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We all want the Pats to make the playoffs this year. A big step towards doing that will come from doing no worse than 2nd in the division. While beating the Bills and winning the division should be the overall goal, that is a big ask. So i think since we have some down time it be nice to do some break downs of teams we will be directly competing with for a playoff birth. It may be nice to do all 15 other AFC teams. But i doubt people would want that. Do we need to have a break down of how bad the Jets are or how KC and Baltimore are probably still really good teams? It could be interesting and give a deeper look into predicting the exact pecking order. For now I will just stick to Miami. If people want more we can do more.
So let's go over how Miami did last year. They finished 8-9, but 6-5 under Tua. They were 22nd in PPG and 10th in Points against.
Notable players on offense.
Hill at 30 years old had his worst year last year in a long time... He played all 17 games but failed to break 1000 yards and may have lost a step. Also he made negative comments about the team so it's hard to know where he will fit in next year. Jonnu Smith had a career year at 29 with almost 900 yards, but also had more targets thrown his way than ever by a large amount at 111. His YPC were actually some of the worst in his career. Waddle also had his worst year so far by a good amount, but with him being so young it isn't a long shot he bounces back somewhat. Achane who was amazing last year in limited action was given a much larger role, and while he still showed well as a pass catcher, he lost a lot of efficiency being more central to the offense. Going from a sensational almost 8 yards per attempt to a respectable but not game breaking 4.5. Their OL was slightly subpar overall, but there are some bright spots. Brewer is a very solid Center. Armstead while older is still fantastic at OT. Outside of that it was hit or miss. They don't have anyone I know of coming up for a year 2 jump.
On defense they have some good players but no one made the probowl in this aging group. Not old... just a little concerning for their future prospects and maybe they could lose a little this year. Jalen Ramsey CB was 30 last year. He's still borderline elite... but not a true elite perhaps. Sieler is 29 and was their best pass rusher but should have plenty left in the tank. Brooks at LB is currently the heart of the D and a tackling machine. Fuller is one of the only true impact defenders who missed any time as far as i know. and while i say impact defender i don't mean he is amazing. Just solid as a #2 CB at this point. He had a bad season for him last year due to injuries, but still was a #2 level guy overall IMO. They could have done much worse. One of their best players overall on D was safety Jevon Holland, but he had a bit of a down year. They had 1 notable rookie this year in Chop Robinson at LB. He showed up well for them and could be a force this year. He's their only rookie who really contributed much of anything. Campbell somehow still looked good at 38. Benito is a solid enough NT i guess. Ogbah at 31 was a serviceable starter, but it seems clear his best games are behind him. The underrated guy for them is probably their nickle CB Kohou. Poyer their FS looked old and maybe done at 33. And of course, we can't forget Bradley Chubb was hurt all year. The only impact defender to miss more than 7 games. This group was overall solid on all levels. They were 10th in Points Against for a reason.
So lets' talk free agency. First their cap situation isn't good. They have barely any room and actually are currently over the cap for 2026. I don't see much they can do to move around contracts or cuts to make to free up a bunch of money easily. They won't be adding anyone else of importance the rest of this or next year most likely.
Key losses:
Fuller: CB (unsigned still... i guess teams are nervous about his injury history). Holland S, Poyer S (but he wasn't so great anyway). Campbell DL... Robert Jones OG (Kinda) Ogbah Edge (kinda) and Poyer played a lot of snaps but not amazing... But he will be retiring i believe if he hasn't already. Also Armstead who was their best OL man at their most impact spot retired. So there is that.
Key Gains:
Chubb (back from injury) James Daniels G (should be an upgrade i think) Jaelan Phillips missed most of the last 2 years... he's good, but will he be able to play close to a full season? He seems to have a history of injuries. Will he even look the same? IDK.
Overall while they are getting a very good player back and an upgrade at guard... it is hard to say on the whole they are gaining more than they lost in FA.
Draft wise they are getting no obvious guys to make the second year jump for them outside of Club, and a lot of hopes pinned on Paul Patrick OT who hasn't shown much... And here are their picks this year.
Grant - DT (13th) Savaiianaea G (37th) and Phillips Edge (143rd) is probably a good get too.. many considered it good value. No one else seems overly likely to have an impact, but we will see. So they have 2 guys who should plug right in and contribute... Phillips might make a good rotational guy this year and we will see what else next year? But he could surprise.
