The Case Against Eliot Wolf

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don’t disagree with any of that, I’m completely focused on the draft and free agency, as well, but if certain posters try to put the blame for Jordan Richard’s and Aaron Dobson on Wolf I’m going to respond.

I realize Wolf was only 15 then, but that won’t stop them from trying.

Feel free to start a conspiracy theory thread in the PatsFans Pub. Then you can make up theories and respond to them all in one place.

 

[PatsFan2]

Can we blame him for:
Okorafor
Osborn
Polk
Baker
Wallace
Robinson
Takitaki
Tavai extension
Dugger extension
Onwenu extension
Stephenson extension

to name just the ones off the top of my head?
Can we blame him for all of those things which have been abject disasters?
Two or three of those moves over the course of a couple of years is enough to get your GM on the hot seat. ALL of those in ONE OFFSEASON?

I am going to give Wolf another chance: multiple players not developing is on the Coaching. Let's see how Polk - Wallace - Baker and Robinson looks with better Coaching. I am not going to totally give up on the 24 Draft Class pass Drake Maye given the pathetic Coaching.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Can we blame him for:
Okorafor
Osborn
Polk
Baker
Wallace
Robinson
Takitaki
Tavai extension
Dugger extension
Onwenu extension
Stephenson extension

to name just the ones off the top of my head?
Can we blame him for all of those things which have been abject disasters?
Two or three of those moves over the course of a couple of years is enough to get your GM on the hot seat. ALL of those in ONE OFFSEASON?

I would definitely blame him for Okafor and Osborne. I agree with his re-signings of Barmore, Duggars, and Onwenu, and so did most of this board. Stephenson is a tougher call, although I believe he would have been much better behind a real OL, and he needs to resolve the fumbling issue, which came out of nowhere. I think Takitaki will end up being a good signing, he was just injured this year, but by all accounts was loved in Cleveland.

The rookies are another question altogether. If you applied your logic to every NFL team then every GM in the league would be fired, as the vast majority of those drafted after the first round don’t start or play much their rookie seasons, and most don’t make it at all. Which means they are all busts, and every GM is a failure. Whether this years class can be developed remains a question, and we will know better a year from now, just as we will know better after the coming season whether Wolf is doing a good job or not, because this should be a better free agent class than the dogshit available last year.


I appreciate the 6 months you gave Wolf to prove himself. That’s a totally reasonable amount of time for any new GM to turn around one of the worst team’s in football, especially when he inherited one of the best coaches and coaching staff’s in football. Hopefully, if they fire him, you will give the next GM as much time, especially since Wolf will have left him a franchise QB, which they didn’t have when he took over.

 

[Ian]

I would definitely blame him for Okafor and Osborne. I agree with his re-signings of Barmore, Duggars, and Onwenu, and so did most of this board. Stephenson is a tougher call, although I believe he would have been much better behind a real OL, and he needs to resolve the fumbling issue, which came out of nowhere. I think Takitaki will end up being a good signing, he was just injured this year, but by all accounts was loved in Cleveland.

I've mentioned this before, but I don't think those guys or some of the other ones were his first choice. I think they went into last spring completely hamstrung, given how things looked from an outside perspective, with Mac Jones & Bailey Zappe as quarterbacks, zero tight ends on the roster, and no real hope for being competitive in the immediate future.

That forced them to pick from the bottom of the barrel out of guys who didn't have better options. With no one better to pick from, the Patriots were then on the table among the list of places they'd be willing to go. Had Belichick been here, maybe that would have changed things, but once he was gone, it put them in tough shape.

Put me among those who didn't expect it to be as bad as it was, but it was a look at how the other half lived. Some might disagree, but the reality was the situation here was bad enough that the club was simply not an attractive landing spot for upper-tier guys who had better options. It sucks, but it sort of is what it is. At the same time, they needed bodies in here, and my one gripe with Wolf was not reading the tea leaves with Okorafor after what he pulled in Pittsburgh. But again, had one of the other guys been willing to come here, maybe that signing doesn't happen to begin with. They needed as many tackles as they could get ahead of camp.

Takitaki was a good player in Cleveland, so I agree on that signing. And I'm pretty sure had they not re-signed Stevenson or Onwenu, if those two guys had gone the other way and been successful, people would have crucified Wolf for not keeping them. Onwenu had an off year, but I wouldn't close the book on him yet, and Stevenson will have a full offseason to now realize he really does have a fumbling issue. I think he thought last year was a fluke. Clearly, it wasn't.

