How valuable is the 4th pick or 2nd taken WR? Let's find out

[BobDigital]

For this thread I will be examining the recent drafts. I will look at the top players and see how big a difference it makes. For this break down i will focus on the first 4 non QB players taken and the top half of the draft for WRs for the most part. At least I'll pretty much ignore late first rounders.


2024 - This draft went QB QB QB, Harrison JR. WR, Joe Alt OT, Nabers WR, JC Latham OT.
In this draft the 2nd WR taken was the better one so far, Also Joe Alt had a really solid year. The 3rd WR taken did well too, but not as well as the above (Rome Odunze Taken 9th). Latham had a fairly average rookie year and played below his pick. Maybe he turns it around.


2023 - This draft went QB QB LB QB CB OT DE .
The top WRs taken were Smith-Njigba, Johnston, Flowers and Addison at 20, 21, 22 and 23 respectively, so the pick placements make this less important but... While Smith has been the best overall Addison and Flowers aren't far behind. In this class the 2nd best WR taken was the worst, Also of the top non QB picks both Anderson LB and Witherspoon CB have turned out to be very good players. And While he hasn't been too a pro bowl, OT Paris Johnson has done very well too. Tyree Wilson was the 4th non QB taken and a bust. Overall The first WR was the best but close to equal options were there as well. And of the top non-QBs taken before 6 they were good.


2022 - This draft went DE DE CB CB.
Travon Walker, Aiden Hutchinson, Derek Singley and Sauce Gardner. The top WRs taken were Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams at 8 10 11 and 12 respectively. This was a bit different as no QBs were taken early. The first player taken has been the worst, but that doesn't mean he is bad. Just not as good.. The next 3 are all good. Of the WRs taken the first 3 have been more or less equally good (I don't hold Olave's injury against him) and whill Williams has been slow going he did hit 1K yards last year. So Being the first or second WR made no real difference nor did being the 1st 2nd 3rd or 4th non QB.


2021 - QB QB QB TE WR WR OT.
So yeah. First WR was Chase, and he is an absolute stud, no twos ways about it. But he was the 2nd non-QB taken and 5th player. Pitts after a great first year has been a bit dissapointing. Waddle was the 2nd WR taken. Waddle is a very good WR with 3 1,000 yard years. OT Sewell is a very good OT. As for other WRs DeVonta Smith is the only other guy taken in the top half of the 1st (10th) and is a very good WR who would have likely had his 3rd straight 1K year if not for injuries. So this is the poster year for how much it can hurt missing out on the top WR. The next 2 were good though. And outside of the top 2 picks the next 2 picks were also pretty good.


2020 - QB DE CB OT QB QB DT.
The non QBs were Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas and Derrick Brown in that order. Young with a great first year, but fell apart after due to injuries (though maybe not only that... who knows) Okudah has been a bust. Thomas has been good to very good when healthy. Brown has had a good career so far though he missed all of last year. As for WRs. Ruggs, Jeudy and Lamb were taken at 12th 15th and 17th. And while other absolutely great WRs were taken after I am not sure of the point of talking below that as we already have the first 3... though it is of note than Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk were picked at 21st, 22nd and 25th . Obviously Lambs was the best. Ruggs is the bust. Jeudy is has been good on bad offenses but showed what he can do last year. So the 3rd guy taken was the best. First was a bust. And no one clearly had much of a clue where these guys should be ranked at WR. Also as for top 4 non QBs. seems rather random


2019 - QB DE DT DE LB QB.
The non QBs in order Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell Devin White. Ferrell is a bust pretty much. The other 3 are really good. Bosa is the best player but Williams is close and White is nothing to sneeze at. First WR taken at 25.. so not really a relevant data set. For completeness though. Hollywood Brown and N'Keal Harry were the 1st rounders at 25 and 32. Round 2 had better guys. Yeah.... it sure did....


2018 - QB RB QB CB DE OG
Top 4 were Barkley, Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb and Quenton Nelson. First player off the board is probably the best, but all really good. For WRs none were taken till picks 24 and 26 (DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley). Make of the order what you will if anything.


2017 - DE QB DE RB WR
The first 4 non QBs taken were Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, Fournette and Corey Davis. Garrett has been really good. The next 3 have shown good flashes and years but mostly dissapointed. The WRs taken after were Mike Williams, John Ross at 7 and 9. Williams was the best but none proved worthy of their pick


2016 - QB QB DE RB CB OT.
The first 4 non QBs were Joey Bosa, Elliot, Jalen Ramsay Ronnie Stanley. All of them have had good careers but Ramsay is the best. WRs were Corey Collman, Will Fuller and Josh Doctson at 15, 21 and 22.. So again not all that helpful. Just as well as all busted.


