Safe, conservative draft picks

[lancerman]

I thought you said “ If Carter falls to us at 4 you take him?”

Carter has multiple “ red flags.” He has a broken foot, a damaged shoulder, and serious character concerns.

Campbell has something that makes it doubtful he can even play his position.

Carter is the consensus best defensive player in the draft. He's as safe as any pick in the draft. Probably the safest.

 

[Dec54]

Who are the 21 you are referring to?
What is your basis that they were projected to be Ts.
How many were drafted in the top half of round 1, a unanimous expectation for Campbell.
Campbell has a much, much higher ceiling than Matt Light.

Do you honestly believe a half inch of arm length is more important than talent? Dante Scarnechia doesn’t.

I'm with you Ring. This arm length stuff is so boring now. There is only one part of the male body that half an inch can make a difference. According to my wife.

 

[Water Boy]

Carter is the consensus best defensive player in the draft. He's as safe as any pick in the draft. Probably the safest.

If you don't care about work ethic.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

....or busted feet...

 

[TommyD4207]

Campbell has something that makes it doubtful he can even play his position.

Carter is the consensus best defensive player in the draft. He's as safe as any pick in the draft. Probably the safest.

Penn State football player accused of assaulting tow truck driver

Star Penn State football player Abdul Carter was charged with simple assault.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Who are the 21 you are referring to?
What is your basis that they were projected to be Ts.
How many were drafted in the top half of round 1, a unanimous expectation for Campbell.
Campbell has a much, much higher ceiling than Matt Light.

Do you honestly believe a half inch of arm length is more important than talent? Dante Scarnechia doesn’t.

I don't think the arbitrary threshold of arm length, in and of itself means much. But I think the ability of an OT to make first contact with a pass rusher off the edge without reaching/lunging is critical to playing the position though. If you don't make first contact your opponent drives the rep but if you reach/lunge to do it then you're hugely susceptible to counter moves because now you're off balance and your play strength is diminished. Arm length is brought up in the sense that it's a quantification of an OL's projected ability in this area.

The tape on Campbell seems to back this concern too. Reaching/lunging to make first contact seems to be a regular occurrence for him. But he's able to overcome it because he has tremendous strength and athleticism and otherwise sound technique. BUT, even in the SEC he's playing guys often times still in their teens that haven't fully developed physically yet and EDGE rusher is a position with a lot of raw athletes that are still learning things like counter moves. If he consistently lunges/reaches to give his opponents the first advantage in the rep against pros like he does in college, I'm not sure he's going to have the strength/athleticism advantage to make up for it like he does in college.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I think that this conservative approach is a bit safer and would yield a solid, but maybe not spectacular, haul. However Vrabel is a defensive guy so he could pull a zinger like Malaki Starks! That would light up this forum, but I am confident that Vrabel will not make a horrible pick like Tim Tebow or N'Keal Harry or even Cole Strange.

Anyway if Abdul Carter is available at 4, then things get crazy. I would trade down and pickup Campbell or another top-tier LT later in the first. There is a possibility that Carter may indeed fall of because injury or character concerns.

 

[Steve102]

I think that this conservative approach is a bit safer and would yield a solid, but maybe not spectacular, haul. However Vrabel is a defensive guy so he could pull a zinger like Malaki Starks! That would light up this forum, but I am confident that Vrabel will not make a horrible pick like Tim Tebow or N'Keal Harry or even Cole Strange.

Anyway if Abdul Carter is available at 4, then things get crazy. I would trade down and pickup Campbell or another top-tier LT later in the first. There is a possibility that Carter may indeed fall of because injury or character concerns.

They take Starks at #4, Cap't will 100% start plotting revenge.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

....or busted feet...

A frozen turf field like Gillette is no place for someone with a foot problem.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Short arms are a huge detriment to tackles. No question! First touch and control is important in pass rush and pass defense. Vrabel knows this firsthand!

The running back from Boise is amazing!!! But our offensive line is not giving him any room to run!!!

Graham is a great college defensive lineman, but has to get bigger to survive in the NFL! And if he gets bigger, does he lose that first step????

The defensive end/linebacker from Georgia makes plays!! Lots of plays!!! He does not fit the traditional build/role/style, but he makes plays!!!!

The safest pick (after hunter and Adbul) might be the tight end from penn state!! He makes plays in the passing game and the running game!!!! Lots of plays!!! But 4 is too high to take him!!

 

[ViperGTS]

Short arms are a huge detriment to tackles. No question! First touch and control is important in pass rush and pass defense. Vrabel knows this firsthand!

The running back from Boise is amazing!!! But our offensive line is not giving him any room to run!!!

Graham is a great college defensive lineman, but has to get bigger to survive in the NFL! And if he gets bigger, does he lose that first step????

The defensive end/linebacker from Georgia makes plays!! Lots of plays!!! He does not fit the traditional build/role/style, but he makes plays!!!!