Meanwhile, one other move of note was the fact people were killing Wolf at the start of the year for moving Matthew Judon, and that ended up being the right move. The question now is what they'll ultimately turn that into.

I think March is going to be a better gauge in terms of free agency and I think they'll have a better shot this time around, especially with Vrabel as coach. With Vrabel - a coach who has had past success - and Maye, players should view them as a club with a defense that will be better with a real coordinator, and it's a shot at making the playoffs and being competitive.

Their free agency haul started the ire when it came to Wolf, but I don't know how much of that can truly be on him given that they were in on some of the big names, and those guys didn't want to come here. We saw it again with Aiyuk. It's frustrating, but the Patriots were just used as leverage each time.

As for the draft picks, the verdict remains out on a few guys:

Round 1:​

#3 Overall – Drake Maye, QB – North Carolina

Round 2:​

#34 Overall (Traded to LA Chargers)

#37 Overall (via LA Chargers) – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR -Washington

Round 3:​

#68 Overall – Caedan Wallace, OT – Penn State

Round 4:​

#103 Overall – Layden Robinson, OL – Texas A&M

#110 Overall (via LA Chargers) – Javon Baker, WR – UCF

Round 5:​

#137 Overall (Traded to LA Chargers)

Round 6:​

#180 Overall – Marcellas Dial, CB – South Carolina

#193 Overall (via Jaguars) – Joe Milton, QB – Tennessee

Round 7:​

#231 Overall (via Bears) – Jaheim Bell, TE – Florida State

The guys in blue are guys who have proven they can start, while the guys in green can play, we just don't know to what extent. Dial spent the year on ST but had some decent moments on defense yesterday. Wallace was hurt, and yesterday was his first real playing time since the start of the year before he was injured but the verdict is still out. He's not a bad player and I think as he gets stronger, he'll be a factor next year at RT.

The guys in purple are TBD. Polk is obviously the toughest because of where he was taken, and I've mentioned a few times that when it comes to receivers, it would be nice if they'd stay within the SEC and save the smaller schools for later-round, guys. While I'm disappointed with how things went compared to McConkey - who everyone will forever be upset about, I'm sure - unlike Thornton, I wouldn't write Polk off yet. Hopefully Vrabel - if that's who is ultimately hired - can bring in a coach who can turn both him and Baker around. I also liked what little we saw from Bell, and having watched him in college, I think there's more they'll see from him.

But other than the two WRs, it's not like this class was completely horrible. As others have mentioned, no teams nail every pick, and you can't judge a draft class after one season. Many didn't like last year's class either, and year two yielded better results from Mapu, Sow, Boutte, Bolden, etc. And Jake Andrews will be back in 2025 and he showed a lot of promise. So we'll see. Wolf is here at least through April given that the scouts have been working throughout the college season, so he's likely not going anywhere until after that.

We'll see if him working with someone other than Mayo might also see different types of guys brought in. I haven't dug back through Tennessee's picks during Vrabel's final two seasons, so it will be interesting to see who they took and how those guys have turned out.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I've mentioned this before, but I don't think those guys or some of the other ones were his first choice. I think they went into last spring completely hamstrung, given how things looked from an outside perspective, with Mac Jones & Bailey Zappe as quarterbacks, zero tight ends on the roster, and no real hope for being competitive in the immediate future.

That forced them to pick from the bottom of the barrel out of guys who didn't have better options. With no one better to pick from, the Patriots were then on the table among the list of places they'd be willing to go. Had Belichick been here, maybe that would have changed things, but once he was gone, it put them in tough shape.

Put me among those who didn't expect it to be as bad as it was, but it was a look at how the other half lived. Some might disagree, but the reality was the situation here was bad enough that the club was simply not an attractive landing spot for upper-tier guys who had better options. It sucks, but it sort of is what it is. At the same time, they needed bodies in here, and my one gripe with Wolf was not reading the tea leaves with Okorafor after what he pulled in Pittsburgh. But again, had one of the other guys been willing to come here, maybe that signing doesn't happen to begin with. They needed as many tackles as they could get ahead of camp.

Takitaki was a good player in Cleveland, so I agree on that signing. And I'm pretty sure had they not re-signed Stevenson or Onwenu, if those two guys had gone the other way and been successful, people would have crucified Wolf for not keeping them. Onwenu had an off year, but I wouldn't close the book on him yet, and Stevenson will have a full offseason to now realize he really does have a fumbling issue. I think he thought last year was a fluke. Clearly, it wasn't.