On the whole this team if Tua doesn't miss time again (something he has managed only once) seems poised for a slight decline in my estimation. It is hard to say their roster is better than year than last year even with Chubb coming back. They have some youth coming in maybe... but last years draft didn't help much and this years draft has hopefully 3 players who help. Hopefully... And we know it doesn't always work out like you hope and the more options the better. They need to hit on all 3... they probably won't.
Where did they improve really? The OL? I don't think so. Armstead is a huge hit and upgrading one guard and a rookie who should hopefully plug and play the other spot probably isn't enough to offset it. Maybe your just as good if Patrick (2nd year OT) shows up and can be serviceable... IDK if he can be that. WR? No. RB? No. TE? No. QB? Well you got a back up... so i guess yes. This offense has a chance to bounce back a bit, but Hill seems uninterested in that and is looking a tad slower... They don't have great options if he isn't absolutely elite. I by elite i mean much closer to his 1400-1700 yard per year than what we saw in 2024. see this offense looking a lot like last years.
On D the DL is probably a wash. Lose Campbell gain Grant... Maybe a slight upgrade unless he has a particularly strong year 1 for a rookie, which can happen. It could be an upgrade. LB is a gainer. Chubb and Club on the edge will be better. The DBs are kind of a huge question mark though... will Ramsay slip at all if he is even there? How do they make up for losing Fuller and Holland? They didn't do much to replace either.... Poyer wasn't good but at least he was a vet.. Now you have some new no name guy come in. Who knows if what you get will be better. This D is really hoping the improved edge play helps Ramsay and Kohou hold it together back there... I don't think it will be enough. If the back end could represent some kind of resistance this front could cause some real issues, but there are too many holes in it imo. And this front 7/6 while good isn't good enough to cover for it. I think the D takes a step back.
On the whole i think this team is worse than last years and while they have some upside potential it is hard to know if this unhelpful locker room culture will be able to tap into it. They have more star players on the way down than the way up. I think the Pats should be able to finish ahead of them.
This team feels like a 7-10 team to me with 9-8 hopes. 9-8 if Tua only misses a few games this year. Hill applies himself a bit more than last year (though i think it's fair to say his days of 1700 yards are well behind him. Maybe 1200 if he gets really in shape and maintains the most of what he has). Also they need Waddle to be closer to where he was before last year. Though it seems clear a fair amount of his top end production was due to the attention Hill attracted. With Hill not being that guy anymore he may never be a 1K WR again but he can probably do better than he did. Even more easily if Hill gets on message.
Those things happen and they stay relatively healthy. I could see 9-8 but that is probably their absolute best case. 10-7 seems too unlikely even if they do end up splitting with the Pats.
So let's go over how Miami did last year. They finished 8-9, but 6-5 under Tua. They were 22nd in PPG and 10th in Points against.
Notable players on offense.
Hill at 30 years old had his worst year last year in a long time... He played all 17 games but failed to break 1000 yards and may have lost a step. Also he made negative comments about the team so it's hard to know where he will fit in next year. Jonnu Smith had a career year at 29 with almost 900 yards, but also had more targets thrown his way than ever by a large amount at 111. His YPC were actually some of the worst in his career. Waddle also had his worst year so far by a good amount, but with him being so young it isn't a long shot he bounces back somewhat. Achane who was amazing last year in limited action was given a much larger role, and while he still showed well as a pass catcher, he lost a lot of efficiency being more central to the offense. Going from a sensational almost 8 yards per attempt to a respectable but not game breaking 4.5. Their OL was slightly subpar overall, but there are some bright spots. Brewer is a very solid Center. Armstead while older is still fantastic at OT. Outside of that it was hit or miss. They don't have anyone I know of coming up for a year 2 jump.
On defense they have some good players but no one made the probowl in this aging group. Not old... just a little concerning for their future prospects and maybe they could lose a little this year. Jalen Ramsey CB was 30 last year. He's still borderline elite... but not a true elite perhaps. Sieler is 29 and was their best pass rusher but should have plenty left in the tank. Brooks at LB is currently the heart of the D and a tackling machine. Fuller is one of the only true impact defenders who missed any time as far as i know. and while i say impact defender i don't mean he is amazing. Just solid as a #2 CB at this point. He had a bad season for him last year due to injuries, but still was a #2 level guy overall IMO. They could have done much worse. One of their best players overall on D was safety Jevon Holland, but he had a bit of a down year. They had 1 notable rookie this year in Chop Robinson at LB. He showed up well for them and could be a force this year. He's their only rookie who really contributed much of anything. Campbell somehow still looked good at 38. Benito is a solid enough NT i guess. Ogbah at 31 was a serviceable starter, but it seems clear his best games are behind him. The underrated guy for them is probably their nickle CB Kohou. Poyer their FS looked old and maybe done at 33. And of course, we can't forget Bradley Chubb was hurt all year. The only impact defender to miss more than 7 games. This group was overall solid on all levels. They were 10th in Points Against for a reason.