The safest pick (after hunter and Adbul) might be the tight end from penn state!! He makes plays in the passing game and the running game!!!! Lots of plays!!! But 4 is too high to take him!!

I am leaning that way. I get worried it's going to be Campbell and that scares me. I think he is going to be a guard, and how good of a guard will he be? Nobody really knows. I agree, I'd trade back a bit and then see what can happen. Staying at 4 to me, isn't good business.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

They take Starks at #4, Cap't will 100% start plotting revenge.

Even worse: Imagine if they take Starks (or another safety such as Nick Emmanwori) at 4 even though Carter and/or Hunter is available? Boom!!!! Then we would see a serious meltdown.

This would be a typical BB move; it might work out but then he would follow it up with a trade down for an LT that no one has heard of such as Dolf Ólafsson from Mooseknuckle, Saskatchewan, a champion log roller.

But seriously, we do not know if Vrabel is that crazy, but I am sure he is gonna wince when Starks is selected by some other team such as the Dolphins.

If they do not take Campbell at 4, then there will be a mad scramble and some serious nail-biting to find a LT. It would be very exciting, but I hope they have someone better at trades than Wolf (the fleecing they got on the Milton trade does not bode well).

A pick of Starks or Nick Emmanwori is maybe not that crazy. Jabrill Peppers could be on thin ice with Vrabel; he may not be the type of guy he wants for the team. And I have to believe that Bob Kraft wants to dump him. Vrabel is probably waiting until training camp to decide if Peppers can be replaced. That would suck; Peppers stuck out in practice as one of the best guys on the field, I expect that the Patriots will be drafting a safety somewhere in the draft, but probably not in round 1.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think the arbitrary threshold of arm length, in and of itself means much. But I think the ability of an OT to make first contact with a pass rusher off the edge without reaching/lunging is critical to playing the position though. If you don't make first contact your opponent drives the rep but if you reach/lunge to do it then you're hugely susceptible to counter moves because now you're off balance and your play strength is diminished. Arm length is brought up in the sense that it's a quantification of an OL's projected ability in this area.

The tape on Campbell seems to back this concern too. Reaching/lunging to make first contact seems to be a regular occurrence for him. But he's able to overcome it because he has tremendous strength and athleticism and otherwise sound technique. BUT, even in the SEC he's playing guys often times still in their teens that haven't fully developed physically yet and EDGE rusher is a position with a lot of raw athletes that are still learning things like counter moves. If he consistently lunges/reaches to give his opponents the first advantage in the rep against pros like he does in college, I'm not sure he's going to have the strength/athleticism advantage to make up for it like he does in college.

1 inch 2 of arm length doesn’t change that. If you play with proper technique, it is completely meaningless.
You aren’t reaching and longing over an inch

 

[TheRainMaker]

If Will Campbell's ceiling is Nate Solder or Matt Light, then the Pats should trade down.

 

[raduray]

It also hasn't been determined if he is strictly a right or left tackle.

That's the question, isn't it? Campbell, an outstanding SEC LT with short arms, vs Membou, an outstanding SEC RT with slightly (less than an inch) longer arms, when the need is at LT.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

They take Starks at #4, Cap't will 100% start plotting revenge.

#CARNAGE

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

If Will Campbell's ceiling is Nate Solder or Matt Light, then the Pats should trade down.

Yes, trading down makes total sense, but who is going to be willing to trade up? There will not enough trade bait for someone to trade up. What are they going to do? Trade up and select Campbell? There needs to be someone available at 4 that would drive a GM (or owner, ugh) mad with player lust. Campbell is not that person nor is Sanders or Jeanty......however if Abdul Carter falls to 4, then there will be some owner (the meddling type) who believes all the draft guides and will be crazy, mad to get him and Patriots can extract a lot of picks.

 

[Steve102]

Yes, trading down makes total sense, but who is going to be willing to trade up? There will not enough trade bait for someone to trade up. What are they going to do? Trade up and select Campbell? There needs to be someone available at 4 that would drive a GM (or owner, ugh) mad with player lust. Campbell is not that person nor is Sanders or Jeanty......however if Abdul Carter falls to 4, then there will be some owner (the meddling type) who believes all the draft guides and will be crazy, mad to get him and Patriots can extract a lot of picks.

I don't think it's going to be a lot. I think your scenario has merit if Carter or hunter are there at #4, but I think they are gonna get lowballed.

 

[rochrist]

Take Ashton Jeanty, provided they find an even okay left tackle solution and can block at all... he is probably the best safest player in the draft.

As an aside, I would never advocate for them taking a RB that high, nor do I see RB as a position of need. He is just that good.

But if you go position of need... take Membou.

I'd be elated with Henderson. Get him later in the draft, and he may not have the bell cow ability of Jeanty, but he has all the home run potential in the world. That kid gets a seam and he's gone!

 

[TheRainMaker]

The name Ashton Jeanty reminds me of Alvin Gentry and Alshon Jeffrey.