Meanwhile, one other move of note was the fact people were killing Wolf at the start of the year for moving Matthew Judon, and that ended up being the right move. The question now is what they'll ultimately turn that into.

I think March is going to be a better gauge in terms of free agency and I think they'll have a better shot this time around, especially with Vrabel as coach. With Vrabel - a coach who has had past success - and Maye, players should view them as a club with a defense that will be better with a real coordinator, and it's a shot at making the playoffs and being competitive.

Their free agency haul started the ire when it came to Wolf, but I don't know how much of that can truly be on him given that they were in on some of the big names, and those guys didn't want to come here. We saw it again with Aiyuk. It's frustrating, but the Patriots were just used as leverage each time.

As for the draft picks, the verdict remains out on a few guys:

Round 1:​

#3 Overall – Drake Maye, QB – North Carolina

Round 2:​

#34 Overall (Traded to LA Chargers)

#37 Overall (via LA Chargers) – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR -Washington

Round 3:​

#68 Overall – Caedan Wallace, OT – Penn State

Round 4:​

#103 Overall – Layden Robinson, OL – Texas A&M

#110 Overall (via LA Chargers) – Javon Baker, WR – UCF

Round 5:​

#137 Overall (Traded to LA Chargers)

Round 6:​

#180 Overall – Marcellas Dial, CB – South Carolina

#193 Overall (via Jaguars) – Joe Milton, QB – Tennessee

Round 7:​

#231 Overall (via Bears) – Jaheim Bell, TE – Florida State

The guys in blue are guys who have proven they can start, while the guys in green can play. Dial spent the year on ST but had some decent moments on defense yesterday. Wallace was hurt, and yesterday was his first real playing time since the start of the year before he was injured but the verdict is still out. He's not a bad player and I think as he gets stronger, he'll be a factor next year at RT.

The guys in purple are TBD. Polk is obviously the toughest because of where he was taken, and I've mentioned a few times that when it comes to receivers, it would be nice if they'd stay within the SEC and save the smaller schools for later-round, guys. While I'm disappointed with how things went compared to McConkey - who everyone will forever be upset about, I'm sure - unlike Thornton, I wouldn't write Polk off yet. Hopefully Vrabel - if that's who is ultimately hired - can bring in a coach who can turn both him and Baker around. I also liked what little we saw from Bell, and having watched him in college, I think there's more they'll see from him.

But other than the two WRs, it's not like this class was completely horrible. As others have mentioned, no teams nail every pick, and you can't judge a draft class after one season. Many didn't like last year's class either, and year two yielded better results from Mapu, Sow, Boutte, Bolden, etc. And Jake Andrews will be back in 2025 and he showed a lot of promise. So we'll see. Wolf is here at least through April given that the scouts have been working throughout the college season, so he's likely not going anywhere until after that.

We'll see if him working with someone other than Mayo might also see different types of guys brought in. I haven't dug back through Tennessee's picks during Vrabel's final two seasons, so it will be interesting to see who they took and how those guys have turned out.

Ian, I’m just taking a quick break from work, but I think we agree for the most part, and I know that anyone who disagrees with us is obviously wrong. I pity the fools who disagree . ( with props to Mr. T. )

I’ll get back to you later. Probably between sets where I bench 650 10-12 x. (6 Sets-Obviously)

 

[captain stone]

If true, then we're totally ****ed.

 

[captain stone]

I've mentioned this before, but I don't think those guys or some of the other ones were his first choice. I think they went into last spring completely hamstrung, given how things looked from an outside perspective, with Mac Jones & Bailey Zappe as quarterbacks, zero tight ends on the roster, and no real hope for being competitive in the immediate future.

That forced them to pick from the bottom of the barrel out of guys who didn't have better options. With no one better to pick from, the Patriots were then on the table among the list of places they'd be willing to go. Had Belichick been here, maybe that would have changed things, but once he was gone, it put them in tough shape.

Put me among those who didn't expect it to be as bad as it was, but it was a look at how the other half lived. Some might disagree, but the reality was the situation here was bad enough that the club was simply not an attractive landing spot for upper-tier guys who had better options. It sucks, but it sort of is what it is. At the same time, they needed bodies in here, and my one gripe with Wolf was not reading the tea leaves with Okorafor after what he pulled in Pittsburgh. But again, had one of the other guys been willing to come here, maybe that signing doesn't happen to begin with. They needed as many tackles as they could get ahead of camp.

