What is Joe Milton worth?

[Patsfan1645]

I think a lot of people are over valuing Milton... 2nds & 3rds for a back up who is a work in progress... Project qbs don't merit that type of draft capital...

I totally agree but its also supply and demand. If your about to run a race and don't have a car you may just have to drive that 2018 Ford Mustang with the V6. Its not ideal but its all thats on the lot that looks like it can move above 60.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Maye left multiple games with injury last year. If they think Milton is an actual starting caliber QB I don't think I'd trade him for a 3rd, even if that is a pretty preposterous rise in value from where he was taken. If Milton ends up never playing at all or getting to play a lot and playing terribly then it'd suck to look back in 3 years (or sooner if he's cut) and see him walk for nothing when we could have gotten a 3rd rounder. But I doubt any of us would really view that as super consequential. If Maye gets injured or flames out and Milton is starting somewhere else (and playing even reasonably well) and we gave him up for a 3rd while we then have to sit there without the QB position settled, then we'll all look back on it as pretty consequential.

 

[patman52]

The likelihood of him playing 2 games next year years after is great, I rather keep him, than trade him for a pick after 75.

our 2nd and Milton for the steelers 21st is something that I could get behind, Keep Wilson for one more year, Milton's Mobility and arm is a smooth transition. Draft chart value wise it is valuing him as a top 5 pick in the 3rd. Backup qbs capable of winning you a game cost 10 mil a year, I rather spend that cap money on a position player.

 

[The Gr8est]

I think a lot of people are over valuing Milton... 2nds & 3rds for a back up who is a work in progress... Project qbs don't merit that type of draft capital...

Milton is what Bill Parcells referred to as a “planet player”, meaning that there are very few people on the planet with his physical talent.

I am in no hurry to move on from Milton without significant motivation to do it.

A 3rd round pick is not enough for me to want to move from him for.

 

[lancerman]

Why should the Pats be in any hurry to move Milton?

He has such value for as a backup/gadget player and he is on a cheap contract.

Another team would need to make a “can’t refuse” offer for me to think they should trade him.

How about a #2 next year, in a stronger draft?

Teams looking to draft a franchise QB this year have slim pickings.

What is it worth to you to get a QB on a cheap contract NOW, who might have as much likelihood to become a franchise QB as anything in the 2025 draft?

He certainly has as much physical talent as any of them.

Because ideally the Patriots never have to play Milton and right now they aren’t in win now so there’s no real downside to getting a somewhat worse backup. Milton on the team right now is not what’s going to save us if Maye gets hurt and keep us in contention.

Meanwhile his value is probably highest now. Unless something goes wrong, he won’t have much playing time the next few years and he has the cheap years on his contract now that give it value.

Jimmy G didn’t go for a first specifically because we waited until the last minute to trade him and the 49’ers were in a position where being forced to negotiate a contract in a few weeks with him was a downside they could leverage against us.

And atleast with Jimmy the argument for him were

1. We are in Super Bowl mode, we need someone to give us a chance if Brady goes down.

2. The Patriots had a QB pushing 40 years old and Jimmy was drafted with the idea that he might be the guy soon and take the baton.

Neither is true for Milton. Nobody in the org thinks the plan is to eventually have him be the successor to a second year QB, and we frankly just are not competing for a SB. There’s more upside in potentially trading Milton and getting someone who can help us win, than there is having a potential safety valve on a rebuilding team.

Also unless Maye ****s the bed, Milton probably is going to want to go somewhere and be a starter if the opportunity comes up.

 

[The Gr8est]

Because ideally the Patriots never have to play Milton and right now they aren’t in win now so there’s no real downside to getting a somewhat worse backup. Milton on the team right now is not what’s going to save us if Maye gets hurt and keep us in contention.

Meanwhile his value is probably highest now. Unless something goes wrong, he won’t have much playing time the next few years and he has the cheap years on his contract now that give it value.

Jimmy G didn’t go for a first specifically because we waited until the last minute to trade him and the 49’ers were in a position where being forced to negotiate a contract in a few weeks with him was a downside they could leverage against us.

And atleast with Jimmy the argument for him were

1. We are in Super Bowl mode, we need someone to give us a chance if Brady goes down.

2. The Patriots had a QB pushing 40 years old and Jimmy was drafted with the idea that he might be the guy soon and take the baton.

Neither is true for Milton. Nobody in the org thinks the plan is to eventually have him be the successor to a second year QB, and we frankly just are not competing for a SB. There’s more upside in potentially trading Milton and getting someone who can help us win, than there is having a potential safety valve on a rebuilding team.

Also unless Maye ****s the bed, Milton probably is going to want to go somewhere and be a starter if the opportunity comes up.

That still doesn’t address the value of using Milton for some gadget plays, but whether the Pats will use him in that regard remains to be seen.

 

[lancerman]

That still doesn’t address the value of using Milton for some gadget plays, but whether the Pats will use him in that regard remains to be seen.

We barely used him for gadget plays this year. We aren’t competing for a SB next year.

We could potentially trade him for something that gets us an actual player consistently on the field and not a guy for one or two plays every few games.

If you can trade Milton for 3rd and get just a rotational offensive or defensive lineman that is solid and can help keep that line fresh, that’s much more valuable than a few gadget plays.

We really aren’t in a position to hold onto a gadget player/back up over trying get real contributors on the field.

It’s totally different if we are a contender and Milton could be a safety net saving our season. But we don’t have the luxury now to pass up opportunities to get real contributors that can consistently be on the field. Especially for the sake of a back up.

 

[maust]

Jimmy G had all the tools and looked like a starting QB and got a second. Milton is probably worth a 5th to other teams. Maybe a 4th if they're desperate. But I think he's worth more to us for now.