2015 - QB QB DE WR OT DE.
First non QBs were Dante Fowler, Amari Cooper, Brandon Scherff and Leonard Williams. Scherff is the best here, But Williams and Cooper have been good too. Fowler certainly didn't live up but had some good seasons. For other WRs taken Kevin White DeVonte Parker and Nelson Agholor at 7 14 20. Cooper is clearly the best. White was a total bust. Parker had 1 memorable year and Holor was a career #2.


So that is 10 years of data. As for what it means... i have some ideas I'll put in this thread later, but feel free to make your thoughts clear whenever

 

[Triumph]

Where the WR pick is selected is less of an issue than how to identify an NFL caliber stud WR.

The Pats have had clowns picking its WRs.

 

[BobDigital]

So some thoughts i noticed when looking at this 10 year sample.

1 - In the 1st 4 non QB picks, the first player taken is only a bit more likely than any other to be the best player compared to any of the other 3... So missing out on the top prospect while not ideal isn't as bad as often believed. Of course the real value of the 1st pick is a possible trade down for a QB particularly compared to other prospects. But that aside while you want a higher pick, your odds of getting the top player if you get the 2nd or 3rd ranked guy (as usually QBs knock other down) is pretty decent. At 1 a total bust seems less likely though, but that probably won't make you feel much better if you pick the top guy and come away with an okay player.

2 When it comes to WRs the top guy being a huge step up to the a guy you can get after is pretty rare. Yes, we could have a Chase or Cooper situation.... but it isn't likely. It seems almost as likely the next guy is just as good if not better than the first guy as long as they are top prospects. And often top tier guys fall later in the draft than you expect. Yes Chase was a clear game breaker... but Lamb and Jefferson fell through the cracks a good amount. And in cases where you have a bunch of guys ranked closely, its hard to say who will do better, though the first guy is ideal. While i might prefer Hunter, history indicates McMillian has just about as good a shot of being as good or better. And Luther Burden certainly has a decent chance to be the best WR.

3 This is more opinion based.... but a lot of the drafters were the top player is clear is a lot of guys bust after it seem to be somewhat predictable. 2017 was known as the Mylers sweep stakes for a reason. One of the drafts where you REALLY want the first guy. When this isn't the narrative going in, it seems you are a lot safer to not get stuck with a substantially worse chance at a good player.

4. Usually though, the first non-qb player has a much higher chance to be truly special, but that isn't as often as people think. It is less likely than more likely, and fairly predictable from my recollection when you look at the times it happened compared to the hype around those players going in.

 

[BobDigital]

Where the WR pick is selected is less of an issue than how to identify an NFL caliber stud WR.

The Pats have had clowns picking its WRs.

Clearly if the Pats decide to pick a WR.... the responsible thing to do is pick the 10 most popular draft magazines... see how they rank the top WRs... then use those averages to make their list.

 

[Triumph]

Clearly if the Pats decide to pick a WR.... the responsible thing to do is pick the 10 most popular draft magazines... see how they rank the top WRs... then use those averages to make their list.

Why cant the Pats hire someone in scouting from the 49ers, Rams or Steelers?

All 3 teams find WR gold in any round.

 

[Triumph]

Pick 1 is OT and he is a starter in 2025.
Pick 2 is WR. The 36th pick should start too.

 

[VJCPatriot]

At #4 overall we can easily take the first WR off the board. But is Tet McMillan really worth #4 overall? I have my doubts.

We really need to see how free agency pans out though. If we land a starting left tackle in free agency that gives us a lot more freedom in how our draft should unfold. I'm still not averse to a slight trade down as long as we don't land outside the top 10 so we can still take a premium player.

 

[rkarp1]

have the Pats issues at drafted WR's been with their evaluation or their coaching?

 

[KY Pats Fan]

no need in drafting a WR if you can't give Maye time to pass. They have far more pressing needs in the OL. And when has the Pats ever drafted a WR in the past 10 years and developed them You could point to Myers as being the only one, but not sure Pats did him right.

I see only 2 options, fill the OL through free agency, but I don't see high quality tackles and guards that will be available. Staley will most likely stay with Ravens. Chiefs are going to let their guard walk either. If you could get a couple linemen through FA, they maybe, and that's a big maybe, get McMillan, but again, are you going to risk a #4 overall for a "hope". I personally don't think much of Hunter, i think he will wind up being a so-so DB. He won't be able to get separation for NFL CB.

2nd option is get WR in FA and draft Banks or Campbell with #4. I think either of them will be a day 1 starter and can be an anchor like Solder, Volmer and Light were for years.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Sounds like we should be getting a really good player as long as we go bpa and don’t force something