Takitaki was a good player in Cleveland, so I agree on that signing. And I'm pretty sure had they not re-signed Stevenson or Onwenu, if those two guys had gone the other way and been successful, people would have crucified Wolf for not keeping them. Onwenu had an off year, but I wouldn't close the book on him yet, and Stevenson will have a full offseason to now realize he really does have a fumbling issue. I think he thought last year was a fluke. Clearly, it wasn't.

Meanwhile, one other move of note was the fact people were killing Wolf at the start of the year for moving Matthew Judon, and that ended up being the right move. The question now is what they'll ultimately turn that into.

I think March is going to be a better gauge in terms of free agency and I think they'll have a better shot this time around, especially with Vrabel as coach. With Vrabel - a coach who has had past success - and Maye, players should view them as a club with a defense that will be better with a real coordinator, and it's a shot at making the playoffs and being competitive.

Their free agency haul started the ire when it came to Wolf, but I don't know how much of that can truly be on him given that they were in on some of the big names, and those guys didn't want to come here. We saw it again with Aiyuk. It's frustrating, but the Patriots were just used as leverage each time.

As for the draft picks, the verdict remains out on a few guys:

Round 1:​

#3 Overall – Drake Maye, QB – North Carolina

Round 2:​

#34 Overall (Traded to LA Chargers)

#37 Overall (via LA Chargers) – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR -Washington

Round 3:​

#68 Overall – Caedan Wallace, OT – Penn State

Round 4:​

#103 Overall – Layden Robinson, OL – Texas A&M

#110 Overall (via LA Chargers) – Javon Baker, WR – UCF

Round 5:​

#137 Overall (Traded to LA Chargers)

Round 6:​

#180 Overall – Marcellas Dial, CB – South Carolina

#193 Overall (via Jaguars) – Joe Milton, QB – Tennessee

Round 7:​

#231 Overall (via Bears) – Jaheim Bell, TE – Florida State

The guys in blue are guys who have proven they can start, while the guys in green can play, we just don't know to what extent. Dial spent the year on ST but had some decent moments on defense yesterday. Wallace was hurt, and yesterday was his first real playing time since the start of the year before he was injured but the verdict is still out. He's not a bad player and I think as he gets stronger, he'll be a factor next year at RT.

The guys in purple are TBD. Polk is obviously the toughest because of where he was taken, and I've mentioned a few times that when it comes to receivers, it would be nice if they'd stay within the SEC and save the smaller schools for later-round, guys. While I'm disappointed with how things went compared to McConkey - who everyone will forever be upset about, I'm sure - unlike Thornton, I wouldn't write Polk off yet. Hopefully Vrabel - if that's who is ultimately hired - can bring in a coach who can turn both him and Baker around. I also liked what little we saw from Bell, and having watched him in college, I think there's more they'll see from him.

But other than the two WRs, it's not like this class was completely horrible. As others have mentioned, no teams nail every pick, and you can't judge a draft class after one season. Many didn't like last year's class either, and year two yielded better results from Mapu, Sow, Boutte, Bolden, etc. And Jake Andrews will be back in 2025 and he showed a lot of promise. So we'll see. Wolf is here at least through April given that the scouts have been working throughout the college season, so he's likely not going anywhere until after that.

We'll see if him working with someone other than Mayo might also see different types of guys brought in. I haven't dug back through Tennessee's picks during Vrabel's final two seasons, so it will be interesting to see who they took and how those guys have turned out.

Are you, like, related to Ron Wolf's boy or something? The two WRs & the two OLmen ALL ****ing SUCK.

 

[archstanton543]

zero tight ends on the roster,

Hunter Henry = chopped liver, apparently.

 

[KCSVEN]

I'd love to know which teams people think are historically great drafters?
Analyses shows the Patriots draft above average from the 3rd to the 7th round.