So lets' talk free agency. First their cap situation isn't good. They have barely any room and actually are currently over the cap for 2026. I don't see much they can do to move around contracts or cuts to make to free up a bunch of money easily. They won't be adding anyone else of importance the rest of this or next year most likely.
Key losses:
Fuller: CB (unsigned still... i guess teams are nervous about his injury history). Holland S, Poyer S (but he wasn't so great anyway). Campbell DL... Robert Jones OG (Kinda) Ogbah Edge (kinda) and Poyer played a lot of snaps but not amazing... But he will be retiring i believe if he hasn't already. Also Armstead who was their best OL man at their most impact spot retired. So there is that.
Key Gains:
Chubb (back from injury) James Daniels G (should be an upgrade i think) Jaelan Phillips missed most of the last 2 years... he's good, but will he be able to play close to a full season? He seems to have a history of injuries. Will he even look the same? IDK.
Overall while they are getting a very good player back and an upgrade at guard... it is hard to say on the whole they are gaining more than they lost in FA.
Draft wise they are getting no obvious guys to make the second year jump for them outside of Club, and a lot of hopes pinned on Paul Patrick OT who hasn't shown much... And here are their picks this year.
Grant - DT (13th) Savaiianaea G (37th) and Phillips Edge (143rd) is probably a good get too.. many considered it good value. No one else seems overly likely to have an impact, but we will see. So they have 2 guys who should plug right in and contribute... Phillips might make a good rotational guy this year and we will see what else next year? But he could surprise.
On the whole this team if Tua doesn't miss time again (something he has managed only once) seems poised for a slight decline in my estimation. It is hard to say their roster is better than year than last year even with Chubb coming back. They have some youth coming in maybe... but last years draft didn't help much and this years draft has hopefully 3 players who help. Hopefully... And we know it doesn't always work out like you hope and the more options the better. They need to hit on all 3... they probably won't.
Where did they improve really? The OL? I don't think so. Armstead is a huge hit and upgrading one guard and a rookie who should hopefully plug and play the other spot probably isn't enough to offset it. Maybe your just as good if Patrick (2nd year OT) shows up and can be serviceable... IDK if he can be that. WR? No. RB? No. TE? No. QB? Well you got a back up... so i guess yes. This offense has a chance to bounce back a bit, but Hill seems uninterested in that and is looking a tad slower... They don't have great options if he isn't absolutely elite. I by elite i mean much closer to his 1400-1700 yard per year than what we saw in 2024. see this offense looking a lot like last years.
On D the DL is probably a wash. Lose Campbell gain Grant... Maybe a slight upgrade unless he has a particularly strong year 1 for a rookie, which can happen. It could be an upgrade. LB is a gainer. Chubb and Club on the edge will be better. The DBs are kind of a huge question mark though... will Ramsay slip at all if he is even there? How do they make up for losing Fuller and Holland? They didn't do much to replace either.... Poyer wasn't good but at least he was a vet.. Now you have some new no name guy come in. Who knows if what you get will be better. This D is really hoping the improved edge play helps Ramsay and Kohou hold it together back there... I don't think it will be enough. If the back end could represent some kind of resistance this front could cause some real issues, but there are too many holes in it imo. And this front 7/6 while good isn't good enough to cover for it. I think the D takes a step back.
On the whole i think this team is worse than last years and while they have some upside potential it is hard to know if this unhelpful locker room culture will be able to tap into it. They have more star players on the way down than the way up. I think the Pats should be able to finish ahead of them.
This team feels like a 7-10 team to me with 9-8 hopes. 9-8 if Tua only misses a few games this year. Hill applies himself a bit more than last year (though i think it's fair to say his days of 1700 yards are well behind him. Maybe 1200 if he gets really in shape and maintains the most of what he has). Also they need Waddle to be closer to where he was before last year. Though it seems clear a fair amount of his top end production was due to the attention Hill attracted. With Hill not being that guy anymore he may never be a 1K WR again but he can probably do better than he did. Even more easily if Hill gets on message.
Those things happen and they stay relatively healthy. I could see 9-8 but that is probably their absolute best case. 10-7 seems too unlikely even if they do end up splitting with the Pats.
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