Jimmy G was traded at the 11th hour as a pending FA who and in the driver's seat to a mega payday. Milton has 3 years left on a rookie deal at @ $1M AAV. That's a huge difference in control and cost certainty for a potential acquiring team. Not that Milton has shown anything on the field remotely akin to what Garoppolo had but he's definitely a much lower risk from a cap standpoint and that has a value in and of itself. It's not outside the realm of possibility a cap strapped team in need of a QB might be willing to offer a low second rounder or a high 3rd for him.

I'm not saying that return is likely, just that from a contractual viewpoint trading for Milton is not analogous to trading for Jimmy G. That contract is a hella sweetener.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Jimmy G was traded at the 11th hour as a pending FA who and in the driver's seat to a mega payday. Milton has 3 years left on a rookie deal at @ $1M AAV. That's a huge difference in control and cost certainty for a potential acquiring team. Not that Milton has shown anything on the field remotely akin to what Garoppolo had but he's definitely a much lower risk from a cap standpoint and that has a value in and of itself. It's not outside the realm of possibility a cap strapped team in need of a QB might be willing to offer a low second rounder or a high 3rd for him.

I'm not saying that return is likely, just that from a contractual viewpoint trading for Milton is not analogous to trading for Jimmy G. That contract is a hella sweetener.

Fair, though I don't think San Fran was really all that concerned with the cap consequences when they were trying to acquire a QB from us.

 

[maust]

Fair, though I don't think San Fran was really all that concerned with the cap consequences when they were trying to acquire a QB from us.

The point being, it's fair to say any team looking at acquiring Milton would see his contract as quite attractive whereas when Garoppolo was moved his contract situation limited the number of teams willing to trade for him. Business is business after all

 

[mike_usagisan]

The point being, it's fair to say any team looking at acquiring Milton would see his contract as quite attractive whereas when Garoppolo was moved his contract situation limited the number of teams willing to trade for him. Business is business after all

Oh yeah, I certainly take your point and think it's one thing that teams consider. That said, the bigger one for teams is probably do we have a viable starting quarterback or should I get a jumpstart looking for a new job.

 

[maust]

Oh yeah, I certainly take your point and think it's one thing that teams consider. That said, the bigger one for teams is probably do we have a viable starting quarterback or should I get a jumpstart looking for a new job.

Yet another potential argument in favor of acquiring Milton, a GM on a warm seat could maybe buy himself a couple of years grace. Kid's gotta develop, right?

I don't know about anyone else but I'm starting to think the idea that somebody may come a knockin' may not be so far fetched...

 

[mike_usagisan]

Yet another potential argument in favor of acquiring Milton, a GM on a warm seat could maybe buy himself a couple of years grace. Kid's gotta develop, right?

I don't know about anyone else but I'm starting to think the idea that somebody may come a knockin' may not be so far fetched...

Yeah, they just need to sell him to ownership and the fan base that Milton is worth the investment of time. That’s a hard sell on a guy you passed up for many many rounds of the draft last year.

I hope you’re right, but it also feels like we try to talk up our trade bait every year and every year the value is a lot lower than what we thought.

 

[The Gr8est]

Yet another potential argument in favor of acquiring Milton, a GM on a warm seat could maybe buy himself a couple of years grace. Kid's gotta develop, right?

I don't know about anyone else but I'm starting to think the idea that somebody may come a knockin' may not be so far fetched...

Who else is out there as a viable candidate, for a GM to come a knocking’ for at the contract and potential that Milton offers?

 

[maust]

Yeah, they just need to sell him to ownership and the fan base that Milton is worth the investment of time. That’s a hard sell on a guy you passed up for many many rounds of the draft last year.

I hope you’re right, but it also feels like we try to talk up our trade bait every year and every year the value is a lot lower than what we thought.

My honest 1st thought in reaction to the original question was, 'not all that much' and the consideration of how we as fans over value 'our' guys was no small part of it. What has me reconsidering is looking at it from another team's perspective. Suddenly it's not so far fetched

 

[mike_usagisan]

My honest 1st thought in reaction to the original question was, 'not all that much' and the consideration of how we as fans over value 'our' guys was no small part of it. What has me reconsidering is looking at it from another team's perspective. Suddenly it's not so far fetched

Not to get too nerdy about this, but there's some well-known economic psychology that says sellers tend to overvalue what they have and buyers tend to undervalue. Obviously there's ways to negotiate around that, but that tends to be the starting point.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Who else is out there as a viable candidate, for a GM to come a knocking’ for at the contract and potential that Milton offers?

I'm looking at the Saints. They seem like they're in deep ****. A cheap rookie-contract QB might help them try to get out of cap hell.

 

[The Gr8est]

I'm looking at the Saints. They seem like they're in deep ****. A cheap rookie-contract QB might help them try to get out of cap hell.

The Saints have already been mentioned as an interested team.

Need to squeeze them a bit.

We don’t need anything right now, just give us your #2 pick in 2026.

 

[mike_usagisan]

The Saints have already been mentioned as an interested team.

Need to squeeze them a bit.

We don’t need anything right now, just give us your #2 pick in 2026.

They have a WR who might be a nice fit if they need to free up some cap.

 

[maust]

I'm looking at the Saints. They seem like they're in deep ****. A cheap rookie-contract QB might help them try to get out of cap hell.

Any cap relief the Saints get will only be temporary, 'cause Mickey Loomis. And he must know where the Benson's buried all the bodies, otherwise he'd have been gone long ago. Come to think of it that makes them a great potential trade partner. I am really warming up to this idea