It's the 1st and 2nd round where they struggle, but they also spent many of those years drafting low in the first round.
Pre-2021 BB made the picks. N'Keal Harry in 2019 he picked over the 2 guys the scouts wanted due to a personal relationship with a coach in college. How collaborative was the process in 2021 forward? Not sure but BB made final call.
2021-2024 Wolf involved drafts

2021: 1-Mac Jones-Miss; 2-Barmore-Hit
2022:1-Cole Strange-Miss; 2-Tyquan-Miss
2023: 1-Christian Gonzalez-Hit; Keion White-Hit
2024: 1-Drake Maye-Hit; Polk-Miss

1st round: 50% hit rate (League average 50% though a top 3 pick is 60% so say 55%)
2nd round: 50% Hit rate: League average 35%
3-7th round + UDFA: as mentioned they are above average in success rate

Basically, they missed the 2022 draft, yes, they missed the Polk pick but that's 1 pick. 2021 and 2022 they missed first round picks and were drafting 15 and originally 21. Should have hit on 1, mainly 2022 they screwed up.
In 2021 after Mac Jones selection at 15 Najee Harris is the only first round pick to make a pro bowl. Was a weak draft and the covid year which made analysis difficult.
2022 draft was the disaster draft which started with the trade down (historically on average trade downs bad, trade up good) which is a bad strategy to begin with, but one BB loved. S was that BB mainly, how much Wolf input? 3 future pro bowlers went from 24-26 and Trent McDuffie was the selection at 21. The biggest issue is Cole Strange was rated by most scouts a 3rd round pick and the consensus is very good on a percentage basis of putting guys in the proper rounds. You NEVER over-draft the consensus by 2 rounds. 1 maybe. Again, not using analytics hurt them.
TT in round 2 was bad, a receiver that can't release of the line. This ad the Polk pick shows they need to overhaul there WR scouting. WR scouting is not hard. Separation #1, YAC #2, Release #3. The other attributes are already factored in by the consensus round grade given these players. TT and Polk did not meet the requirements of a successful receiver.

If they don't take Strange in 2022, even with taking Thornton, and take one of the other prospects just taken with or after the original 21st pick the Patriots would be above average drafters since 2021.

The 2022 draft in totality was just a horrible draft. They got Marcus Jones and Cole Strange (way too early). They had 7 picks from 4-7 and missed on all. Percentage wise they should have hit on 1 so that's not as big a killer as you think. They did sign UDFA Brenden Schooler
All the Patriots had to do was 2 things that analytics show:
-Don't draft anyone more than 1 round earlier than consensus
-Only daft WR with good separation #'s and solid YAC.

If They followed those 2 rules, they would be among the league's best drafters in terms of hit rate.

I would argue you change the Cole Strange Pick and the drafts have been overall above average compared to other teams.
People over-estimate the success other teams have in the draft and underestimate the Patriots due to a couple of misses.

 

[PapaTrips]

We're all intitled to our opinion and I agree with the Captain, Wolf needs to go.. I awoke this morning to an articule by Wolf suggesting that the failure of drafting Polk lies in the lack of internal development. He means that the coaching staff failed. I agree the staff did and does stink but there is no way on earth that his selection of Polk in place of McKonky can be justified. He goes on to mention that the Kraft's will have to fix the personnel missteps. Not sure if he includes himself in the thought.....

 

[Ian]

Hunter Henry = chopped liver, apparently.

He was a free agent last March and not officially on the roster. All of their tight ends - at the time - were unsigned.

 

[upstater1]

I am going to give Wolf another chance: multiple players not developing is on the Coaching. Let's see how Polk - Wallace - Baker and Robinson looks with better Coaching. I am not going to totally give up on the 24 Draft Class pass Drake Maye given the pathetic Coaching.

Robinson looks decent and looks like he might develop.

Polk and Wallace never will.

Baker has the abilities but he also has Jack Jones's brain.

 

[upstater1]

I'd love to know which teams people think are historically great drafters?
Analyses shows the Patriots draft above average from the 3rd to the 7th round.

It's the 1st and 2nd round where they struggle, but they also spent many of those years drafting low in the first round.
Pre-2021 BB made the picks. N'Keal Harry in 2019 he picked over the 2 guys the scouts wanted due to a personal relationship with a coach in college. How collaborative was the process in 2021 forward? Not sure but BB made final call.
2021-2024 Wolf involved drafts

2021: 1-Mac Jones-Miss; 2-Barmore-Hit
2022:1-Cole Strange-Miss; 2-Tyquan-Miss
2023: 1-Christian Gonzalez-Hit; Keion White-Hit
2024: 1-Drake Maye-Hit; Polk-Miss

1st round: 50% hit rate (League average 50% though a top 3 pick is 60% so say 55%)
2nd round: 50% Hit rate: League average 35%
3-7th round + UDFA: as mentioned they are above average in success rate

