hurt himself doing more than he should...I was a bit worried when I saw his video...all I could think of was water in his knee, which NOONE wants.

 

[Huckleberry1]

If you take 'elite' as potential HOF QB, you could look at the candidates from the 2000s. For arguments sake let's just limit it to Brady, Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Brees and maybe Roethlisberger.

1) Use a 1st round pick. Not necessarily top 10.
2) Have a really good structure for the QB to go in. Solid team with good HC. In early years have either an amazing D, or a great offensive talent and minds around the QB
3) be able to let them sit at least a year
4) Luck. All of them have serious intangibles in their own way.

1) Do you need a top 10 pick?
Only a couple of top 10 picks in the players above, but lots of 1st rounders. Manning was pick 1, Mahomes 10, Rapist 11, Rodgers 24, Brees 32, Brady 199. It is interesting that nearly all of them were considered fallers in the draft. But the conclusion is you need to use a 1st rounder.

2) Do you need a really solid structure around them?
Brady and Mahomes had future HOF HCs in their primes with great D and O respectively in their early years. Rodgers one of the best franchises in GB. Rapist a great running game, D and HC. Brees is an exception, ok in SD but great once got with Payton in NO. Manning had James and Harrison early in his career.
This is probably the most important thing, how many highly drafted QBs fail because of of bad coaching, ownership, oline, or a bad team and having to do too much?

3) Sit or play as a rookie?
Only Manning and Rapist played as rookies. Manning wasn't great. Rapist was supposed to be 3rd on the depth chart, but injuries and form meant he started, but he had a seriously good running game, D and HC around him. All the others had the luxury of sitting for at least a year, and not just sitting but behind really good QBs like Bledsoe, Favre, and Alex Smith.

4) They all had intangibles of head and/or heart. All had the desire to play into late 30s (we'll see about Mahomes). The least physically talented ones in Brady and Brees (and Manning before the neck) seemed to get better with age.

Conclusion
Best way to get an elite QB is don't suck! Have a stable franchise with a good HC and great D or O already. Draft a faller in the first round, and preferably sit them a year or two behind a good experienced starter. Then get very lucky.

There seems to be confusion here, as most of the responses are about developing a young QB, which is fine, it’s a worthwhile discussion. But the best way to get one is still to suck, because that’s what gives you the most shots at the quarterback you want to develop.

 

[rkarp1]

elite QB's are QB's that win SB's, right?
not the strongest arms. not the fastest.
that's Hurts, Mahomes and Stafford, and if he plays, Rodgers. (not sure how much Flacco or Russ will play)

great coaching. good to very good supporting cast. healthy. hard working. smart.

 

[Thelonious]

Pray.

I prayed for rain yesterday. Enjoy.