Basically, they missed the 2022 draft, yes, they missed the Polk pick but that's 1 pick. 2021 and 2022 they missed first round picks and were drafting 15 and originally 21. Should have hit on 1, mainly 2022 they screwed up.
In 2021 after Mac Jones selection at 15 Najee Harris is the only first round pick to make a pro bowl. Was a weak draft and the covid year which made analysis difficult.
2022 draft was the disaster draft which started with the trade down (historically on average trade downs bad, trade up good) which is a bad strategy to begin with, but one BB loved. S was that BB mainly, how much Wolf input? 3 future pro bowlers went from 24-26 and Trent McDuffie was the selection at 21. The biggest issue is Cole Strange was rated by most scouts a 3rd round pick and the consensus is very good on a percentage basis of putting guys in the proper rounds. You NEVER over-draft the consensus by 2 rounds. 1 maybe. Again, not using analytics hurt them.
TT in round 2 was bad, a receiver that can't release of the line. This ad the Polk pick shows they need to overhaul there WR scouting. WR scouting is not hard. Separation #1, YAC #2, Release #3. The other attributes are already factored in by the consensus round grade given these players. TT and Polk did not meet the requirements of a successful receiver.

If they don't take Strange in 2022, even with taking Thornton, and take one of the other prospects just taken with or after the original 21st pick the Patriots would be above average drafters since 2021.

The 2022 draft in totality was just a horrible draft. They got Marcus Jones and Cole Strange (way too early). They had 7 picks from 4-7 and missed on all. Percentage wise they should have hit on 1 so that's not as big a killer as you think. They did sign UDFA Brenden Schooler
All the Patriots had to do was 2 things that analytics show:
-Don't draft anyone more than 1 round earlier than consensus
-Only daft WR with good separation #'s and solid YAC.

If They followed those 2 rules, they would be among the league's best drafters in terms of hit rate.

I would argue you change the Cole Strange Pick and the drafts have been overall above average compared to other teams.
People over-estimate the success other teams have in the draft and underestimate the Patriots due to a couple of misses.

Great post, and I agree 99% but I would only add two things to the Strange pick. He was taken at the end of the 1st round, and there were articles (I believe Callahan in the Herald) about the Patriots admitting they took him too early, but they were trying desperately to trade down again from 30 and had no offers from anyone, so they were forced to take the highest guy they had graded. If, for instance, they knew he was really just a mid second round value, that's not far off from the 3rd round at all. Rather than being 2 rounds early, they really graded him just 15 picks earlier than the consensus, and if he becomes a better than average starter going forward, the pick is not a miss at all.

If you look at that 2nd round, there were 3 excellent running backs taken, but you can't say going forward that any other player than the running backs will absolutely be a better value than Strange. The second round was weak, unless you needed a running back.

 

[KCSVEN]

Great post, and I agree 99% but I would only add two things to the Strange pick. He was taken at the end of the 1st round, and there were articles (I believe Callahan in the Herald) about the Patriots admitting they took him too early, but they were trying desperately to trade down again from 30 and had no offers from anyone, so they were forced to take the highest guy they had graded. If, for instance, they knew he was really just a mid second round value, that's not far off from the 3rd round at all. Rather than being 2 rounds early, they really graded him just 15 picks earlier than the consensus, and if he becomes a better than average starter going forward, the pick is not a miss at all.

If you look at that 2nd round, there were 3 excellent running backs taken, but you can't say going forward that any other player than the running backs will absolutely be a better value than Strange. The second round was weak, unless you needed a running back.

What I’ve learned looking at history. The second round is a great place to draft running backs and centers amongst a couple other positions.
Trading back a couple spots in the first round isn’t a great strategy historically, generally you’re better off taking a higher pick in the first round

The Patriots did two wrong things in that draft they went for a trade down, and they went for a wide receiver in the second round where the hit rate is not quite as good, especially in a weak draft

Of course, these are all percentages are not guarantees

This doesn’t address the success or failure in free agency which I haven’t really looked at

 

[Ian]

Hunter Henry = chopped liver, apparently.

Here's a list of the free agents:

2024 Patriots Free Agency: Player Signings, Departures

Stay updated with the latest on the 2024 Patriots free agency, including key player signings and departures.

www.patsfans.com

I don't know what you're disagreeing with...unless it's just the general premise of what I said in the other post, which is fine. But all of their tight ends were not under contract heading into the offseason.

Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, and Pharaoah Brown were all free agents. Hooper agreed to a one-year deal, and Henry eventually was brought back on a three-year extension. Gesicki and Brown obviously signed elsewhere (Cincinnati, Seattle).

 

[archstanton543]

Here's a list of the free agents:

2024 Patriots Free Agency: Player Signings, Departures

Stay updated with the latest on the 2024 Patriots free agency, including key player signings and departures.

www.patsfans.com

I don't know what you're disagreeing with...unless it's just the general premise of what I said in the other post, which is fine. But all of their tight ends were not under contract heading into the offseason.

Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, and Pharaoah Brown were all free agents. Hooper agreed to a one-year deal, and Henry eventually was brought back on a three-year extension. Gesicki and Brown obviously signed elsewhere (Cincinnati, Seattle).

You're splitting hairs is what I disagree with it.

Yes, you're technically correct, which is not the best kind of correct.

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[mgteich]

I'd love to know which teams people think are historically great drafters?
Analyses shows the Patriots draft above average from the 3rd to the 7th round.

It's the 1st and 2nd round where they struggle, but they also spent many of those years drafting low in the first round.
Pre-2021 BB made the picks. N'Keal Harry in 2019 he picked over the 2 guys the scouts wanted due to a personal relationship with a coach in college. How collaborative was the process in 2021 forward? Not sure but BB made final call.
2021-2024 Wolf involved drafts

2021: 1-Mac Jones-Miss; 2-Barmore-Hit
2022:1-Cole Strange-Miss; 2-Tyquan-Miss
2023: 1-Christian Gonzalez-Hit; Keion White-Hit
2024: 1-Drake Maye-Hit; Polk-Miss

1st round: 50% hit rate (League average 50% though a top 3 pick is 60% so say 55%)
2nd round: 50% Hit rate: League average 35%
3-7th round + UDFA: as mentioned they are above average in success rate

Basically, they missed the 2022 draft, yes, they missed the Polk pick but that's 1 pick. 2021 and 2022 they missed first round picks and were drafting 15 and originally 21. Should have hit on 1, mainly 2022 they screwed up.
In 2021 after Mac Jones selection at 15 Najee Harris is the only first round pick to make a pro bowl. Was a weak draft and the covid year which made analysis difficult.
2022 draft was the disaster draft which started with the trade down (historically on average trade downs bad, trade up good) which is a bad strategy to begin with, but one BB loved. S was that BB mainly, how much Wolf input? 3 future pro bowlers went from 24-26 and Trent McDuffie was the selection at 21. The biggest issue is Cole Strange was rated by most scouts a 3rd round pick and the consensus is very good on a percentage basis of putting guys in the proper rounds. You NEVER over-draft the consensus by 2 rounds. 1 maybe. Again, not using analytics hurt them.
TT in round 2 was bad, a receiver that can't release of the line. This ad the Polk pick shows they need to overhaul there WR scouting. WR scouting is not hard. Separation #1, YAC #2, Release #3. The other attributes are already factored in by the consensus round grade given these players. TT and Polk did not meet the requirements of a successful receiver.

If they don't take Strange in 2022, even with taking Thornton, and take one of the other prospects just taken with or after the original 21st pick the Patriots would be above average drafters since 2021.

The 2022 draft in totality was just a horrible draft. They got Marcus Jones and Cole Strange (way too early). They had 7 picks from 4-7 and missed on all. Percentage wise they should have hit on 1 so that's not as big a killer as you think. They did sign UDFA Brenden Schooler
All the Patriots had to do was 2 things that analytics show:
-Don't draft anyone more than 1 round earlier than consensus
-Only daft WR with good separation #'s and solid YAC.

If They followed those 2 rules, they would be among the league's best drafters in terms of hit rate.

I would argue you change the Cole Strange Pick and the drafts have been overall above average compared to other teams.
People over-estimate the success other teams have in the draft and underestimate the Patriots due to a couple of misses.

Yes, the patriots have struggled in picks from the middle of the first until the end of the second, the sweet spot where Belichick made his personal choices and didn't do well at all. With later choices (and with the top of the first), Bill did better than others.

 

[Wozzy]

#Collaboration



But it never happened, that's what the haters here told us.... right?

 

[captain stone]

#Collaboration



But it never happened, that's what the haters here told us.... right?

Both of the dudes in those two pictures really ****ing Suck. I wouldn't have Either of them Anywhere Near my organization.